CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, New Hampshire: Nov. 15-19

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker
New Hampshire
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
1336 Registered Voters

November 15-19, 2015
5.2%
1. Would you say things in this country today are...

Generally headed in the right direction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Off on the wrong track . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 66%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9%
2. How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Definitely will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .86%
Probably will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Maybe will vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2%
Probably will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Definitely will not vote . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
3. In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Democratic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%
Neither . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Dont know . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23%

New Hampshire
4. Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican
Presidential primary in 2016?
Asked of Republican primary voters
Jeb Bush . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Ben Carson . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Chris Christie . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Ted Cruz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Carly Fiorina . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Jim Gilmore . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Lindsey Graham . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Mike Huckabee . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Bobby Jindal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
John Kasich . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8%
George Pataki . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Rand Paul . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Marco Rubio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Rick Santorum . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Donald Trump . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32%
No preference . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .0%
5.
Asked of Democratic primary voters
Held for future release

6. How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Enthusiastic about [Candidate Name] . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50%

Supporting [Candidate Name] but with some reservations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
Considering [Candidate Name] mainly because you dislike the other choices so
far . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12%

New Hampshire
7. Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Asked of Trump supporters
His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18%

He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 0%
8. Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Asked of Carson supporters
His outlook for America . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%

He says things others are afraid to say . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
His personal success story . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Hes not a typical politician . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56%
His faith and religious beliefs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11%
9. Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you
feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Ben Carson
Donald Trump
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Ready
27%
49%
48%
44%
42%
Not ready
54%
40%
32%
39%
44%
Not sure
19%
11%
20%
16%
14%
10.

New Hampshire
11. If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could
actually do the things theyre talking about?
Very confident he/she could do them . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48%

Somewhat confident, and would give him/her a chance to try . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Not confident yet, but electing him/her would at least send a message about the
direction we need . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
12. How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to
support for President in 2016?
A lot . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%
Somewhat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Not much . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Not at all . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33%
13. Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Favor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35%

New Hampshire
14. Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants?
Illegal immigrants...
Fill jobs Americans

wont do
Drive down
Americans wages
Are generally
hard-working people
Have broken the law
and should be
penalized or
deported
Harm national
security
Agree
Disagree
47%
53%
77%
23%
52%
48%
86%
14%
83%
17%
15.

16.

17. On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on
which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Immigration
Matters of faith and
religion
Handling ISIS
Same sex marriage
Must agree with you

63%
Okay with some

differences
37%
17%
66%
25%
83%
34%
75%

New Hampshire
18.

19.

20. Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Asked of Democratic and Republican primary voters
Donald Trump
Ben Carson
Ted Cruz
Marco Rubio
Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton
Bernie Sanders
Invite
39%
40%
32%
41%
38%
40%
55%
Not Invite
61%
60%
68%
59%
62%
60%
45%
21. How do you feel about the Tea Party movement?

Support . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16%
Oppose . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
Neutral . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38%
22. Would you describe yourself as a born-again or evangelical Christian?*

Yes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
No . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 72%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4%
Questions marked with an asterisk are only asked for respondents who had not answered in previous waves.
Earlier responses were used where available.

New Hampshire
23. Thinking about politics these days, how would you describe your own political viewpoint?*
Very liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10%
Liberal . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Moderate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 40%
Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Very Conservative . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
24. Generally speaking, do you think of yourself as a ...?

Strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%
Not very strong Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
Lean Democrat . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19%
Independent . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21%
Lean Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .15%
Not very strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6%
Strong Republican . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
Not sure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5%
25. Are you male or female?

Male . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45%
Female . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55%
26. In what year were you born? [Age recoded from birth year]
18-29 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 13%
30-44 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
45-64 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46%
65+ . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16%

New Hampshire
27. What racial or ethnic group best describes you?
White . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91%
Black . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Hispanic . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1%
Other . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7%
28. What is the highest level of education you have completed?

