Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

www.elsevier.com/locate/trc

Comparison of fuzzy logic and articial neural

networks approaches in vehicle delay modeling
Y. Sazi Murat

Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Pamukkale University, 20070 Knkl, Denizli, Turkey
Received 21 November 2005; accepted 14 August 2006

Abstract
Modeling vehicle delay has been an interesting subject for trac engineers and urban planners. Determination of vehicle delay is a complex task and the delay is inuenced by many variables that have uncertainties and vagueness, especially
for non-uniform or over-saturated conditions. In this study, vehicle delay is modeled using new approaches such as Fuzzy
Logic (FL) and Articial Neural Networks (ANN) to deal with all conditions. The Neuro Fuzzy Delay Estimation
(NFDE) model and Articial Neural Networks Delay Estimation (ANNDE) model are developed. The overall delay data
required for the model were collected from ten signalized intersections in Turkey. The results of the developed models are
compared with the Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), Akceliks methods and the delay data collected from intersections.
The results showed that delay estimations by the ANNDE and NFDE model are promising. It is also inferred that the
NFDE model results are the best tted. The Average Relative Error (ARE) rates of NFDE model are determined as
7% for under-saturated and 5% for over-saturated conditions. The results reect the fact that the neuro-fuzzy approach
may be used as a promising method in vehicle delay estimation.
 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Fuzzy logic; Articial neural networks; Delay, model; Trac ows; Junctions; Signalization

1. Introduction
Trac congestion becomes one of the main problems in urban areas, especially in metropolises. Trac
engineers or researchers strive to solve the problems and also ameliorate trac congestions. The problems
result from dierent sources, such as vehicle arrival type, trac control, and related parameters.
Vehicle delay is one of the key parameters that is used for signalized junction design and level-of-service
determination. Vehicle delay consists of two parts as uniform and non-uniform by researchers (Dion et al.,
2003). Uniform delay is calculated based on signal timings and trac volumes. On the other hand, nonuniform delay is ascertained by considering the vehicle queue and random arrivals. While uniform delay is

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E-mail address: ysmurat@pamukkale.edu.tr

0968-090X/$ - see front matter  2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.trc.2006.08.003

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

317

handled easily, determination of non-uniform delay has been a problem for researchers, especially for oversaturation cases.
The conventional approaches or formulas (Webster, 1958; Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), 1985; Akcelik, 1981) cannot handle the real situations, especially for an over-saturation case (i.e. the degree of saturation
is greater than 1). Although previous methods consider similar variables for vehicle delay estimates, the results
are not comparable to each other. The Webster delay formula gives very high values or meaningless results for
over-saturated conditions. The eld studies show that delay of vehicles increase but cannot reach the values
calculated by the Webster delay formula for an over-saturation case. Although new versions of the HCM
(TRB, 2000) and Akceliks delay formulas give much more reasonable results compared to the Webster delay
formula, both methods do not represent the observed values obtained from eld studies for over-saturated
conditions in most cases. This is due to many variables and interactions that cannot be dened adequately
in the formulas. Following headway, driver behavior, age, perception time, intersection geometry, and weather
conditions are not used in the existing delay formulas. The green time, red time, cycle time, the saturation ow
value, and queue length are generally used in the calculation of vehicle delays. On the other hand, the queue
length, dissipation, and overow queue may be inuenced by the interactions of those variables that were not
used in the formulas. For instance, old drivers or drivers whose perception times are long may obstruct the
dissipation of vehicle queues and may cause an increase in vehicular delay. This can be seen in both over-saturated and under-saturated conditions. Additionally, vehicle delay can also increase on rainy days or when
sight distance is very low. Thus, delay values calculated for over-saturated conditions do not match observations of actual over-saturated conditions because of insucient denitions of the interactions of variables and
the cases given above.
A comprehensive model is required to remove this deciency. Therefore, fuzzy logic and articial neural
network approaches are used for modeling delays of vehicles in this study. Two models based on the FL
and ANN approaches are developed to estimate vehicle delays at isolated signalized intersections that are controlled by xed-time systems. The models are improved based on real data collected from eld studies and the
models are compared to the results of conventional methods and eld observations.
2. Aim of the study
In this study, the aim is to create a better delay model using fuzzy logic and articial neural network
approaches for under-saturated and over-saturated trac conditions. This is undertaken because the present
methods are not adequate for over-saturated conditions.
3. Delay phenomenon
3.1. Denitions about delay
The vehicle delay at signalized intersections has been dened as the stopping, acceleration, and deceleration
delays (Dion et al., 2003).
The overall or control delay includes deceleration, stopping, and acceleration delays. The deceleration delay
is the time during which the vehicles decelerate while approaching a signalized intersection. The stopping delay
includes the time the vehicles spend stopped during a red or green signal period at a signalized intersection.
The acceleration delay of the vehicles may be dened as the time required to accelerate after the trac signals
turn to green. In the evaluation of trac signal control systems or signal design, the overall delay is the most
commonly used value. Fig. 1 displays trajectory of a vehicle near a signalized intersection approach and delay
components. In the gure, A denotes the deceleration, B the stopping, and C the acceleration delay of a
vehicle.
The Webster (1958), HCM (TRB, 1985) or the Akceliks (1981) delay calculation methods have been preferred by trac engineers for many years. In 1965, the Transportation Research Board (TRB) published the
Highway Capacity Manual (HCM), and it has subsequently been updated several times. In the HCM method,
the average delay of vehicles is calculated based on a lane of an approach. The Webster delay formula cannot

