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0 1987 Pergamon Journals Ltd.

Trampn. Res.-A Vol. ZIA. No. 1. pp. 27-38. 19~37

Printed in Great Britain.

IDENTIFICATION OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

APPLICATIONS IN AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL
GEOFFREY D. GOSLING
Institute of Transportation Studies, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, U.S.A.
(Received 11 November 1985; in revisedform 9 May 1986)
Ahstmet-Artificial intelligence consists of a broad range of computer science techniques directed at
such problems as pattern matching, language processing and solving highly complex, ill-defined problems.
The paper briefly reviews the current state of development of the artificial intelligence field and explores
how these techniques might be applied to air traffic control. Seven possible control strategies are identified, ranging from visual and electronic collision avoidance, through proposed enhancements of the
current U.S. air traffic control system, to strategies in which aircraft follow predetermined, deconflicted
flight paths. A large number of possible artificial intelligence applications are grouped into seven func-

tional areas, and ways in which they might be incorporated into the different control strategies are
discussed. The paper concludes by considering some of the implementation issues that will arise in the
course of applying artificial intelligence techniques to air traffic control

that may be of use to air traffic control. As air traffic

volumes increase, existing methods of air traffic control (ATC) begin to impose capacity limits on the
more heavily used airspace, while the need for larger
numbers of highly skilled controllers results in an
increasing cost of operating the ATC system. Faced
with the dual problems of increasing capacity while
restraining costs, the ATC authorities in both the
United States and elsewhere have proposed significantly increasing the level of automation of the ATC
system. The U.S. National Airspace System Plan
(FAA, 1984a.b) envisages progressively increasing
the role of the computerized decision support system
through staged implementation
of advanced automation features (the so-called AERA system) (FAA,
1981). Other research in Europe is directed at even
higher levels of automation (Eurocontrol,
1984).
While initial measures to increase levels of automation have been directed mainly at improvements
to the controller workstation and measures to improve data handling, it is not surprising that artificial
intelligence techniques have attracted considerable
interest for longer-term applications (Wesson, 1977;
Gosling and Hockaday, 1983,1984; Elias, 1985). This
paper describes some of the ways in which artificial
intelligence techniques might be applied to air traffic
control, and discusses a number of implementation
issues that will have to be addressed before such
techniques can become an accepted part of ATC
technology.

INTRODUCIION

Artificial intelligence is a term that has been used to

cover a broad range of techniques in computer science, directed at problems that are not easily solved
by traditional, numerical computation approaches.
While several definitions have been widely quoted,
that by Rich (1983) conveys the essence of the field:
Artificial Intelligence is the study of how to make computers
do things at which, at the moment, people are better.
The things to which Rich refers include such problems as pattern matching, language processing and
solving highly complex, ill-defined problems. In some
ways the term artificial intelligence (AI) is perhaps
unfortunate, since it may appear to offer capabilities
that do not in fact exist. Intelligence is clearly a desirable quality in many systems, and generally implies
the ability to recognize the important aspects of new
situations, to reason out what to do about them, and
to learn from past experience. Past success at programming computers to perform numerical calculations much faster and more reliably than humans
might therefore suggest that AI offers the prospect
of developing computer systems that can exhibit the
above-mentioned abilities, while operating much faster
and more reliably than humans-in
short to exhibit
superhuman performance. While there are computer
scientists for whom this remains a goal, we are presently a long way from achieving it, if indeed we ever
will. Dreyfus and Dreyfus (1985) argue that fundamental differences between humans and machines
mean that computers, for all their impressive speed
and reliability, will always remain shallow imitations
of true human intelligence.
These reservations notwithstanding,
recent advances in AI techniques appear to offer capabilities

THE FIELD OFARTIFlClALlNTELLIGENCE

Before considering how artificial intelligence techniques might be applied to air traffic control problems, it may be useful to briefly review the various
areas of AI and their current state of development.
27

28

GEOFFREY
D. GOSLING

Artificial intelligence deals both with developing

general methods for solving problems and with upplication of these methods to specific domains of interest (e.g. medicine), which may be termed AI techniques and AI applications, respectively.
AI techniques address such general problems as
knowledge representation,
search, automatic reasoning, planning and learning. AI applications use
these general techniques to program expert systems,
natural language processors, speech and vision recognition systems and robots.
Knowledge representation is the basis of AI. The
way knowledge is represented in a computer implies
specific search strategies, reasoning and learning
methods. There is no current consensus as to which
of the various methods of representing knowledge is
better, and it is quite likely that each method is more
appropriate for a particular class of problems. Search
techniques provide a means to efficiently identify
relevant information in a large knowledge base or to
examine large numbers of possible solutions to a
problem in an organized way. Reasoning techniques
utilize search and knowledge representation to develop inferences from given facts. At the top level of
AI techniques is machine learning, which uses the
lower level methods to enable the computer to enhance its knowledge base and solve problems.
AI applications develop from this base of AI techniques. Expert systems provide a way to incorporate
the experience of human experts in a computer system that can solve problems in a specific domain, or
provide the user with advice. Applications include
natural language processing, speech understanding
and computer vision. Robotics involves the creation
of machines that can perform tasks with some degree
of autonomy, and utilizes techniques from all other
areas of AI. Today, robotics focuses mainly on planning, problem solving and computer vision; while
communication with robots in spoken language should
be possible in the future.
Each of these areas is extensively described in the
many texts that provide an overview of the field of
artificial intelligence (e.g. Barr and Feigenbaum, 1981;
Rich, 1983), and have been summarized by Hockaday and Okseniuk (1985) from the standpoint of ATC
applications. The field of AI is the subject of intense
current interest, with the military in particular devoting large sums of money to AI research (Marsh,
1984b), and there are likely to be considerable advances in technical capabilities in the near future.
Knowledge representation,
search and automatic
reasoning techniques are well recognized areas of AI.
These techniques have been applied in existing computer expert systems and systems which perform natural language processing. Current work on techniques of knowledge representation,
reasoning and
search concentrates on:
(1) systematizing existing methods;
(2) developing new methods for common sense
knowledge representation and for approximate reasoning;

