PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

PRoACC
Research Proposal

On

Impacts on Sediment Due to Climate Change and Human Activities in the

Mekong River Basin

Bikesh Shrestha
Water Engineering and Management,
School of Engineering and Technology, Asian Institute of Technology (AIT)
Klong Luang, Pathumthani, Thailand

Supervisory Team:
Shreedhar Maskey, Ann Van Griensven, Stefan Uhlenbrook (UNESCO-IHE)
Mukand S. Babel (AIT)

January 31, 2011

1. Problem statement & research questions
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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Sediments are a key factor in many Mekong processes. Navigation, bank erosion, filling
up reservoirs, aquatic and agricultural productions are all dependent in some extent on
sediment processes. The sediment input from the Mekong to the Tonle Sap Lake is one of
the key factors of the high productivity of the lake. The changes in sediment regime that
will results from basin developments, especially the hydropower reservoirs, will affect the
sedimentation and erosion processes in the downstream river channels and the connected
floodplains, lakes, the delta and the coastal areas. The varying conditions and processes
along the Mekong set high demands for sediment monitoring methodology and modeling
to respond to the complexity of the system.
Climate variability and change has the potential to alter the water balance of river basins.
Such alterations are expected to affect the hydrological characteristics of low-latitude
flood pulse systems (Wassmann et al., 2004; Murray-Hudson et al., 2006). Hydrology
plays its part by delivering mineral and nutrient rich alluvial sediments during the flood
season that help to sustain this exceptional agricultural productivity (MRC, 2005).
Changes in surface water runoff and sediment loads can greatly affect the river ecosystem
and geomorphology. Changing sediment supply (e.g., by trapping in dams) can induce
strong changes in channel form, loss of habitats, and damage to infrastructure There will
be a change in the water discharge, sediment flux and river morphology due to both
human intervention and climate variability. This study will focus on the impacts due to
climate change and human activities against the baseline situation of the catchment so as
to formulate the strategies for adaptation. The analysis of flow and sediment budget will
help understand the physical processes operating in the catchment and plan for the
adaptation to suit the likelihood future scenarios. The research would be able to answer
four main questions:
(i)
(ii)

(iii)
(iv)

What will be the impact of climate change on sediment flux?

What will be the impacts of human activities on sediment flux?
a. What will be the impact of land use changes on sediment?
b. What will be the impact of water resources developments more
specifically hydropower and irrigation projects on sediment?
c. What will be the impact of both the land use changes and water resources
developments on sediment?
What will be the impact of both the climate change and human interventions
on sediment flux?
What adaptation strategies are needed for likely future climate change and
anthropogenic disturbance?

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

2. Objectives of the study

The general objective of the study is to develop adaptive strategies for the Mekong River
Basin from sediment transport perspective under climate change and human
interventions. The specific objectives of the study are as follows:
a. To assess the impact of climate change on the sediment yield from the basin.
b. To assess the impact of human interventions on the sediment yield from the basin.
c. To evaluate the impact of both climate change and human activities on the
sediment yield from the basin.
d. To develop adaptation strategies needed for likely future climate changes and
anthropogenic disturbances on sediment.
3. Study Area

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Nam
Ou

Source: WWF.panda.org

Figure 3.1 Proposed study area

Nam Ou River is the longest in the northern region of Lao PDR. It originates at Ban
Lantoug Gnai Village near the Lao-China border and flow to the south. It has a total

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

length of 390 km to the confluent point with the Mekong River. The total drainage area
is 25,000 km covering Phongsaly province, one third of Uodomxay province, and one
haft of Loang Prabang province. The annual discharge is 12.28 km which is 7% of the
annual discharge contributed by Lao drainage area to Mekong River (Source:
http://www.wepa-db.net/policies/state/laos/river.htm, accessed on January 27, 2011).
The basin has been proposed as the study area for the project because of following
justifications:

Water resources developments

o Nam Ou, is the major tributary system, which could be developed to export power
to China and the hydrological response is perhaps the most natural and
undisturbed in all the Lower Basin (MRC, 2005). Under 20-year hydropower
development plan in tributaries by MRC a total of 4,661 MW is expected from
Lao tributaries. Out of the above mentioned power about 21% is planned to be
generated from Nam Ou with 7 cascade dams (See Annex C 1) with total live
storage capacity of 1659.4 MCM (Hoanh et al., 2010). Also the irrigation area is
planned to increase by 44.4 % annually in this area (Hoanh et al., 2010) (see
Annex C 2).

