RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

06 NOV 2015

Kolte Patil Developers

BUY
INDUSTRY

REAL ESTATE

CMP (as on 6 Nov 2015)

Rs 166

Target Price

Rs 257

Nifty

7,954

Sensex

26,265

KEY STOCK DATA

Bloomberg

KPDL IN

No. of Shares (mn)

76

MCap (Rs bn) / ($ mn)

13/190

6m avg traded value (Rs mn)

15

STOCK PERFORMANCE (%)

52 Week high / low

Rs 240/136

3M

6M

12M

Absolute (%)

(14.3)

(23.9)

(12.5)

Relative (%)

(7.1)

(22.2)

(6.6)

SHAREHOLDING PATTERN (%)

Promoters
FIs & Local MFs

74.54
0.15

FIIs

12.00

Public & Others

13.31

Source : BSE

Parikshit Kandpal
parikshitd.kandpal@hdfcsec.com
+91-22-6171-7317

Muted performance
Kolte Patil Developers Ltd (KPDL) reported muted
2QFY16 results because of delay in revenue
recognition in a few projects. Pickup in real estate
sentiment will augur well for the company and result
in strong pre-sales momentum. A fat FY16E launch
pipeline of ~9.1mn sqft with ~80% of saleable area
below Rs10mn is provides comfort. Factoring in
KPDLs guidance of Rs 7.5bn revenue for FY16E, we
re-calibrate our estimates with a 4-25% drop.
The company achieved 1mn sqft of presales during
1HFY16 and has planned 5.5mn sqft of new launches
in 2HFY16. The company has maintained 3-3.5mn
sqft of pre-sales guidance and has made 8-10% price
cuts to achieve volumes.
A fully approved launch pipeline of ~20mn sqft lends
visibility to KPDLs FY15-17E cumulative pre-sales
guidance of 12mn sqft at an average realisation of
Rs6,000/sqft. KPDL will not incur new land capex
during FY16E. We maintain BUY and a TP of
Rs257/sh.

Highlights of the quarter

Muted financial performance: Consolidated

revenue de-grew 1.8% YoY, 18.5% below our
estimate. Net profit grew 3.3% YoY and was 23.7%
below our estimate. Delay in revenue recognition
in some of the projects Jazz, Bavdhan, Three
Jewels impacted sales, which will reflect in the
revenue during 3QFY16E.
Presales weak; price cuts to bump up volumes:
KPDL is launching new projects at 8-10% discount
to shore up 2HFY16E volumes. With 9.1mn sqft of
new projects launched during FY16E, the company
is targeting 3-3.5mn sqft in new launches.
Net D/E increases to 0.26x: During 2QFY16,
gross/net debt increased by Rs 760/670mn to
Rs 4.0/2.3bn QoQ. 2QFY16 net D/E stood at 0.26x
(vs. 0.19x in 1QFY16), adjusted for debentures
(Rs1,160mn). KPDL will reduce debt by FY16E-end
with land monetisation and internal accruals.

Financial Summary
(Rs mn)*
Net Sales
EBITDA
APAT
Diluted EPS (Rs)
P/E (x)
EV / EBITDA (x)
RoE (%)

2QFY16
1,550
407
131
1.7

2QFY15
1,579
418
127
1.7

YoY (%)
(1.8)
(2.6)
3.3
3.3

1QFY16 QoQ (%)

1,756
(11.7)
481
(15.3)
145
(9.3)
1.9
(9.3)

FY14
7,642
2,208
920
12.1
13.7
6.9
11.7

FY15
6,966
2,044
653
8.6
19.3
7.8
7.9

FY16E
7,451
2,135
723
9.5
17.4
7.5
8.3

FY17E
11,451
3,195
1,340
17.7
9.4
4.8
13.9

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research, * Consolidated

HDFC securities Institutional Research is also available on Bloomberg HSLB <GO>& Thomson Reuters

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Consolidated revenue degrew 1.8% YoY, 18.5%

below our estimate. Net
profit grew 3.3% YoY and
came 23.7% below our
estimate
EBIDTA margins contracted
20bps YOY owing to higherthan-expected other
expenses increase (279bps)
This increase was partly
negated by lower raw
material expenses (219bps
reduction YoY) and lower
employee cost (40bps
reduction YoY)
Minority interest reduced
32.7% YoY to Rs 47mn,
resulting in net profit
growth of 3.3% YoY to
Rs 131mn
Pre-sales momentum
remained muted at 0.46mn
sqft. Average realisation
stood at Rs 6,174/sqft