(3) developing methods for automatic learning and

knowledge acquisition.
In the future, methods for knowledge representation and its manipulation will be developed that
facilitate reasoning by analogy, and generalization
and abstraction of knowledge. The future development of AI techniques will include machine learning
and automatic acquisition of new knowledge. These
techniques will be incorporated into all other areas
of AI.
Expert systems appear to be the most rapidly developing area of AI at present. Several well-known
operational expert systems have been developed.
Among them are MOLGEN for developing molecular genetic experiments, Rl for configuring VAX
computer systems to customers needs, ADVISOR
for interpreting geological information and PUFF for
recommending treatment of pulmonary disorders. A
considerable number of software tools for developing
expert systems are available commercially today. Future development of expert systems will address improved ways of acquiring new knowledge (e.g. from
text or real-time data), or methods to improve their
performance on the basis of experience.
The natural language interface systems that are on
the market now are restricted to some subset of natural language. Usually they do not accept grammatically incorrect expressions, and they fail occasionally. Nevertheless, they are considered to be useful
systems. Several machine translation systems are also
available. They are primitive and do not compare
with human translation. They can, however, save the
human translator time, by providing rough (and
sometimes incorrect) draft machine translations for
review and correction.
Some commercial systems for isolated spoken word
recognition exist, that can recognize words from a
relatively small vocabulary with accuracies of up to
99.5%. They usually need to be trained to recognize the pronunciation of particular users. Development of systems with much larger vocabularies can
be expected in the near future. The problems of
recognizing continuous speech, or adjusting to differnt users, are more difficult and will take longer to
solve. Context information will be used to parse partially correct sentences. Later, this mechanism will
be used in systems that can understand spoken language in strictly limited domains.
Computer vision systems are now available that
recognize limited sets of objects. Future systems will
be able to recognize broader classes of objects and
utilize stereo-vision to obtain spatial information.
Robotics is another major area of AI research activity, due to the application to factory automation,
and is stimulating advances in computer vision and
machine learning. Some robots in factory production
lines can recognize when objects appear and decide
when to begin their activities. Considerable research
is also being directed at developing autonomous
moving robots.
Although AI is a relatively new field, it appears to

Artificial

intelligence in air traffic control

have enormous potential to enlarge,performance

in
many areas of human endeavor. Ak %ith any major
change, there are institutional and psychological barriers to its implementation; nevertheless, many practical applications are available today, and it seems
likely that these applications will expand rapidly in
the future.
APPLICATION

OF Al TECHNIQURS TO AIR

TRAFFIC CONTROL

In attempting to identify potential applications of

AI techniques to air traffic control, one may approach the question from two directions, either by
examining current and likely future AI capabilities
and asking where these might be applied in the ATC
domain, or by examining the problems being faced
by the ATC system and asking how might AI techniques help resolve these. Both approaches have their
strengths and drawbacks. While the first approach
sometimes has the appearance of a solution in search
of a problem, it may raise possibilities that might not
previously have been considered. On the other hand,
the second approach appears to offer immediately
implementable gains, although it is limited in scope
by the characteristics of the present ATC system. As
others have pointed out already, to gain the full advantage of increasing the level of automation made
possible by the use of AI (and other) techniques, it
may be necessary to radically change the way ATC
services are provided (Eurocon trol, 1984; Elias, 1985).
These changes could involve the navigation and communication
equipment required on aircraft, the
structure of the ATC organization and division of
airspace or the control rules used to maintain separation between aircraft.
The existing ATC system is nearly 50 years old,
having its origins in the late 1930s with aircraft reporting their positions by radio and air traffic controllers moving markers representing each aircraft
on large maps. The advent of radar in the 1940s
permitted much closer separations to be safely maintained, but the basic procedures remain unchanged
to this day. The introduction of computer automation in the 1960s and subsequently has been hugely
confined to data management (e.g. flight plan processing) and provision of improved .information on
displays. Very little actual control is performed by
the computer software, even to the level of suggesting options to the human controller. Nor is there
much differentiation in the tvpe or quality of control
service provided in different parts of the airspace,
except that no ATC service is available in some parts
or to aircraft not meeting quite restrictive equipment
requirement in other parts. While standardization of
the ATC system has obvious advantages in terms of
training both aircrew and controllers, these advantages are achieved at a very heavy cost. In 1983 FAA
projected that the facilities and equipment specified
in the U.S. National Airspace System Plan would
cost between 8.7 and 9 billion dollars over the first
10 years of the 20-year program (U.S. General Ac-

