MPP 611 Applied Statistics Fall 2015

Homework Assignment #2 Due: Sep 30, 2015 - 11:15am (Beginning of class)

Important instructions (please read carefully)
This homework assignment comprises 5 questions carrying equal points (5 x 4=20 total points).
This homework has to be submitted as a hard copy. Please put your name on your assignment.
Start each answer on a fresh page and answer them in the sequence below.
After having attempted all the problems yourself, you may if you like discuss them in groups.
If you choose to do so, you will need to write the names of the people in your group on your
answer sheet (failure to do so will be considered plagiarism). Each person in the group still
has to hand in individual answers.
Plagiarized work will automatically receive a grade of 0 (zero).
Questions
1. (a) Factory workers are constantly encouraged to practice zero tolerance when it comes to
accidents in factories. Accidents can occur because the working environment or conditions themselves are unsafe. On the other hand, accidents can occur due to carelessness
or so-called human error. In addition, the workers shift 8:00 A.M.-4:00 P.M. (day shift),
4:00 P.M.-0:00 A.M. (evening shift), and 0:00 A.M.-8:00 A.M. (graveyard shift) may be
a factor. During the last year, 300 accidents have occurred. The percentages of the
accidents for the condition combinations are as follows:
Unsafe
Human
Shift
Conditions Error
Day
5%
32%
Evening
6%
25%
Graveyard
2%
30%
If an accident report is selected randomly from the 300 reports,
i.
ii.
iii.
iv.

What is the probability that the accident occurred on the graveyard shift?
What is the probability that the accident occurred due to human error?
What is the probability that the accident occurred due to unsafe conditions?
What is the probability that the accident occurred on either the evening or graveyard
shift?

(b) The probability that a doctor correctly diagnoses a particular illness is 0.7. Given that
the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis, the probability that the patient enters a law
suit is 0.9. What is the probability that the doctor makes an incorrect diagnosis and the
patient sues?
2. The scores on the Psychomotor Development Index (PDI), a scale of infant development, are
approximately normal with mean 100 and standard deviation 15.
(a) An infant is selected at random in Astana. Find the probability that PDI is below 90.
(b) A study uses a random sample of 25 infants from Astana. Specify the sampling distribution of the sample mean PDI, and find the probability that the sample mean is below
90.

(c) Would you be surprised to observe a randomly selected infant with PDI score of 90?
Why (or why not)?
(d) Would you be surprised to observe a random sample of 25 infants from Astana with
mean PDI of 90? Why (or why not)?
3. (a) The manager of an automobile dealership is considering a new bonus plan designed to
increase sales volume. Currently, the mean sales volume is 14 automobiles per month.
The manager wants to conduct a research study to see whether the new bonus plan
increases sales volume. To collect data on the plan, a sample of sales personnel will be
allowed to sell under the new bonus plan for a one-month period.
i. Develop the null and alternative hypotheses most appropriate for this situation.
ii. Comment on the conclusion when H0 cannot be rejected.
iii. Comment on the conclusion when H0 can be rejected.
(b) The manager of the Diplomat Hotel stated that the mean guest bill for a weekend is
60,000 Tenge or less. A member of the hotels accounting staff noticed that the total
charges for guest bills have been increasing in recent months. The accountant will use a
sample of future weekend guest bills to test the managers claim.
i. Which form of the hypotheses should be used to test the managers claim? Explain.
H0 : 60, 000 H0 : 60, 000 H0 : = 60, 000
HA : < 60, 000 HA : > 60, 000 HA : 6= 60, 000
ii. What conclusion is appropriate when H0 cannot be rejected?
iii. What conclusion is appropriate when H0 can be rejected?
4. There are three guns to be tested. Each of the three guns is being tested by firing 12 shots at
a target from a clamped position. Gun A was not clamped down hard enough and wobbled.
Gun B was clamped down in a position that pointed slightly to the left, due to a misaligned
sight. Gun C was clamped down correctly.
(a) Which of the following patterns of shots belongs to gun A, gun B, and gun C?

(b) Which guns are biased?

(c) Which gun has minimum variance?
(d) Which gun has the largest mean squared error?
(e) Which gun is the most efficient? Which gun is the least efficient?

Computer exercise
Use Microsoft Excel for the following exercises.
5. The management of Astana International Airport decided to survey business travelers to develop quality ratings for the airport. The maximum possible rating is 10. Suppose a simple
random sample of 50 business travelers is selected and each traveler is asked to provide a rating for the Astana International Airport. The ratings obtained from the sample of 50 business
travelers follow:

10

10

(a)

i. Provide a point estimate of the population mean rating for Astana airport.
ii. At 95% confidence, what is the margin of error?
iii. At 99% confidence, what is the margin of error?

(b)

i. Develop a 95% confidence interval estimate of the population mean rating for Astana
airport.
ii. Develop a 99% confidence interval estimate of the population mean rating for Astana
airport.

(c)

i. Develop appropriate hypotheses for a test to determine whether the sample data
support the conclusion that the mean rating for Astana airport is equal to 6.5.
ii. At = 0.05 what is your conclusion?
iii. At = 0.01 what is your conclusion?

(d)

i. Develop appropriate hypotheses for a test to determine whether the sample data
support the conclusion that the mean rating for Astana airport is less than 6.
ii. At = 0.05 what is your conclusion?
iii. At = 0.01 what is your conclusion?