Hello

:)

Where Catholicism is Headed:

Seven Trends that Will Aect
Your Parish, Ministry and Personal Faith

The Plan for Our Time

Together
u

Our plan

Global trends

Trends in England/Wales

My notes: mbeyer@ascensionpress.com

Q&A

The Church is not a

manufactured item. She
is the living seed of God
that must be allowed to
grow and ripen.
Pope Emeritus Benedict XVI

What We Mean by Trend

The things that make good
headlines are on the
surface of the stream of life,
and they distract us from
the slower, impalpable,
imponderable movements
that work below the surface
and penetrate to the
depths. But it is really these
deeper, slower movements
that make history
-Arnold J. Toynbee,
British Historian
Cited in The Future Church

A Few Disclaimers

I speak from an American perspective,

however

We will be moving quicklyregrettably. Why?

After each trend, Ill make the three

connections

This is very much a conversation

We will have a Q&A after

A Few More Disclaimers

u

Resist the initial urge to decide whether a trend

is positive or negative

No official Catholic trends agency

Some of this will be bad news; Some will

be good news; All will be interesting

Truth sets us free

Catholics should always ultimately have

hope Ecclesia in Europa

Sources
THE OFFICIAL CATHOLIC DIRECTORY

PewResearchCenter

Sources

Experience in the Church

u

24 years of pastoral, publishing, and

ministry experience at the parish,
diocesan, and national levels

Survey: Country

We administered a survey to over 740 Catholics

throughout the UK
Northern
Ireland
8%
Scotland
17%

England &
Wales
75%

Survey: Age
75 years or
older

13-24 years

65-74 years old

25-34 years old

55-64 years old

35-44 years old

45-54 years old

Survey: Mass Attendance

1-2 times per
year
3%
3-5 times per year
7%

Never
4%

1-2 times per

month
7%
Weekly
79%

Interview Process

We interviewed 24 people throughout the UK who

have varying perspectives and backgrounds within
the Church:

1 bishop

2 religious

1 parish priest

2 religion think tank

researchers

4 Catholic scholars

5 lay diocesan
employees

1 deacon

1 consecrated lay
person

4 involved in various
ministries

2 Catholic reporters

A partridge in a pear
tree

Trend #1:

Shifting Demographics

Shifting Demographics
General World Trends:

Populations of countries have

shifted, are shifting, and will
continue to shift due to
immigration, birth rates, and
refugee situations

As the Church is global, these

shifts will have great implications
for the life of the Church

Shifting Demographics
In Europe, the
Catholic population in
2050 is expected to be
about 5 percent
smaller than it is today,
due to below
replacement rate
fertility and
immigration, adding
few Catholics to the
overall population

-CARA

Birth Rate Trends in UK

Source: www.ons.gov.uk

Shifting Demographics

Source: The Wisdom Years, data taken from the U.S Census Bureau (2008)

(contd)

Shifting Demographics
u

A Church that has

historically invested
a large share of its
pastoral energy in
the young now has
to cope, beginning
in the North, with
the most rapidly
aging population in
human history
-John Allen

(contd)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

In 2050, U.S. Census: U.S. will have more Spanish

speakers than any Spanish speaking country in the
world, including Mexico (US Census Bureau).

In the U.S., Arabic and Urdu (Pakistans national

language) are the fastest-growing foreign
languages spoken at home (Center for Immigrant Studies).

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

The Demographics of the Church Are Shifting

The global Catholic population has grown by 57%
since 1980 (CARA)

Catholicism is gaining/holding ground in SubSaharan African territories, China, and the

Philippines (WSJ)

Shifting Demographics

Catholicism is losing ground in Europe, the

Middle East, and Latin America (WSJ).

Since 1980:

(contd)

Europe +6%
Africa +238%

(CARA)

Since Vatican II, France has seen an 18.5%

decrease in the percent of population that is
Catholic (WSJ).

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

The Demography of Church Hierarchy Is Shifting

The Church of the global south is

becoming more well-represented in
the Vatican.

13 of the 20 new cardinals

appointed by Pope Francis in 2015
were from Latin America, Africa, or
Asia (WSJ).