Quarterly Financial Snapshot (Consolidated)

Particulars
Net Sales
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
EBITDA
Interest Cost
Depreciation
Other Income
PBT
Minority Interest
Tax
APAT

2QFY16
1,550
(855)
(104)
(184)
407
(120)
(25)
34
297
(47)
(118)
131

2QFY15
1,579
(905)
(112)
(143)
418
(107)
(23)
20
308
(70)
(111)
127

YoY (%)
(1.8)
(5.6)
(7.4)
28.4
(2.6)
12.4
7.0
71.8
(3.7)
(32.7)
6.5
3.3

2QFY16
55.2
6.7

2QFY15 YoY (bps)

57.3
(219)
7.1
(40)

1QFY16
1,756
(987)
(118)
(170)
481
(136)
(23)
32
353
(70)
(139)
145

QoQ (%)
(11.7)
(13.4)
(12.4)
8.6
(15.3)
(12.0)
4.9
5.7
(16.0)
(32.0)
(15.1)
(9.3)

1HFY16
3,307
(1,842)
(222)
(354)
888
(256)
(48)
65
650
(117)
(257)
276

1HFY15
3,148
(1,784)
(199)
(262)
903
(196)
(48)
66
724
(150)
(255)
319

YoY (%)
5.0
3.3
11.5
34.8
(1.6)
30.4
(0.7)
(0.9)
(10.2)
(22.1)
1.0
(13.5)

1QFY16 QoQ (bps)

56.2
(105)
6.7
(5)

1HFY16
55.7
6.7

1HFY15 YoY (bps)

56.7
(95)
6.3
39

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Margin Analysis (Consolidated)

Material Expenses % Net Sales
Employee Expenses % Net Sales
Other Operating Expenses % Net
Sales
EBITDA Margin (%)
Tax Rate (%)
APAT Margin (%)

11.9

9.1

279

9.7

222

10.7

8.3

236

26.3
39.8
8.5

26.5
36.0
8.0

(20)
383
42

27.4
39.4
8.2

(112)
42
23

26.9
39.5
8.3

28.7
35.2
10.1

(180)
438
(180)

2QFY16
0.46
2,822
6,174

2QFY15
0.6
3,449
5,748

YoY (%)
(23.3)
(18.2)
7.4

1QFY16
0.5
3,003
6,057

QoQ (%)
(8.0)
(6.0)
1.9

1HFY16
1.0
5,825
6,068

1HFY15
1.2
6,883
5,679

YoY (%)
(20.8)
(15.4)
6.8

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Pre-sales Trend
Sales Volume (mn sqft)
Sales Value (Rs mn)
Average Realisation (Rs/sqft)
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

We expect pre-sales pickup

from 2HFY16E as new
launches hit the market

Page | 2

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

FY16E launch pipeline success - key tailwind

Average sales realisation to
remain muted owing to
high volume of new
launches
Gross sale area booked
0.6mn sqft. Cancellations
resulted in net presales area
of 0.46mn sqft

The increase in debt owing

to 100% stake acquisition in
Corolla Realty Wagholi for
a consideration of
Rs 1.64bn
KPDLs net D/E is one of the
lowest in the sector at
0.26x, adjusted for the NCD

For the 2QFY16, KPDL recorded new pre-sales

volume of 0.46mn sqft and Rs2,822mn in value.

The average realisation increased by 7.4% YoY to
Rs6,174/sqft. The total gross area booked stood at
0.6mn sqft, although some cancellations led to net
area of 0.46mn sqft.

