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A R T I C L E I N F O
A B S T R A C T
Article history:
Received 28 February 2008
Accepted 16 April 2008
With the advent of the year 2008, Pakistan faces a gap of 4500 MW between the demand and supply of
electricity, registering a shortfall of 40%. The article provides an overview of the key dimensions of the
crisis, i.e. growing gap between demand and supply, diminishing indigenous oil and gas reserves, rising
energy cost and security concerns. It also explores hydropower, solar energy, biomass and wind power as
sustainable energy options for the country. In has been found that the total estimated hydropower
potential is more than 42 GW out of which only 6.5 GW has been tapped so far. In terms of available solar
energy Pakistan is amongst the richest countries in the world, having an annual global irradiance value of
19002200 kWh/m2. Despite that fact that the biomass plays an important role in the primary energy
mix by contributing to 36% of the total supplies, it has not managed to break into the commercial energy
market. Wind power, also been identied as a potential source of energy, is yet to take off.
2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords:
Sustainability
Renewable energy
Fossil fuels
Hydropower
Solar energy
Biomass
Wind power
Contents
1.
2.
3.
4.
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Present energy scenario of Pakistan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.1.
Energy resources and their contribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.2.
Energy demand and supply . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
2.3.
Rising energy cost . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Renewable energy in Pakistan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.1.
Hydropower . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.2.
Solar energy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.3.
Biomass. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3.4.
Wind power . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
1. Introduction
Provision of sufcient, secure and affordable energy is
indispensable to continued human development. Throughout
the course of history, with the evolution of civilizations, the
human demand for energy has continuously risen. The global
demand for energy is rapidly increasing with increasing human
population, urbanization and modernization. The world heavily
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narrowed. Last year that gap all but disappeared. The consequences of a shortfall would be immense. One of the immediate
impacts would be rocketing oil priceswithin rst 2 months of
2008, oil prices have twice crossed the psychological limit of $100
per barrel. It has been forecasted that if consumption begins to
exceed production by even the smallest amount, the price of oil
could soar above $100 a barrel which would result into a global
recession [2].
The enormous amount of energy being consumed across the
world is having adverse implications on the ecosystem of the
planet. Fossil fuel and nuclear energy production and consumption
are closely linked to environmental degradation that threatens
human health and quality of life, and affects ecological balance and
biological diversity. It is therefore clear that if the rapidly
increasing global energy needs are to be met without irreparable
environmental damage, there will have to be a worldwide drive to
exploit energy systems that should not endanger the life of current
and future generations and should not exceed the carrying capacity
of ecosystems. Renewable energy sources that use indigenous
resources have the potential to provide energy services with
almost nil emissions of both air pollutants and greenhouse gases.
This work presents an overview of the current energy scenario
for Pakistan in terms of its energy demand and supply, challenges
and prospects. For secure and sustainable energy future, various
renewable energy options have been explored. Hydropower and
solar energy resources have been analyzed to determine their
technical and economical viability.
2. Present energy scenario of Pakistan
Availability of energy in any country has a strong relationship
with its economic and social stability. The per capita energy
consumption is an index to measure the prosperity of any society.
An overview of the energy scenario indicates that Pakistan is an
energy decient country. The per capita electricity consumption
was 425 kWh in 200405. Over the same period, the world average
per capita electricity consumption was about 2516 kWh, almost
six times larger than that of Pakistan [3].
