Sorry or safe?

Preparing for a
resilient low-carbon energy
future
Dr Jeff Hardy
Network manager

29/06/09 UK Energy Research Centre

 Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles
 Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles
 What is UKERC?

The centrepiece of the Research Councils’ Energy
Programme

A world class centre for interdisciplinary whole
systems energy research (70+ researchers at 18
Universities)

A bridge between the UK energy research
community and the wider world of business, policy
and international energy research

Research Atlas (landscape, roadmaps, research register)

Energy Data Centre

National Energy Research Network (587 members)

Meeting Place (15-20 events per annum)

Technology and policy assessment
UKERC II
 Supervisory
Board May 1st…
UKERC II
Advisory Directorate
Board

Research
Committee

Research, coordination Capacity Knowledge

and integration Building Exchange

Studentships Summer
School
Communications
Administered by UKERC HQ

Energy Energy Energy and Energy TPA

demand supply Environment systems Networking Website Public
Nick Eyre Nick Jenkins Carol Turley Paul Ekins Rob Gross outreach
(ECI, Oxford) (Cardiff) (PML) (KCL) (Imperial)
Lex Young, UKERC HQ

Research Meeting NERN International SPARKS

Resources Atlas Place engagement
Jen Otoadese Jeff Hardy UKERC HQ UKERC
Jim Halliday, RAL
ECI, Oxford UKERC HQ students
Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles
Capacity building

UKERC Interdisciplinary PhD
studentships

Annual competition for 5-7
PhDs

Must be interdisciplinary
research

Alumni of 30 students

UKERC Annual Energy

Summer School

100 UK and international
students

http://www.ukerc.ac.uk/About
Us/UKERCSummerSchool2009.
aspx
Knowledge Supervisory
Board

exchange Advisory Directorate

Board

Research
Committee

Research, coordination Capacity Knowledge

and integration Building Exchange

Networking Communications

Website Public
Research Meeting NERN International SPARKS outreach
resources Place engagement
Jim Halliday, RAL ECI, Oxford Jeff Hardy Lex Waspe, UKERC HQ
UKERC HQ UKERC
UKERC HQ
students
National Energy
Research Network
National Energy Research
Network aims to:

be the first point of contact for anyone seeking UK energy
research information.

develop a searchable database of members and an accurate
depiction of the UK research landscape in terms of research
(Research Atlas), funders and policy.

where appropriate organise representation of UK research in
specific areas nationally and internationally, whether through
UKERC or others

organise events to bring members of the energy research
community together with an aim to facilitating a coordinating
(e.g., FCH JU) or community building outcome (e.g. Carbon
Crucible).
Meeting Place

Facilitates UKERC events and
networking activities

detailed planning of events,
including process design,
facilitation, logistics provision and
event follow-up…

A resource for all (UK)
researchers

Organises between 15-20
meetings per year

Expanding international
dimension
 National Energy Research Atlas

“an authoritative and comprehensive account of capabilities and

unsolved research problems across the energy domain”

Research Research Research

landscape register roadmaps
characterising an on-line identifying the
energy-related searchable sequence of
research activities database of research (and other)
and capabilities in energy-related problems to be
the UK awards and overcome before
(programme projects new technologies
level) can be commercially
viable
Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles
Research

Challenges:

Driving systemic change in the
energy sector

Managing environmental
impacts

Energy security and resilience

A focus on how we
implement our aspirations –
a focus on the mid-term
(2030)
New Research Fund

Aims

to bring a wider range of researchers and
disciplines into UKERC’s research programme

to ensure that the best science is used to deliver
the programme

to allow the programme to develop flexibly in the
light of new scientific insights or external
developments.

~40% of the research funding

Targeted annual calls for proposals

First call in late June 2009
Outline

Introducing UKERC

Community engagement

UKERC research

Energy 2050

Technology acceleration

Lifestyles
UKERC Energy 2050 Project

Aims to show how the UK can move towards a

low-carbon energy system over the next forty
years .... the project focuses on the two primary
goals of UK energy policy – achieving an 80 per
cent reduction in carbon emissions by 2050 and
ensuring that energy is delivered reliably
 The Broad Approach

No forecasts of the future

No “best” or “preferred” futures

Acknowledging uncertainty

Exploration of choices & trade-offs we face if
the primary energy policy goals – CO2
reduction and security - are to be met

Combining underpinning scientific insights
with integrating, modelling tools and
approaches
 Energy systems and whole
systems...
The UK energy system......

“the set of technologies, physical infrastructure,

institutions, policies and practices located in and
associated with the UK which enable energy services to
be delivered to UK consumers”.

also...

... the UK energy system’s interconnections with the

global energy system, the natural environment and
wider society.
 Core Scenarios
ENERGY SYSTEM ATTRIBUTES

Resilience

REF
Reference
R
(“firm and funded” “Resilient”
Low Carbon

policies as of EWP
2007)

LC LCR
“Low carbon” “Low carbon resilient”
 Workstreams

A whole systems approach....