HS or less . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25%
Some college . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34%
College grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24%
Post grad . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17%

New Hampshire
1. Direction of country
Would you say things in this country today are...
Gender
Generally headed in the right direction
Off on the wrong track
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
25%
66%
9%
30%
60%
10%
21%
71%
8%
25%
66%
10%
27%
64%
9%
22%
69%
9%
28%
62%
10%
26%
65%
9%
9%
78%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(595)
(738)
(177)
(329)
(617)
(211)
(1,213)
100%
(1,334)
(15)
(15)
(90)

New Hampshire
2. Likelihood of Voting
How likely is it that you will vote in the 2016 Presidential primary in New Hampshire?
Gender
Definitely will vote
Probably will vote
Maybe will vote
Probably will not vote
Definitely will not vote
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
86%
7%
2%
1%
3%
1%
90%
7%
2%
0%
1%
0%
82%
8%
3%
1%
4%
2%
64%
12%
5%
0%
17%
2%
89%
9%
1%
0%
0%
1%
89%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
91%
7%
2%
0%
0%
0%
86%
8%
3%
1%
2%
1%
95%
2%
0%
0%
1%
2%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(597)
(738)
(178)
(329)
(618)
(210)
(1,214)
100%
(1,335)
(15)
(15)
(90)

New Hampshire
3. 2016 Primary Turnout

In 2016, are you more likely to vote in the Democratic or Republican Presidential primary?
Gender
Democratic
Republican
Neither
Dont know
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
32%
35%
10%
23%
32%
42%
8%
19%
33%
29%
12%
26%
35%
31%
31%
3%
39%
28%
10%
23%
32%
35%
5%
28%
22%
48%
7%
23%
33%
35%
10%
22%
28%
37%
9%
27%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(597)
(739)
(178)
(329)
(618)
(211)
(1,215)
100%
(1,336)
(15)
(15)
(90)

New Hampshire
4. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%
1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%
3%
7%
5%
12%
7%
0%
1%
0%
1%
9%
1%
10%
11%
1%
33%
0%
10%
13%
5%
8%
4%
0%
1%
3%
0%
6%
0%
2%
15%
0%
32%
0%
15%
0%
6%
8%
5%
0%
5%
14%
0%
4%
0%
16%
14%
0%
15%
0%
3%
12%
6%
14%
3%
0%
2%
0%
0%
7%
0%
13%
8%
0%
32%
0%
6%
9%
4%
10%
6%
0%
1%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
14%
0%
39%
0%
5%
15%
6%
7%
9%
0%
0%
0%
2%
9%
0%
0%
15%
3%
27%
0%
7%
10%
6%
9%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1%
8%
0%
5%
14%
1%
31%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(329)
(295)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(136)
(566)
(4)
(2)
(50)
5.


New Hampshire
6. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Gender
Enthusiastic
Supporting with reservations
Considering as best alternative
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
50%
38%
12%
49%
38%
13%
51%
39%
10%
31%
52%
18%
51%
44%
5%
51%
36%
13%
57%
31%
12%
51%
39%
11%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(619)
(324)
(294)
(65)
(124)
(293)
(135)
(565)
(4)
(2)
(46)

New Hampshire
7. Favorite Trump Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Gender
His outlook for America
He says things others are afraid to say
His personal success story
Hes not a typical politician
His faith and religious beliefs
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
18%
56%
0%
26%
0%
16%
56%
0%
27%
0%
19%
56%
1%
24%
0%
16%
58%
0%
26%
0%
17%
56%
0%
27%
0%
100%
100%
100%
(94)
100%
(108)
100%
(202)
(10)
(42)
(115)
(36)
(176)
(3)
(2)
(20)

New Hampshire
8. Favorite Carson Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
17%
10%
5%
56%
11%
18%
11%
5%
54%
12%
100%
100%
(60)
(22)
(38)
(0)
(15)
(25)
(20)
(56)
(0)
(0)
(4)

New Hampshire
9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson

Regardless of whether youd personally vote for them, which of these candidates do you feel is ready to be Commander in Chief, if elected?
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
27%
54%
19%
21%
63%
16%
33%
45%
22%
14%
59%
27%
29%
53%
18%
29%
54%
17%
25%
55%
20%
28%
53%
20%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(603)
(318)
(285)
(65)
(120)
(289)
(129)
(546)
(4)
(2)
(50)