By contrast, from 1914-1922,

Benedict XV appointed 1 nonEuropean cardinal out of 32
cardinal appointments
(National Geographic)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

Under any conceivable scenario, Catholic

realignment does not augur a future in which the
South simply replaces the North, but rather one in
which ideas, movements, and controversies
radiate out from multiple centers in both North
and South
-John Allen (emphasis added)

Shifting Demographics

(contd)

Confirmations

54% drop
46% drop
38% drop
60% drop

Source: Christianity Today, June 2015

In 2000, there were more Catholic baptisms in the

Philippines alone than in France, Spain, Italy, and
Poland combined
-Allen

The Faith is Europe,

and Europe is the
Faith
-Hilaire Belloc

In broad terms, Southern

(hemisphere) Catholics are
robustly orthodox. Theyre not
interested in metaphorical
interpretations of the
Resurrection or the Eucharist;
they have no problem with
belief in miracles....

-Allen

The Net Result

For the Progressives
For the Orthodox

How do shifting demographics

affect

Your parish?

Shifts will save some parishes, but not others. Dioceses

tough decisions to make.
Foreign pastors ministering in parishes

Your ministry?

Make tough investments in producing resources in other

languages

Extreme secularization evangelization (of Catholics)

becomes even more necessary

Your faith life?

All called to stretch beyond comfort zone

Be open to other cultural expressions of Catholicism

Trend #2:

"Francis Effect

The "Francis Effect

Popularity: Oct. 7th (Gallup Poll)
General U.S. Public
28% more positive
6% more negative
U.S. Catholics
50% more positive
5% more negative

The "Francis Effect

The Divine Plan

Philosopher St. John Paul II
TheologianBenedict XVI
PastorPope Francis
Why?

Pastoral Approach
Lead with love/Jesus
Ad Intra vs. Ad Extra
The Theology of Encounter
Mercy

The Francis Effect on

Church Hierarchy
u

Has appointed:
u

13 percent of the
worlds active
bishops

26 percent of the
voting members of
the College of
Cardinals who would
elect his successor.

Ad Intra
Primarily
concerned
with

Examples

(from within)

(from a boundary)

Discussing and resolving

issues concerning the
internal life of the Church

Engaging the broader

religious and social
questions outside of the
Church.

-Womens ordination

- Our relationship with

Islam/anti-conversion
laws
-Tackling poverty or tribal
genocide

-Biblical criticism

With whom is
this most
associated?

Ad Extra

Generally the focus

of the global North
Church, and bishops.

Generally the focus

of the global South
Church, and bishops
-The Future Church

How does the Francis Effect

affect

Your parish?

Your ministry?

Increased focus on welcoming those on peripheries

Challenge for clergy to walk more closely with flock

Resurgence of social justice ministries

More success than in past decades in the area of
evangelization

Your faith life?

Left and right called out of their comfort zones to a

more integrated Catholicism
Views of the papacy will be altered

Trend #3:

Rise of Islam

Rise of Islam (contd)

Rise of Islam (contd)

Muslims 6% of the European population. By 2050,

Muslims will make up 10% of the overall European
population
-Pew, CARA

Median age:

European Christians 42
European Muslims 32
-Pew

The religious zeal of many Muslims also holds up an

uncomfortable mirror for Western Christians,
revealing the extent to which their own spiritual
force may have been sapped by secularization
-Allen

A Church whose primary interreligious

relationship for the last forty years has been with
Judaism now finds itself struggling to come to
terms with a newly assertive Islam, not just in the
Middle East, Africa, and Asia, but in its own
European background (Allen, 1).

Peter Kreeft on Islam:

Islam is attractive
because of its
simplicity. It is stark and
strong like the desert
from which it came. A
Muslim think he knows
exactly where he stands
in relation to Godthus
the growth rate
-Fundamentals of the Faith

How does the growth of

Islam affect

Your parish?

Your ministry?

Increase in theological and apologetical understanding

of Islam (seminars, pamphlets, etc.)
Shared opposition to secularism

Enriched understanding of what Islam is and how to

respond
Possible collaboration with more moderate Muslims

Your faith life

Be inspired to deeper and more faithful practice of your

own faith
Dont be afraid to share with Muslims your story of faith in
Jesus

Trend # 4:

Rise of Evangelical Catholicism

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (cont'd)
1) A clear embrace of traditional Catholic
thought, speech, and practice, the usual word
for which is orthodoxy.
2) Eagerness to proclaim
ones Catholic identity to
the world, emphasizing its
implications for culture,
society and politics;
3) Faith seen as a matter
of personal choice
rather than cultural
inheritance

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
John Allen, in The Future
Church, writes: Beginning with
the election of John Paul II in
1978 Catholicism has
become steadily more
evangelicaluncompromising
and unabashedly itself, more
interested in evangelizing
culture than accommodating
it.

