Special One Grain Commodity Market Update

26/03/10

Australia Harvest Wheat Acreage

16.0
14.0
Million hectares

12.0
10.0
8.0
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0

Last week, the U.S. attaché released the latest report on Australia wheat, noting “Area planted to wheat in CY (calendar
year) 2010/11 is forecast at 13.0 million hectares, down six percent on the record 13.8 million hectares planted in the
previous year. This would still represent the fifth largest area sown on record.
Poor prices account for most of the forecast decline in area planted. Despite this fall however, a 13.0 million hectare
wheat crop remains well above the ten‐year average of 12.5 million hectares.

Post's forecast for planted area remains well below ABARE's forecast for 13.75 million hectares planted to wheat in
2010/11. Post believes that a turnaround in the decline of sheep numbers, low wheat prices and a need for growers to
rotate land out of wheat production and into break crops (following successive years of high plantings) will place
significant downward pressure on the area planted to wheat in CY 2010. Post acknowledges that recent rainfall has
placed some upside to planting, which is due to commence in April and May, however recent rains have largely arrived
too early to provide a direct boost to planted area.”

ATA Notes: Long way to go with planting yet to begin, but possibility of ample supply in 10/11 remains intact despite
potential reduction in acreage. Above normal rainfall has been seen in key areas of southern New South Wales during
the first 3 week of March, which will help replenish soil moisture. In contrast, Western Australia has been a bit dry.
Working under the assumption of Australia remaining a strong competitor in the world export market for the near‐ and
intermediate term.

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