KPDL has given a robust 12mn sqft cumulative pre-

sales guidance for FY15-17E, with an average

realisation of Rs6,000/sqft, translating into a sales
value of Rs72bn. For FY16E, KPDL has retained its
3.5mn sqft of pre-sales volume guidance

During FY16E, KPDL is expected to achieve

2.7mnsqft in new sales and Rs16,043mn in new

Pre-Sales Volume And Realization
Sales booked (mn
sqft)
Value of sales
(Rsmn)
Average Rate/sqft

1Q
FY14

2Q
FY14

3Q
FY14

4Q
FY14

1Q
FY15

2Q
FY15

3Q
FY15

4Q
FY15

1Q
FY16

2Q
FY16

0.45

0.45

0.44

0.79

0.61

0.60

0.64

1.0

0.5

0.46

2,152

2,582

2,521

4,245

3,434

3,449

3,898

4,783

5,737

5,730

5,374

5,611

5,748

6,090

FY15 FY16E % yoy

2.9

2.7

(3.6)

6,000

3,003 2,822 16,770 16,043

(4.3)

5,976

6,057 6,174

(0.8)

5,884

5,838

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

During 2QFY16, KPDLs gross debt increased by

Rs 760mn YoY to Rs 4,040mn. This was on account
of Rs 400mn payment for Corolla stake
acquisition,
Rs 200mn towards premium payout for Bangalore
project, and balance for working capital.

Adjusting for the ASK PE investment in the

Balance payment of
Rs 800mn for Corolla will
lead to net D/E bumping up
to 0.34x during 3QFY16E

sales value, this is a de-growth of 3.6% and 4.3%

YoY, respectively. Average FY16E realisation is
expected at Rs5,838/sqft, a growth of (0.8)% YoY.

Kondhwa project as NCD (equity structure)

amounting to Rs820mn and Tuscan CCDs of

Rs340mn, the net debt stands at Rs 2,280mn.

Balance payment of Rs 800mn towards Corolla
stake acquisition will be made during 3QFY16E.
This will lead to 2QFY16 net D/E of 0.26x bumping
up to 0.34x. Despite this, KPDL net D/E is one of
the lowest in the sector. With this stake
acquisition, KPDL debt would have peaked out.

Customer collections remained stable at Rs2.23bn

vs. Rs 2.65bn during 1QFY16.

Page | 3

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

FY16-17E launch visibility of

~20.0mn sqft, highest for
any developer in Pune

KPDL has taken 5-10% price

cuts in new launches to
shore up volumes

NET D/E: Increased Though Still Lower vs. Peers

(Rs mn)
Gross Debt
Structure
NCD's
Cash
Current
investments
Net debt
Net Worth
Net Debt/
equity (x)

2QFY15 3QFY15 4QFY15 1QFY16 2QFY16 Chg yoy Chg qoq Comments
Debt increase on account of Corolla stake
3,380
3,430
3,060
3,280
4,040
660
760
purchase
Deducting NCD & CCD as they are equity
(1,160) (1,160) (1,160) (1,160) (1,160)
structured as debt by KPDL and JVs
570
270
400
370
520
(50)
150
320

400

60

140

80

(240)

(60)

1,330
8,320

1,599
8,490

1,440
8,420

1,610
8,600

2,280
8,740

950

670

0.16

0.19

0.17

0.19

0.26

63.2%

39.3

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

~20mn sqft of projects with EC in place

KPDL has strong visibility with 12-month launch

pipeline ~9.1mn sqft of projects have
environmental clearance. Beyond FY16E, KPDL has
near-term visibility on Life Republic Phase II and
Sanjivani township Phase I.

Both these projects have green nods in place and

only the approvals for the master plans are
pending in case of Sanjivani township.

~9.1mn sqft of projects have

FY16E launch visibility

~10.9mn sqft of saleable

area has near-term approval
visibility. Likely launch
during FY17E

There has been delay in launch of these projects

owing to the Maharashtra government
transferring
non-PMC
(Pune
Municipal
Corporation) limit projects to a newly formed
body, PMRDA (Pune Metropolitan Region
Development Authority).

Life Republic has received master plans approval

and is ready to be launched whilst Sanjivani may
get approval in 3QFY16E. KPDL will have 10.9mn
sqft of launch visibility for FY17E.