Source of sediment
o Studies by Roberts (2001) and MRC (2003) concluded that upper Mekong
contributes 50% of the total annual sediment load of the Lower Mekong River.
Despite much soil erosion and higher sediment production in the upper Mekong,
major contributing source area of sediment in the lower Mekong are located in
northern Laos (Liu, 1998). The study area lies in northern Laos. Fuchs (2004)
ranked different catchments in Lower Mekong Basin regarding risk of soil
erosion, where the basin is among the high risk of soil erosion (See Annex C.3).

Data Availability
o In order to have better model results the complete and reliable data is must. Both
stream discharge and sediment data to be used for calibration and validation
purpose are available for the basins however, the completeness and reliability of
which needs to be assessed and confirmed with MRC.

Also it necessary to evaluate the tributaries contributions of The Mekong in sediment

perspective.

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

4. Methodology
The methodology to evaluate the impact of climate change and human interventions on
sediment of the basin and to develop adaptation measures is shown in Figure 4.1.
Pre-processing Phase

Processing & run Phase

Figure 4.1 Methodology to evaluate the impact on sediment of the basin and to develop
adaptation measures.
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model will be used for the study basin.
SWAT is a river basin or watershed scale hydrologic and water quality model developed
by Dr. Jeff Arnold for the USDA Agricultural Research Services (ARS) (Arnold et al.,
1993). It was developed to evaluate the effect of land use management on water,
sedimentation, and agricultural chemical yield in large complex watersheds which have
heterogeneity in land use, soil and management conditions over a long period of time. It
is a semi-distributed, physically based, computationally efficient, and continuous time
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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

model. It is also capable of simulating a high level of spatial detail. SWAT model was
used because it is physically based and simulates actual processes, originated from
agricultural models, degree of software support available to users and possibility of
carryout uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. Also SWAT has been validated in many
regions of the world for a variety of applications in hydrologic as well as water quality
studies (Jha et al., 2007). SWAT has also been validated to Lower Mekong River Basin by
Ross et al. (2009).
Figure 4.2 presents the framework of scenario analysis to be used for the study. The
frame work of Hoanh et al., (2010) is modified for the study purpose.

Figure 4.2 Framework of scenario analysis for impact of climate change and human
activities.
Recent studies by MRC and WUP-FIN have downscaled the precipitation and
temperature for present and future two Scenarios A2 & B2 from the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) as
provided by the SEA START Regional Center and based on the ECHAM4 GCM from the
Max Planck Institute for Meterology, Germany. These were downscaled to Mekong
region using the PRECIS system. The PRECIS climate data has a resolution of 0.2 degree
x 0.2 degree (equivalent to about 22 km x 22 km). Hoanh et al. (2010) has already
adjusted the downscaled RCM to fit simulated data with observed data for 1985-2000 and
future adjusted to the projected data for 2010-2050. The study has projected change of
+1.86 mm/yr under A2 scenario and +0.98 mm/yr under B2 scenario in annual rainfall of
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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Lower Mekong River Basin (LMB), while the annual temperature is expected to rise by
+0.020 to +0.0230C/yr. The adjusted project PRECIS climate data for 2010-2050 will be
collected from MRC for climate change scenario analysis of the study. The water resource
development scenarios will be based on BPD 20-year plan.
5. Deliverables
The study results will be disseminated to concern authorities, scientific community and
public through research reports, journal article and conference paper. The expected
deliverables are presented in Table 5.1.
Table 5.1 Deliverables
S.N

Intended Outputs

2010

2011

Research reports

Articles for peer reviewed journals

Other Academic Publications specify type: conf. pap.