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

Distance

318

Total delay

B: Stopped
delay

A:
Deceleration
delay

C:
Acceleration
delay

Time

Fig. 1. Components of vehicle delays.

be used for over-saturation cases. Therefore, only the new version of HCM (TRB, 2000) and the Akceliks
(1981) delay formulas are considered in this study.
Akcelik (1981) assumed that the total delay includes both acceleration and deceleration delays and stated
that the eect of the queue length must be considered in delay calculation. The queue length is determined by
the following equations:
s!
QT f
12x x0
2
x  1 x  1
N0
1
QT f
4
x0 0:67 sg=600

where N0: the average overow queue, Q: the capacity, Tf: the ow period, QTf: the maximum number of vehicles which can be discharged during interval Tf, x: the degree of saturation, x0: the degree of saturation below
which the average overow queue is approximately zero, s: the saturation ow in vehicles per second and g:
the eective green time in seconds.
The total delay for isolated xed-time signalized intersection is calculated as follow:
D

qc1  u2
N 0x
21  y

where D: total delay, q: ow in vehicles per second, c: cycle time in seconds, u: green time ratio, y: ow ratio,
N0: average overow queue in vehicles.
The average delay per vehicle can be expressed as
d D=q

where D is the total delay and q is the ow in vehicles per second.

The following formula is used in updated form of the HCM method (TRB, 2000):
d d 1 PF d 2 d 3

where d: control delay per vehicle, d1: uniform control delay assuming uniform arrivals, PF: uniform delay
progression adjustment factor, which shows the eects of signal progression, d2: incremental delay to account
for eect of random arrivals and over-saturation queues, d3: initial queue delay which accounts for delay to all
vehicles in analysis period due to initial queue at start of analysis period.
The progression adjustment factor, PF, applies to all coordinated lane groups, including both pre-timed
control and non-actuated lane groups in semi-actuated control systems (TRB, 2000). Good signal progressions
create a high proportion of vehicles arriving on a green signal, and poor signal progressions create a low proportion of vehicles arriving on a green.

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319

The value of PF is determined by using the following equation:

PF

1  P fPA
1  gc

where PF: progression adjustment factor, P: proportion of vehicles arriving on green, g/c: proportion of green
time available, fPA: supplemental adjustment factor for platoon arriving during green.
The following equation gives the uniform control delay in HCMs approach (TRB, 2000):

2
0:5c 1  gc


d1
7
1  min1; x gc
where d1: uniform control delay assuming uniform arrivals, c: cycle length, g: eective green time for lane
group, x: v/c ratio or degree of saturation for lane group.
Non-uniform arrivals, cycle failures and over-saturation conditions cause an incremental delay of trac
ows.
The incremental delay is determined using Eq. (8)
"
r#
8klx
2
d 2 900T x  1 x  1
8
CT
where d2: the incremental delay to account for eect of random and over-saturation queues, T: the duration of
analysis period, k: the incremental delay factor, l: the upstream ltering/metering adjustment factor, C: the
lane group capacity and the x: the lane group degree of saturation.
The initial queue delay is calculated using Eq. (9).
d3

1800Qb 1 ut
CT

where d3: the initial queue delay, Qb: the initial queue at the start of period T, C: the adjusted lane group
capacity, T: the duration of analysis period, t: the duration of unmet demand in T and u: the delay parameter.
The parameters t and u may be determined considering the queuing process and details about selection of these
parameters were explained in HCM (TRB, 2000).
It is apparent that the aforementioned formulas consider similar variables of the phenomenon. The dierences are resulted from calculation approaches and the values assigned for the variables in the formulas. Further details can be obtained from related references.
3.2. Previous studies
Numerous studies have been carried out to determine vehicle delays. Researchers have focused specically
on queuing and have attempted to clarify randomness in vehicle delay. To represent the random eects, some
correction factors have been suggested in certain studies. Selected studies related to the vehicle delay phenomenon are summarized in the following.
Kimber and Daly (1986) improved the time-dependent queuing model. They are interested in measurements
of queue lengths and vehicle delays in testing the predictions of time-dependent queuing models. They
observed eight dierent road sites for a number of peak periods at each site. The vehicle headways and position in the queue were taken into account in their delay calculation procedure. Although the delay values calculated by the model were much closer than the steady-state approximations, their suggested procedure for
delay calculation is not practical.
Akcelik (1988) studied the 1985 HCM delay formula and improved a calibration process for the formula. A
new model presented in the study was compared with the Australian and Canadian methods and the
TRANSYT (Robertson, 1969) program. It was concluded that the results of the calibrated HCM delay formula were much more reasonable than with the previous case.
Burrow (1989) focused on the Akceliks study (1988) and proposed additional factors for the formula
improved by Akcelik. Burrows additional factors consider variations in the pattern of trac arrivals and