Mumbai projects will see

pickup form 2HFY16E

Page | 4

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Project With Environmental Clearance

We have cut our estimates
to factor in delay in revenue
recognition in some of the
projects. We have also
recalibrated interest cost
upwards as KPDL has
acquired 100% stake in
Corolla Realty for a
consideration of Rs 1.6bn
We expect KPDL to deliver
10.1% pre-sales FY15-17E
volume CAGR. Realisation to
largely remain muted

Area (mn
sqft)
1.21
0.70
0.85

Project
Corolla
Three Jewels
Stargaze
Wakad

1.22

Downtown
24k Province
Life Republic R1 Sector
Giga Residency

0.51
0.73
1.00
0.32

Mumbai Projects

0.19

Exente

0.6

Life Republic - Phase II

2.0

Total
Projects with near term approval
visibility

9.1

Sanjivani Township

We have estimated 43.2%

EPS CAGR for FY15-17E

Life Republic

4.9

Total
Grand Total

10.9

Expected
launch
1QFY16
2QFY16
2QFY16

Comments

Launched
Launched
Aug-15 launch
Environmental clearance has come. KPDL looking to
3QFY16E
monetise 6 acres of land to raise Rs 600-700mn.
2QFY16 Launched
3QFY16E
3QFY16E Master plan approvals has come in 3QFY16E
3QFY16E
Jai Vijay Environmental clearance has come, demolition
and work to start in Nov-15. KPDL expected to close
3QFY16E
65,000 sqft pre-sales during launch for a Rs 1.3bn
consideration
2QFY16 Launched
Environment clearance achieved, master plan approval
4QFY16E
has come in 3QFY16E

Environment clearance has come, master plan approval

pending
Environment clearance has come, master plan approval
FY17E
advance stage
FY17E

20.0

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Strong free cash-flow

recovery from FY17E

Change in Estimates
Revenues (Rs mn)
EBITDA (Rs mn)
APAT (Rs mn)
EPS (Rs)

FY16E New
7,451
2,135
723
9.5

FY16E Old
8,770
2,406
936
12.4

% Change
(15.0)
(11.3)
(22.8)
(22.8)

FY17E New
11,451
3,195
1,340
17.7

FY17E Old
11,975
3,360
1,503
19.8

% Change
(4.4)
(4.9)
(10.9)
(10.9)

Source: HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 5

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Key assumptions and estimates

Growth (%)
FY16E FY17E

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

Residential (mn sqft)

2.9

2.7

3.5

(3.6)

Residential (Rs/sqft)

5,884

5,838

5,883

(0.8)

16,770

16,043

20,320

(4.3)

Sales (Rs mn)

6,966

7,451

11,451

7.0

53.7

EBIDTA (Rs mn)

2,044

2,135

3,195

4.5

49.6

EBIDTA Margin (%)

29.3

28.7

27.9

(68)

(75)

Net interest expense*

440

609

479

38.6

(21.4)

PAT (Rs mn)

653

723

1,340

10.7

85.3

PAT Margin (%)

9.4

9.7

11.7

33

200

EPS (Rs)

8.6

9.5

17.7

10.7

85.3

443
(51)
392
(354)

842
(140)
702
(274)

1,381
(160)
1,221
(1,587)

39

428

(367)

Comments

Volume assumptions

Total pre-sales

We forecast FY15-17E pre-sales CAGR of 10.1%, new

launches of ~9mn sqft would support this growth
Realisation to remain muted as newer phases are
0.8
being launched at 0-5% discount to existing prices
26.7 Sharp uptick in new sales during FY17E
25.7

Earnings forecast

Cash flows forecast

CFO - a
CFI - b
FCF - a+b
CFF-c
Total change in cash a+b+c

Back-ended new launches to results in 28.2% FY1517E revenue CAGR

Stable margins to result in 25.0% FY15-17E EBIDTA
CAGR
Margins to remain muted in a narrow band, increase
on account of better realization may be offset by
cost escalations in high volume mid-income housing
projects
No new land acquisition and robust proceeds from
customer advances to result in reduction in debt and
resultant interest expense
43.2% FY15-17E PAT CAGR in line with robust
execution and higher share of own projects/lower
minority interest outgo
Increase in PAT margins in line with overall
estimates

Sharp free cash-flow recovery during FY17E

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 6

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Valuation NAV target of Rs257/share

Target Price of Rs257 implies 54.8% upside

We have valued KPDL using DCF and arrived at a

The state government has already increased FSI

target price of Rs257/share. Our valuation is based

on 0.85x our end-FY17E NAV forecast. We have
given a NAV discount of 15% to KPDL. Our base
prices factor in a 5-10% price correction in the
Pune market. We have not considered the likely
upside in saleable area once the township FSI
increases from 0.5x to 1x, as the Maharashtra
government gazette is awaited.