29

count,ipg Gffice,, 1983), a$rge part of which is for

rep&_&g c&&ut&eqttipt@nt and controller workstations (sector suites) at all Air Route Traffic
Control Centers (ARTCCs). Yet not all ARTCCs
face anything like the same level of traffic density or
complexity of airspace structure. Designing the
equipment and procedures for the entire U.S. ATC
system to meet the needs of, say, the New York
terminal airspace is not likely to be a very costeffective solution. This suggests that future AI applications might be implemented selectively, perhaps
initially in less critical areas to gain operational
experience, then later in those. areas where significant benefits can be realized. The usefulness of a
particular technique will depend on the control environment in which it is implemented. Conversely,
the availability of particular AI techniques may mean
that certain control strategies may become feasible
that are not at present possible.
Therefore in evaluating the potential applications
of AI techniques to air traffic control, a range of
possible control strategies should be considered, where
each control strategy defines an environment of control rules and procedures and the associated equipment requirements. For the purposes of evaluating
the application of AI techniques to ATC automation,
Gosling and Hockaday (1984) have defined seven
alternative strategies:
(1) See and avoid, in which each aircraft is responsible for identifying and avoiding other aircraft
through visual contact;
(2) Collision avoidance, in which on-board systems monitor the position of nearby aircraft electronically and provide flight crew guidance for evasive action;
(3) U.S. Today, in which ground based controllers
monitor aircraft with radar, supported by partially
automated data processing, and issue clearances by
radio;
(4) A ERA Stage 1, in which the current system is
supplemented by improved communcations and controller support functions;
(5) AERA Stage 2, in which the computer would
detect and resolve aircraft conflicts, automatically
generating the appropriate clearances;
(6) Deterministic, in which advanced aircraft flight
management systems would permit aircraft to follow
approved deconflicted four-dimensional flight paths,
with ATC intervention only to handle unplanned deviations;
(7) Integrated, in which deconflicted four-dimensional flight plans are adjusted on a real-time basis
to respond to changing conditions.
The nature of the AI techniques that may be applicable in each of these strategies may be quite different.
MOTIVATION FOR DEVRLOANG

AI APPLICATIONS

In view of the extensive amount of computer software that has already been developed for ATC ap-

GEOFFREYD. GOSLING

30

plications, using more conventional programming

techniques, and the established tradition of applying
operations research techniques to ATC problems, it
is relevant to ask what AI techniques may have to
offer that existing techniques do not.
There.are at least two answers to this question.
The first is that we will not know until we gain more
experience developing such applications. We do know
that ATC problems are often complex and illdefined, and it is not clear how successful conventional
approaches will be at solving them. Only by identifying application areas and using AI techniques to
develop prototype software which can be compared
with the more conventional software will we learn
how useful these techniques really are.
The second answer is more empirical and circumstantial. We observe applications of AI techniques
in widely different fields that show varying success
and note the similarity of some of the problems being
addressed to those that exist in ATC. We also note
the difficulties that are experienced adapting conventional techniques to some of these ATC problems. These observations are not surprising because,
after all, AI is the study of how to solve these sorts
of difficult problems on a computer. Nor should it
surprise us that some of the techniques we find under
the heading of AI have already been used in some
of the conventional
approaches. The field of AI
has been around since the early days of digital computers and AI researchers have been trying to program computers to perform basic human skills, skills
possessed by the creators of the conventional software. What AI research has done (and is continuing
to do) is to provide a framework within which these
techniques can be developed, formalized and made
available to applications programmers in a relatively
structured way, by means of established software
tools and techniques.
Thus AI techniques should not be viewed as a
radical departure from conventional software approaches, but rather as a set of techniques that have
application to the particular class of problems discussed above, involving knowledge representation,
searching, learning, etc. Identifying where in the ATC
system this class of problems occur is addressed in
the remainder of this paper.
To the extent that existing AI applications often
utilize software techniques that are not generally part
of conventional approaches, such as symbolic computation or list-processing languages, there may well
be difficult issues to be addressed in the integration
of these techniques into a conventional software environment.

IDENTWICATION

OP POTENIIAL

APPLICATION

AREAS

In general, ATC systems provide a number of quite

different functional areas within which AI techniques
may be applied. These include

(1) short term, or tactical, control of aircraft

movement;
(2) longer term, or strategic, management of traffic
flow;
(3) improve displays and information management;
(4) system configuration management;
(5) failure management and exception handling;
(6) controller, maintenance and supervisory personnel training;
(7) aircraft on-board equipment.

Although the first area tends to be the one that

most people think of when considering ways in which
AI techniques can be applied to ATC-an automated
system issuing bursts of digitally coded instructions
directly to aircraft under control-it
is likely that the
other areas will prove more fruitful for applying AI
techniques, at least in the foreseeable future. While
in principle a fully or partially automated control
system can be postulated, as has been done by Eurocontrol in their ARC 2CKIO
proposal (Eurocontrol,
1984) or by the FAA with the proposed AERA system (FAA: 1981,1984a, 1984b), the implementation
difficulties, some of which are discussed below, will
be extremely severe. It is likely to be much easier to
initially implement AI techniques in those areas that
are not directly concerned with the maintenance of
safe separation between aircraft.
However, one potential application of AI techniques to tactical control of aircraft that may produce
significant benefits in the short term is the implementation of intelligent assistance to controllers. This
might consist of a package of software functions utilizing expert system techniques that would operate
in conjunction with the existing radar display and
flight data processing software to assist the controller
by improving the presentation of information, issuing
alerts for required actions, generating recommendations and providing a capability for controllers to
execute routine functions automatically.
Such a
package could significantly reduce controller workload by reducing the amount of time that the controller needs to spend performing routine tasks, and
enhance system safety by supplementing the controllers monitoring function. It is well known that
monitoring complex systems for potential problems
is a task that humans do not alwaysdo well. Attention
levels drop during periods of inactivity, and it is easy
for controllers to become distracted by a problem in
one part of the system and fail to notice a second,
perhaps more serious, problem developing elsewhere. There is also the cognitive problem that humans tend to interpret what information they receive
in the light of what they expect to observe on the
basis of their current perception of the situation. This
can lead to problems of misinterpretation
or misunderstanding.
A large number of potential applications of AI
techniques to different ATC functions have been