New Hampshire
10. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
49%
40%
11%
48%
42%
10%
50%
37%
13%
45%
44%
10%
54%
36%
11%
54%
37%
9%
35%
47%
17%
48%
40%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(609)
(324)
(285)
(65)
(126)
(288)
(129)
(552)
(4)
(2)
(50)

New Hampshire
11. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
48%
32%
20%
46%
37%
18%
50%
26%
24%
36%
19%
45%
51%
33%
16%
48%
35%
17%
51%
28%
21%
48%
30%
22%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(324)
(287)
(65)
(126)
(291)
(128)
(553)
(4)
(2)
(50)
10

New Hampshire
12. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
44%
39%
16%
43%
45%
12%
46%
33%
21%
50%
37%
13%
37%
49%
14%
44%
40%
16%
48%
31%
21%
45%
38%
17%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(608)
(318)
(291)
(65)
(123)
(287)
(132)
(552)
(4)
(2)
(50)
11

New Hampshire
13. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush

Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
42%
44%
14%
36%
51%
13%
50%
36%
15%
54%
29%
17%
32%
54%
14%
47%
43%
10%
36%
44%
20%
44%
42%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(612)
(325)
(287)
(65)
(127)
(290)
(129)
(555)
(4)
(2)
(50)
14.

15.

16.

12

New Hampshire
17. Confidence in Candidate Choice

If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
48%
45%
6%
48%
43%
9%
49%
47%
4%
56%
44%
0%
51%
49%
0%
49%
44%
7%
42%
44%
13%
50%
45%
5%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(620)
(325)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(293)
(133)
(562)
(4)
(2)
(50)
13

New Hampshire
18. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote

How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
17%
24%
25%
33%
15%
22%
27%
36%
19%
26%
23%
31%
8%
50%
23%
19%
15%
13%
29%
42%
15%
25%
25%
35%
28%
21%
23%
28%
18%
24%
27%
31%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(329)
(295)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(136)
(567)
(4)
(2)
(50)
14

New Hampshire
19. Troops to Fight ISIS

Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Gender
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
65%
35%
61%
39%
68%
32%
55%
45%
58%
42%
69%
31%
66%
34%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(611)
(327)
(285)
(65)
(124)
(291)
(130)
(555)
(4)
(2)
(49)
15

New Hampshire
20. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Do you agree or disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants? Illegal immigrants...
Gender
Fill jobs Americans wont do
Drive down Americans wages
Are generally hard-working people
Should be penalized/deported
Harm national security
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
47%
77%
52%
86%
83%
46%
76%
56%
83%
80%
46%
73%
44%
85%
82%
44%
85%
48%
86%
98%
31%
80%
57%
89%
83%
48%
75%
43%
86%
82%
57%
67%
59%
72%
69%
49%
74%
51%
83%
80%
(623)
(328)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(135)
(565)
(4)
(2)
(50)
16

New Hampshire
21. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Gender
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
53%
23%
48%
14%
17%
53%
23%
42%
17%
18%
50%
22%
50%
11%
16%
56%
15%
52%
14%
2%
69%
20%
41%
9%
17%
51%
25%
54%
12%
16%
35%
24%
31%
24%
25%
49%
23%
45%
14%
18%
(623)
(328)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(135)
(565)
(4)
(2)
(50)
22.

23.