Rs mn
Gross NAV
Less Net debt
NAV
Shares outstanding (mn)
NAV/share
Discount to NAV
Target Price

New
26,320
(3,401)
22,918
76
302
15%
257

for non-agricultural land based township and is in

the final stages of implementing it for townships
on agricultural land. KPDLs key projects that will
be affected are (1) Life Republic Township, and (2)
Sanjivani township. In terms of value, this could
add about Rs64/share to NAV and about ~20mn
sqft to the gross saleable area or (~10mn sqft
KPDL share).

comments
Value KPDL net cash flows at 17% WACC.
Net Debt as on end FY16E
As of Sep-15

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Real estate development NAV calculation methodology

We have divided KPDLs entire land bank (with

launch visibility over the next 5 years) into
residential projects (based on the information
given by the company).

We have arrived at the sale price/sq ft. and the

anticipated sales volumes for each project based
on our discussions with industry experts.

We have deducted the cost of construction based

on our assumed cost estimates, which have been
arrived at after discussions with industry experts.

We have further deducted marketing and other

costs that have been assumed at 5% of the sales

revenue.

We have then deducted income tax based on the

tax applicable for the project.

The resultant cash inflows at the project level have

been discounted based on WACC of 17% (cost of

equity 22% based on beta of 2.2x & debt/equity
ratio of 0.4x). All the project level NAVs have then
been summed up to arrive at the NAV of the
company.

From the NAV, we have deducted the net debt

and likely outgo on balance land payments as of

FY16E to arrive at the final valuation of the
company.
Page | 7

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Key valuation assumptions

In the exhibit below we highlight our sales and

Our pricing assumptions are

moderate and at a 5-10%
discount to the current
prevailing prices.

cost inflation forecasts. We expect property price

appreciation in line with WPI inflation, i.e. 5% and
peg cost inflation slightly higher at 6%. We
forecast other costs including marketing, SGA and
employee costs at 15% of sales. We have
discounted the cash flows using 17% as hurdle
rate.

Base Case Assumptions

Assumptions
Discount rate
Annual rate of inflation - sales price
Annual rate of inflation - cost of construction
Other costs - marketing, SGA, employee cost
(as % sales)
Tax rate

%
17
5
6
15
33

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Our pricing assumptions are moderate and at a 5-

10% discount to the current prevailing prices.

Construction cost assumptions are higher than the
KPDL estimates.

Base Property
Assumptions

Price

And

Location

City

Wagholi
Hinjewadi
Kharadi
Undri-NIBM
Mohamad Wadi
Aundh Annexe
Boat Club Road
Kondhwa
Viman Nagar
Aundh
Kalyani Nagar
Bavdhan
Atria
Wakad
Andheri
Vile Parle
Koramangla Block III
Hosur Road
Kannur Road

Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Pune
Mumbai
Mumbai
Bangalore
Bangalore
Bangalore

Construction
Prices
Rs/sqft
3,750
5,000
5,500
4,800
4,500
5,700
9,500
4,000
9,400
7,400
8,200
4,700
7,400
5,500
14,500
20,000
7,000
6,000
3,300

Cost
Cost
Rs/sqft
1,800
2,100
2,200
2,200
2,200
2,500
3,500
2,000
3,500
2,600
2,800
2,000
2,800
2,500
7,500
9,500
2,400
2,300
1,800

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 8

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

1% increase in average base

sale price impacts our NAV
positively by 2.7%

Every 100bps increase in

sale price inflation impacts
our NAV positively by 6.9%

100bps increase in cost

inputs decreases our NAV by
4.5%

NAV sensitivity analysis

Sensitivity to our assumption of property price

Sensitivity of NAV to changes in cost inflation

Our model is sensitive to changes in the

In our base case, we have assumed cost inflation

NAV Sensitivity To Changes In Base Sale Price

NAV Sensitivity To Change In Cost Inflation

assumptions regarding property prices. For every

1% change in the base property prices, the NAV
will change by approximately 2.7%.

% change in sale
price
NAV/share (Rs)
Change in NAV (%)

(10)

(5)

10

188
223
(27.1) (13.4)

257
0

292
13.5

324
26.1

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Sensitivity of NAV to changes in sale inflation

In our base case, we have assumed annual sale

100bps increase in
discounting rate impacts
our NAV negatively by 1.7%

price inflation of 5%. For every 100bps increase in

the annual sale price inflation, the NAV will
increase by approximately 6.9%.