Pathways to a low carbon energy system

Lifestyle change

The natural environment: values, impacts and trade
offs

Technology acceleration and innovation

De-centralised energy

Energy security and resilience
 High level messages

Achieving a resilient low-carbon energy system in the UK is
technically and economically feasible at an affordable cost

There are multiple pathways to a low-carbon economy. A key

trade-off is the speed of reduction in energy demand versus
the decarbonisation of energy supply

Driving down energy demand brings multiple benefits. It

insures against:

The possible failure of key technologies to deliver

Social resistance to the use of certain supply side technologies

Price shocks and import dependence

Aggressive promotion of energy efficiency and conservation

technologies is the least cost means of driving down energy
demand
 The Energy Mix

Oil virtually disappears from the energy mix by 2050 in any 80% CO2
reduction scenario

In most scenarios, electricity demand is much higher in 2050 than it is
now. There are exceptions:

lifestyle change leads to lower energy demand

demand is constrained on the grounds of energy security

Environmental concerns rule out certain electricity generation options, pushing up the
cost of supply side action

Nuclear power, renewables and carbon capture and storage (CCS) can
all play a role in the electricity generation mix

In our scenarios, renewables deployment takes place, but more slowly
than envisaged in the EU renewable energy framework

The use of electricity and perhaps hydrogen, as opposed to bio-energy,
in transport and other sectors depends on taking a long-term view of
investment
 Carbon Targets and Scenarios
Cum.
Scenario Annual Cumulative emissions 2050
Scenario targets emissions
Name (reduction) targets GTCO2 (2000- MTCO2
2050)
REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5

CFH Faint-heart 15% by 2020 - 25.67 355.4

40% by 2050
CLC Low-carbon 26% by 2020 - 22.46 236.9
(=LC-RCEP) 60% by 2050

CAM Ambition 26% by 2020

(= LC)
(Low-Carbon 80% by 2050 - 20.39 118.5
Core)
Super 32% by 2020
CSAM ambition 90% by 2050 - 17.98 59.2

CEA Early action 32% by 2020 - 19.24 118.5

80% by 2050
Budget
CCP Least cost 80% post (2010-2050) 19.24 67.1
path 2050
similar to CEA

Socially 80% post Budget

CCSP optimal least 2050 (2010-2050) 19.24 178.6
cost path similar to CEA
Reference Case CO2 Emissions
Sectoral Emissions
600

500

400 Hydrogen
Electricity
Mt-CO2

Transport
300
Services
Residential
200 Industry
Agriculture
Upstream
100

0
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Note: 1 tCO2 = 44/12 tC

Sectoral decarbonisation

In UKERC carbon ambition scenario (80% CO2
reduction):

Power sector 93%

Residential 92%

Transport 78%

Industry 26%
 Target Cases: Sectoral CO2
Sectoral CO2 emissions
600
Hydrogen

500 Electricity

Transport
400
Services
Mt-CO2

Residential
300
Industry
200 Agriculture

Upstream
100

-
35-CFH

35-CAM

50-CFH

50-CAM
2000

35-CSAM

50-CSAM
35-CLC

50-CLC
35-REF

50-REF

CCSP - Early action reducing 39% in 2020 and 70% in 2050

CCP - Later action reducing 32% in 2020 and about 90% in 2050
 Target Cases: Power Sector
2,500
Electricity generation mix Storage

Solar PV
2,000
Marine

Imports
1,500 Biowaste & others

Wind
PJ

Hydro
1,000
Oil

Nuclear
500 Gas CCS

Gas

Coal CCS
-
2000

35-CLC

50-CLC
35-B

50-B
35-CFH

50-CFH
35-CAM

50-CAM
35-CSAM

50-CSAM
Coal

Note: 1 PJ = 0.278 TWhr = 0.024 MTOE

 Cumulative Cases: Transport Fuels
Transport fuel demand
2,000

1,800

1,600 Ethanol/
methanol
1,400 Bio-diesel
1,200
Jet f uel
PJ

1,000

800
Hydrogen

600 Electricity
400
Diesel
200

-
35-CEA

50-CEA
35-CAM

50-CAM
2000

35-CCP

50-CCP
35-CCSP

50-CCSP
 Key Messages

Carbon pathway scenarios offer insights on technology,
resource and demand pathways

Without major new policy intervention, climate goals will not
be met

Power sector decarbonisation is critical

Higher target levels produce a deeper array of mitigation
options, albeit probably with more uncertainty

Early action produces greater mitigation in different sectors
(e.g. transport) and technology chains (e.g. wind, H2)

Very wide range of economic impacts

CO2 marginal costs in 2050: £20 - £360/tCO2

Welfare costs in 2050: from £B5.0 - £B52.0

Convexity in costs as targets tighten

A longer-term view of a low-carbon energy system
requires infrastructure and capital intensive solutions

Early action is unlikely to be achieved solely via a CO2 price
incentive, hence requiring additional policy measures
 Technology Acceleration

Technology acceleration has a major impact on preferred
decarbonisation pathways, esp. after 2030: much bigger
contributions from accelerated low carbon technologies

Overall, provides cheaper low-carbon power, transport and heating.
This means less long-term pressure on other ways to decarbonise
e.g. demand reduction

The overall ‘cost’of achieving 80% decarbonisation is significantly
reduced by technology acceleration, especially after 2030.