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

6. Work Plan

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Literature Reviewed
Arnold, J.G., Allen, P.M., Bernhardt, G., (1993). A comprehensive surface-groundwater flow model.
Journal of Hydrology 142, 4769.
Arnold, J.G., Williams, J.R., and Maidment, D.R., (1995). Continuous-time water and sediment
routing model for large basins, Journal of Hydraulic Engineering Vol. 121(2): pp. 171-183.
Fuchs, H.J., (2004). Data availability for studies on effects of land-cover changes on water yield,
sediment and nutrients load at catchments of the Lower Mekong Basin. Working Paper 09. MRCGTZ Cooperation Programme.
Hoanh, C.T, Jirayoot, K., Lacombe, G., Srinetr., (2010). Impact of climate change and development
on Mekong flow regime. First assessment-2009. MRC Technical Paper No. 29. Mekong River
Comission, Vientiane, Lao PDR.
Jha, M.K., Gassman, P.W., Arnold, J.G., (2007). Water quality modeling for the Raccoon river
watershed using SWAT. American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engineers 50, 479493.
Keskinen, M.,(2008). Water resources development and impact assessment in the Mekong Basin:
Which way to go? Ambio 37:193-198.
Kummu M. and Varis O., (2007). Sedimentrelated impacts due to upstream reservoir trapping, the
Lower Mekong River, Geomorphology, Elsevier, vol 85, No 34, pp.275-293.
Lu, H., (1998). Comparative analysis of the hydrological characteristics inLancang-Mekong River
basin, International symposium of flooding in South Asia, Bangladesh.
Lu X. X. and Siew R.Y.,(2005). Water discharge and sediment flux changes in the Lower Mekong
River, Journal of Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.
MRC (2003). MRC Work Programme 2003.
Mekong River Commission, (2005). Overview of the Hydrology of the Mekong Basin, Mekong
River commission, Vientiane, November, 2005.
MRC (2009) Adaptation to climate change in the countries of the Lower Mekong Basin: Regional
synthesis report. MRC Technical Paper No. 24. Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR.
MRC. 2010. State of the Basin Report 2010. Mekong River Commission, Vientiane, Lao PDR.
MRC (2009). Supplement Note for 5 th RTWG meeting on scenario formulation and assessment of
hydrological changes. Internal Technical Note, Basin Development Plan Programme Phase 2.
Mekong River Commission Secretariat, Vientiane, Lao PDR.
Murray-Hudson, M., Wolski, P. & Ringrose, S, (2006). Scenarios of the impact of local and upstream
changes in climate and water use on hydro-ecology in the Okavango Delta, Botswana, Journal of
Hydrology, 331 (12), 7384.

PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Roberts, T., (2005). Downstream ecological implications of Chinas Lancang Hydropower and
Mekong Navigation Project, International Rivers Network (IRN).
Rossi, C.G., Srinivasan, R., Jirayoot, K., Duc, T.Le, Souvannabouth, P., Binh, N., Gassman, P.W.,
(2009). Hydrologic evaluation of the lower Mekong river basin with the soil and water assessment
tool model. International Agricultural Engineering Journal 18(1-2), 1-13.
Walling D. E., (2008). The Changing Sediment Load of the Mekong River, Royal Swedish Academy
of Sciences, Vol. 37, No. 3, pp.150-157.
Wang, J.J., Lu, X.X., Kummu, M., (2009). Sediment Load Estiates and Variations in The lower
Mekong River. River Research and Applications 27, 33-46.
Wassmann, R., Hien, N. X., Hoanh, C. T. & Tuong, T. P. (2004). Sea level rise affecting the
Vietnamese Mekong delta: water elevation in the flood season and implications for rice
production, Climate Change 66 (12), 89107.
World Bank/Mekong, (2004). Modelled Observations on Development Scenarios in the Lower
Mekong Basin, River Commission, Washington, DC/Vientaine, November 2004.
MRCS/WUP-FIN, (2007). Final Report Part 2: Research findings and recommendations. WUPFIN Phase 2Hydrological, Environmental and Socio-Economic Modelling Tools for the Lower
Mekong Basin Impact Assessment. Mekong River Commission and Finnish Environment Institute
Consultancy Consortium, Vientiane, Lao PDR. 126 pp.