31

Artificial intelligence in air traffic control

identified by various studies, and are summarized in

Table 1. Each of these areas is discussed in more
detail below.
1. Tactical conhol of aircraft movement
Attempts to identify ways in which AI techniques
can he used to assist human tactical controllers have

addressed both the provision of enhanced support

functions as well as the automation of routine tasks.
These techniques might be combined in a controller
associate -an expert system that could help reduce
controller workload and enhance safety by operating
in parallel with human monitoring and decision-making. The expert system could track aircraft positions
and alert controllers to potential decisions that may
have to be made, based on a representation of both
the controller and flight crew planning process. Increased use of advanced flight management systems
on aircraft, with the capability of flying fuel-efficient,
4D flight paths, will increase the complexity of the
tactical controllers task and may lead to much greater
variation in the flight paths that aircraft request or
fly. As an extension of this function, conflict probes
need to be developed that can look downstream into
the next sector and beyond, in order that controllers
can organize traffic efficiently and issue appropriate
clearances. lltese probes need to be coordinated with

decisions being taken in other sectors and should

anticipate Iikeiy future d,c$ms by other controllers
and flight I&&, as web as consider weather changes
and sector workload requirements. The combinatorial explosion of possible situations suggests that exhaustive search techniques are not appropriate and
that heuristic search or rule-based systems are more
promising. Other applications of intelligent assistance to reduce workload might include generation
of menus of alternative actions with recommendations, evaluation of controller generated alternatives
and automatic execution of routine functions such as
hand-offs.
In the longer term, as experience is gained with
using AI techniques to generate solutions to tactical
control problems, certain decision-making could be
fully automated, with human control reduced to a
supervisory function or intervention to handle exceptions (such as aircraft in distress). It would appear
reasonable that such techniques might be applied
initially in lightly loaded sectors, allowing controllers
to direct their attention to more complex problems.
A somewhat different application is the concept of
flexible control rules that vary in response to the
situation, rather than rely on set standards that have
to be learned abead of time. Advanced graphical
techniques would have to be developed to indicate

Table 1. Potential applications for AI in ATC

Area
1.

Tactical control of aircraft movement

Application
Alerts for potential decisions
Extended and coordinated probes
Menus of alternative actions with recommendations
Automatic execution of routine functions
Automated decision-making
Flexible control rules

2. Strategic management of traffic flow

Traffic routing
Improved interface with tactical control
Fuel analysis as part of control decisions
Deconflicted 4D flight plan generation
Demand responsive scheduling
Aircraft delay allocation
Airport capacity forecasts
Improved presentations of information

3. Improved displays and information management

Automatic clearance transfer

Voice synthesis and recognition

4. System configuration madagement

System configuration planning

Runway and airspace configuration management
System monitoring and crisis anticipation
Contingency planning

