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Belief Systems
report that they strongly agree or strongly disagree with some statement. No problems of imputation or interpretation arise with such a
formal analysis.
However, even with this information collected in such a way as to
facilitate a test of the hypothesis of formal radicalism and the finding
that, say, 84% of the responses take the form of unqualified assent or
dissent, we are unable to say anything about the effects of forming a
mass unless we can put our results in a comparative context. But a
comparative research framework brings further difficulties: while some
variation is necessary to make effective comparisons, it may be impossible
past a certain point of difference to gather comparable data on the beliefs
of different groups. This formal approach, then, requires that we be able
to compare groups that not only have enough in common that we can
conceive of them possibly holding the same beliefs but also have enough
divergence that we can use the comparison to test theoretical claims. This
approach also requires that we are able in advance to specify the formal
properties of belief systems in terms of which groups may vary.
To develop such an approach, I will first follow Breer and Lockes
(1965) pathbreaking work in the formal sociology of knowledge and define
the belief system in a way amenable to a comparative analysis of the
formal properties of beliefs. I will then derive two formal properties that
may be used to classify belief systems and introduce two theoretical propositions linking the formal properties of social structure to these formal
properties of belief systems. These properties of social structure are the
presence of cognitive authority on the one hand and a clear, unambiguous
power structure on the other. I then discuss how the theoretical terms can
be operationalized in a unique data set. This is the Zablocki (1980) Urban
Communes Data Set, a set of comparable data on beliefs and social structure from a national sample of 60 naturally occurring intentional communities. I begin with a framework for the formal analysis of beliefs.
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Belief Systems
methodological drawbacks that make it difficult to compare groups that
may be different in terms of either (1) their variance on some beliefs or
(2) the ways in which beliefs are connected; these methods are also unable
to handle forms of interconnection that are more complex than simple
bivariate relations or unidimensionality (see Barton and Parsons 1977;
Wyckoff 1987; Martin 1994). It is possible, however, to derive a wholly
general approach to the study of constraint that is justified both theoretically and methodologically. Indeed, it is one that dovetails nicely with
one of the key underpinnings of the sociology of knowledge.
One of Durkheims ([1895] 1938) theoretical assumptions was that social
facts (which included collective representations) are experienced by the
individual as constraint. For example, Durkheim ([19023] 1961, pp. 26,
40, 42) successively compared this social constraint to walls, molds, or a
container that keeps a gas from expanding into an infinite vacuum. We
can use this insight as the basis of a measurement strategy: imagine that
in the absence of constraint, individuals were free to believe anything
they wantedfree to put together any set of beliefs, no one set of beliefs
being more or less probable than another. If we were to imagine a space
of all possible beliefs, individuals would be free to enter any area of this
space. Indeed, we can construct such a space from our finite survey:
consider the answer to every one of M questions asked of N persons a
dimension in an M-dimensional space.7 Each individuals particular set
of beliefs could then be located as a point in this space. The Durkheimian
vision implies that the constraint in this profile of beliefs is most generally defined as any concentration among the N points in this M-dimensional space. This concentration (i.e., absence of dispersion) can be
envisioned in Durkheimian imagery as the result of some process whereby
the arbitrary movement of individuals in this space has been reined in;
more exactly, it may be thought of as the most general introduction of
form to an otherwise formless distribution.
It can be shown (e.g., Martin 1999) that the best general measure (assuming that N is large relative to M) of such constraint is the negative
of Shannons (1963) entropy, H p Spi ln (pi ), where pi is the proportion
of the sample or population occupying any point in this belief space (for
a more thorough discussion, see app. B). This measure is appropriate for
nominal, ordinal, interval, or ratio data, especially where we have high
granularity to the response (i.e., many observed cases per response category); given only interval or ratio data with few observations at any
given value for any dimension, another approach would be preferable.
7
This does not necessarily imply a quantifiable form of response; if the responses are
categorical, our M-dimensional space is simply a way of envisioning a table of the Mway cross-classification of these belief questions.
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Belief Systems
so easily decomposed. In such cases, we may follow Lieberson (1969) and
Markoff (1982) and measure consensus as the probability that any two
persons in the group picked at random will agree on any belief item picked
at random; this measure was recently used by Carley (1995). This measure
has a number of advantages over other possible measures appropriate for
small-N data. First of all, it is appropriate to nominal and ordinal variables
(as opposed to a measure such as the average standard deviation, which
is only applicable to unbounded interval variables).9 Second, it is readily
interpretable (as opposed to a somewhat ad hoc measure from the entropic
approach, such as the weighted average thermodynamic probability). To
measure the tightness (constraint beyond the marginals), we may follow
Martin (1999) and standardize the observed constraint by comparing it
to a probability distribution consisting of all states consistent with the
marginals; this becomes equivalent to an exact test of multiway independence (see app. B).
While it is impossible to retrieve a measure of tightness when there is
absolute consensus, in practice it is quite possible for the two dimensions
to be independent over the actually observed ranges for data analyzed:
for example, in the data analyzed here there are many groups that are of
both rather high consensus and rather high tightness. This potential independence of the two dimensions is not true of conventional methods
that tend to force a strong negative association between constraint at the
level of the marginals and constraint beyond the marginals (Martin
1999).10 The entropic approach, then, successfully makes a decomposition
implied by other approaches.