17

New Hampshire
24. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

On which of these topics MUST a candidate agree with you to earn your vote, and on which is it okay if there are some differences between you?
Gender
Must agree with you
Okay with some differences
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
63%
37%
60%
40%
66%
34%
61%
39%
59%
41%
62%
38%
68%
32%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(328)
(289)
(65)
(128)
(293)
(131)
(559)
(4)
(2)
(50)
18

New Hampshire
25. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
17%
83%
16%
84%
18%
82%
9%
91%
19%
81%
16%
84%
21%
79%
16%
84%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(324)
(286)
(65)
(128)
(284)
(133)
(555)
(2)
(2)
(49)
19

New Hampshire
26. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
66%
34%
62%
38%
71%
29%
77%
23%
58%
42%
64%
36%
73%
27%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(618)
(328)
(291)
(65)
(124)
(293)
(136)
(562)
(4)
(2)
(50)
20

New Hampshire
27. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage

Gender
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
25%
75%
28%
72%
21%
79%
14%
86%
26%
74%
22%
78%
35%
65%
23%
77%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(325)
(292)
(65)
(128)
(292)
(131)
(560)
(3)
(2)
(49)
21

New Hampshire
28.

29.

30.

31.

32.

33.

34.

35.

22

New Hampshire
36. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump

Which of these candidates would you invite to Thanksgiving dinner, if you could?
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
39%
61%
43%
57%
35%
65%
26%
74%
36%
64%
41%
59%
45%
55%
37%
63%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(528)
(615)
(137)
(273)
(533)
(199)
(1,065)
100%
(1,142)
(4)
(6)
(65)
23

New Hampshire
37. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
60%
42%
58%
38%
62%
21%
79%
41%
59%
42%
58%
45%
55%
38%
62%
56%
44%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(523)
(615)
(135)
(277)
(530)
(195)
(1,061)
100%
(1,138)
(3)
(6)
(65)
24

New Hampshire
38. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
32%
68%
34%
66%
30%
70%
23%
77%
28%
72%
32%
68%
45%
55%
31%
69%
43%
57%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(524)
(616)
(137)
(276)
(533)
(194)
(1,062)
100%
(1,140)
(4)
(6)
(65)
25

New Hampshire
39. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
41%
59%
44%
56%
38%
62%
29%
71%
33%
67%
41%
59%
58%
42%
40%
60%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(524)
(609)
(139)
(277)
(522)
(195)
(1,056)
100%
(1,134)
(3)
(6)
(66)
26

New Hampshire
40. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
38%
62%
38%
62%
38%
62%
32%
68%
32%
68%
39%
61%
48%
52%
39%
61%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(521)
(614)
(134)
(271)
(524)
(206)
(1,060)
100%
(1,135)
(4)
(3)
(66)
27

New Hampshire
41. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
40%
60%
36%
64%
44%
56%
27%
73%
41%
59%
44%
56%
38%
62%
41%
59%
24%
76%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(526)
(600)
(135)
(275)
(519)
(197)
(1,047)
100%
(1,126)
(4)
(6)
(67)
28

New Hampshire
42. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders

Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Age group
Race/Ethnicity
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
White
Black
Hispanic
Other
55%
45%
59%
41%
51%
49%
60%
40%
65%
35%
53%
47%
43%
57%
56%
44%
51%
49%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(533)
(607)
(138)
(277)
(525)
(199)
(1,060)
100%
(1,140)
(4)
(6)
(68)
29

New Hampshire Likely Republican Voters
Sample
Conducted
Margin of Error
624 Likely Republican Primary Voters

November 15-19, 2015
6.3%
1. First Choice Republican Candidate

Which candidate are you most likely to vote for in the New Hampshire Republican Presidential primary in 2016?
Ideology
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%
1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%
2%
7%
0%
15%
6%
0%
0%
0%
0%
4%
0%
16%
15%
0%
34%
0%
7%
15%
4%
13%
8%
0%
2%
4%
0%
3%
0%
3%
14%
0%
28%
0%
7%
7%
10%
6%
5%
0%
1%
0%
0%
17%
0%
6%
14%
0%
24%
0%
2%
10%
3%
16%
5%
0%
0%
4%
0%
3%
0%
12%
9%
0%
35%
0%
9%
9%
7%
6%
7%
0%
2%
0%
1%
11%
0%
2%
16%
1%
29%
0%
9%
18%
2%
12%
6%
0%
2%
0%
0%
2%
0%
7%
18%
0%
24%
0%
5%
7%
6%
10%
6%
0%
1%
2%
1%
10%
0%
6%
12%
1%
32%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(111)
(242)
(198)
(245)
(359)
(145)
(442)
Gender
Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
6%
10%
5%
10%
6%
0%
3%
7%
5%
12%
7%
0%
10%
13%
5%
8%
4%
0%
15%
0%
6%
8%
5%
0%
3%
12%
6%
14%
3%
0%
6%
9%
4%
10%
6%
0%
5%
15%
6%
7%
9%
0%
7%
8%
3%
10%
5%
0%
5%
12%
7%
10%
7%
0%
continued on the next page . . .