5. Failure management and exception handling

Failure recovery support and system

Configuration selection
System restoration
Major disruption response

6. Personnel training

Improved simulation techniques

Pseudo-pilot automation

7. Aircraft on-board equipment

Collision avoidance direction

Intelligent checklists
Procedure monitors
Computer vision

GEOFFREYD. GOSLING
32
the extent of the rules, with perhaps protected airclearances. Acknowledgment of the clearance could
space around an aircraft shown on the radar scope
be registered by the controller in the same way. If
in color. Thus the controllers might operate accordunacknowledged after a set interval the clearance
ing to a set of meta-rules, for example keep aircraft
could be automatically reissued. The system would
out of each others protected airspace, rather than
need to monitor the voice channel and recognize a
keep aircraft X miles apart.
break in communication to commence transmission.
The introduction of digital data links provides the
2. Strategic management of traffic flow
opportunity to significantly improve communicaThere is increasing interest by ATC agencies in
tions between aircraft and controller. In particular,
resolving capacity problems by better regulation of
messages can be posted on a text display for later
traffic flow and routing, rather than simply improving
reference, reducing errors of interpretation or recall.
the capability of handling whatever shows up. Since
However, both controllers and pilots have lots of
strategic control decision-making is generally being
other things to look at, and a voice supplement reperformed earlier in the process and under less prespeating critical messages may be a valuable addition.
sured conditions than tactical control, while the probThere is also the party-line problem, whereby pilems being addressed are generally more complex
lots rely on overhearing messages to other aircraft to
and less well-defined, there appears to be considerbuild a mental picture of the surrounding traffic. To
able potential for expert systems applications.
avoid cluttering the message display with commuThese include traffic flow routing to take account
nications between ATC and other aircraft, these could
of airspace capacity and sector workload constraints,
be abstracted and voice synthesized. In the future,
as well as weather conditions. Improved interface
more sophisticated systems might be able to select
with the tactical control positions would be able to
which messages to and from other aircraft were critanticipate developing probkms and route traffic flow
ical and only repeat those.
or delay flights to relieve capacity or workload constraints. For longer-term flow control, schedules and
4. System configuration management
flight plans might be assessed and revised, based on
The ATC system configuration is modified on both
improved understanding
of existing capacity cona short-term and long-term basis. In the short term,
straints; and a set of deconflicted 4D flight plans
changes in wind direction, traffic mix and facility
could be developed to minimize the need for tactical
availability influence decisions on which runways to
control. Where delays must be imposed on aircraft,
use and how to staff sectors or route traffic. In the
these could be done in an intelligent manner that
longer term, airspace can be resectorized, air routes
recognizes downstream consequences for the airchanged, navigation aids installed or moved and concraft, such as the ability to make scheduled connectrol responsibility reassigned to different facilities.
tions or the arrival time at a second capacity-conThese decisions require considerable expertise, and
strained airport.
are frequently made on a trial-and-error basis, or in
Improved forecasts of runway capacity could be
response to a system failure. It would seem that exdeveloped that better recognize airport specifics and
pert systems could be developed to assist shift suuncertainties for braking action, weather and other
pervisors, tower chiefs or airspace planners.
factors. A learning capability could be built in that
allows historical data to be assessed and the forecasting logic to be improved continually.
5. Failure management and exception handling
Design of the ATC system must provide backup
3. Improved displays and information management
capability to ensure the continued functioning of the
Improvement in the presentation of information
system under conditions of component failure or erto controllers is one area where substantial gains might
ror. However, it is precisely under these conditions
be made in the near term, and is the subject of intense
that the system is likely to be at its most stressed,
research and development activity as part of the FAAs
with heavy workloads on the controllers and system
sector suite procurement program.
managers, as they attempt to perform with limited
Application of AI techniques could include autoresources or abnormal procedures. Once the immatic configuration of diaplays to respond to the
mediate crisis of the failure or error has passed, the
current situation, highlighting of critical decisions and
system managers must establish a stable operating
the display of alternative (or recommended) courses
situation until restoration of the normal environment
of action. While improvements in display technology
can commence. Expert systems may provide valuable
do not necessarily require intelligence to be effecsupport under these conditions, given the limited
tive, problems can arise with information overload
experience of the system managers with any given
or displays that are too elaborate-an
effect that has
failure condition, and the other pressures they are
arisen with some aircraft cockpit electronic flight dislikely to be under at the time.
plays, and that pilots have come to term the Atari
There appear to be a number of potential applieffect (Wiener, 1985).
cations in the area of failure recovery management,
Voice synthesis could be used to reduce controller
where such support could be utilized:
workload by permitting push-button issuance of flight
(a) Monitoring the normal functioning of the sys-

33
Artificial intelligence in air traffic control
ATC system itself, and system managers may require
tern to identify developing situations that might lead
similar decision sutmort aids.
to a crisis if a component should fail er an operational
error occur. System managers could be alerted to the
6. Personnel training
nature of the potential crisis, so that they can forTraining and certifying personnel to operate and
mulate contingency plans, increase supervision to remaintain complex control systems are time-consumduce the likelihood of error or unload part of the
ing and expensive tasks. Expert systems developed
system to reduce the threat. Current work in progress
for operational use can be used to enhance training
for the FAA has suggested that it may be possible to
activities, either in conjunction with simulation exanticipate certain types of hardware failure by monercises or in computer-aided instruction. The capaitoring the performance of particular system funcbility of expert systems to display the reasoning proctions.
ess behind a conclusion is particularly valuable as an
(b) Developing contingency plans that could be
instructional tool. The combination of expert systems
offered to system managers in the event of a particand speech processing could be used to replace huular failure, to enable them to rapidly implement the
man pseudo-pilots in real-time system simulation,
recovery process. Given the large number of possible
reducing training costs and releasing personnel for
courses of action to cope with the situation, the camore productive duties.
pability of an expert system to dialogue with its user
and explain the logic behind a recommendation could
7. Aircraft on-board equipment
be particularly valuable to the system managers, both
Considerable attention is currently being directed
to reassure them that certain factors have been conat aircraft cockpit applications of AI by the U.S. Air
sidered and to inform them of facts that they might
Force, the Defense Advanced Research Projects
be unaware of or have overlooked.
Agency, and others (Gregory, 1984; Stein, 1985).
(c) Providing real-time support for system managers as they attempt to redeploy their resources to
Cockpit functions can be considered to fall into three
cope with a failure. This support could either be in
categories: aircraft systems operation; navigation,
the form of automated support of certain functions
collision avoidance and ATC compliance; and misto permit controllers to handle more traffic than would
sion performance. Although AI may be applicable
otherwise be possible, albeit at the cost of some tradeto all three categories, this paper is primarily conoffs such as efficiency or flight time, or to assist in
cerned with the second.
establishing the failure recovery process, given the
Voice and digital data link communications mancurrent capabilities of the system. In any complex
agement applications have been discussed above. The
system, it is unlikely that every component will be
Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS)
functional at any one time, since some failures (even
system currently under development (Boucek, et al.,
minor ones) may have already occurred and other
1985) could benefit from the application of AI techcomponents may be off-line for routine maintenance.
niques to extend the search and analysis activities to
Furthermore, the capability of any other part of the
cover multiple aircraft conflicts, larger time frames
system to handle reassignment of functions will deand larger menus of alternative actions. Intelligent
pend on the current traffic level it is handling. Therechecklists that respond to the current situation and
fore the failure recovery procedure is likely to be a
script-based procedure monitors that alert flight crews
complex timedependent
decision, in which an expert
to deviations from standard procedures could be used
system could guide the system managers in estabto reduce flight crew workloads and enhance safety.
lishing the system configuration during the recovery
Computer vision sensors, coupled with pattern recprocess.
ognition, may in the long term be able to supplement
human vision in see-and-avoid situations. Use of
(d) Providing support during system restoration to
normal operating mode following a failure. Once the
wavelengths and sensors outside the visible spectrum
might extend VFR capabilities into some instrument
failed components have been repaired or replaced,
meteorological conditions.
it is necessary to determine how to restore the system
from the condition it is operating in during the failure
to its normal operating environment, including the
APPLICATION TO DWFRRRNT CONTROL STRATRGIRS
timing of any reallocation of control responsibilities
As discussed above, the potential usefulness of any
and restoring or updating any computer data bases
particular AI techniques will depend on the control
lost in the failure. These functions have to be perstrategy in which it is implemented. Likewise, the
formed while controlling traffic in real-time.
effectiveness and applicability of a particular control
In addition to failures of the control system itself,
strategy may depend on the extent to which particthe ATC system has to be able to respond to major
ular AI techniques can be incorporated. It appears
disruptions to the air transportation system that are
that artificial intelligence techniques may provide a
caused by events such as closure of a major airport
quantum change in the potential for incorporating
due to weather. Because of the highly tactical nature
computer support into control system automation,
of the problem, at least in the first hour or two after
radically restructuring the human/machine
relation.
the disruption, the impact on air traffic flow bears a
As with all such changes, the true potential lies not
strong similarity to that resulting from a failure in the