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Observed by left, right, and center
A noticeable movement toward intentional
discipleship

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Allen proposes that
Evangelical
Catholicism embraces
a strategy to ensure
that the weakening of
religious faith and
practice in the secular
world is not
reproduced inside the
Church.

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
According to Weigel: Not a
way of being Catholic that
adapts catechetical
practices or modes of
worship of Protestant
churchesNot a movement
within Catholicism, or sect, or
new kind of Catholic
elite.Not a substitute for
Roman Catholicism.

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
Its a movement, according to
Weigel, that moves the Church
out of the stagnant shallows of
institutional management and
towards a dynamic, intentional
Christian discipleship and
proclamation.
Leo XIII
Vatican II / Pope St. John XXII
Pope St. John Paul II &
Benedict XVI
Pope Francis

The Rise of Evangelical

Catholicism (contd)
A noticeable presence in
ministry and policy, and
growing within diocesan
structures
Due to shift to southern
hemisphere
Unique combination of
orthodoxy with a social
justice emphasis

How does evangelical

Catholicism affect

Your parish

Not be afraid of more intentional Catholics

Need for solid Catechesis that reaches all ages

Your ministry?

Ministries are being infused with new vision, hope, and

success

Need to be careful to avoid us vs. them mentality within

ministries

Your faith life?

Rub shoulders with Catholics with whom you might be

uncomfortable

Challenges our own commitment to the Faith.

Trend #5:

New Evangelization

New Evangelization
New ardor, new approaches, and new
methods for the sake of a New Evangelization
Bottom up, top down
Diocese oces now dedicated to the
New Evangelization
Apostolates and Ministries
Francis is a continuation

In the UK
u

Of 13-44 year olds we surveyed, 79% have

encountered the term New Evangelization
u

Sample size: 239

Of 45-75+ year olds, only 66% have

encountered the term
u

Sample size: 428

How does the New Evangelization

affect

Your parish?

The Churchs foundational identity is missionary

Be creative about new ways to reach and draw people

back to church

Promote a should do and can do mentality to your

staff and parishioners

Your ministry?

All ministries need to have an underlying posture of mission

Ground your ministries in prayer

Your faith life?

Your baptismal call means you are called to bear fruit

Be prepared to give testimony of what God has done in

your life

Trend #6:

New Savvy

New Savvy
People from business world, converts, and the
young
The people of this world Lk 16:8
New boldness, new creativity because
secularism is winning the day

New Savvy

Bishop Barrons
Catholicism

Catholics Come
Home

Chosen

Altaration

Rebuilt

(cont'd)

New Savvy

(cont'd)

Our Lady of
Walsingham

How does the New Savvy affect

Your parish?

Do not be afraid of secular strategies and energetic personalities

Look for people within parish who have secular skillsets

Invest in updating website; Use social media to connect with

parishioners

Your ministry?

Work with people whom you may theologically disagree

Fight the tendency to do things the ways ministries have been

done

Find best practices from the secular world (financial, marketing, etc.)

Your faith life?

Pray about what gifts you possess and can offer to the Church

Bring your talents and ideas to the powers-that-be

Trend #7

A Big Picture Trend?

The Smaller
But More Intentional
Church?

A Snapshot of the Church in the West

1965 2014

The Discerning
and Hopeful Church
(1960 1970)

The Refocused Church

(Present)
Pope Francis
Self-reverential must
give way
Lead with love

The Internally
Solidifying Church
(1980 Present)

The Rising Church

(1990 Present)
New apostolates
enthusiastic for Faith
Vatican II settling
in and knowing of
who we really are

Vatican II
Cultural changes
Move away from
rote Catholicism

Abuse
Scandal

St. John Paul II and

Benedict XVI
New
Catechism &

Code of
Canon Law
Encyclicals

The Uncertain
Church
(1965 1980)
Too much change, too
quickly
Everything seems up for
grabs
Decline in vocations
Increased lay involvement

The Secularized Church

(1970 2000 to Present)
Clerical leadership in
West appeared
uncertain
Rapid decline in
church
participation

UK Church Trends

Trend #1:

Increased Lay Involvement

u

We will see more lay leadership in parishes, as a result

of the priest shortage and the call to the New
Evangelization

69% of survey respondents stated that they are

aware of a growing number of lay
Catholics helping lead and serve within their
parishes.

Survey: Lay Involvement

69.2%
51.8%
38.5%
18.0%
I am aware of a
growing number
of lay (nonordained)
Catholics helping
lead and serve
within their
parishes.