continued from previous page

Age group
Gender
Lindsey Graham
Mike Huckabee
Bobby Jindal
John Kasich
George Pataki
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
No preference
Totals
(Weighted N)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
1%
1%
0%
8%
0%
6%
13%
1%
32%
0%
1%
0%
1%
9%
1%
10%
11%
1%
33%
0%
1%
3%
0%
6%
0%
2%
15%
0%
32%
0%
5%
14%
0%
4%
0%
16%
14%
0%
15%
0%
2%
0%
0%
7%
0%
13%
8%
0%
32%
0%
1%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
14%
0%
39%
0%
0%
0%
2%
9%
0%
0%
15%
3%
27%
0%
2%
0%
0%
8%
1%
4%
17%
0%
36%
0%
1%
3%
1%
7%
0%
8%
10%
1%
27%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(329)
(295)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(136)
(301)
(293)

2. Enthusiasm for First Choice

How would you describe your feelings right now about [First Choice Candidate Name] ... ?
Ideology
Enthusiastic
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
50%
38%
12%
73%
27%
1%
51%
44%
6%
42%
39%
19%
57%
37%
6%
46%
38%
16%
57%
37%
6%
48%
38%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(619)
(111)
(238)
(198)
(242)
(358)
(141)
(441)
Gender
Enthusiastic
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
50%
38%
12%
49%
38%
13%
51%
39%
10%
31%
52%
18%
51%
44%
5%
51%
36%
13%
57%
31%
12%
55%
37%
7%
47%
40%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(619)
(324)
(294)
(65)
(124)
(293)
(135)
(300)
(288)

3. Favorite Trump Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Donald Trump right now?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
18%
56%
0%
26%
0%
32%
47%
0%
21%
1%
18%
52%
1%
29%
0%
19%
65%
0%
16%
0%
18%
60%
0%
21%
0%
100%
100%
100%
(103)
100%
(86)
100%
(202)
(38)
(67)
(47)
Gender
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
(35)
Age group
(142)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
18%
56%
0%
26%
0%
16%
56%
0%
27%
0%
19%
56%
1%
24%
0%
16%
58%
0%
26%
0%
19%
50%
0%
31%
0%
19%
59%
0%
22%
0%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(94)
100%
(108)
100%
(202)
(107)
(79)
(10)
(42)
(115)
(36)

4. Favorite Carson Characteristic

Which of these is your favorite thing about Ben Carson right now?
Ideology
Totals
(Weighted N)
Tea Party
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
17%
10%
5%
56%
11%
100%
(60)
(8)
(36)
Totals
(Weighted N)
(14)
Gender
Evangelical
Total
(25)
(33)
(26)
Age group
(32)
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
17%
10%
5%
56%
11%
100%
(60)
(22)
(38)
(0)
(15)
(25)
(20)
(24)
(36)

5. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ben Carson

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
27%
54%
19%
36%
47%
16%
32%
41%
26%
14%
69%
17%
30%
45%
25%
22%
62%
16%
47%
26%
27%
18%
66%
16%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(603)
(109)
(235)
(186)
(232)
(351)
(145)
(423)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
27%
54%
19%
21%
63%
16%
33%
45%
22%
14%
59%
27%
29%
53%
18%
29%
54%
17%
25%
55%
20%
30%
54%
16%
24%
53%
23%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(603)
(318)
(285)
(65)
(120)
(289)
(129)
(292)
(281)

6. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Donald Trump

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
49%
40%
11%
58%
33%
9%
45%
39%
16%
39%
51%
10%
58%
28%
14%
42%
48%
10%
40%
42%
18%
50%
41%
10%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(609)
(109)
(236)
(192)
(239)
(351)
(144)
(430)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
49%
40%
11%
48%
42%
10%
50%
37%
13%
45%
44%
10%
54%
36%
11%
54%
37%
9%
35%
47%
17%
55%
36%
9%
42%
44%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(609)
(324)
(285)
(65)
(126)
(288)
(129)
(294)
(287)

7. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Ted Cruz

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
48%
32%
20%
76%
9%
15%
53%
25%
22%
34%
46%
19%
67%
16%
17%
33%
44%
23%
68%
9%
23%
40%
41%
19%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(111)
(233)
(194)
(241)
(350)
(145)
(430)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
48%
32%
20%
46%
37%
18%
50%
26%
24%
36%
19%
45%
51%
33%
16%
48%
35%
17%
51%
28%
21%
50%
30%
20%
48%
31%
21%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(324)
(287)
(65)
(126)
(291)
(128)
(293)
(287)

8. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Marco Rubio

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
44%
39%
16%
56%
34%
11%
51%
32%
18%
38%
44%
18%
49%
40%
11%
40%
40%
20%
59%
21%
19%
38%
48%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(608)
(109)
(235)
(192)
(235)
(354)
(144)
(428)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
44%
39%
16%
43%
45%
12%
46%
33%
21%
50%
37%
13%
37%
49%
14%
44%
40%
16%
48%
31%
21%
49%
33%
18%
42%
45%
14%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(608)
(318)
(291)
(65)
(123)
(287)
(132)
(294)
(284)

9. Republicans Ready to Be Commander in Chief Jeb Bush

Ideology
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
42%
44%
14%
33%
56%
11%
46%
41%
13%
46%
38%
16%
35%
51%
14%
46%
40%
14%
40%
38%
21%
42%
46%
12%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(612)
(107)
(237)
(195)
(238)
(354)
(142)
(434)
Gender
Ready
Not ready
Not sure
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
42%
44%
14%
36%
51%
13%
50%
36%
15%
54%
29%
17%
32%
54%
14%
47%
43%
10%
36%
44%
20%
46%
38%
16%
39%
48%
13%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(612)
(325)
(287)
(65)
(127)
(290)
(129)
(296)
(286)
10

10. Confidence in Candidate Choice

If [First Choice Candidate Name] wins the Presidency, how confident are you he/she could actually do the things theyre talking about?
Ideology
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
48%
45%
6%
74%
23%
2%
44%
54%
3%
42%
51%
7%
59%
38%
3%
40%
51%
9%
53%
42%
5%
46%
47%
7%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(620)
(111)
(241)
(198)
(245)
(355)
(145)
(439)
Gender
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not confident yet
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
48%
45%
6%
48%
43%
9%
49%
47%
4%
56%
44%
0%
51%
49%
0%
49%
44%
7%
42%
44%
13%
57%
41%
2%
42%
50%
8%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(620)
(325)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(293)
(133)
(300)
(289)
11

11. Paris Attacks Effect on Vote

How much have the terrorism attacks in Paris affected your decision about whom to support for President in 2016?
Ideology
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
17%
24%
25%
33%
22%
17%
21%
41%
24%
26%
22%
28%
8%
25%
31%
36%
15%
27%
25%
33%
19%
22%
23%
35%
28%
27%
18%
28%
12%
24%
26%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(111)
(242)
(198)
(246)
(359)
(145)
(443)
Gender
A lot
Somewhat
Not much
Not at all
Tea Party
Total
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
17%
24%
25%
33%
15%
22%
27%
36%
19%
26%
23%
31%
8%
50%
23%
19%
15%
13%
29%
42%
15%
25%
25%
35%
28%
21%
23%
28%
21%
24%
25%
31%
15%
23%
25%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(624)
(329)
(295)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(136)
(301)
(293)
12