34

GEOFFREYD. GOSLING

in doing the same old thing in a slightly better way,

but in taking advantage of the opportunity to achieve
order of magnitude improvements by approaching
the problem in a quite different way.
The following sections describe how various AI
techniques might be incorporated into the seven alternative control strategies discussed above. While
many of the potential applications suggested may
require considerable increases in computer processing capabilities, the current pace of development indicates that improvements of several orders of magnitude may be expected in the foreseeable future. At
the same time, the necessary software techniques will
require extensive research and development, and many
of the suggested applications could take years or decades to realize.
Strategy l-See and avoid
In this strategy there is no tactical control of individual aircraft, which operate according to visual
flight rules (VFR). AI-based systems could be used
to monitor filed flight plans or radar data to identify
times and places where either this strategy is effective, or where risk is high enough that the strategy is
inappropriate. Expert systems could be used to significantly enhance the quality of the service and level
of automation of Flight Service Stations.
An expert system might be developed that could
assess historical data on traffic density and characteristics on different routes, assess current and forecast weather, search alternative routes between origin and destination for particular aircraft and identify
trade-offs between fuel consumption, flight time and
risk. Based on an internal representation of the aircraft operators vahre system for the relative importance of different measures of effectiveness, the system could recommend a preferred route and respond
to questions concerning the rationale and alternatives. Reports of routes flown could provide a data
base for improved decisions on future flight plans.
Heuristic mles could be developed to limit the route
search process, utilizing a knowledge base derived
from interviews with pilots, controllers, flight service
personnel, simulation and/or case histories.
Computer vision offers some interesting possibilities. While it appears unlikely that computer vision
technology will approach human performance in the
foreseeable future, if ever; the development of a reliable visual pattern recognition technique, combined with low-cost sensor technology, could significantly improve the performance of see-and-avoid
techniques. The system would be in operation continously, in contrast to the pilot who must also devote
time to aircraft control and navigation, and could
scan directions obscured from the pilot. Sensors located in several locations around the aircraft could
provide a level of visual surveillance not possible
today and would not require other aircraft to have
any special equipment in order to be detected. These
sensors might operate in several wavelengths, including visual and infrared and also provide stereo-

scopiccapability. Whether such an application would

ever be cost effective compared with other traffic
alert technologies would depend on the relative costs
of the sensors and data processing requirements.
Although AI is usually considered in the context
of positive control (IFR), it also appears to have the
capability of significantly improving both the safety
and efficiency of VFR flight.
Strategy 2-Collision avoidance
The see-and-avoid techniques discussed in Strategy 1 rely first on visual identification of other aircraft
and then on pilot action to resolve any conflicts. Replacement or supplementation of visual reference by
electronic scanning and/or replacement or supplementation of pilot conflict resolution by automatic
conflict resolution are all amenable to AI applications.
Several alternative technologies are available for
electronic identification of aircraft, and these open
the opportunity for extending see-and-avoid types of
control strategy into instrument weather conditions.
Whether based on radar, radio transponders, satellite position finding or other techniques, these technologies provide information on the relative speed
and position of nearby aircraft. Heuristic searches
could be conducted to identify and select aircraft
trajectories that satisfy stated measures of performance including the minimbation of collision risk. Such
searches appear to be feasible with AI techniques
available today or in the near future.
Research is underway at NASA and other locations to develop techniques for cockpit display of
traffic information (CDTI) based on a variety of sensors, including ground based radar. The appropriate
display of complex information in a noncritical situation and possible resolution strategies appear to
be areas where AI techniques could be applied.
Future TCAS development offers an opportunity
for use of AI in implementing automatic instructions
when needed to avert a collision. Current forms of
TCAS prototypes provide only vertical evasion guidance from a single conflicting aircraft. AI might provide the basis for more sophisticated systems that
provide a wider menu of alternative evasive maneuvers and that consider more than one aircraft.
Strategy 3-U.S. today
It is clear that the current ATC system, which emphasizes tactical human ground-based control, could
benefit from some AI techniques. Each human control function that uses some form of computer assistance today can benefit from AI. In addition, some
functions that are totally manual today could benefit
from partial automation that involves AI.
The capacity of the current ATC system is often
limited either by controller workload or by uncertainties concerning aircraft status and intentions.
Further automation of data support functions and
inclusion of additional predictive capability and menus
of alternative control measures would help alleviate