Table 1
Historic electricity generation and capacity mix of Pakistan
Entity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Hydro
Nuclear
Electricity
generation
capacity (MW)
Shares (%)
1980
2007
1980
2007
0.015
0.177
1.929
1.847
0.137
0.150
3.019
9.254
6.494
0.462
0.4
4.3
47.0
45.0
3.3
0.8
15.6
47.8
33.5
2.4
over the last few decades and the country is facing serious energy
shortage problems. The energy supply is not increasing by any
means to cope with the rising energy demands. As a result the gap
between the energy demand and supply is growing every year. The
number of electricity consumers has increased due to rapid
urbanization, extension of electricity grid supply to un-electried
areas and village electricationthe number of consumers has
increased from 8.2 million in 199293 to 15 million in 200506
registering a growth of 83% over the last 15 years [6]. Estimates
indicate that the energy demand in Pakistan is likely to increase
three-fold by the year 2050. On the other hand, the situation with
the supply end is not encouraging. The indigenous oil and gas
reserves are limitedoil and gas reserves are left only for 19 and 10
years, respectively [7]. Abundantly available local coal reserves
have not been capitalized to play a meaningful role in energy
supply matrix of the country. The pace of new hydropower
generation facilities has also slowed down over the last two
decades for a number of reasons and nuclear power so far has
managed to contribute to less than 3% of the total electricity supply
mix.
With the advent of 2008 the country is facing an electricity
decit of over 4000 MW, a 40% of the total demand. In business as
usual scenario by 2010 the decit could reach over 8000 MW [8].
The balance of evidences thus suggest that the already existing gap
between demand and supply is set to grow rapidly in the coming
years unless quick and meaningful measures are taken to add to
the power generation capacity of the country.
Bunji
Bhasha
Dasu
Kalabagh
Thakot
Patan
Kohala
Neelum Jhelum
Munda
Akhori
Dubar Khwar
Allai Khwar
Golen Gol
Khan Khwar
5400
4500
4000
3600
2800
2800
1100
969
750
600
130
121
106
72
20,750
19,381
11,400
15,200
4,800
5,150
595
463
436
306
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crucial for the country to adopt a diverse energy strategy which not
only decreases dependence on vulnerable energy supply channels
but one that also explores secure and sustainable energy resources
such as renewables.
Pakistan has proven potential for renewable energy, i.e.
hydropower and solar energy. Exploitation of these resources
can enhance diversity in Pakistani energy supply market, secure
long-term sustainable energy supplies, cut down import dependency and also reduce atmospheric emissions. They can also
provide commercially attractive options to meet specic needs for
energy services (particularly in rural areas), create new employment opportunities, and offer possibilities for local manufacturing
of equipment. The prospects of some of the crucial renewable
energy technologies in Pakistan are discussed in the coming
sections.
3.1. Hydropower
levels of fuel poverty in the society. The rocketing fuel price has a
direct knock on effect on all other living expenses making things
unaffordable for a large proportion of population. The situation is
decreasing the levels of sustainability in the society (Table 2).
3. Renewable energy in Pakistan
Renewable energy as the name implies is the energy obtained
from natural sources such as solar, wind, solar energy, hydropower, biomass energy and geothermal energy. Renewable energy
sources have also been important for humans since the beginning
of civilization; biomass, for example, has been used for heating,
cooking and steam production; wind has been used for moving
ships; both hydropower and wind have been used for powering
mills to grind grains. Renewable energy sources that use
indigenous resources have the potential to provide energy services
with zero or almost zero emissions of both air pollutants and
greenhouse gases. Renewable energy resources are abundant in
nature and are acknowledged to be vital and plentiful enough to
meet many times the entire worlds energy demand as shown in
Fig. 2.
The prevailing electricity shortage in Pakistan is an indication of
an unsustainable energy scenario for the country. It is therefore
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Table 3
Electricity generation cost in 2006, by fuel type
Energy source
Cost/kWh
Pak Rs.
US cents
Hydro
Coal
Gas
Nuclear
0.3
1.3
2.4
2.7
0.5
2.1
4.1
4.5
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3.3. Biomass
Biomass plays an important role in the primary energy mix of
Pakistan. The countrys large agricultural and livestock sector
produces copious amounts of biomass in the form of crop residues
and animal waste, such as bagasse, rice husk, and dung, much of
which is currently collected and used outside the commercial
economy as unprocessed fuel for cooking and household heating.