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departures, dierences between demand ow in peak and o-peak times, and the dierence in the capacity
before and after the peak.
Prevedeorus and Koga (1996) compared the 1985 HCM delay formula with 1994 version. They found that
the 1994 HCM improves the accuracy of delay. They also emphasized that the ideal saturation ow assumed
by the HCM method was dierent from eld studies and vehicle delays aected by this value.
Powell (1998) proposed some correction factors to improve the 1997 HCM delay formula. The correction
factors were a function of free-ow speed and the average number of vehicles stopped in the queue. The study
was limited both to under-saturated trac conditions and a vehicle queue that is less than or equal to 25 vehicles. The variables such as heavy vehicle eects, variations in eld conditions, etc. were suggested for further
works.
Quiroga and Bullock (1999) measured vehicle delays using Geographic Information and Global Positioning
Systems. Components of the total delay were determined based on timespeed, timedistance, and timeacceleration relations. It was underlined that the acceleration and deceleration delay values in general, were much
higher than the expected delay values.
The vehicle delay phenomenon was also studied by Qiao et al. (2002). In order to simulate the 1997 HCM
delay formula, a fuzzy logic model was developed in the study. The model was tested using the data collected
only from a real intersection in Hong Kong. Although the results attained from the fuzzy model were better
than the HCM formula, the over-saturation cases were not taken into account in the study. In addition, the
observed intersection was controlled by a coordinated system. Thus, the eect of queuing that causes an
increase in delay has not been considered in the study.
Dion et al. (2003) paid attention to delay and compared various analytic models with microscopic simulation software called INTEGRATION. They found that all delay models produced similar results for signalized intersections with low trac demand, but the results diered as trac demand approached saturation.
Washburn and Larson (2002) carried out performance comparisons of three software packages
(TRANSYT-7F, SYNCHRO and HCS). Although the 1997 HCM delay calculation procedure was used in
all of the software packages, there were some dierences in the results. It was emphasized that the dierences
resulted from the Progression Factor in the 1997 HCM delay formula (TRB, 1997).
However valuable these studies are, there is still vagueness in determination of delay, especially for oversaturated conditions. Therefore, this study concentrates on delay estimation at signalized intersections using
fuzzy logic and articial neural network approaches for both under-saturated and over-saturated conditions.
4. Articial neural networks and fuzzy logic approaches
4.1. Articial neural networks
Articial Neural Network (ANN) is a mathematical model, which can be set one or more layered and
occurred from many articial neural cells (Hagan et al., 1996; Jang et al., 1997). The weights between cells
are separated with various training rules which supply the aims of design.
The wide usage of the ANNs may be due to the three basic properties: (1) the ability of the ANN as a parallel processing of the problems, for which if any of the neurons1 violate the constraints would not aect the
overall output of the problem; (2) the ability of the ANNs to extrapolate from historical data to generate forecasts; and (3) the successful application of the ANNs to solve non-linear problems.
In addition to these advantages, several diculties have been encountered in the ANN modeling approach.
One of the important diculties in modeling is the over-tting problem, which takes place if data are not proportionately divided as training, testing, and validation that lead to a problem of less estimation of the
demand (Dia, 2001; Zhang et al., 1998; Tsoukalas and Uhrig, 1997). If only the training part is taken into
account to estimate the demand without testing the ANN model, the estimated parameters over ts the problem (i.e. memorize the data). In order to prevent this situation some data partition methods such as the threeway data split validation method are used.

Fundamental cellular unit of the brains nervous system

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321

Mathematical expression of articial neural networks is given in Eq. (10). The neuron inputs are summarized by multiplying the weight factors on synaptic equations, and the output is computed by using neuron
activation function in mathematical expression of articial neural networks. Each neuron also has an input
between [1 1] which is called bias. The net input is calculated as follows:
S w1  u1 w2  u2 w3  u3    wn  un  h

n
X

w i  ui

10

i1

O f S

11

where w1, w2, . . . , wn are the weighting parameters; u1, u2, . . . , un are the input parameters; h is the bias; and S is
set of the sum of weighted inputs; O is set of output; f(S) is activation function.
In this study, the feed-forward neural networks, which are common in literature, are used. The feed-forward neural networks have three layers: input, hidden, and output layer. The hidden layers are located
between the input and output layers. The number of hidden layers and neuron numbers are found by a trial
and error approach in general.
Training may be dened as the rst stage of the modeling in the ANN. It can be classied in two groups as
supervised and unsupervised. The input vectors are used to train the net as answer of output in supervised training. Error of net is compared between observed and estimated values. The weighting parameters are updated
as far as the total error of net is less than the acceptable level. But in unsupervised training, only input data are
given the network and the output is obtained without a training process (Hagan et al., 1996).
The back propagation algorithm can be used for any feed-forward neural networks with derivative activation function. The algorithm requires dierentiable activation function in everywhere. The activation function
that could be derivative needs for training of feed forward neural networks (Zhang et al., 1998; Murat, 1999;
Golcu et al., 2005). The sigmoid type activation function used in this study is given Eq. (12). Output values are
calculated by inputs multiplied with the weight values (S) and passed from the activation function
f S

1
1 eS

12

The error of the network is calculated by comparing the desired and actual results using Eq. (13):
E

n
1 X

d i  oi 2 ;
2 i1

i 1; 2; . . . ; n

13

where, E is the network error and di is the desired output for individual i.
The network error is calculated and propagated through the network and the weights are updated. These
processes are repeated until the error limits are met. After training process, the trained network should be
tested in order to get the verication of the model. Dierent approaches may be used in selecting the appropriate model; in general, the hold out, the k-fold and the three-way data split methods are used for this
purpose.
4.2. Fuzzy modeling
The fuzzy logic concept was rst introduced by L.A. Zadeh in 1965. It was proposed as an extended version
of Aristotelian logic considering all values between 0 and 1. After Zadeh, many researchers carried out the
fuzzy logic approach and developed models in dierent areas (Gaines, 1976; Pappis and Mamdani, 1977;
Kosko, 1986; Teodorovic and Kikuchi, 1990; Teodorovic et al., 2001; Kalic and Teodorovic, 2003). The common use of fuzzy logic comes from its attractive features. One of the main attractions of fuzzy modeling is its
simplicity and natural structure. In addition, the uncertainties encountered in our life may easily be dened
using the fuzzy logic approach. Many textbooks provide basic information on the phenomenon (Ross,
1995; Zimmerman, 1990).
The fuzzy logic approach is applied in dierent disciplines on dierent subjects. The fuzzy modeling steps
can be dened as follows.

