Betas(classesdeativos)voperformarmelhordoqueocaixa(SELIC)aolongodotempo.

Hdoismotivosparaisso:
ocapitalismofuncionaassim:centralbankcreatescash,andthosewhohavegoodusesforcashwillborrowanduseittoachieveahigherreturn
investidoresqueremserrecompensadospeloriscoquecorremocrescimentopiordoqueoesperado,osativosquesedobemsoosTreasuryBonds????Achoqueissono
valeproBrasil...
ComposiodoRetorno:TaxaLivredeRisco+Betadosetor+Alfa
Brasil>Nolongoprazo,aesnoestomelhoresdoqueCaixa:

"Verdades"dasfinanas:
bycomparingnominalTreasuryBondyieldswithinflationaryindexedbondyields,wecanseethediscountedinflationratesforeachofthenextseveralyields
bycomparingnominalbondyieldstoearningyields,wecancalculatethediscountedgrowthrate.
bylookingatcreditspreads(diferenadetaxasdejurosparaumadvidadedeterminadoratingeottulopblicodemesmoprazo),wecancalculatethediscountedrateofcredit
problems.
Thebiggestdriversofmarketreturnsarechangesindiscountedrealgrowthanddicountedinflationrates.Atthemostmacrolevel
Forexample,sinceearly2003,statsreflectinggrowtharoundtheworldcameoutstrongerthanexpected,whichcausedequitiestorally,creditspreadstonarrowandbondyieldsto
rallygloballi.
Thesemarketchangeswherefuthersupportedbyincreasesinexpectedinflationrates.Similarly,therelativeperformancesofeachcountry

TheadvantageofusinginflationandgrowthasindicatorshashelpedDalio"swimwiththecurrent"opposedtointothecurrent.Depending
onthedirectionthatthecapitalcurrentisflowing(measuredbyinflationandgrowth),Rayhasdeterminedthatcertainsecuritiesand
commoditiesperformwellineachofthesedifferentenvironments.Asthecurrentslosemomentumandprepareforachange(meaning
inflationandgrowthareflat),hegraduallymovesintoaliquidposition.ThisishowDaliohasbeenabletocircumnavigatemajoreconomic
collapsesinthepast.Forexamplein20089Dalio'sAlphafundactuallyhadapositivereturn.Thiscanbeattributedtothefactthathe
wasn'theavilyexposedtoanyparticularsecurityandalsothatherecognizedashiftinmomentumbeforetherestofthemarket.Hewas
abletodothatbycloselymanaginghiscapitalallocationbasedoninflationandgrowthindicators.Seemoreat:
http://www.theinvestorspodcast.com/episodes/37raydalio.html#sthash.g3jvxYQG.dpuf
http://mebfaber.com/2015/05/28/chapter4theriskparityandallseasonsportfolios/

Minhasconcluses
Creditspreadaumentaquandohpioradaeconomia>quedadasaes>aumentaoriscodedefaultnocrdito
Stocksandbondscouldoffseteachotheringrowthshocks>quandohcrescimentoeconmico,osfluxosdecaixadasaescrescemeportantoseuspreos.Quandohpiorana
economia,apontodehaverumarecessoqueprovoquefortequedanainflao,ttulosprfixadossoamelhoropo.
Inflaocrescendoruimtantoparaaesquantoparattulosprfixados.Nessecasoomelhorpossuircommodities,dlarnocasodoBrasileNTNB.