12. Troops to Fight ISIS

Do you favor or oppose sending US ground troops to the Middle East to fight ISIS?
Ideology
Favor
Oppose
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
65%
35%
58%
42%
75%
25%
55%
45%
68%
32%
61%
39%
71%
29%
61%
39%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(611)
(108)
(233)
(197)
(242)
(350)
(142)
(435)
Gender
Favor
Oppose
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
65%
35%
61%
39%
68%
32%
55%
45%
58%
42%
69%
31%
66%
34%
69%
31%
58%
42%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(611)
(327)
(285)
(65)
(124)
(291)
(130)
(293)
(288)
13

13. Agree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Ideology
(Weighted N)
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
47%
77%
52%
86%
83%
30%
85%
38%
93%
96%
49%
75%
48%
85%
83%
48%
67%
65%
75%
66%
30%
91%
40%
92%
87%
57%
64%
58%
78%
76%
38%
79%
54%
88%
88%
50%
73%
51%
82%
79%
(623)
(110)
(242)
(198)
(245)
(358)
(145)
(442)
Gender
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
47%
77%
52%
86%
83%
46%
76%
56%
83%
80%
46%
73%
44%
85%
82%
44%
85%
48%
86%
98%
31%
80%
57%
89%
83%
48%
75%
43%
86%
82%
57%
67%
59%
72%
69%
46%
76%
42%
86%
88%
47%
74%
58%
81%
74%
(623)
(328)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(135)
(300)
(293)
14

14. Disagree with each of the following statements about Illegal immigrants Illegal immigrants...
Ideology
(Weighted N)
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
53%
23%
48%
14%
17%
69%
15%
59%
6%
3%
47%
20%
46%
11%
14%
50%
31%
32%
24%
31%
66%
6%
55%
6%
10%
41%
34%
39%
20%
22%
61%
20%
45%
11%
11%
47%
24%
45%
16%
19%
(623)
(110)
(242)
(198)
(245)
(358)
(145)
(442)
Gender
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
53%
23%
48%
14%
17%
53%
23%
42%
17%
18%
50%
22%
50%
11%
16%
56%
15%
52%
14%
2%
69%
20%
41%
9%
17%
51%
25%
54%
12%
16%
35%
24%
31%
24%
25%
52%
22%
53%
11%
10%
51%
23%
40%
18%
23%
(623)
(328)
(294)
(65)
(128)
(294)
(135)
(300)
(293)
15

15. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Immigration

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
63%
37%
72%
28%
64%
36%
52%
48%
72%
28%
56%
44%
57%
43%
63%
37%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(108)
(238)
(197)
(245)
(353)
(143)
(438)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
63%
37%
60%
40%
66%
34%
61%
39%
59%
41%
62%
38%
68%
32%
62%
38%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(328)
(289)
(65)
(128)
(293)
(131)
(300)
(287)
16

16. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Matters of faith and religion

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
17%
83%
28%
72%
21%
79%
5%
95%
24%
76%
12%
88%
35%
65%
11%
89%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(109)
(240)
(195)
(243)
(348)
(142)
(432)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
17%
83%
16%
84%
18%
82%
9%
91%
19%
81%
16%
84%
21%
79%
20%
80%
11%
89%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(610)
(324)
(286)
(65)
(128)
(284)
(133)
(299)
(282)
17

17. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Handling ISIS

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
66%
34%
73%
27%
69%
31%
55%
45%
70%
30%
62%
38%
64%
36%
65%
35%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(618)
(110)
(239)
(197)
(241)
(358)
(141)
(442)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
66%
34%
62%
38%
71%
29%
77%
23%
58%
42%
64%
36%
73%
27%
66%
34%
64%
36%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(618)
(328)
(291)
(65)
(124)
(293)
(136)
(300)
(289)
18

18. Republican Candidate Policy Agreement Same sex marriage

Ideology
Must agree with you
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
25%
75%
35%
65%
24%
76%
20%
80%
29%
71%
23%
77%
41%
59%
20%
80%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(108)
(241)
(195)
(242)
(355)
(142)
(439)
Gender
Must agree with you
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
25%
75%
28%
72%
21%
79%
14%
86%
26%
74%
22%
78%
35%
65%
20%
80%
28%
72%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(617)
(325)
(292)
(65)
(128)
(292)
(131)
(298)
(289)
19

19. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Donald Trump

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
59%
41%
64%
36%
62%
38%
46%
54%
70%
30%
51%
49%
55%
45%
59%
41%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(609)
(108)
(235)
(195)
(242)
(348)
(139)
(434)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
59%
41%
59%
41%
59%
41%
41%
59%
61%
39%
63%
37%
60%
40%
64%
36%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(609)
(324)
(285)
(65)
(124)
(288)
(131)
(290)
(289)
20

20. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ben Carson

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
62%
38%
77%
23%
68%
32%
56%
44%
75%
25%
52%
48%
80%
20%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(606)
(105)
(235)
(194)
(240)
(346)
(140)
(430)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
62%
38%
63%
37%
61%
39%
40%
60%
70%
30%
63%
37%
62%
38%
64%
36%
62%
38%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(606)
(318)
(287)
(64)
(128)
(284)
(129)
(288)
(287)
21

21. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Ted Cruz

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
54%
46%
81%
19%
61%
39%
37%
63%
70%
30%
42%
58%
74%
26%
46%
54%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(607)
(106)
(235)
(194)
(238)
(349)
(141)
(431)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
54%
46%
51%
49%
57%
43%
37%
63%
51%
49%
54%
46%
66%
34%
57%
43%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(607)
(320)
(287)
(65)
(126)
(287)
(127)
(293)
(284)
22

22. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Marco Rubio

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
61%
39%
68%
32%
71%
29%
51%
49%
60%
40%
60%
40%
75%
25%
54%
46%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(598)
(101)
(230)
(195)
(233)
(347)
(139)
(424)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
61%
39%
59%
41%
63%
37%
41%
59%
53%
47%
61%
39%
79%
21%
70%
30%
55%
45%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(598)
(318)
(281)
(65)
(128)
(277)
(128)
(286)
(283)
23

23. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Jeb Bush

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
51%
49%
43%
57%
59%
41%
46%
54%
48%
52%
51%
49%
53%
47%
49%
51%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(595)
(100)
(232)
(192)
(230)
(346)
(131)
(428)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
51%
49%
47%
53%
55%
45%
57%
43%
37%
63%
52%
48%
57%
43%
57%
43%
47%
53%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(595)
(318)
(277)
(65)
(122)
(279)
(129)
(285)
(280)
24

24. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Hillary Clinton

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
12%
88%
1%
99%
6%
94%
18%
82%
2%
98%
20%
80%
4%
96%
15%
85%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(586)
(97)
(226)
(193)
(226)
(341)
(132)
(420)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
12%
88%
14%
86%
11%
89%
0%
100%
11%
89%
14%
86%
16%
84%
6%
94%
13%
87%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(586)
(314)
(272)
(64)
(124)
(271)
(127)
(273)
(284)
25

25. Invite to Thanksgiving Dinner Bernie Sanders

Ideology
Invite
Not Invite
Totals
(Weighted N)
Totals
(Weighted N)
Evangelical
Total
Very conservative
Conservative
Moderate
Yes
No
Yes
No
26%
74%
10%
90%
14%
86%
47%
53%
27%
73%
27%
73%
16%
84%
30%
70%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(592)
(100)
(227)
(194)
(232)
(341)
(133)
(424)
Gender
Invite
Not Invite
Tea Party
Age group
Party ID
Total
Male
Female
18-29
30-44
45-64
65+
Republican
Independent
26%
74%
36%
64%
15%
85%
19%
81%
34%
66%
28%
72%
18%
82%
20%
80%
32%
68%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
(592)
(317)
(275)
(64)
(124)
(276)
(128)
(277)
(286)
26

CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, New Hampshire: Nov. 15-19

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker, New Hampshire: Nov. 15-19

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CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker

1336 Registered Voters

1. Would you say things in this country today are...