Jakarta emerges as the USs go-to friend | The Australian

13/07/2015 3:28 am

THE AUSTRALIAN

Jakarta emerges as the USs go-to friend

BRENDAN NICHOLSON THE AUSTRALIAN JULY 13, 2015 12:00AM

Indonesian President Joko Widodo, left, with military commanders. Source: AFP

An increasingly powerful Indonesia may supplant Australia in the future as the go-to ally for
the US in the Asia-Pacific region, the new report on ANZUS says.
It calls for the creation of a trilateral security process to militate against potential rifts between
Jakarta, Canberra and Washington. The report, by the Australian National Universitys Strategic and
Defence Studies Centre and the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies,
says a stronger Indonesia is likely to attract far greater interest from Washington to the extent that
Jakarta would, over time, become a competitor with Canberra for US attention. Under such a
scenario, US expectations of Australia might actually diminish, the report says.
It also cites the concern raised by influential foreign policy analyst Michael Wesley that if the
US seeks to build Indonesian military capabilities as a bulwark against Chinese power, Australia may
feel less enamoured of the US.
Conversely, history suggests that there is no guarantee that Washington will side with Canberra in
times of crisis involving Indonesia particularly an Indonesia whose geostrategic importance is
perceived to be on the rise, it says.
As an example, during the late 1960s the US refused to back Australian opposition to Indonesias
annexation of West Papua for fear of driving Jakarta straight into the arms of Beijing.
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Jakarta emerges as the USs go-to friend | The Australian

13/07/2015 3:28 am

In 1999, calls from Canberra for the provision of US boots on the ground during the crisis in East
Timor went unheeded.
The strategic shifts raised in the report would fundamentally alter the ANZUS alliance and, as it
says, may well require a new trilateral security arrangement to try to serve each nations interests.
For Washington, it would be consistent with its larger goal of broadening and deepening its strategic
partnerships in the Asia-Pacific while also providing a mechanism for more directly stabilising the
sometimes-shaky Australia-Indonesia bilateral relationship, the report says.
For Jakarta, it would afford the possibility of playing a more prominent role on the international
stage consistent with its growing economic weight, while also remaining true to its traditionally nonaligned posture given that the grouping would not constitute a formal alliance relationship. For
Canberra, the grouping would serve as an additional means of supporting its longstanding objective
of ensuring close and consistent US engagement in the Asia-Pacific, while also providing an
additional avenue for deepening security co-operation with Indonesia.
As Indonesias economic and strategic importance continues to grow over decades, such a
deepening in co-operation seems likely to become increasingly desirable for Canberra as an
alternative to a more difficult and competitive relationship with Jakarta.
The report says Australia, Indonesia and the US confront complex bilateral relationships with a rising
China, which could be discussed within this grouping.
It says Australias ability to police the maritime approaches to its northern shores will also be
increasingly important.
Chinese projection of power through the Indian Ocean along the Maritime Silk Road must
necessarily pass through the Indonesian archipelago, the report says. As a result, close co-operation with Indonesia, Singapore and others may be required to monitor the movements of regional
militaries.

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