The constraint thus defined, we recall, is a property of the dispersion
of N individuals in an M-dimensional space formed by the cross-classification of M items. But since the constraint for any M-dimensional space
can be decomposed into these two portions, consensus (homogeneity at
the level of the marginals) and tightness (interrelation of beliefs), we can
position any belief system in a two-dimensional analytic belief space,
in which one dimension is the consensus and the other the tightness. In
other words, our set of N # M pieces of data is reduced to a single point
9
While responses scored on a short scale (such as 15) may often be treated as an
interval variable for purposes having to do with comparisons of mean values, this may
not translate into an ability to make comparisons of standard deviations, since floor
and ceiling effects will tend to make the standard deviation curvilinearly associated
with the mean.
10
For these data, the correlation between the consensus and the tightness for each
domain studied was positive at least as frequently as it was negative (depending on
the precise way the tightness was computed, either five correlations were positive and
one negative, or three correlations were positive and three negative; see Martin 1997,
281).
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In neither of these cases did the believers in question initially possess
such unconventional definitions of God or particle that the relations of
implication (A C) suggested above could easily be dismissed. On the
contrary, before the current systemization, there were fierce controversies
between proponents of A and proponents of B because there was frequently (though not always) acceptance that A C and B C. But
yesterdays implied contradiction is todays synthesis. More important, in
neither caseboth tight belief systems, one involving considerable empirical research and the other involving nonecould the relation between
A and B in the current belief system have been deduced using logic.
Such impotence on the part of logic may disappoint social psychologists
but should not be surprising, as it was pointed to by Kant ([1787] 1950,
p. 50), who questioned how it was possible to make synthetic judgments
(judgments that connected two different concepts, as opposed to analytic
judgments that examined components of one single concept) without making reference to empirical experience.12 Kant famously concluded that
there must be a small number of a priori synthetic judgments that are
the necessary framework for reason, being universal and absolutely
authoritative.
Durkheim, however, could not accept that beliefswhich are, after all,
only psychological states of personscould themselves have this authority.
Instead, Durkheim ([1912] 1954, pp. 17, 148; see also Durkheim and Mauss
[1903] 1963, p. 83) argued that the framework of thought was a social
product and that any authority that beliefs possessed was ultimately social
authority (cf. Rokeach 1960, p. 8; Shapin 1994). Thus, it is only because
of the authority of the social that we can possess a tight cognitive system,
since only then can beliefs be authoritative.
Like Kant, Durkheim was interested only in a small set of fundamental
categories of thought in the Aristotelian sense, but the basic point may
be generalized. We may follow Kant and grant that people can form
empirical beliefs on their own; we may even accept that many social (i.e.,
shared) beliefs are independently generated by people on the basis of
common experience. But such a set of shared beliefs may possess no
tightness because the beliefs do not necessarily have authoritythey may
not imply one another.13
12
Upon what, then, am I to rely, when I seek to go beyond the concept A, and to
know that another concept B is connected with it? Through what is the synthesis
made possible, as here I do not have the advantage of looking around in the field of
experience? (translation modified; cf. Kant ([1787] 1930, pp. 4647).
13
Now it may well be true that acceptance of one belief does have a set of analytical
implications: thus acceptance of A implies rejection of A (the principle of non-selfcontradiction), and acceptance of B p {b1,b2, ,} may be said to imply acceptance of
b1 (the dictum de omni et nullo; see Kant [1787] 1950, pp. 192, 289, for these two
871
cases). Accordingly, accepting the blue whale is the largest living animal may indeed
imply rejection of the blue whale is not the largest animal and acceptance of the
blue whale is larger than any living bird. However, actual belief systems require
synthetic implications, not merely analytic ones.
14
See Martin (1998a) for a more developed argument regarding Durkheims and
Webers focus on the relation between authority and organized belief systems.
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Belief Systems
well educated in science, yet holding to a unification of scientific and
religious authority; Bozeman 1977), such a solution was impossible.
From this, I derive my first proposition, namely, that beliefs can only
be interrelated (whether positively through implication or negatively
through contradiction) when they are unified in a single domain of cognitive authority, and only groups with such cognitive authorities will have
tight belief systems. Such authority may be defined as follows: alter is
said to be a cognitive authority for ego if ego believes that he should be
influenced by what alter holds to be the case, at least within some demarcated realm. While such cognitive authority is hence a form of power
(or may be a base of power, to use French and Ravens [1959, p. 156]
terms), not all power is cognitive authority. We may define power more
generally by following Weber: alter may be said to have power over ego
whenever alter can secure egos compliance, which otherwise would not
be forthcoming, even over egos resistance (Weber 1978, 1:53; see also 2:
946). Webers definition is useful in that it says nothing about the bases
of the power or its effects, yet is in accord with common usage.