These biomass-based fuels, in conjunction with wood contribute to
almost 36% of the total primary energy mix. Sugar mills in the
country use bagasse for cogeneration purposes and have recently
been allowed to sell surplus power to the grid up to a combined
limit of 700 MW [19]. Apart from this, biomass-based fuels have
not managed to break into the commercial market. In past, pilot
projects of biogas digesters have been launched. The use of biogas
digesters in rural households, after a promising start, has stagnated
due to withdrawal of external subsidies. In addition, municipal
solid waste produced by a large urban population is presently
openly dumped, which could instead be disposed of in proper
landlls or incinerated to produce useable methane gas or
electricity.
Pakistan holds a healthy potential for biofeuls that can help
country partly meet its oil requirements, 80% of which are
presently being met through imports [20]. Recently, initiatives
have been undertaken to promote biofuels, as part of which, in
2006, in three petrol stations (one in Karachi, Lahore and
Islamabad each), fuel ethanol is being blended with petrol in a
1:9 ratio [21]. Pakistan Sugar Mills Association (PSMA) has been
closely involved in the biethanol advancement program. As of
2007, out of more than 70 sugar mills in the country only 6 have
facilities to transform raw molasses into fuel quality ethanol. With
the current production level of sugarcane crop, Pakistan has a
potential to produce over 4,00,000 tones of ethanol. Nonetheless,
less than one third of it is being currently produced [22]. Most of
the pilot projects launched so far being of cosmetic value the wider
perception is that despite the potential advantages, progress in
promoting bioethanol lacks policy impetus. State of affairs is that
most of the bioethanol base is being exported in different forms, i.e.
molasses, industrial alcohol and ethanol. There is also a considerable potential for bodiesel production. One of the prospective
sources in this regard is castor bean. It is a self-gown plant seen in
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Table 4
Comparison of potential energy crops for biodiesel production
Crop
kg oil/ha
Castor beans
Corn (maize)
Mustard seed
Rapeseed
Sesame
Soybean
Sunowers
1188
145
481
1000
585
375
800
4. Conclusions
In order to ensure a sustainable energy future, Pakistan needs to
diversify its supply mix. Exploitation of indigenous energy resources
should be at the heart of the future strategies to enhance energy
security of the country through lessening reliance on energy imports.
Renewable energy has a crucial role to play in Pakistans sustainable
energy future. Hydropower is technically and economically the most
mature form of renewable energy. Of the available 42 GW potential,
only 15% have been exploited so far. Hydropower is closely linked
with the economic prosperity of the country and has a leading role to
play in future energy scenario of Pakistan. Besides large-scale
hydropower generation facilities, small to medium scale ones are
also critical to be developed to contribute to the national electricity
supply mix. The economics of hydropower considerably depends
upon the typical site. Analysis suggests that almost 90% of the hydropower facilities in Pakistan incur a payback period of 2.54 years.
Another important form of renewable energy that is abundantly
available in Pakistan is solar energygures show that the annual
incident solar radiation in the country is 19002200 kWh/m2. Such
a high level of available solar energy can be effectively capitalized
both for solar electric and solar thermal applications. Solar water
heating, one of the fastest growing renewable technologies in the
world, exhibits a healthy potential in Pakistan with a reported pay
back period of less than 3 years.
Biomass in the form of crop residues and animal waste plays an
important role in the primary energy mix by contributing to 36% of
the total supplies. It, however, has not managed to break into the
commercial energy market. There is a signicant potential for
commercial exploitation of municipal solid waste and biofuels. In
terms of wind power, the country has not yet been able to exploit
its resource. There are, however, plans to produce 700 MW of wind
power by 2010.
References
[1] Renewables in global energy supply: an IEA Fact Sheet, International Energy
Agency Statistics; 2007.
[2] World oil supplies are to run out faster than expected, The Independent; 14
June 2007.
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