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1. Determination of variables and membership functions

In the rst step of fuzzy modeling, the variables associated with the subject are determined based on experience. Variables are divided into subsets by membership functions. Membership functions of the variables
can be triangular, trapezoidal, or bell type. Selecting the ranges of membership functions is very important
and aects the results. Some methods, such as genetic algorithm or articial neural networks, can be used in
order to obtain the best results.
2. Denition of rule base
The rule base is constituted of combinations of antecedents and consequents. The IF-THEN form is used in
the rule base. The rule base can easily be dened with a trial-and-error approach. However, it is very difcult to obtain a robust rule base in this way. A common and more reliable method for dening a fuzzy rule
base is to use sample data and derive the necessary rule base with a fuzzy inference procedure.
3. Selection of inference method
The inference method, such as maxmin or maxproduct, is selected based on inductive or deductive reasoning approaches. Maxmin (Mamdani) is the most widely known method. The Sugeno type inference can be
used based on the problem type and available data set. The red rules result from using the inference method
considered. A combine or singleton fuzzy result (based on implication method) is obtained at the end of each
inference. The ultimate (crisp) result is attained after application of the defuzzication process.
4. Determining defuzzication method
The last step of fuzzy modeling is defuzzication. The fuzzy results are converted to crisp values in this step.
The centroid, weighted average, mean of maximum, maximum membership etc. are the defuzzication
methods used in fuzzy modeling. The method is determined by the type of problem. The centroid is a
defuzzication method widely used by researchers (Ross, 1995; Murat and Gedizlioglu, 2005).
The structure of a fuzzy logic system is presented in Fig. 2 (Kaynak and Armagan, 1992).
4.2.1. Fuzzy neural modeling
In fuzzy modeling, the membership functions and rule base are generally determined by trial-and-error
approaches. Although this approach is straightforward, the determination of best tting boundaries of membership functions and number of rules are very dicult. In order to calibrate the membership functions and
rule base in fuzzy modeling, the neural networks have been employed by researchers (Jang, 1992, 1993; Rong
and Wang, 1996; Ouyang and Lee, 2000; Rojas et al., 2000; Guler and Ubeyli, 2004). This system has been
called fuzzy neural, neuro-fuzzy or adaptive network based system. The key properties of neuro-fuzzy systems
are the accurate learning and adaptive capabilities of the neural networks, together with the generalization and
fast-learning capabilities of fuzzy logic systems. The Adaptive Network based Fuzzy Inference System
(ANFIS) was developed by Jang (1992) and is used in The Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of Matlab software.
To explain the ANFIS architecture, the rst order Sugeno model with the following rules is taken into
account:
Rule 1: If (x is A1) and (y is B1) then (f1 = p1x + q1y + r1)
Rule 2: If (x is A2) and (y is B2) then (f2 = p2x + q2y + r2)
where x and y are the inputs, Ai and Bi are the fuzzy sets, fi are the outputs within the fuzzy region specied by
the fuzzy rule, pi; qi and ri are the design variables that are ascertained during training process. The ANFIS
architecture to implement these two rules is shown in Fig. 3, in which a circle indicates a xed node, whereas a
square indicates an adaptive node.
Rule Base
Output

Input
Fuzzification

Inference

Defuzzification

Fig. 2. Structure of a fuzzy logic system.

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

Layer 1

Layer 4
Layer 2

Layer 3

Layer 5
x y

A1

x
A2

w1

w1

w1 f1

B1

y
B2

323

w2

w2 f 2

w2
x y

Fig. 3. ANFIS architecture.

In the rst layer, all the nodes are adaptive nodes. The outputs of layer 1 are the fuzzy membership grade of
the inputs, which are given by
O1i lAi x;
O1i

lBi2 y;

i 1; 2

14

i 3; 4

15

where lAi x, lBi2 y can adopt any fuzzy membership function. For instance, if the Gaussian function is employed, lAi x is given by
" 
2 #
x  ci
lAi x exp 
16
ai
where ai and ci are the variables of the membership function. As the values of these variables change, the
Gaussian function varies accordingly, thus exhibiting various forms of membership functions on linguistic label Ai. Variables in this layer are referred to as premise variables.
In the second layer, the nodes are xed nodes. They are labeled with M; which multiplies the incoming signals and sends the product out. The outputs of this layer can be represented as
O2i wi lAi xxlBi y;

i 1; 2

17

which are the ring strengths of a rule.