Artificial intelligence in air traffic control

both the workload and the uncertainties. AERA (see

Strategies 4 and 5 below) represents one approach
to this problem.
One alternative would be to provide suggestions
for control instiuctions directly on the existing display, perhaps in the forms of graphical information
such as a moving box that represents a target for the
controller to follow or suggested control phraseology
to achieve desired flight paths. Knowledge representation techniques could facilitate development of appropriate phraseology, and heuristic-based search
techniques could facilitate the selection of appropriate graphical information.
Another possibility is the use of voice recognition
and speech synthesis techniques to reduce the communications workload on the controller, or reduce
the ambiguities of voice communications by providmg a redundant data link. These technologies appear
to be developing at a rate that could make automatic
voice links for the limited jargon of ATC feasible in
the foreseeable future.
AI could also be helpful in tailoring computer sup
port functions to the needs of a particular control
position. It is possible to envisage a wide range of
such support functions which might include profile
or 3D displays; color displays that indicate aircraft
speed, altitude, etc.; menus of alternative actions;
data on upstream and downstream sector conditions;
and automatic hands-off execution. Machine leammg and expert systems techniques could be combined
with cognitive models of the control task to vary the
support functions in response to changing conditions
and controller preferences.
Runway configuration management (the selection
of appropriate runways for arrivals and departures)
1scurrently performed manually. Development work
has been performed on a prototype automated configuration management system for Chicago OHare
tntemational
Airport. Response to real-time variations in weather and demand is problematical, and
expert systems may help in producing satisfactory
solutions.
It is clear from the above examples that several AI
techniques might be applied to improve the current
ATC system, without necessarily evolving along the
path towards any of the strategies described below.
Strategy 4-AERA Stage 1
This initial stage of AERA involves the use of
algorithms that probe along potential aircraft trajectories and test for con5icts with other aircraft. One
limitation of this technique is that probes into adjacent sectors are not coordinated, and therefore airspace may be allocated (by the probe process) that
appears vacant but in practice is also planned to be
used by aircraft either already in the probed sector
or from a third sector. In addition, the probe examines only one prespecified route, rather than a
menu of alternative routes that have similar performance characteristics. Extensions of current AI techniques are apparently capable of expanding the search

35

by the conflict probe, and also coordinating probes

and flight paths between sectors.
Fuel &i&iti@tioti +&&ns
could be built into
the strategic planning activities, for example, to produce recommended conflict resolutions that meet
prespecified fuel-based criteria.
The interfaces of AERA and the air route traffic
control centers with other centers, terminals and central 5ow control could all be improved by using AI
techniques. Control actions that conform with external constraints such as metering rates could be
recommended automatically.
Strategy 5-AERA Stage 2
The second stage of AERA involves additional
assistance to the controller in the form of automatic
resolution of some traffic conflicts. The details of the
required software for AERA Stage 2 have yet to be
developed, and it appears that AI techniques could
have a large role to play in making Stage 2 feasible.
In particular it is likely that the controller will not
accept AERA Stage 2 control recommendations unless it is possible to interrogate the software and obtain reasons why the recommended action is preferred over other alternatives (including one that may
be preferred by the controller). An alternative is for
the controller to ask the computer to evaluate a spe
cific controller generated solution, to identify any
unanticipated weaknesses.
Expert systems have the capability of providing
this dialogue, and heuristic searches may be used to
help the expert system examine a reasonable set of
alternative control actions.
Strategy &-Detemindic
In this strategy, 4D flight plans are reviewed and
approved that do not con5ict with other aircraft.
Aircraft must then follow the approved plan within
specified tolerances, and conformance monitoring is
performed en route. The selection on a national basis
of a set of 5ight plans that are decon5icted from each
other is a complex process with an infinite set of
alternatives. A search must be performed that both
considers a reasonable set of alternatives and assesses
the measures of effectiveness for each flight.
In addition to the primary set of 4D flight plans,
alternate (backup) night plans must also be developed to permit the safe handling of nonconforming
aircraft. The development of the primary set of Bight
plans must be done in a way that permits the creation
of feasible alternative flight plans for every aircraft.
Algorithms for such a search do not exist today
and may be difficult to develop. AI techniques that
limit the scope of the search while still attaining satisfactory measures of effectiveness are available in
elementary form, but much detailed development
would be necessary. The most difficult part of the
development would be in the area of machine leaming. It would be desirable that experience from previous days of flight (from real world data or from
simulations) be used to improve the efficiency of
future plans.

GEOFFREY D. GOSLING

36
Strategy 74ntegrated

This strategy extends the deterministic concept by

permitting updates to flight plans during the conduct
of a flight as conditions warrant. This strategy has
the potential for higher measures of effectiveness
than the deterministic approach, but would require
significant additional computational power.
The AI-based techniques needed for the deterministic strategy would also be directly applicable to
the integrated approach. The difference is that, in
lieu of an accumulation process where new flight
plans are added to an existing fixed set, the complete
set of active flight plans may be reviewed and updated
on a frequent basis. Heuristics (preferably based on
machine learning) would be fundamental to keeping
the required computations at a manageable level. For
example, they might be used to limit the geographic
area, number of aircraft, time span and/or alternative
paths to be investigated.
IMPLEMENTATlON