Or, a way to decarbonise more deeply, after 2030, for the same
overall cost

Average benefits over next 40 years are just under £1bn p.a.

Limited short term effect –so emphasis is on more mature
technologies and demand-side responses in shorter term, but with
much expanded RD&D investments in the meantime

Also, non-economic drivers for accelerated deployment not
factored-in here

These will increase deployment in the shorter term, and
promote learning
 Lifestyle conclusions

Lifestyle change in households and
transport can produce a combination of
energy service demand change and
efficiency improvements that:

reduce energy demand in these sectors by more
than 50% below baseline levels by 2050

reduce national energy use and carbon emissions
by ~30% below baseline

increase the share of electricity in final demand,
but reduce the need for massive electrification to
meet tough carbon targets

reduce the cost of delivering a low carbon energy
system by up to £70 billion
UK Energy Research Centre
Jeff.hardy@ukerc.ac.uk
+44 (0)20 7594 1572
www.ukerc.ac.uk
Additional slides
 Modelling Tools

System level models

MARKAL Elastic Demand (MED): a technology rich linear
optimisation model of the integrated UK energy system,
including a wide range of supply and demand side responses

E3MG: econometric model, which can be used to forecast
changes in economic structure, the energy system and
associated environmental impacts

Network Industry Models

WASP: Wien Autonomous System Planning Model –
electricity generation planning (mixed integer programming)

CGEN: Combined gas and electricity network – non-linear

Energy Demand Sectoral Models

UKDCM: Domestic buildings carbon model

UKNDCM: Non-Domestic buildings carbon model

UKTCM: Transport and carbon model
 UK MED Model

A least cost optimization model based on life-cycle costs of
competing technology pathways (to meet energy demand
services)

Technology rich bottom-up model

An integrated energy systems model

Physical, economic and policy constraints

Emphasis on sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

MED
• Endogenous energy
service demands
• Own price elasticity:
(D/D0) = (P/P0)-E
• Maximises total societal
welfare (producer plus
consumer surplus)

38
 2008 MED Calibration

Updated energy service demands

e.g., residential non-cost drivers from UKCDM model

Energy service demand elasticities from modelling literature

All existing policy measures as of 2007 are implemented

RO, RTO, CCL, EU-ETS, CERT etc

Resource costs in line with IEA & BERR 2008 revisions

10% global discount rate and technology specific 'hurdle' rates

Range of model improvements:

Expanded categorisation of UK CCS and wind resources;

New biomass and new hydrogen chains;

Improved treatment of electricity intermittency;

Buildings technology updates (micro-CHP and heat pumps);

Transport technology updates (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles);

Calibrated base year (2000) to DUKES data

“What-If” solution with perfect foresight through 2050

39
 Core Scenarios:
Common Assumptions

Underlying economic growth and demand for energy
services

2% GDP growth in the long-term

Global energy prices –

oil at $65-70/barrel

The availability of energy sources

Technology costs and learning rates

Investment decision criteria

a 10% real rate of return, higher in sectors where there are
barriers to take-up

Policy measures embedded in the Reference scenario – we
use the “firm and funded” policies in the 2007 Energy White
Paper as a baseline
 Carbon Targets and Scenarios
Cum.
Scenario Annual Cumulative emissions 2050
Scenario targets emissions
Name (reduction) targets GTCO2 (2000- MTCO2
2050)
REF Reference - - 30.03 583.5

CFH Faint-heart 15% by 2020 - 25.67 355.4

40% by 2050
CLC Low-carbon 26% by 2020 - 22.46 236.9
(=LC-RCEP) 60% by 2050

CAM Ambition 26% by 2020

(= LC)
(Low-Carbon 80% by 2050 - 20.39 118.5
Core)
Super 32% by 2020
CSAM ambition 90% by 2050 - 17.98 59.2

CEA Early action 32% by 2020 - 19.24 118.5

80% by 2050
Budget
CCP Least cost 80% post (2010-2050) 19.24 67.1
path 2050
similar to CEA

Socially 80% post Budget

CCSP optimal least 2050 (2010-2050) 19.24 178.6
cost path similar to CEA