What transforms power into cognitive authority? First of all, there is
the specification that alter is allowed to change egos behavior with regard
to cognitions, but not necessarily with regard to other spheres (such as
ordering ego to change jobs). The cognitive authority may have authority
in other spheres, but this is not necessarily the case. Second, ego must
accept the rightness of alters influence; alters power is thus seen as
legitimate by the less powerful party.15 Thus, while power (following Webers definition) is objective and interpersonal in nature (about the actual
relation in a dyad), authority is subjective and, one might say without
distortion, personal, for the transmutation of raw power (power that
is not necessarily legitimated) into authority occurs inside the head of
the less powerful person (see Berger and Luckmann 1967, p. 93f; Berger
et al. 1998, p. 380).
I have hypothesized that the existence of such legitimate cognitive authority should lead a groups belief system to be tight in that beliefs are
linked to one another via webs of implication, so that what one thinks
about one thing affects what one thinks about others. But does that mean
that power has no effects on belief when the power is not legitimated? I
go on to propose that while unlegitimated power may not be able to
systematize beliefs (to increase the tightness of the belief system), it may
15
Note that this authority is not the same thing as Webers Herrschaft, translated as
authority by Parsons but as domination by Roth. Webers definition of Herrschaftand his concern with the legitimation of social ordersleaves no doubt that
he did not consider Herrschaft necessarily legitimate, only (to some degree)
institutionalized.
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Belief Systems
structure of their beliefs. In brief, power that is understood to apply
legitimately to matters of beliefthat is, cognitive authorityshould increase the tightness of belief systemsthe degree to which the system is
organized via webs of implication. Power that is not necessarily legitimated but produces a general sense of fixity should increase the consensus
of the belief systemthe degree to which people tend to agree. (It is worth
pointing out that I make no hypothesis regarding the effect of authority
on consensus or the effect of clarity of power on tightness.) While these
claims have not been deduced from first principles, they do follow from
some reasonable assumptions; more important, they can be submitted to
rigorous empirical tests, using a unique data set from a large number of
comparable groups. After introducing the data set to be used, I will discuss
how these theoretical concepts can be measured.
The Sample
To test these propositions, I propose to conduct a rigorous analysis of
what is, as far as I know, the only existing set of comparable data on a
large number of naturally occurring groups that satisfies the following
three criteria: (1) there exist data on the beliefs of members sufficient to
construct a comparable belief profile as defined by Breer and Locke; (2)
there exist data on the presence of authority, as well as data regarding
the ensemble of interpersonal power relations that can be used to classify
groups in terms of their power and authority structures; and (3) there is
sufficient variation both in beliefs and in power/authority structures to
allow the analyst to uncover a statistical relation between the two. This
data set comes out of the urban communes research project led by Benjamin Zablocki (see Zablocki [1980] for a full description). Aidala (1980)
provides all the instruments used to gather the data analyzed here. This
section describes the sample and data only in so far as they are of immediate relevance for the analyses here.18
Six major SMSAs (standard metropolitan sampling areas) were chosen
in all but two of the U.S. Census Bureaus major areas (combining south
Atlantic and east south central). In each, communes (defined as having
five or more adult members, either not all of the same sex or with at least
one child, and with a collective identity known to others) were picked to
fill certain distributions for key variables such as number of members,
ideological type, and year founded. Thus, the sample is multistage and
18
These data have recently been made public. Information is available at http://
sociology.rutgers.edu/UCDS/UCDS.htm.
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Belief Systems
namely, peoples self-reports on their interpersonal power relations. This
question was asked as follows: Even the most equal of relationships
sometimes has a power element involved. However insignificant it may
be in your relationship with [alter], which of you do you think hold [sic]
the greater amount of power in your relationship? (Zablocki 1980, p.
299). An equal response was also coded. The network composed of these
dyadic power relations will be used to determine the clarity versus
ambiguity of the power structure.
Unfortunately, there was no way to measure directly the presence or
absence of legitimate cognitive authority in the group. There was, however, a very good proxy, namely, the original observers codings as to what
they termed the leadership pattern in the commune. Communes were
listed by whether or not they had one, more than one, or no leaders;
whether this leadership was formal or informal; and whether there was
in addition to possible resident leaders a formal nonresident leader, as
was the case in many communes that were part of a federation led by a
charismatic, guru-type leader. These absentee formal leaders were generally those who had inspired the creation of the commune through their
ideological innovations; such leaders appeared in some religious, political,
and psychological groups. It is hence extremely likely that these absentee
leaders served as cognitive authorities to the members of these groups.
While it is not necessarily the case that every member took this leader as
a cognitive authority in all matters, such leaders did have extremely wide
domains of authority, since they had created not only a system of religious,
political, or psychological beliefs but also a recipe for day-to-day living.
Hence, we may take a group having a nonresident formal leader as an
indicator of the presence of one salient cognitive authority.
Respondents also answered a large array of attitude and belief items.
From this array, only those items that involved (at least in part) matters
of propositional belief regarding the external world were used, and not
those having solely to do with preferences, values, or self-image.21 Many
of the beliefs used clearly contain an evaluative component; however, they
also had a proposition that could be conceived of as being proved false.
Thus, to take the first two items listed in appendix A (which contains the
items used in the computation of tightness), namely, There is only one
solution to the problems of the world today, and that is Christ and This
country would be better off if religion had a greater influence in daily
life, we see that while at least the second involves a clear statement of
valuation (better), we can imagine someone who assented to this being
forced to change his mind on the basis of the experience of seeing an
21
I also included only those items also asked in the second wave, to facilitate partial
replication. See Martin (1997) for more details.
