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Planning
Meysam Qadrdan
Energy Infrastructure Symposium
Imperial College London
17th December 2014
Motivation
Gas-fired plants link power systems to gas networks.
Availability and price of gas can affect expansion and
operation of the power system.
CGEN+
CGEN+ is a Combined Gas and Electricity Network
expansion planning model
CGEN+ uses cost minimisation approach to:
Determine where, when, what type
and how much capacity need to be
built, subject to: meeting energy
demand, CO2 target (if set) and any
other constraints.
Investigate impacts of a particular
strategy on both networks (e.g.
impact of GB shale gas exploitation
on the gas import and generation
mix).
3
CGEN+ (Cont.)
Inputs
Regional and
temporal demand
data
Capacity/location/
type of the existing
infrastructure
Capital and
operating costs of
infrastructure
Fuel and carbon
prices, discount rate
Characteristics of
infrastructure:
efficiency, lifetime,
emission intensity,
CGEN+ model
(Non Linear Mixed Integer Programming)
Objective function
min =
1
1+
+
+
Constraints
Emission and renewable targets (if set)
Meeting gas and electricity demand (otherwise a
high shedding cost is incurred)
Operation within technical capacity of infrastructure
Maintaining a minimum level of capacity margins
Resource availability: indigenous gas reserve, gas
and electricity imports, wind energy (spatial and
seasonal capacity factor)
Outputs
Optimal
capacity/location/
type of the new
infrastructure
Optimal cost
(investment and
operation) of the
system
CO2 emission: total
(tonne) and
intensity (g/kWh)
off-peak
(11 hours)
Intermediate
(11 hours)
P
e
a
k
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Case studies
CGEN+ was employed to:
Evaluate performance of a number of low carbon
strategies (cost, emission and import dependency)
Investigate impacts of transition to a low carbon power
system on the GB gas network
Analyse interactions between energy and water sector:
Regional water consumption for cooling thermal power
plant was estimated.
Transport
Energy
Water
Central fuel
price,
population and
GDP growth
projected by
DECC
Technological changes in
demand sector
Carbon
Price floor
Minimal efficiency
improvements and no DSR
No technology is
imposed
Yes
High nuclear
Yes
High CCS
Yes
High offshore
generation
Yes
Generation
technology
Strategies
MPI
Electrification of Heat & Transport
GDP/population/ fuel
price scenarios
EHT-Nuclear
EHT-CCS
EHT-Offshore
In EHT-Nuclear, capacity of nuclear plants was assumed to reach 90 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway level 3).
In EHT-CCS, capacity of CCS-equipped coal and gas was assumed to reach 47 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway
level 3).
In EHT-Offshore, capacity of offshore wind was assumed to reach 100 GW by 2050 and capacity of tidal and wave
generation was assumed to reach 42 GW by 2050 (DECC 2050 pathway level 3).
CCGTs play significant role in 2050 either to supply base load or act as
peaking/backup generation technology.
Substantially large total generation capacity in EHT Offshore (~2 x peak)
due to variable wind power output.
Capacity factor for CCGT plants drops to around 10% by 2050 in strategies
which has large capacity of variable and inflexible generation technologies.
In EHT strategies, CCGT plants will operate mostly as back up for variable and
inflexible generations.
Capacity payment is needed to encourage the investment
Import dependency
Strategy
2010 2050
MPI
94%
74%
EHT-Nuclear
84%
9%
91%
56%
85%
25%
EHT-CCS
EHT-Offshore
55%
15
16
Summary
CGEN+ provides insights into complex
interdependent gas and electricity networks.
The model has continually evolved to also
capture interactions with other sectors
including water, transport and waste.
Meysam Qadrdan
m.qadrdan@imperial.ac.uk
qadrdanm@cardiff.ac.uk
Acknowledgement to:
Prof. Nick Jenkins
Prof. Goran Strbac
Dr Modassar Chaudry
Cardiff University
Imperial College London
Cardiff University