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MAIN REPORT
JULY 2014
A Joint Venture of:
Associated Consulting Engineers ACE (Pvt.) Ltd.
1 C/2, M. M. Alam Road, Gulberg- III, Lahore
Suit No.9, 4th Floor, Amaan Business Centre, Block H-3, Johar Town, Lahore
VOLUME I:
MAIN REPORT
VOLUME II:
VOLUME III:
ANNEXURES
PART 1 OF 3
PART 2 OF 3
PART 3 OF 3
VOLUME IV:
DRAWINGS
CHAPTER
0
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Feasibility Study
Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project
Executive Summary
0.1
Introduction
This Chapter of the Report summarizes the findings of the Feasibility Study carried out for
the Project. According to the study, Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project is marked to
have an installed power generation capacity of 377 MW against 340 MW as originally
estimated in the identification studies conducted earlier by GTZ. Accordingly, the Annual
Energy is now estimated as 1579 GWh against 1,553 Gwh indicated in GTZ Report. Salient
Features of the Project and Project Layout Plan are placed at the end of this Chapter.
All relevant desk and field studies including Field Investigations have been conducted as a
part of Feasibility Study. Geological, Environmental and Seismic Studies have not indicated
any major adversity that may challenge/threaten further development and construction of the
Project.
The Feasibility Report has been prepared by a Joint Venture of three local Consultants
including ACE, EGC and TEAM Consultants, ACE being the lead Consultant.
0.2
Project Location
Gahrait-Swir Lasht HPP is located on Chitral River which is the main river that passes
through Chitral Valley. It flows from north to south and enters Afghanistan near Arandu
Town. The dam site is proposed about 35 km downstream of Chitral Town. Powerhouse site
is located about 8 km downstream of Drosh Town near Swir Lasht Village on the right bank
of Chitral River.The national grid at Chakdara is at a distance of about 170 km from the
powerhouse site. Water from the dam will be conveyed through a 10 km long tunnel to an
underground power house, about 8 km downstream of Drosh town near Swir Lasht village.
0.3
Significant information about the geology of the project components / parts has become
available, based on which the feasibility of the project has been studied.
Results of Geological and Geotechnical Investigations carried out are presented in this
report and evaluation of the foundation conditions and the parameters established for use in
the design of various surface and underground structures, including the design of rock
excavations, have been defined. Generally the strength of the rocks are not likely to pose
any serious problem for the structures.
Certain Geotechnical Investigations remained outstanding due to various unavoidable
circumstances.Further geological and geotechnical investigations should be carried out at
the detailed design stage of the project.
0.4
The project is located in a region which is seismically active due to the proximity of the
collisional boundary of the Indian and the Eurasian plates. The seismicity of the area is
depicted by small to major earthquake activity. The main active tectonic features within 100
km of the site, which govern the ground motion at the project site, are the Main Karakoram
Thrust (MKT), Reshun Thrust, Tirich Mir Thrust and the Hindukush Deep Seismic Zone.
| Version: Final |
0-1
Feasibility Study
Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project
The recommended PGA value for Safety Evaluation Earthquake (SEE) associated with
horizontal ground motions is 0.42g which has a return period of 3,000 years. The dam safety
critical features like dam body, bottom outlet and spillway gates are recommended to be
designed to maintain their integrity during shaking from SEE ground motions.
The PGA of 0.18g having a return period of 145 year is recommended for the project
structures to remain operative for horizontal ground motion associated with Operating Basis
Earthquake (OBE). All the appurtenant structures of the dam, tunnel and power house are
recommended to be designed for PGA of 0.26g which is associated with horizontal ground
motion of Design Basis Earthquake (DBE).
0.5
The Project is optimized with a maximum reservoir level of 1337m asl and design discharge
of 430 m3/s, which has availability approximately 26% time of year. Installed capacity of
377MW and Annual Energy equivalent to 1,579Gwh has been attributed to the Project with a
Plant Factor of 49%.
0.6
Surveys and studies are indicative of Low-Adverse Impact resulting from implementation of
Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project. All the impacts can be mitigated without difficulty.