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Belief Systems
belief system, a reappraisal suggests that this may be unrealistic. Some
beliefs may simply be outside the domain of the authority in question,
others may be poor indicators, and, finally, the fact that the authority may
be invoked given a conflict between two propositional beliefs does not
mean that these two beliefs will ever have been so brought together. Such
systematization seems more likely to have occurred for beliefs that bear
on the same subject.
For this reason, we can begin by making separate estimates of the
tightness for each of the six domains noted above.23 By averaging across
all six of these and producing a general measure of within-domain tightness, we may increase the reliability of the measurement and produce our
best quantification of the degree to which holding some beliefs leads
members of the group to hold or reject other beliefs. (This assumption
will be questioned below and analyses replicated using measures of acrossdomain tightness.) The level of consensus, as we recall, is measured as
the average dyadic agreement across all belief items, that is, the probability that any two people in some group will agree on any item. All items
were used for the measurement of consensus.
Measurement of Power Structuration
We have, then, two aspects of constraint in belief systems, consensus and
tightness, which will be our dependent variables in group-level analyses.
We now turn to our independent variablesaspects of the social structure
that I claim affect the constraint in belief systems. There were two: the
first was the presence of cognitive authority, and the second was the degree
of clarity of the power structure. The measurement of the first of these
has already been discussed above; let us turn to the second and propose
a measurement strategy.
The power structure is composed of dyadic elements, specifically, the
self-reports of both members of the dyad as to the balance of power.24
Clarity of power by definition means that the members can distill a simple
structure from this ensemble of dyadic relations and hence see beyond
their own power relations and get a sense of the whole order.25 This implies
first of all a lack of independence across dyads. Further, this nonindependence must be such that (1) the power structure as a whole is mutually
23
The four seemingly most central and propositional beliefs from each topic were
chosen. The exact wording of the items is given in app. A.
24
While these are self-reports, there is no reason to believe that they are not valid
measures of the underlying state of the dyad, as we shall see, and therefore they should
not be assumed to be more subjective than other measures based on self-reports.
25
This point has already been made for these data by Bradley (1987).
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Belief Systems
structure and used to derive estimates of each members latent (unobserved) status.
This model, then, proposes one reasonable way in which the power
structure may be globally organizedinterpersonal status relations reflect
an underlying pecking order of statuses. This is not the only possible
structure that satisfies the conditions discussed above, but the major alternative, namely, differentiated hierarchies (or treelike structures that are
more complicated than a single pecking order but preserve transitivity)
could be empirically ruled out for these data.27 Furthermore, there was
no case in which deviations from the stochastic model were so great as
to lead to its rejection (Martin 1998b); hence, we can use the parameters
it produced to characterize the clarity of interpersonal power relations of
each group. In a word, the greater the average difference between members in terms of status, the greater the clarityand hence the social objectivityof the power structure. As Ridgeway (1989, pp. 14345) has
argued, when the status difference between two persons is large, this may
be understood as translating to an increased certainty that their relation
will turn out to be in the direction implied by the status difference; this
certainty then makes the existing order seem objectively inevitable. In
sum, this model embeds persons in a one-dimensional analytic space in
which the degree of distance translates directly into the degree of certainty
regarding the direction of a power relation between any two persons. This
space can then be used to characterize the power structure of a group.
Consider the distribution of the latent status parameters produced by
the model. To the extent that people are spread out in terms of their status
scores, their answers to the question on power will be more consistent
with the latent status order. Further, people will also have greater success
in predicting the actual power relations between any two other members.
For example, we may examine two hypothetical groups, A and B, each
with five members, with members of each distributed on a status continuum as portrayed in figure 3. In the first, the ability of a1 and a5those
at the very top and bottomto recognize their proper power relation is
equal to the ability of b2 and b4 in the second groupwho are only two
steps away from each other. For this reason, we may say that there is
greater clarity of interpersonal power relations in the second group than
in the first. Group B will have a greater standard deviation of status
positions than will group A, and we may hence take the standard deviation
of the members latent status positions (denoted ja ) as a continuous mea27
This involved a generalization of the model to encompass situations in which people
are structurally incomparable as a result of the differentiation of lines of power, as
well as a partitioning algorithm to place people in lines of power. No such differentiated
model was required to fit these data (Martin 1998b).
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Belief Systems
TABLE 1
Average Tightness by Type of Leadership
Cognitive Authority
Resident Leadership
None:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..........................................
Multiple informal:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..........................................
Single formal:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..........................................
Total . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
No Absentee Leader
.208
5
.221
1
.124
15
.223
4
.208
3
.153
23
.291
11
.270
16
Note.Mean refers to mean tightness for category; total N p 39; h p .463, h2 p .214.
ln (ja ) has a range in this data set from 1.74 to 3.12; the median is .21,
and the mean is .08. With these measures that link the theoretical terms
with which we began to the data set at hand, we can now go on to test
the claims advanced above.
RESULTS
and unidimensional nature of status and power relations, in contrast to measures such
as those recently proposed by Krackhardt (1994), which, being more oriented toward
organizational hierarchies, focus on the combination of directionality and reachability.