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex A: Logical Framework

Description
Main activities, results &
deliverables
Specific objective 1:
Model to be run with
Assess the impact of climate
baseline scenario
change on the sediment yield Model to be run with future
from the basin.
climate data

Performance
Critical
Indicators
assumptions / risks
The results will The
data
and
be
compared
model
are
against baseline
expected to be
and
future
obtained
from
projection
MRC.
For future climate
The outcome will be part of
st
PRECIS
RCM
1 journal paper/ Research
with A2 & B2
report/conference paper
scenarios to be
used

Specific objective 2:
First Phase:
Evaluate the impact of Model to be run with
landuse change scenarios
human interventions on the
Second
Phase:
sediment yield from the
Model to be run with future
basin.
water resources development
plans
Third Phase:
Model to be run with future
landuse changes and water
resources development plans
The outcome will be part of
1st journal paper/ Research
report/conference paper
Specific objective 3:
First Phase:
Evaluate the impact of both Model to be run with
climate change and human
landuse change scenarios
activities on the sediment
and
climate
change
yield from the basin.
projections
Second Phase:
Model to be run with future
water resources development
plans and climate change
projections
Third Phase:
Model to be run with future
landuse changes, water
resources development plans
and
climate
change

The results will

be
compared
against baseline
and
future
changes

The
data
and
model
are
expected to be
obtained
from
MRC.
Water
resources
development plans
to be based on
BDP scenarios
Future
landuse
changes to be
based on BDP
scenarios

The results will

be
compared
against baseline
and
future
changes

The
data
and
model
are
expected to be
obtained
from
MRC.
Water
resources
development plans
to be based on
BDP scenario
Future
landuse
changes to be
based on BDP
scenarios
For future climate
PRECIS
RCM

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Description

Main activities, results &

deliverables
projections

The outcome will be part of

1st journal paper/ Research
report/conference paper

Specific objective 4:

Develop adaptation strategies

needed for likely future
climate changes and
anthropogenic disturbances
on sediment.

Model to be run with future

landuse changes, water
resources development plans
and
climate
change
projections with various
adaptation measures
Expected outcome will be
the appropriate adaptation
measures that can be
incorporated for proper
sediment management in
basin against future climate
changes,
and
human
activities.

The outcome will be part of

2nd Journal Paper/ Research
report/conference paper

Performance
Indicators

Critical
assumptions / risks
with A2 & B2
scenarios to be
used

The results with

adaptation to be
compare against
without
adaptation

Different adaptation
measures to be fed
into the model will
be based on literature
and report

Answering all the four specific objectives will lead to the fulfilment of overall objective of the
project that is to develop adaptive strategies for the Mekong River Basin on sediment under climate
change and human intervention.

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex B: Estimated Research Budget

S.N

Particulars
1 FieldVisitandDataCollection

a.MRCcambodiaformodelsetup

Unit

Rate
Quantity (Euro)

Subsistence days

20

30

Hotel days

20

25

400

Airfare(BangkokNomphenBangkok) times

Localtransport

100

VisaFee

50

b.Laosvisit

Subsistence days

15

30

Hotel days

15

20

350

Airfare(BangkokVientianeBangkok) times

Localtransport

100

VisaFee

50

2 Databuying

3 CommunicationsandStationaries

4 ConferenceandWorkshops*

5 ComputerandAccessories

6 Overhead

Total

TotalAmount
(Euro)

2,900.00

1,650.00

600.00

500.00

400.00

100.00

50.00

1,250.00

450.00

300.00

350.00

100.00

50.00

2,000.00

300.00

1,500.00

1,500.00

1,000.00

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

9,200.00

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex C 1: Location of hydropower dams (Source: MRC, 2009)

Nam
Ou

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex C 2a: Irrigation area (x 1000 ha) in Baseline and LMB-20 year plan (location of BDP
sub areas is shown in Annex C2b) (Source: Hoanh et al., 2010)

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex C 2b Location of BDP sub- areas (Source: Hoanh et al., 2010)

Nam
Ou

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PROACC proposal by Bikesh Shrestha

Annex C 3 Ranking of catchment regarding risk of soil erosion (source: Fuchs, 2004)

Nam
Ou

Note: 1=Nam Ou basin; 2= Nam Ngum basin

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