NAV Sensitivity To Change In Sales Inflation

Sales inflation rates
(%)
NAV/share (Rs)
Change in NAV (%)

223
(13.4)

240
(6.7)

257
0

275
6.9

292
13.7

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

to be 6%. For every 100bps increase in

construction cost inflation, the NAV will change by
approximately 4.5%.

Cost inflation rates (%)

NAV/share (Rs)
Change in NAV (%)

4
281
9.2

5
269
4.6

6
257
0

7
246
(4.5)

8
234
(9.1)

Source : Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

The combined impact of a 100bps increase in sale

price inflation and cost inflation will be a NAV
increase of 2.4%.
Sensitivity of NAV to changes in discount rate

In our base case, we have assumed a discount rate

of 17%. For every 100bps increase in the discount
rate, the NAV will fall by ~1.7%.

NAV Sensitivity To Change In Wacc

WACC rates (%)
NAV/share (Rs)
Change in NAV (%)

15
266
3.3

16
261
1.6

17
257
0

18
253
(1.7)

19
248
(3.5)

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 9

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Income Statement (Consolidated)

Y/E March (Rs mn)
Net Sales
Growth (%)
Material Expenses
Employee Expenses
Other Operating Expenses
EBIDTA
EBIDTA (%)
EBIDTA Growth (%)
Other Income
Depreciation
EBIT
Interest
PBT
Tax
PAT
Minority Interest
APAT
APAT Growth (%)
EPS
EPS Growth (%)

FY13
7,275
191.9
4,600
279
475
1,921
26.4
183.6
365
59
2,227
363
1,864
625
1,239
(165)
1,074
215.2
14.2
215.2

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Balance Sheet (Consolidated)

FY14
7,642
5.1
4,617
292
524
2,208
28.9
15.0
152
71
2,289
457
1,832
663
1,169
(249)
920
(14.3)
12.1
(14.3)

FY15
6,966
(8.8)
3,798
428
696
2,044
29.3
(7.5)
117
101
2,060
440
1,621
602
1,018
(365)
653
(29.0)
8.6
(29.0)

FY16E
7,451
7.0
4,017
519
780
2,135
28.7
4.5
123
94
2,164
609
1,555
591
964
(241)
723
10.7
9.5
10.7

FY17E
11,451
53.7
6,538
664
1,054
3,195
27.9
49.6
135
103
3,227
479
2,748
962
1,787
(447)
1,340
85.3
17.7
85.3

Y/E March (Rs mn)

SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital
Reserves
Total Shareholders Funds
Minority Interest
Long-term Debt
Short-term Debt
Total Debt
Deferred Taxes
Long-term Provisions & Others
TOTAL SOURCES OF FUNDS
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Net Block
CWIP
Goodwill
Investments, LT Loans & Advs
Inventories
Debtors
Cash & Equivalents
ST Loans & Advances, Others
Total Current Assets
Creditors
Other Current Liabilities &
Provns
Total Current Liabilities
Net Current Assets
TOTAL APPLICATION OF FUNDS

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

758
6,947
7,705
1,491
1,278
455
1,733
(27)
10,903

758
7,297
8,055
1,740
3,131
235
3,366
(37)
13,124

758
7,657
8,415
1,926
3,387
398
3,785
(60)
14,065

758
8,266
9,024
2,167
3,837
398
4,235
(60)
15,365

758
9,497
10,255
2,613
2,837
398
3,235
(60)
16,043

796
55
533
76
9,826
762
1,122
1,827
13,537
918

903
150
218
154
12,694
851
691
3,028
17,264
1,105

972
109
218
61
14,672
1,009
405
3,922
20,008
1,175

998
109
218
81
14,800
1,225
833
4,048
20,906
1,314

1,035
109
218
101
15,686
1,725
467
4,998
22,876
1,466

3,176

4,460

6,127

5,633

6,830

4,093
9,443
10,903

5,565
11,699
13,124

7,302
12,706
14,065

6,947
13,959
15,365

8,296
14,580
16,043

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 10

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

Cash Flow (Consolidated)