In the third layer, the nodes are also xed nodes. They are labeled with N; indicating that they play a normalization role to the ring strengths from the previous layer. The outputs of this layer can be represented as
wi
O3i wi
; i 1; 2
18
w1 w2
which are the so-called normalized ring strengths.
In the fourth layer, the nodes are adaptive nodes. The output of each node in this layer is simply the product of the normalized ring strength and a rst order polynomial (for a rst order Sugeno model). Thus, the
outputs of this layer are given by
O4i wi fi wi pi x qi y ri

19

In the fth layer, there is only one single xed node labeled with R. This node performs the summation of all
incoming signals. Hence, the overall output of the model is given by
P
X
wi fi
5
wi fi Pi
20
Oi
i wi
i
In order to tune premise (ai, ci) and design variables (pi, qi, ri) the hybrid learning algorithm was proposed by
Jang et al. (1997). The hybrid learning algorithm combines gradient descent and least square methods and it is
faster than a back propagation algorithm. The least squares method (forward pass) is used to optimize the

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consequent variables with the premise variables xed. Once the optimal consequent variables are found, the
backward pass starts immediately. The gradient descent method (backward pass) is used to adjust optimally
the premise variables corresponding to the fuzzy sets in the input domain. By this passing process, optimum
variables are determined. The details of this algorithm can be obtained from Jang et al. (1997).
5. Fuzzy logic and articial neural networks vehicle delay models
5.1. Field studies
The required data for the models were obtained from eld studies in three cities, Denizli, Izmir and Erzurum in 2002, 2003 and 2004 (Baskan, 2004; Atalay, 2004). The overall delay data including deceleration and
acceleration delays were collected from isolated signalized junctions. The data were collected from 14 signalized intersections in the cities in Turkey. The delay data were collected from elds for 100 h. The data for each
lane were collected for peak and o-peak periods during the weekdays.
Two reference pointsone of them was located at 100 m from the stop-line and the other was located at the
middle of the junctionwere determined in the eld studies (Fig. 4). In order to measure the acceleration
delay, location of the reference point 1 was specically selected at the middle of junctions. Similarly, to measure the deceleration delays, the reference point 2 (100 m away from the stop-line) was ascertained based on
the maximum observed queue lengths. Two people were employed for each lane during this survey. One of
them counted the number of passing vehicles and arriving times considering crossing the reference point 2
by using a stopwatch and the other one saved the data on the survey form. After the light turned to green,
departing time of each vehicle was also noted considering the reference point 1. The dierence of arriving
and departing times were determined as overall delays of vehicles. The queuing process, vehicles in queue
at each cycle, initial queue at starting of the green period and overow queue were collected during the observations. Each lane was observed separately and the data were collected carefully. In total, 15,884 vehicles and
100 hourly delay data were observed in the eld studies. The number of data observed for under-saturation
conditions were 74 and for over-saturated conditions were 26. The average delay values for the lanes or
approaches in terms of seconds per vehicle were calculated after sum of the individual delays.
5.2. The NFDE model
The NFDE model was developed for determining average vehicle delays at signalized junctions for undersaturated and over-saturated conditions. The eective variables of the delay phenomenon are determined considering previous studies and models. The Trac Volumes (TV), Average Queue (AQ) on a lane, Ratio of Red
time to the Cycle time (RRC) and Environmental Conditions (EC) are ascertained as the fuzzy logic delay
estimation model variables.
Vehicle delays are aected by trac volumes. Increases in trac volumes cause increases in delays. Vehicle
queues occur if trac volumes are very high and the vehicle delays increased if the queues are not dissipated.
Therefore, trac volume is considered one of the eective variables on vehicle delays.

Reference
Point 1

Observers

Stop line

Reference
Point 2

A
B

100 m
Fig. 4. Locations of the reference points used in delay observations.

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325

The average queue on a lane is determined as the second variable. Generally, vehicle queues are seen if the
trac volumes are higher than the capacity. But in some cases the queuing can be constituted for the trac
volumes lower than the capacity. Besides the trac volumes, the queuing is also based on the following headways. The following headways may be changed according to the drivers characteristics. Therefore, determination of vehicle queue is very hard and includes uncertainties. As a result, the average vehicle queue on a lane
is selected as the eective variable on vehicle delay. The vehicle queues for each cycle are observed in the eld
studies and average values are calculated. Membership functions of the variable are determined using the data
obtained by ANFIS approach.
Red signal time and cycle time have been used in various delay formulas previously developed and these are
directly related to vehicle delays. Both timings are eective on vehicle delay and are considered as a ratio (red
time over cycle time) in the NFDE model.
Environmental conditions also have an eect on vehicle delay at signalized junctions including many factors. A bus stop near junction, road side parking, inconvenient pedestrian crossing (without using special
crossings) and shared lanes are considered in environmental conditions. The vehicle delay is aected negatively
by all of these factors. In eld studies, the value of each factor is scored one point. The total environmental
conditions value for each approach of intersection is obtained by calculating the sum of values of the factors.
The maximum value for the EC is 10 points and indicates the worst condition.
The NFDE model is developed using Fuzzy Logic Toolbox of the software Matlab 7.0. The NFDE model
structure is indicated in Fig. 5. The membership functions are determined by using ANFIS approach.
The Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) has four input variables and one output variable.
The ANFIS is trained using the same data set (70 inputoutput pairs) that is used in developing the
ANNDE model. The 15 data is used as holdout data for verifying the model. As a process used by ANFIS
systems, the initial values of the antecedents variables can be dened in a way that the centers of the membership functions are equally spaced along the range of each input variable. Then, the variables of the fuzzy
rules are optimized to get the nal membership range. The Gaussian membership functions are used in definition of NFDE model variables. The tuned membership functions of the input variables are shown in
Fig. 6. The Sugeno fuzzy inference system is used in the NFDE model. In Sugeno fuzzy inference models,
the crisp output function (or value) is described using the input fuzzy variables. General form of the output
function (linear) used in NFDE model is given in Eq. (21). The coecients and intercepts (design variables
for Layer 4) of output membership functions are determined after training process in NFDE model. These
values are given in Table 1
fi pi TV qi AQ si RT ti EC ri

21

Membership
Functions
Traffic Volumes
Rules

Outputs

Average Queu Length

Sum

Red Time Ratio

Environmental
Conditions

Fig. 5. NFDE model structure.