883
Model 1
Model 2
Model 3
Model 4
.105**
(.042)
...
Political . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
Psychological . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
Political # absentee . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
.117*
(.055)
.003
(.058)
.028
(.066)
.093
(.087)
...
.101*
(.056)
.005
(.058)
.016
(.066)
.079
(.086)
...
Psychological # absentee . . . . .
...
...
Consensus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
...
.099
(.066)
.008
(.063)
.028
(.071)
.174
(.142)
.016
(.165)
.125
(.172)
...
Constant . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Multiple R . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.165
.362
.174
.407
.174
.422
...
.253
(.174)
.329
.458
(see the bottom row).29 This difference persists even when we control for
the pattern of resident leadership; every row in table 1 represents a pattern
of resident leadership, and in each the value is higher in the column
representing groups with a cognitive authority present as well. Furthermore, this is true for five of the six components going into the average
(the exception is the intellectual items, for which tightness is insignificantly greater in the groups without an authority).
Of course, absentee leaders were only found in some types of groups,
namely, political, religious, and psychological; no countercultural, cooperative, or alternative family groups had these leaders. Since the countercultural, cooperative, or alternative family groups did indeed tend to
have low tightness, it might be expected that the difference being ascribed
to authority simply has to do with groups that are more ideologically
oriented. Model 1 in table 2 restates the difference of means from table 1
29
Note that one cannot in general get a good sense of the magnitude of these differences
simply by comparing the differences in means in table 1. The eta statistic here is a
better guide when it comes to determining the size of the effect. Table 1 omits groups
with informal single leaders, since none of these had absentee leaders, making it impossible to examine the effect of cognitive authority here, but it includes these groups
for purposes of calculating the eta statistic, a conservative choice. Including these
groups leads the average tightness among groups without cognitive authorities to rise
slightly (to .165).
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Belief Systems
as a regression equation and demonstrates that the difference is statistically significant. Model 2 adds controls for the three types of groups with
absentee leaders. The effect of cognitive authority is still significant, demonstrating that it was not due to generally high tightness among types of
groups that might have absentee leaders.
Even more important, it turns out that the effect of cognitive authority
is found even when we look separately within political, religious, and
psychological groups: where absentee leaders were present, the average
tightness was high (above the mean); where they were absent, tightness
was low (below the mean). This is demonstrated by model 3 in table 2,
which adds interaction coefficients between the dummy for cognitive authority and dummies for political and psychological communes. The coefficient for cognitive authority now refers only to religious groups and
is only slightly smaller than the pooled estimate; all the interactions are
statistically insignificant but positive, indicating that in all types of groups
the presence of authority increases tightness.
The Effect of Power
Let us turn to the effect of the clarity of power relations. The hypothesis
advanced above was that increased clarity, as measured by the spread of
members status parameters, should lead to increased consensus. However, there is one possible complication: five groups with valid data on
interpersonal power relations were left-wing political groups dedicated to
increasing societal equality. It seems quite logical that increased consensus
in terms of political beliefs might be related to increased equality within
these groups, and hence a decreased status spread. Of course, it is well
known that groups dedicated to the elimination of inequality may be
highly stratified themselves, but even if this is the case, it is conceivable
that reporting norms would lead members to understate power differences.
Hence, we begin by examining nonpolitical and political groups separately.
Regarding the former (N p 33), the correlation between consensus and
clarity of power turns out to be positive and highly significant (r p
.405; P p .010, one tailed). (This correlation is recast as a bivariate regression in model 1 in table 3 for purposes of comparison to later results.)
However, in political groups, the relation between consensus and clarity
of power is negative (r p .376, NS). If the explanation given above for
this is correct, however, this relationship should really only be restricted
to consensus regarding political beliefs. Accordingly, we can recompute
this correlation looking separately at consensus regarding the 14 political
beliefs and consensus regarding all other items. Doing this, we find that
among political groups the correlation between clarity of power and consensus is negative for political beliefs (r p .431 ; NS), while the relation
885
Model 1a
Model 2b
Model 3c
Model 4c
Clarity of power . . . . .
b ....................
Religious . . . . . . . . . . . . .
.021*
(.008)
.405
...
.033***
(.008)
.567
...
Political . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
...
Psychological . . . . . . . .
...
...
Countercultural . . . . . .
...
...
Alternative family . . .
...
...
Tightness . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
...
.025**
(.008)
.435
.103**
(.037)
.107*
(.042)
.055
(.047)
.050
(.042)
.085
(.042)
...
Constant . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Multiple R . . . . . . . . . . .
.556
.405
.022**
(.008)
.382
.111**
(.036)
.101*
(.040)
.056
(.045)
.050
(.040)
.082
(.040)
.111
(.058)
.520
.743
.577
.567
.498
.705
Belief Systems
Other Possibilities
Before too confidently concluding the hypotheses to be consistent with
the data, it is worth considering whether there are other possible explanations for the findings. The most natural one would be akin to reverse
causalityfar from social structure shaping beliefs, the latter shapes the
former. Such an example is easily proposed for the link between clarity
of power and consensus: perhaps where consensus reigns, people are more
willing to put up with their position in a hierarchy, as opposed to a group
in which dissensus over ideas translates into active disagreement. A more
insidious alternative explanation points to a self-selective process: perhaps
there is a naturally pliable sort of person, a happy-good-obeyer30 who,
upon joining a group, both accepts its ideology without a murmur and
accepts his position in the power structure. The correlation observed between clarity of power and consensus might arise simply because of the
distribution of these happy-good-obeyers.