0.7
Construction Planning
It is presumed that the construction of this Project shall be carried out as Engineering,
Procurement & Construction (EPC) Package. At this stage, Consultants have carried out an
exercise to establish broad outlines which identify the extent, viability and interdependence
of various activities involved in construction as shown in the Project Construction Schedule
given in Chapter-15 of this Report. The Project can be completed in a Period of 96 months,
out of which 12 months are for pre-construction activities and 84 months for construction.
0.8
Cost Estimate
Cost estimates of the Project are prepared on the basis of Feasibility Level Designs and
Drawings. Unit Rates of various items used for cost estimation are derived from rate
analyses.
Rates have also been obtained from suppliers / manufacturers wherever applicable. All rates
pertain to the year 2013 price level. While working out the cost of each Project component,
appropriate contingencies for Civil Works and E&M items have been included.
Total Project cost has been worked out as US$ 1,838 million or Rs.181,115 million
which also includes US$ 441.46 million as Interest during construction (IDC).
0.9
Economic viability of the Project has been determined using the Alternative Cost approach,
wherein the investment of Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project is compared with the
investment of alternative thermal power plants.
EIRR in comparison with thermal plant of equivalent capacity is 23.71% in case of furnace
oil plant and 13.58 % in case of gas operated plant. Benefit-Cost Ratio in each of the two
cases is 2.05 and 1.15 respectively.
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0-2
Feasibility Study
Gahrait-Swir Lasht Hydropower Project
To test the robustness of the Economic appraisal of the Project, a sensitivity analysis has
been carried out. This test has been performed only for the combined cycle plant (in case of
furnace oil) as this alternative has been compared with the proposed Project.
The above mentioned analysis has also been tested for its robustness for Cost increase of
10 % and Benefit decrease of 10%. The cumulative effect of the above two conditions gives
an EIRR of 19.75 % and B.C Ratio as 1.68 .Study of Certified Emission Rate (CER)
indicates a saving of emission of 757,920 tons of CO2 per annum compared to furnace oil
plants and 663,180 tons/annum if gas is considered as the alternative source of energy
Financial Analysis has indicated B.C Ratio greater than one (1). It is also seen from the
Financial Analysis that repayment of the loan installments will be easily manageable.
| Version: Final |
0-3
SALIENT FEATURES
1. Location
2. Organization
3. Hydrology
Catchment area (dam site)
3
Mean Monthly Discharge (m /sec)
Design Flood (Q1000)
13418.5 km
80.8 to 978.50
3
3538 m /sec
4. River Diversion
Design Flood (Q10 year)
No of Diversion Tunnels
Shape
Size (W x H)
1790 m /sec
4 Nos.
D-shaped
7.6 m x 7.6 m
Tunnel Spillway
4 Nos.
D-shaped
7.6 m x 7.6 m
Flip Bucket
4 Nos.
7.00 m x 3.00 m
1324.00 m.asl.
4 Nos
12 m x 9 m (D-Shaped)
Pressurized-D shape
4 Nos
525 m.
0.2 m /sec
14.30 m x 20.30 m
3
86 m /sec
2 Nos
9. Headrace Tunnel
Type
No of Headrace tunnels
Average Length
Horseshoe
2 Nos
10,214 m
Diameter
9.50 m
71 m.
02 Nos
10 m.
92.20 m.
02 Nos
6.50.m.
78 m.
6.5 m.
13. Head
Gross head
Head loss (single waterway)
Net Head
109.28 m.
9.12 m
100.16 m
14. Discharge
Design Discharge
430 m /sec
15. Powerhouse
Type
Size (Lx WxH)
Underground
113 m x24 m x35 m
D-Shaped
3980 m
7 m x 6.5m
Francis
4 Nos
3
107.50 m /sec
4 Nos
176.5 rpm
377 MW
94.25 MW
20. Energy
Annual Energy
Plant Factor
1579 Gwh
49%
110,737 M.Rs
181,116 M.Rs
2.05
23.71
13.58 %
4.874 M.US$
84 months