Defuzzified
Output

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Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

U(TV)
TV1

TV2 TV3 TV4 TV5 TV6

TV7

TV8

478

689

114

132

190

205 263

303

1060

Traffic
Volumes

12

Average
Queue

U(AQ)
AQ1

AQ2

AQ3 AQ4

AQ5

AQ6

AQ7

AQ8

10

5 5.05

U(RT)
RT4 RT6 RT8
RT2 RT3 RT5 RT7

RT1
1

0.4

0.5

0.6 0.62 0.64 0.66

0.63 0.65 0.67

0.73

Red Time
Ratio

U(EC)
EC1

EC2 EC3

EC4

EC5 EC6

EC7 EC8

4 4.02

6 6.02

7 7.02

Environmental
Conditions

Fig. 6. NFDE model variables and membership functions determined by ANFIS.

The hybrid learning rule was applied for identifying the output variables in the neuro-fuzzy optimization process. The learning hybrid rule combines steepest descent and least squares estimator for identifying the variables of the consequent part of the inferential rules (Jang et al., 1997; Ouyang and Lee, 2000).

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

327

Table 1
Output membership functions coecients and intercepts of NFDE model
Output membership function

pi

qi

si

ti

ri

f1
f2
f3
f4
f5
f6
f7
f8

0.090
0.005
0.168
0.056
0.162
0.175
0.034
0.004

7.360
3.690
4.460
10.250
0.102
15.110
1.944
22.360

155.400
34.870
290.200
10.330
74.570
20.690
12.100
393.900

9.545
15.350
18.220
9.614
16.910
22.080
0.333
10.620

165.000
19.410
303.000
54.980
39.690
104.500
46.900
327.100

The variables of the antecedent part of the fuzzy inference rules are set up based on evaluation of characteristics of the input data set. The rule base of the model is formed considering membership functions of the
variables. In NFDE model, the rule base is ascertained by ANFIS approach and 8 rules are used. Rule base
are given in Table 2.
The weighted average method is used for defuzzication in the NFDE model.
5.3. The ANNDE model
The feed-forward neural network type and error back propagation algorithms are used for developing the
ANNDE model. The numbers of hidden layers, neurons in a hidden layer, learning rate, momentum coecient and the numbers of iterations are determined by a trial-and-error approach. In the ANNDE model,
the trac volumes, cycle time and red signal time are selected as eective variables based on the previous studies. Structure of the ANNDE model is shown in Fig. 7.
The three-way data split method (Osuna, 2002) is used in order to prevent over-tting problem and also to
determine the best network architecture. The ow chart of the three-way data split methodology is given in
Fig. 8. First the data are divided into three parts as training (70), test (15) and validation (15) sets. Then
Table 2
NFDE model rule base
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.

IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF
IF

TV
TV
TV
TV
TV
TV
TV
TV

is
is
is
is
is
is
is
is

TV3
TV7
TV5
TV1
TV2
TV4
TV8
TV6

and
and
and
and
and
and
and
and

AQ
AQ
AQ
AQ
AQ
AQ
AQ
AQ

is
is
is
is
is
is
is
is

AQ3
AQ7
AQ5
AQ1
AQ2
AQ4
AQ8
AQ6

and
and
and
and
and
and
and
and

RT
RT
RT
RT
RT
RT
RT
RT

is
is
is
is
is
is
is
is

Traffic
Volume
Cycle time

RT4
RT7
RT2
RT3
RT1
RT5
RT8
RT6

and
and
and
and
and
and
and
and

EC
EC
EC
EC
EC
EC
EC
EC

is
is
is
is
is
is
is
is

EC3
EC8
EC6
EC2
EC1
EC4
EC7
EC5

THEN
THEN
THEN
THEN
THEN
THEN
THEN
THEN

.3

O
O
O
O
O
O
O
O

is
is
is
is
is
is
is
is

f1
f2
f3
f4
f5
f6
f7
f8

1
Red time

Vehicle Delay

.
.
.
10

Input Layer

Hidden Layer

Output Layer

Fig. 7. Structure of the ANNDE model.

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Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

Test Set
Training Set
Validation Set

Error 1

Model 2

Error 2

+
Min

Model 1

Model 3

Error 3

Final
Error

Final
Model 1

Model 4

Error 4

Model Selection

Error Rate

Fig. 8. Flow chart of the three-way data split validation method.

the best network architecture is investigated considering the combinations of the data sets given in Table 2.
For each of the partition, the network architecture is trained and its performance is tested with the test data
set that was not used in training. The best network architectures obtained from dierent trials and partitions
and corresponding error values are given in Table 3. For each run, the best network architecture is selected
with the minimum network error. One and two hidden layers with maximum 20 neurons are tried at each
layer.
Two criteria, the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values and coecient of determination (R2) values are taken
into consideration for searching the network architecture using train, test and validation data. The ultimate
network architecture is determined as [3 16 1] based on evaluations of the entire criterion. The MAE
and R2 values of dierent network architectures are indicated in Figs. 9 and 10 respectively.
In order to deal with all cases using the ANNDE model, the data sets are re-partitioned and re-trained considering new partitions and the best network architecture. The data are rst divided into 5 groups considering
the trac volumes (Table 4). Each group is also divided into three folds as training, test, and validation data.