While there is no reason to attempt to rule out the possibility of either
of these occurring in the world, there is some evidence that such selfselection does not account for the differences observed in these data. This
statement is justified by the analysis of a fortuitous quasi-experiment:
seven of the communes were members of a federation (an Eastern spiritual
group, which I shall call Guruland) with a common absentee charismatic
leader. All the members of these groups shared the same religious beliefs;
furthermore, their placement in any specific commune reflects accidents
of geography and orders from the central authority, which actively assigned persons to different houses. While the different Guruland communes in the sample all had the same ideology and authority structure,
there were variations in the clarity of their local power structures. If the
self-selective argument held, such variations in the clarity of power would
not be associated with variations in consensus within the subsample.
Instead, the same effects of clarity of power on consensus are found in
Guruland that exist in the other communes: communes with a high clarity
of power have higher consensus. The correlation of clarity of power with
consensus is .582 among the seven Guruland communes, actually higher
than the correlation of .492 among the other communes.31 This suggests
that self-selection is unlikely to explain this relation between consensus
and clarity of power. Further, while the experiment does not itself force
us to rule out reverse causality, it is hard to imagine how such reverse
causality would occur in the absence of a self-selective mechanism. Ac-
30
887
888
Belief Systems
the presence of these dyadic relations of influence, there is still a strong
and significant effect of the overall clarity of power relations on the degree
of consensus of any group. In sum, the most important alternative hypotheses for the existence of the patterns uncovered here, whatever their
general merits, are not likely to explain these data.
Position of Groups in the Analytic Belief Space
The findings above may be correct, but there may be a simpler interpretation. While I argued that groups with cognitive authorities would have
tight belief systems because beliefs would be connected by webs of implication, the tightness uncovered might also result from the members
simply having adopted a well-defined set of orthodox beliefs. That is,
instead of there being constrained disagreement, there might simply be a
party line, which would also produce a tight belief system (and might
be measured as such by the entropic approach, depending on how error
entered the data). If this were so, we would expect the groups with cognitive authorities to be not only of high tightness but also of high
consensus.
To check this, we can examine the distribution of communes in the
two-dimensional analytic belief space. To simplify discussion, we can divide communes into those that are above the mean values on tightness
or consensus and those that are not, consider those above to have high
tightness or consensus, and then discuss the distribution of communes
across the four quadrants of the analytic belief space portrayed in
figure 2. Figure 4 positions the communes analyzed in table 1 in an analytic
belief space in which the horizontal dimension is the consensus, going
from low on the left to high on the right; the dashed vertical line is at
the observed mean of consensus. The vertical dimension is the tightness,
going from low on the bottom to high on the top; the dashed horizontal
line is at the observed mean of tightness.
This figure demonstrates that communes with authorities are disproportionately located in the quadrant of high tightness but low consensus.
While half of the groups with cognitive authority are in this quadrant,
only one-fourth of those without authority are here. In other words, the
organization of beliefs brought about by cognitive authority is compatible
with the absence of homogenization. Yet it is not that the relation between
authority and tightness is actually due to patterns of consensus: model 4
in table 2 adds a control for consensus to the regression of tightness on
authority, and the coefficient for the presence of an authority is still statistically significant.
In sum, authority leads to tightness independent of consensus, though
it may also lead to relative dissensus. Since most of these groups had
889
890
Belief Systems
that while power can homogenize beliefs, it cannot organize them. (Model
4 in table 3 similarly demonstrates that the effect of clarity of power on
consensus is independent of the degree of tightness.)
Cross-Domain Tightness
The evidence has been consistent with the hypotheses: not only does power
homogenize beliefs without organizing them, but authority can organize
beliefsconnect them via webs of implicationwithout homogenizing
them. But the measure of overall tightness used above involved computing
the tightness within each of the six domains independently and then taking
the average across these six. If the logic laid out above is correct, however,
the presence of cognitive authority should increase tightness between domains: indeed, there should be no domains at all where there is undifferentiated authority.35 We can replicate the earlier analyses using a measure of the average cross-domain tightness for the four domains that
seemed most concrete (eliminating general life and intellectual ques35
891
None:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Median . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..................
Multiple informal:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Median . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..................
Single formal:
Mean . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Median . . . . . . . . . . .
N ..................
No Absentee Leader
Absentee Leader
.173
.123
5
.289
.289
1
.196
.184
15
.235
.213
4
.321
.294
3
.277
.312
11
Belief Systems
TABLE 5
Differential Effects of Cognitive Authority
Domain
Group Type
Religious
Political
Gender
Commune
Intellectual
Religious . . . . . . . .
Political . . . . . . . . .
Psychological . . .
4.787
*
.188
.903
3.428
.142
2.867
2.803
.408
1.275
.000
.221
1.283
.638
.278
Life
.109
.017
Note.Numbers in first two rows are ratios of average tightness in groups with authority to those
without. Third row contains average tightness in groups with authority, since denominator was zero in
all cases.