CONSIDERATIONS

It is one thing to review the current state of the art

of artificial intelligence and propose applications where
these techniques appear to offer potential benefits,
and quite another to implement such techniques in
a complex, real-time control system. Experience in
applying expert systems in a commercial or military
environment suggests that systems that work well in
a laboratory environment suffer severe degradation
in their initial performance when placed in the field,
and that considerable subsequent effort is required
to enhance their capabilities to function effectively
under operational conditions (Taylor, 1983). While
this may be acceptable for off-line systems, or systems that can be rehearsed in noncritical, live drills
(such as military war games), there are obvious problems for real-time control systems, such as the ATC
system. Even in such off-line applications as a traffic
flow management
advisor, there are significant
workload and training burdens that will be placed on
the operational staff in order to interact with the
system, while doing their regular job. This will be a
particularly severe problem if development of the
system is expected to continue after it has been installed (as is almost always the case with AI applications). If this aspect has not been properly considered in developing the implementation and evaluation
program, and adequate resources made available to
system development, the likely outcome will be dissatisfaction with the new system by the operational
staff, as the novelty wears off and rising expectations
and needs are not matched by increasing system capabilities. Eventually this dissatisfaction may lead to
the system being ignored or abandoned, as happened
with early attempts to provide expert systems support
in the management of aircraft carrier operations
(Roberts et. al., 1985).
In order to develop and implement practical applications of artificial intelligence in an ATC system

a coherent research program is required that not only

addresses the technical issues of how to build the
relevant software, but also explores the issues that
must be addressed in order to implement this software in the real world system. Among the questions
that such a program should address are:
(1) What is the appropriate role of the human
controller in an automated control system, and what
decision-support aids, responsibilities, training and
qualifications should such a controller have?
(2) How is computer software to be tested and
certified before it is placed into service to control live
traffic, and who is responsible if such software subsequently fails? The question of legal liability for the
consequences of failure of computer software is likely
to become a major concern that will limit the type of
applications that are considered.
(3) How much is formally known at present about
how controllers and other ATC personnel actually
do their jobs on a day-to-day basis, and how can this
knowledge be represented for use by software designers developing expert systems or other applications?
(4) How well-specified are questions concerning
the future evolution of the ATC system, and what
additional research is needed to better specify the
problems that will confront the system beyond the
1995 time frame?
(5) What further research into artificial intelligence and related techniques is required in order to
develop the capability to actually build AI modules
for use in ATC system software?
(6) How are trade-offs to be made between conflicting objectives of the ATC system, such as cost
versus safety or capacity versus reliability?
In fact, none of these issues are unique to air traffic
control systems, and similar questions are likely to
arise in other applications of AI techniques to realtime control systems. This suggests that those responsible for developing ATC research programs
should not allow the obvious differences between air
traffic control and, say, nuclear power plant operation to obscure the similarities in the problem being
faced and the opportunity to learn useful lessons from
the experience of those systems.
CONCLUSIONS

Artificial intelligence techniques appear to offer a

wide range of possible applications to air traffic control under various alternative control strategies. Of
the various branches of artificial intelligence, it ap
pears that techniques developed for heuristic search
and the creation of expert systems offer the most
promise for near-term application. Areas such as
speech interpretation and computer vision may offer
potential applications for control of air traffic, but
operational systems of the necessary degree of ro-

37

Artificial intelligence in air traffic control

bustness are not likely to be available for some time.
Potential applications may exist in #& tfaining and
research environment in a much closer time frame.
Alternative control strategies that can be identified
offer a wide range of both performance and implementation cost. It appears reasonable to assume that
different strategies would be appropriate under different circumstances, particularly under different levels
of traffic density. Consideration should also be given
to the magnitude of the incremental benefits from
more sophisticated control systems, in relation to the
incremental costs. Thus the choice of the development path for a future ATC system should address
what mix of strategies is most appropriate under particular circumstances, rather than which particular
strategy should be selected for application to all situations. The extent to which artificial intelligence
techniques can be introduced into the various ATC
strategies varies, but there are potential applications
in every strategy considered. Although the U.S. National Airspace System Plan has identified a program
of increased automation of the ATC system, represented by two of the seven strategies considered in
this paper, several interesting potential applications
appear to exist under strategies with considerably less
automation, or even without direct control of air
traffic. In view of the much larger number of general
aviation aircraft than air carrier aircraft, and the generally lower levels of pilot experience and ability, the
potential safety benefits of relatively low-cost applications in areas outside positive control airspace appear to deserve closer examination. In addition to
applications involving support for the real-time control of air traffic, there appear to be several important
applications in other aspects of the ATC system, particularly for expert systems. These include support
for failure recovery management, centralized strategic planning (central flow control), controller and
support staff training and airspace configuration
plarming. These applications have the advantage that,
not involving direct control of aircraft, they may be
easier to implement on an experimental basis.
The concept of an intelligent controllers assistant module, as part of the evolution of the ATC
system, offers an opportunity for several AI applications. The combination of expert systems techniques and advanced graphic dispiay capabilities could
assist in reducing both controller workload and the
potential for error. Application of AI techniques to
existing features, such as conflict alert, may allow
considerable increase in sophistication, while reducing the disruption caused by false alarms.
One aspect that should be recognized is that to
achieve the full benefits of applying AI techniques,
it may be necessary to significantly change either
procedural rules or the way ATC services are provided. Merely trying to layer such techniques on top
of an existing system in an incremental fashion may
at best prevent many of the potential benefits from
being achieved, and at worst produce a system that

is so cumbersome and complex that its performance

is act&&~ worse than b&r@@ Thus implementation
issues are every bit as important as technical issues.
The design of AI applications should take account
of how the particular application will be integrated
into the ATC system. This aspect appears poorly
understood and is an area that requires considerable
research if the full potential benefits of AI techniques
are to be achieved.
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