I am actively
involved in the life
of my parish (e.g.,
particiating in
parish ministries or
charitable outreach
programs, helping
distribute
communion,
lectoring at mass,
etc.).

I am involved in
a Catholic
ministry or
organization
independent of
my parish.

*746 respondents answered this question.

None of the
Above

Trend #1:

Increased Lay Involvement (contd)

u

Of those involved
in parish life, 58%
are also involved
in ministries or
Catholic
organizations
outside of their
parishes

63% of 18-34 year

olds who
responded are
actively involved
in their parish

Trend #2:

A Leaner Church
u

Continued decrease in Mass attendance and

numbers of Catholics, but increased clarity and
commitment of those who identify as Catholic

20/23 of those we interviewed shared this sentiment:

I think many people will stop identifying as Catholics, and the
ones who remain will do so because they are clear about what
they believe. We will become a mustard-seed church.

2011 Catholic Population and Mass Attendance

700000

Est. Catholic Population

Mass Attendance
600000

500000

400000

300000

200000

100000

Figures used were gathered from the Pastoral & Population Statistics of the Catholic Community of England and Wales, 2011 and 2012: Summary

PERCENT OF CATHOLICS WHO ATTEND MASS

(2011)
C ARD IFF* * *

20%

S OUT HW ARK

17%

S AL FORD

23%
19%
22%
22%
21%

PLYMOUT H

16%

NORT HAM PT ON

15%

L IV E RPOOL
LANC ASTER

18%
20%
19%

HAL L AM

18%

C LIFT ON

26%

22%

22%
22%

23%

19%

25%
25%

BIRM INGHAM
W E S T M I N S TER

24%
0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Figures used were gathered from the Pastoral & Population Statistics of the Catholic Community of England and Wales,
2011 and 2012: Summary

Trend #3:

Changes in Transmission of Faith

u

The transmission of the faith will be harder to

accomplish in Catholic schoolsgrowing
pressure will mount on the parishes to transmit
faith through new methods of catechesis.

There has been a push against faith schools who are actively
trying to transmit their faith to the students. The government is
concerned about radicalization and indoctrination in certain
Muslim schools, but the government has to make policies that
apply to all faith schools in this regard."

They cannot just target Muslim schools, so they may be

applying more restrictions to Catholic schools in the future, as
well.
-Director of a think tank that researches the intersection of religion and society

Trend #3:

Changes in Transmission of Faith

(contd)

Parents will need to be catechized to take on a

more active role in transmitting the faith

Trend # 4:

Increasing Tension with Culture

u

If identity of Catholic Church in the UK sharpens,

UK Catholicism will likely become more high
tension, and there will be more pronounced
friction between the Church and mainstream UK
culture

This may result in growth

I think that many practicing Catholics have a sense that it

will become increasingly difficult for them to practice their
faith within mainstream society in the coming years. I dont
think that sentiment was present twenty or thirty years ago.
-A Catholic journalist in the UK

Trend #5:
Immigrant Catholics
u

Immigrant Catholics will play large role in life of the

UK Church.

In my parish, most British Catholics are older than sixtyI am a

rare exception. Most of the younger congregation is Filipino or
Nigerian, and they bring a lively dimension to our parish. Most of
those who receive the Sacraments of Initiation are also Filipino
or Nigerian.
-A 20-something British male from a parish northeast of London

Micro Trends

Small increases in vocations to priesthood and

religious life

Increased focus on social justice ad extra

approach

Increase in Eucharistic adoration and Marian

devotions

Attraction to religious movements and lay

communities

Growth in ministries led by and directed towards

young adults beginning to see new savvy

Rising interest in the Traditionalist Latin Mass

Some increase in homeschooling

Push for parish-renewal

Some concluding
thoughts

Its not really a question of which way the

Church will go, but which ways
-Allen

My Thoughts
u

Burgeoning of dynamic orthodoxy

u

Vertical is solidified, so now we can get to the

horizontal more intentionally

Orthodox Catholics will move to left towards action

Progressive Catholics will move to right or leave

Church

Contd implementation of Vatican II dynamics

Rediscovery of traditional elements of Catholicism

Fewer Catholics, clearer in identification

Increasing comfort with harnessing gifts in secular world

for sake of Gospel

More lay people working in the Church greater

financial investment will be needed

More pain in wider culture, more turning to Christianity

to heal the pain

Hope is the Essential Word

Why I am here:
Heritage, heroism, and hope
u Momentary amnesia can it be cured?
u

Secular humanism vs. Christian humanism

Begin with Ecclesia in Europa
u

God is making a tapestry