* No variance (0/0).
893
Belief Systems
also nonpolitical groups with high consensus and low clarity of power.
While one cannot rule out the possibility that this high agreement is due
largely to self-selection, it seems quite reasonable to expect that there are
other ways in which high consensus can be reached (other than through
the clarity of power).
Finally, the theoretical claims were advanced at a highly general level.
While the data used to test them came from small, face-to-face groups,
it should be noted that the same patterns are hypothesized to exist in
larger social bodies with salient propositional beliefs. The specific techniques used here to quantify the clarity of power and to measure the
presence of cognitive authority obviously cannot be transferred without
modification to comparisons across, say, nations or religious denominations. However, there is no reason to think that the general approach of
examining the formal structure of belief systems in terms of tightness and
consensus cannot be applied to mass belief systems and used to test the
hypotheses guiding this study. This would generate strong predictions
regarding which types of groups are likely to lead to polarized as opposed
to merely dispersed belief systems. To take one timely example, some
sociologists of religion have proposed new theories of secularization that
posit the increasing differentiation of authority (esp. Chaves 1993; see also
Dobbelaere 1999); critics respond by pointing to the persistence of high
religious belief (e.g., Stark 1999). But if the claims made in this article
are correct, such rebuttals are misstated, for differentiation of authority
should reduce tightness, not consensus, in beliefsa suggestion fully
within the bounds of empirical exploration.
APPENDIX A
895
Gender/Family
1. Raising children is important work.
2. By getting married, a person gives up a lot of power over the
direction his life will take.
3. With respect to relations between husband and wife these days there
are no clear guidelines to tell us what is right and what is wrong.
Commune Life
1. Communes with a formal structure tend to stifle creativity among
their members.
2. A solution to many of our societys current problems is to build
communitarianism into a widespread social and political movement.
3. I have to admit that the people whom you find living in communes
tend to be less competent in practical matters than the average
person I know not living communally.
4. For myself, communal living is not an end in itself but a means of
achieving certain goals.
General Life
1. In order to get ahead in the United States today, you are almost
forced to do some things which are not right.
2. While man has great potential for good, society primarily brings
out the worst in him.
3. Concerning mans freedom to make his own choices, I believe
man is more or less bound by the limitations of heredity and
environment.
4. Nowadays, a person has to live pretty much for today and let
tomorrow take care of itself.
896
Belief Systems
Intellectual
1. It is possible to get a relevant and valuable education at many
American universities, provided you study hard.
2. Grading college papers according to the truth of what has been
expressed in them is unfair because all truth is relative.
3. I am skeptical of anything that tries to tell me the right way to live.
4. A good teacher is one who makes you wonder about your way of
looking at things.
Note that all responses had the five-point structure (strongly agree/agree/
no opinion/disagree/ strongly disagree) and were recoded into agree/no
opinion/disagree for analysis. Additional items were used for the computation of consensus; they are eliminated here in the interests of space
but are presented in Martin (1997).
APPENDIX B
Low consensus,
low tightness:
1 ..................
2 ..................
3 ..................
High consensus,
low tightness:
1 ..................
2 ..................
3 ..................
Low consensus,
high tightness:
1 ..................
2 ..................
3 ..................
High consensus,
high tightness:
1 ..................
2 ..................
3 ..................
Informational
Entropic
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
Constraint p 0
Consensus p 0
Tightness p 0
25
4
4
4
1
1
4
1
1
Constraint p .67
Consensus p .67
Tightness ! .01
Constraint p 1.00
Consensus p .35
Tightness p .10
13
1
1
1
13
1
1
1
13
Constraint p .61
Consensus p 0
Tightness p .61
Constraint p 1.00
Consensus p 0
Tightness p 1.00
1
1
13
1
13
1
1
1
13
Constraint p .61
Consensus p .25
Tightness p .37
Constraint p 1.00
Consensus p .10
Tightness p 1.00
Constraint p 0
Consensus p 0
Tightness p 0
Note.For each of these examples, let N be the total number of observations, R the number of rows,
S the number of columns, and M the number of cells. Let fij be the frequency in cell (i,j); let pij p fij/N;
let marginals pi p Spij over all j and pj p pij over all i. Note that here R p S p 3; M p RS. Then
informational constraint p pij ln (pij) ln (M) ; and informational consensus p [ pi ln (pi) ln (R)] p
[ pj ln (pj) ln (S)]; and informational tightness p consensus constraint.
and has a bound due to the number of cells in any table, I follow the
standard practice of subtracting from the overall entropy ln [M], where
M is the number of cells.) In the first example, there is no constraint at
all; in the others, the overall constraint is the same or nearly the same,
but in the second example, it is all due to consensus, while in the third
example, it is all due to tightness. In the last example, both tightness and
consensus contribute to the overall constraint.