Table 3
Partitions of the data used in the rst stage

Partition I
Partition II
Partition III
Partition IV
Partition V
Partition VI
Partition VII
Partition VIII
Partition IX
Partition X
Partition XI
Partition XII

Test

Validation
Training

Test

Training
Validation
Training

Training
Validation
Validation
Val.
Val.
Test
Test
Validation

Test
Training

Test
Training
Training
Training
Val.
Training
Training

Test
Validation
Validation
Test

Training
Test
Val.
Test
Test
Training
Validation
Training
Test
Training
Val.

Val.
Val.
Val.

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

329

Errors (MAE)

7
6
5
4
3

weighted errors
Average Errors

2
1

[3-10-1]

[3-7-4-1]

[3-8-2-1]

[3-9-1]

[3-13-1]

[3-7-1]

[3-14-1]

[3-8-3-1]

[3-5-1]

[3-9-3-1]

[3-6-9-1]

[3-8-1]

[3-3-5-1]

[3-3-1]

[3-7-7-1]

[3-5-9-1]

[3-2-7-1]

[3-2-10-1]

[3-6-1]

[3-23-1]

[3-16-1]

[3-7-1]

[3-5-8-1]

[3-7-5-1]

Network Architecture

0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2

[3-7-4-1]

[3-10-1]

[3-8-2-1]

[3-9-1]

[3-13-1]

[3-7-1]

[3-14-1]

[3-8-3-1]

[3-5-1]

[3-9-3-1]

[3-6-9-1]

[3-8-1]

[3-3-5-1]

[3-3-1]

[3-7-7-1]

[3-5-9-1]

[3-2-7-1]

[3-6-1]

[3-23-1]

[3-16-1]

[3-7-1]

[3-5-8-1]

[3-2-10-1]

0.1
[3-7-5-1]

Coefficient of Determination (R2)

Fig. 9. Weighted and average error values for dierent network architectures.

Network Architecture
Fig. 10. Coecient of determination values for dierent network architectures.

The test data are selected from a wide range of each data group (i.e 50 vph to 1000 vph) and the combinations
of the training and validation data are taken into consideration in re-training. Thirty-two combinations (partitions) are regarded in the analysis using the pre-determined network architecture (i.e. [3 16 1]). Samples
from the trials for dierent partitions and corresponding error values are given in Table 5.
6. Comparisons of delay estimations
The NFDE and ANNDE models are compared with the HCM and Akceliks delay formulas and the delay
data obtained from the observations. The validation data set for ANNDE model is used in comparisons.
These data were not used in training the ANNDE and NFDE models. The data and compared results are
given in Table 6. The result is that convergences of the NFDE and ANNDE models are much more reasonable
than the formulas, especially for over-saturation cases. Average delay estimations compared for degree of saturation are given in Fig. 11. The degree-of-saturation values are calculated using Akceliks formula. The saturation ow rates are assumed as 1600 vph for per lanes while calculating the degree of saturation.
The comparisons show that, general trends of the NFDE and ANNDE models are similar to observations
for both under-saturated and over-saturated trac conditions. On the other hand, the HCM and Akcelik delay
formulas show higher deviations for over-saturation conditions (x > 1). It is also inferred that the formulas and
the NFDE and ANNDE model results are similar when the degree-of-saturation values are less than 1. But the
conventional formulas give exaggerated results for the degree-of-saturation values higher than 1.

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Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

Table 4
Samples from network architectures searching and corresponding errors
Partition no.

Best network architecture

Train errors

Test errors

Validation errors

381
3771
361
3691
371
3 2 10 1
3 14 1
3581
331
3751
3 23 1
3351
3 16 1
3741
371
3591
3 13 1
3271
391
3821
3 10 1
3931
351
3831

5.49
5.24
4.47
5.64
3.41
4.94
5.28
3.33
5.36
3.12
4.38
5.39
4.05
4.89
4.96
4.84
4.99
5.05
4.99
4.54
7.72
5.04
5.02
4.99

10.64
9.24
3.69
7.44
8.45
6.26
3.81
8.99
8.71
6.84
9.95
3.27
4.99
4.35
3.71
5.45
5.24
9.19
3.81
5.57
3.48
4.58
6.24
4.20

3.72
2.65
9.08
3.74
8.45
9.66
4.13
5.96
6.98
7.93
3.49
3.93
4.80
4.59
3.82
3.69
2.89
2.31
2.77
2.99
4.13
2.92
4.15
2.71

II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
XI
XII

Table 5
Samples from re-partitions of the data used in second stage
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
Partition
..
..
..
Partition
Partition

Fold I
I
II
III
IV
V
VI
VII
VIII

XXXI
XXXII

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
..
..
..
Tr
Tr

Fold II
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
V
..
..
..
V
V

Tr
V
V
V
V
Tr
Tr
Tr
..
..
..
Tr
Tr

Fold III
V
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
V
V
V
..
..
..
V
V

Tr
Tr
V
V
V
V
V
V
..
..
..
Tr
Tr

Fold IV
V
V
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
..
..
..
V
V

Tr
Tr
Tr
V
V
Tr
V
V
..
..
..
V
V

Fold V
V
V
V
Tr
Tr
V
Tr
Tr
..
..
..
Tr
Tr

Tr
Tr
Tr
Tr
V
Tr
Tr
V
..
..
..
Tr
V

V
V
V
V
Tr
V
V
Tr
..
..
..
V
Tr

Error rates of the models are also determined. The Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error
(MSE) and Average Relative Error (ARE) rates are calculated for both under-saturated and over-saturated
conditions and are given in Table 7. The critical error rate of ARE is assumed as 15%. As can be seen in Table
8, the NFDE model has minimum error rates for both conditions under considering error criteria. The higher
dierences are reported for over-saturated conditions (i.e. x > 1). The HCM and Akceliks delay formulas give
over-estimated results for over-saturated conditions.
7. Conclusions
The results serve a variety of purposes, including estimation of vehicle delay for over-saturated trac conditions, remove deciencies about delay estimations, and to use the models presented for signalized junction

Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

331

Table 6
Samples from the second stage of training and corresponding errors
Partition no.