Y/E March (Rs mn)
Reported PAT
Non-operating & EO items
PAT from Operations
Interest expenses
Depreciation
Working Capital Change
OPERATING CASH FLOW ( a )
Capex
Free cash flow (FCF)
Investments
INVESTING CASH FLOW ( b )
Share capital Issuance
Debt Issuance
Interest expenses
Dividend
FINANCING CASH FLOW ( c )
NET CASH FLOW (a+b+c)
Non-operating and EO items
Closing Cash & Equivalents
Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Key Ratios (Consolidated)

FY13
1,074
165
1,239
363
59
260
1,921
(346)
1,575
(229)
(575)
0
(350)
(363)
(254)
(967)
379
278
1,122

FY14
FY15
920
653
249
365
1,169 1,018
457
440
71
101
(2,676) (1,116)
(980)
443
(273)
(144)
(1,252)
299
(95)
93
(368)
(51)
0
0
1,632
419
(425)
(527)
(295)
(246)
912
(354)
(435)
39
4
(324)
691
405

FY16E FY17E
723
1,340
241
447
964
1,787
609
479
94
103
(825)
(988)
842
1,381
(120)
(140)
722
1,241
(20)
(20)
(140)
(160)
0
0
450 (1,000)
(609)
(479)
(115)
(108)
(274) (1,587)
428
(367)
0
0
833
467

Y/E March (Rs mn)

PROFITABILITY (%)
GPM
EBITDA Margin
EBIT Margin
APAT Margin
RoE
Core RoCE
RoCE
EFFICIENCY
Tax Rate (%)
Asset Turnover (x)
Inventory (days)
Debtors (days)
Payables (days)
Cash Conversion Cycle (days)
Debt/EBITDA (x)
Net D/E
Interest Coverage
PER SHARE DATA
EPS (Rs/sh)
CEPS (Rs/sh)
DPS (Rs/sh)
BV (Rs/sh)
VALUATION
P/E
P/BV
EV/EBITDA
OCF/EV (%)
FCF/EV (%)
FCFE/Market Cap
Dividend Yield (%)

FY13

FY14

FY15

FY16E

FY17E

36.8
26.4
30.6
14.8
14.4
22.7
21.2

39.6
28.9
30.0
12.0
11.7
20.8
19.2

45.5
29.3
29.6
9.4
7.9
17.4
15.3

46.1
28.7
29.0
9.7
8.3
16.5
14.8

42.9
27.9
28.2
11.7
13.9
25.1
20.7

33.5
0.7
495
30
37
488
0.9
0.1
6.1

36.2
0.6
538
39
48
528
1.5
0.3
5.0

37.2
0.5
717
49
60
706
1.9
0.4
4.7

38.0
0.5
722
55
61
716
2.0
0.4
3.6

35.0
0.7
486
47
44
489
1.0
0.3
6.7

14.2
15.0
3.5
101.7

12.1
13.1
3.1
106.3

8.6
9.9
1.3
111.1

9.5
10.8
1.4
119.1

17.7
19.0
2.7
135.3

11.7
1.6
6.9
14.6
11.9
9.7
2.1

13.7
1.6
6.9
(6.4)
(8.2)
3.0
1.9

19.3
1.5
7.8
2.8
1.9
5.7
0.8

17.4
1.4
7.5
5.3
4.5
9.3
0.9

9.4
1.2
4.8
0.1
8.1
1.9
1.6

Source: Company, HDFC sec Inst Research

Page | 11

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

RECOMMENDATION HISTORY
Kolte-Patil

Date
23-Jan-15
13-Feb-15
27-Jul-15
6-Nov-15

TP

300
250

CMP
187
207
191
166

Reco
BUY
BUY
BUY
BUY

Target
257
277
260
257

200
150

Rating Definitions
Nov-15

Oct-15

Sep-15

Aug-15

Jul-15

Jun-15

May-15

Apr-15

Mar-15

Feb-15

Jan-15

Dec-14

Nov-14

100

BUY

: Where the stock is expected to deliver more than 10% returns over the next 12 month period

NEUTRAL : Where the stock is expected to deliver (-)10% to 10% returns over the next 12 month period
SELL

: Where the stock is expected to deliver less than (-)10% returns over the next 12 month period

Page | 12

KOLTE PATIL DEVELOPERS : RESULTS REVIEW 2QFY16

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Page | 13