Because of our small samples, however, we cannot assume that we have
continuous probabilities and instead use the thermodynamic version of
entropy. Classical statistical thermodynamics begins with a distinction
between microstates and macrostates: macrostates are the recognizable
orderings of sets of particles, while microstates are the various ways in
which indistinguishable particles, by their specific arrangement, produce
the same aggregate macrostate. The analogy to contingency table analysis
is quite straightforward: what we have in the cell counts of the table is
a macrostate, and the microstates are all the possible arrangements of
898
Belief Systems
individuals in the table. If it is assumed that all microstates are equally
probable, the thermodynamic probability of any macrostate can be derived from the combinatorial formulae as follows:
Thermodynamic probability p W p
N!
,
N1!N2!N3! NM!
(B1)
where N1 is the number of particles (or persons) in the first state (or cell),
etc., N is the total number of persons, and M is the total number of cells.
The total number of microstates is MN, and the probability of any macrostate is W divided by MN. The entropy is then the natural logarithm
of this probability.
However, once the connection of entropy to probability has been made,
there is no reason to prefer entropy to probability, since there is a monotonic relation between the two. Since any meaningful standardization
will take into account the entire probability distribution of this statistic
under some null hypothesis, it does not matter which is used. We want
only to see what proportion of observed macrostates are more improbable
than the observed macrostate. We can compute the distribution of possible
microstates associated with all macrostates and then determine the number of macrostates that are less probable than the observed one (for details,
see Martin 1999). This is what should be taken as the degree of constraint
in the belief space.
The same technique can be used to test whether there is constraint
above the marginal level by making permutations that have the marginals
fixed to the observed values and comparing the number that have greater
constraint than observed to the number that have less constraint (since
the constraint due to the marginals is the same in all cases in this new
distribution, the constraint above and beyond the marginals is reflected
in the total constraint). This is our measure of tightness referred to above.
These small-sample measures are also given in the last column of
table B1. As we can see, they differ in magnitude but not in pattern from
the informational entropy results. The correspondence is not surprising,
since the average cell frequency for these tables is 5 (45/9), generally
considered the minimum at which asymptotic statistics become appropriate. The overall constraint is considered to be 1 for all but the first
case, as the chance of such a distribution under equiprobability is vanishingly small for each. The tightness is similarly 1 for the last two examples but is relatively low (.098) for the second.
The small-sample consensus (the probability that any two dyads picked
at random will agree on a belief picked at random) is also given for these
899
1
N(N 1)
[
R
( ) ( )]
R
fij ( fij 1)
ip1 jp1
fij fik
ip1
jp1 kpj1
fij fkj
jp1
ip1 kpi1
(B2)
For N p 45 in a 3 # 3 table, it can be seen that the minimum consensus
is .32, which is what would be computed for the first and third examples
in table B1. For purposes of illustration, we may adjust the consensus C
from equation (B2), by computing C p (C Cmin )/(1 Cmin ), a quantity
that goes from 0 when C p Cmin to 1 when C p 1. It is these values
that are given in table B1. Note that the consensus of the second example
b is judged higher than that of the fourth example by both the informational entropic measure and the small-sample consensus measure.
APPENDIX C
prob(x p A)
p a a b,
(prob(x
p B))
(C1)
prob(x p C)
p a a b,
(prob(x
p B))
(C2)
ij
ij
ln
ij
ij
Belief Systems
j, and b is a parameter that measures the groups propensity to claim
equality (without b, the distribution would necessarily be equiprobable
whenever ai p aj). These parameters can be estimated by maximumlikelihood methods; this model and its details are discussed in greater
detail in Martin (1998b).
APPENDIX D
TABLE D1
Correlations
Variable
1. Consensus . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
...
(44)
.311*
(54)
.319*
(54)
.290
(38)
.174
(44)
.311*
(54)
...
(54)
.607***
(54)
.139
(38)
.362*
(44)
.319*
(54)
.607***
(54)
...
(54)
.130
(38)
.171
(44)
.290
(38)
.139
(38)
.130
(38)
...
(40)
.168
(35)
.174
(44)
.362*
(44)
.171
(44)
.168
(35)
...
(44)
2. Within-domain tightness . . .
3. Across-domain tightness . . .
4. Clarity of power . . . . . . . . . . . .
5. Cognitive authority . . . . . . . . .
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904
Errata
In the March 2002 issue, Roger V. Goulds year of birth was incorrect.
The dates should have been listed as 19622002.
***
An error appeared in formulae printed at the bottom of table B1 in John
Levi Martins Power, Authority, and the Constraint of Belief Systems
(107 [4]: 861904). A minus sign instead of a plus sign was used in the
right-hand side of two equations, which should have appeared thus:
constraint p S[p ln (p)] ln (M),
and
informational consensus p [S[p ln (p)] ln (R)] [S[p ln (p)] ln (S)].
Although the error does not affect the substance of the discussion, the
formula as published does not reproduce the (correct) numbers in the
table. The author thanks James Moody for pointing to the discrepancy.
***
In table 2 of Dalton Conley and Kristen Springers Welfare State and
Infant Mortality (107 [3]: 768807), the coefficient for log LBW should
be .363, not negative as it appears in the published text. The editors
regret the error, which was introduced in rekeying during production.
***
In the July issue, the name of one of the coauthors of The State, International Agencies, and Property Transformation in Postcommunist Hungary (Hanley, King, and Toth [108:12667]) was listed incorrectly. It
should have appeared as Janos Istvan Toth. We apologize for the error.
531