Arab Uprising

The protests that began in Tunisia in January 2011 quickly spread to several Arab
states. Recent vistas stand darkened by the post-Qadhafi chaos in Libya, the conflict
in Syria, the collapse of the state in Yemen, the uncertainties of Bahrain and the
unresolved political and economic issues in Egypt. A decade later, the scene was
even more ominous. Leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya had been in power for 25 to
40 years; their authoritarian rule more intolerant of dissent and their political
institutions more stagnant than ever before.
Western powers can achieve only limited success in redirecting the Arab upsurge to
their advantage.
President Sarkozy began by offering French assistance to the then Tunisian
president, Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, to put down the protests. Washington made proMubarak noises. The climax of this role change was Libya where France and Britain,
with Barack Obama leading from behind, deftly converted the UN Security Council
resolution into a mandate for a massive and sustained assault on Muammar
Qadhafi. Tunisia was a relative success but the Egyptian revolution continues to be
characterised by surprises, especially for the West.
Egypt:
The other unforeseen development in Egypt is the phenomenal success of Islamist
parties in parliamentary elections: the Muslim Brotherhood participating as the
Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) bagged 47 per cent of seats; the new rightist
Salafist Nour Party took another 25 per cent seats. The traditional liberal parties
fared badly. Egypts politics is complicated by a notable economic downturn: sharp
fall in foreign investment; shrinking of foreign exchange reserves from $36bn in
January 2011 to the current $10bn; rising unemployment; double-digit inflation; and
a steep drop in tourism revenue. Ironically, the military has run into difficulties with
the US that is unabashedly leveraging economic assistance to gain political
influence.

Syria:
In Syria, the long rule of Hafez al-Assad had been followed by his son Bashar alAssad assuming power. Unexpectedly, Bashar al-Assad failed to reform the state.
An emerging Free Syrian Army may well become a conduit of external military
interference. Bashar al-Assad has lost support of Arab states and, no less
significantly, of neighboring Turkey. He now depends heavily on Russia and China
that vetoed a Security Council resolution which might have conceivably created
space for foreign intervention. China and Russia have blocked all attempts by the
other UN Security Council members to have a resolution passed against the Syrian
regime. According to reports, Syrian war has so far led to 5,500 deaths. Mr. Assad
still commands the loyalty of a majority of the armed forces

Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria

The Kofi Annan peace plan for Syria or the six-point peace plan for
Syria, launched in February 2012, is considered the most serious international
attempt to resolve the Syrian uprising in the Middle East diplomatically. The peace
plan enforced a cease-fire to take place across Syria since 10 April 2012. Following
the Houla massacre and the consequent Free Syrian Army (FSA) ultimatum to the
Syrian government, the cease-fire practically collapsed towards the end of May
2012, as the FSA began nation-wide offensives against the government troops. On 1
June, the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad vowed to crush the anti-regime uprising,
after the FSA announced that it was resuming defensive operations. Kofi Annan
resigned on August 2, 2012.
The international community has tried to manage this conflict, not resolve it
underestimating its seriousness for regional peace and security.
Russia and Iran have armed and financed the Assad regime. Saudi Arabia and Qatar
have stated that they would finance the armed opposition. Guardian newspaper,
dated: Thursday 2 August 2012
With Syria, the international community remains deeply divided. Russia and China
fear western intervention. The US and EU powers do not want to get sucked in.
Middle Eastern regional powers are increasingly fighting a turf war in Syria, just as
they did in Lebanon during its 15-year civil war. It is these divisions that allowed the
Assad regime to manipulate Annan's mission, play for time and toy with the UN
observers. Diplomacy is not dead but it is in hibernation. Full-scale intervention is
still unlikely and no major power is itching to get involved.
Hillary Rodham Clinton