Train errors

Test errors

Validation errors

I
III
IX
X
XII
XV
XVIII
XX
XXIV
XXV
XXX
XXXII

5.00
3.54
4.90
5.78
4.67
4.15
5.33
6.27
5.38
3.16
4.98
5.06

8.15
7.50
6.44
4.28
5.45
4.38
6.98
6.57
4.37
6.66
5.45
4.33

7.00
5.68
5.34
6.08
5.78
4.56
3.49
5.50
5.03
4.56
5.00
4.98

80

Average Delay (sec/veh)

70
60
50
40
30
Akelik

20

HCM 2000
ANNDE
model
NFDE model

10
0
0.15

0.19

0.32

0.33

0.37

0.41

0.47

0.53

0.60

0.78

0.95

1.07

1.76

2.11

Degree of Saturation (X)

Fig. 11. Comparisons of delay estimations.
Table 7
The test data and compared results
Test
data no.

Cycle
time (s)

Red
time (s)

Trac
volumes
(vph)

Degree of
saturation x

Average delay (s/veh.)

Akcelik

HCM 2000

ANNDE model

NFDE model

Observations

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15

87
84
91
84
91
91
87
102
102
87
88
88
90
88
90

52
38
56
49
56
56
52
65
65
36
57
42
50
60
60

72
140
154
169
175
194
235
242
274
620
397
742
1000
814
825

0.15
0.19
0.32
0.33
0.37
0.41
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.78
0.95
1.07
1.76
2.24
2.11

23.05
16.83
25.07
25.68
25.36
25.74
24.96
38.29
44.55
58.61
66.92
444.09
730.62
1960.77
2514.37

24.88
19.39
28.80
29.10
29.38
29.95
29.00
40.99
44.27
47.46
62.15
681.82
1489.69
1888.77
2204.37

21.58
15.55
23.77
22.94
25.27
28.19
27.42
31.51
35.09
36.88
39.25
50.14
53.60
46.65
58.69

27.40
27.80
23.20
22.70
23.20
24.80
29.00
33.50
33.70
37.00
37.40
45.30
53.20
47.00
48.10

25.41
25.32
24.45
20.60
20.64
23.54
27.40
32.10
34.00
33.16
38.48
44.20
57.87
47.69
51.66

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Y. Sazi Murat / Transportation Research Part C 14 (2006) 316334

Table 8
Error rates
Models

HCM 2000
Akcelik
ANNDE model
NFDE model

Case of x < 1

Case of x > 1

MAE

MSE

ARE (%)

MAE

MSE

ARE (%)

Errors
8.47
8.77
2.92
1.81

108.72
158.46
15.92
4.07

29
28
12
7

1515.80
1362.11
4.57
2.51

2620100.92
2584330.01
26.00
9.04

2986
2711
9.15
5

design and for obtaining additional capacities that were not attained by conventional approaches. This would
provide a more robust design and also would prevent extra delays that come from incorrect cycle design.
An important implication arising from this analysis is the incapability of current signal design methods for
over-saturated or non-uniform trac conditions. The HCM and Akcelik methods give exaggerated results for
those cases. Although the time-dependent queuing approaches were improved to remove deciencies of conventional approaches, those were not practical. The methodologies or calculation processes of the time-dependent queuing models are very complex and required high precision in observations.
To remove deciencies of previous approaches and models, the fuzzy logic and neural network approaches
are used for estimation of vehicle delays at signalized junctions. These approaches are preferred to handle
complex structure and clarify vagueness in vehicle delay phenomenon. In this work, dierent variables related
to vehicle delays were considered and NFDE and ANNDE models were improved. The models are compared
with the HCM, the Akceliks delay formulas and the eld observations.
The Articial Intelligence (AI) models showed better performance than the HCM and Akceliks methods
especially for high trac volumes and over-saturated trac conditions. MAE, MSE and ARE rates of the AI
models are less than the compared conventional methods. The ARE rates are specically taken into account in
comparisons and the critical rate is assumed as 15%. The NFDE model gives the best results among the models. The ARE rates of NFDE model are determined as 7% for under-saturated and 5% for over-saturated conditions. It is indicated that fuzzy neural approach may be used for vehicle delay estimation. The deciencies
about delay estimations for over-saturated conditions could be removed using this model. More robust and
reliable approaches may also be developed in signalized junction design and additional capacities may be
obtained based on the NFDE model estimations. It has been known that, incorrect design of signal cycle
reveals several negative economical and environmental eects.
In future studies, the NFDE model can be added to any present signal design software and more reliable
cycle design can be achieved. The NFDE model can easily be used by many researchers or city planners, trac
engineers, etc. who are interested in trac signal design.
It is very easy to extend the NFDE model. New variables such as following headways, weather conditions,
etc. could easily be adapted to the model. Furthermore, fuzzy logic and articial neural networks vehicle delay
modeling at coordinated and trac-actuated junctions may be interesting for future works.
Acknowledgement
The author would like to thank the anonymous referees whose comments and suggestions have improved
this article.
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