You are on page 1of 10

1

IATA Traffic Flows Between Regions


Schd. Passenger
(2013F)

Total Revenue
(2013F)

3.1
Billion

671
Billion USD

Percentage of Total Scheduled Revenue Passenger-Kilometres


Source: IATA Watts (published in 2012), IATA Financial Forecast March 2013

Industry Aircraft Delivery and Financing Outlook

Capital Providers
Export Credit Agencies
Commercial Banks
Lessors
Public Debt /Capital
Markets
Private Equity / Hedge
Funds
Tax Equity
Airframe and Engine
Manufacturers

Source: Boeing, Goldman Sachs

18

2
Fleet Development

17

Total of 8.4 Billion USD financing has been done.

97

Fleet Group

97

100

A/C
New Orders
A330
20
Wide Body
B777
20
A320 CEO/NEO
117
Narrow Body
B737 NG/MAX
95
Total
252

83

%1

2008

VDE

85

%5103 %25
102
1
%25
18

1
17

67

%24

84

2007
2007
2005

100

%1

2006

127
4

18

133

%19
20

29

%5

%5

2008
%19

2009

179

45

36

%19 159

334
%19
%14

%13

155

138

124

109

202
35
%5
%13

105
2008

100
235

158

%25
2009
2008

2007

74

100

17

83

116

97

83

100

415

%13

2010
2009

2010

%76

%14

2011

2009
2010 2011

%17
2012

2013

20

2020

Cargo
Narrow Body
Wide BodyGVDE
GVDE
GEN
AJET
KARGO AJET
GENDAR
GVDE
AJET
KARGO
DAR GVDE
GEN
GVDE

Seat Capacity
2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

CAGR

12k

15k

28k

51k

80k

10 %

Financial Development / Revenue & Operating Profit


(Million USD)

Total Revenue

(Million USD)

Operating Profit

700
600

9800

494

500

9749

389

8318

400
255

300

7072
215

247

200

4719

100

100

1539

1362

1961

1898

1964

-100

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

-200
-300

11800

585

571

2318
70
2005

2834

3737

4552

5800

5448
299

3800
1800

60

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

-200

2012

-2200

-151
-216

-4200

Pax Revenue Split by Geography


Far East
22%

Europe
33%

7800

Ebitdar Margin %

30
22.3

Domestic
14%
Middle
East
13%
Africa America
8%
10%

20

10

22.9
20.2
17.5

16.5

15.9

14.1

AVG (2006-2012):19%

0
2006
** 2013F :Forecasted

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012
5

Turkey and Turkish Airlines Growth


2002 2012 Passenger Growth Rates

RPK Growth %

30%

30%

27%
25%
23%

275%

19%

20%

227%

19%

19%

15% 15%

15%

13%

27p

17%

14%
9%

10%

79%

6%

6%

6%

6%
4%

5%

5%
3%

2%
2%
0%

world

tr

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
-2%
-1%
3M
-3%

tk

Next 20 years,
World passenger traffic (RPK) growth
rate %4.7

-5%

-4%
World RPK Growth

THY RPK Growth

Linear (World RPK Growth)

Linear (THY RPK Growth)

Population growth rate %0.9


Source : IATA Financial Forecast, ICAO 2011, Airbus GMF 2012
6

3rd Airport in

Global Rankings

ISTANBUL

76.5 million km2


Area

500
TK is flying to more countries than

TK is the 4 th largest airline in terms

any other airline in the world.

of network size

Airline

Domestic

International

UNITED AIRLINES

229

152

381

DELTA AIRLINES

218

102

320

AMERICAN AIRLINES

169

100

269

TURKISH AIRLINES

39

190

229

Total

Aircraft Park Positions (Pahse 2)

150 million
PASSENGERS CAPACITY (Phase2)
A candidate for

3rd Biggest (After Phase 1)


& Biggest (After Phase 2)

Source: OAG (2013 May)

in the World

Network Development

2002 THY Network 103 Destinations (26 Dom, 77 Int)


2013 - Current 125 New Destinations (Dom 13, Int 113)
Planned Destinations (32 Destinations)

Financing Alternatives and Outlook

Unsecured Bond

EETC
(2-Tranches
Blended)

Sukuk

10 years

5 10 years

9 11 years

5 7 years

%7.5 - %8

%4.5 - %5.5

%4 - %5

%4.5 - %5.5

ECA
(2nd Category)

JOLCO

Operational

Tenor

12 years

9.5 years

Cost

%3.6 - %4.3

%3.3 - %3.8

Transition: ECA Commercial, New ASU increased ECA premiums, Limited ECA credit lines

Heading Towards :
More diversified sources of financing
Paralel to the industry transition, less dependent on conventional financing methods (ECA,
EXIM), more towards commercial financing sources and capital markets (EETC, unsecured
bond)
Focus on longer term financing (up to 14 years)
Focus on managing maturity risk, debt service in line with operational cash generation
9