BR cnc" cna" OCT 16 2016 MEMORANDUM TO MINISTER CHANG) MIN-185318 IN CANADIAN CLIMATE (For Information) PURPOSE To provide you with information on how Canada’s climate is changing. SUMMARY + There are many scientific indicators that the Earth’s climate is changing. These changes include increasing air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, rising sea level, and increases in the frequency of extreme weather and weather-related events. + Canada is experiencing rising average temperatures (daily, monthly, seasonal, and annual) and changing precipitation patterns. In Canada’s north, rising temperatures are contributing to declines in snow cover and sea ice cover (both in terms of geographic area and duration) and to thawing permafrost. These observations are consistent with global climate trends. + Climate change is influenced by both natural processes and human activities. The ‘warming since pre-industrial times has been largely attributed to human activity, primarily the release of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. + While the Earth’s climate continues to warm over the long term, the climate will still vary naturally from season to season and from year to year, and not every year will set new records. This also holds true for Canada, and natural variation does not mean that climate change has stopped. + The knowledge, products, services, and tools produced as a result of Environment Canada’s research help Canadians make informed decisions on how to mitigate and adapt to these changes. CONTEXT AND CURRENT STATUS Weather refers to changes in temperature, precipitation, etc., from hours to a few weeks or, in other words, what people experience each day. Climate is the longer term view of these conditions over time frames of seasons to centuries. For example, Ottawa and Montréal have a similar climate; however, they may have very different weather on any given day. To understand how climate is changing, scientists look at the total change over a given time period (e.g,, over time scales ranging from seasons to decades to centuries), as well as how each part of the climate system (e.g., temperature, rain, snow) changes on a seasonal or yearly basis ‘within that longer time period. Climate change is gradual and is evident only with long-term monitoring. Canada wee gece } } 'Because of natural climate variability, some winters are naturally colder or have more snow than others, while some summers are warmer or drier than others. On top of this natural climate variability, however, the overall climate system of the Earth has been warming due to increased levels of greenhouse gases that are emitted into the atmosphere. ‘The increase in global average temperature (known as “global warming”) is only one indicator of how much the Earth’s climate is warming. There are many other indicators of a warming climate, such as changing precipitation patterns, widespread melting of snow and ice, thawing permafrost, and increasing frequency of severe weather around the world. Together, these provide a consistent picture and robust evidence of a warming world. Current concems regarding climate change are the rate and extent of change and understanding the reasons for these changes. The current levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are unprecedented in the last 800 000 years and have led to a much warmer climate. The international scientific community has determined that recent changes in many aspects of the global climate have been primarily caused by the build-up of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and has determined that human activities are the cause of this build-up. ‘The following sections highlight some of the key indicators of climate change in Canada. ‘Temperature Canada’s land mass has warmed by 1.6°C from 1948 to 2013, about twice the global average. Within Canada, all regions have warmed, with the greatest warming in the North and in western Canada, For example, Canada’s north has warmed by 2.2°C from 1948 to 2013. Warming has been observed in all seasons, but it has been most pronounced in winter and spring. Based on global climate datasets, 2001-2010 was the warmest decade on record. In Canada, 2010 was the warmest year on record, with temperatures on average 3°C warmer than normal. Recent years (e.g., 2011 and 2012) have continued that trend, being among the 10 warmest years since 1948. Climate normals and averages are used to summarize the average climatic conditions of a particular location. For national temperature in Canada, normal is defined as the mean over the 1961-1990 reference period. Figure 1 shows how much warmer or colder the annual average temperature for a given year was than the 30-year average (ie, the annual temperature departures) for Canada for every year from 1948 (when nation-wide records began) to 2013. This graph demonstrates the year-to-year variability (the blue line) and the long-term trend (dashed red line). While the average annual temperature in Canada has increased since 1948, there are still some years that are colder than others3 Departures from 1961-1990 average Linear vend of 1.6°C (red) 4 1950 1960 1970 1980) 1980 2000 2010 Year Figure 1. Annual temperature departures for Canada from 1948 to 2013, relative to the 1961-1990 reference period. (Source: Environment Canada, Climate Trends and Variability Bulletin, http://www .ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=F3D25729-1) Precipitation Annual precipitation in Canada increased by 19% over the period 1948-2012. This increase was not uniform across the country. Some regions experienced a more significant increase in precipitation, while others experienced lesser increases. Snow cover The area of Canada that is covered by snow at the beginning of the spring melt period, measured in June each year (i.c., the extent of spring snow cover), is declining. Trends in the extent of spring snow cover over Canada are consistent with the larger-scale Northern Hemisphere trend of declining spring snow cover. The rate of decline has become more rapid in recent decades. ‘Water supply and soil moisture in many parts of the country can be affected by changes in snow cover, with runoff from spring melt often critical to surface water supply in the high demand summer period, Sea ice Observations of ice conditions in the Arctic over the past 10 years show record losses of sea ict including the new record minimum ice extent in 2012. The extent of the sea ice in the Arctic is decreasing for all months of the year between 1979 and 2013, with the largest rate of decreasebeing in September, at 13.7% per decade. Arctic sea ice extent refers to the area of the Arctic Ocean that is covered by sea ice. See also the Background section for additional information, ‘The changes in Arctic sea ice over time also show significant variability from year to year. Figure 2 shows the decline in the extent of the sea ice over the period 1979-2013. Note that 2012 had the lowest sea ice extent on record (Figure 2). The extent of the sea ice in 2013 was higher than the record low of 2012 (Figure 2); however, it was still well below the average for the period 1981 to 2010 (see Figure 3, which shows the extent of the sea ice in ‘September 2013 compared to the average over the period 1981-2010). Average Monthly Arctic Sea Ice Extent September 1979 - 2013 Extent (milion square kilometers) National Sow and le Data Genter 197819831988 = 19931998 ©2003. 20082013, Year Figure 2. Decline in sea ice extent over the period 1979-2013. The black line shows the year-to-year variability and the blue line shows the long-term trend over the period 1979 to 2013. (Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colo.)Reverso Seek) median eeu Exon nu) Figure 3. Average sea ice extent for September 2013. The white area on the map shows the sea ice for September 2013, with the long-term average (1981 to 2010) extent of September sea ice shown by the pink line. (Source: National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, Colorado.) Permafrost Permafrost temperatures have risen about 0.2°C per decade in warm, discontinuous permafrost regions. In northern tundra regions, permafrost temperatures recorded since the mid-1990s have shown an increase of >1°C per decade. Observed increases are largely attributable to higher winter air temperatures.Extreme events Extreme events or extreme weather includes unusual or severe weather. The Fifth Assessment Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded that there is evidence of change in some climate extremes and there is evidence, although currently fairly limited, that some extremes have changed as a result of human-induced climate change. They also noted that extreme events are rare and this means there are few data available for analysis. It is difficult to attribute any one particular extreme event (e.g., the Toronto ice storm or the Calgary flood of 2013) to climate change caused by human activities. Attributing extreme events to human activities and related emissions of greenhouse gases is an active area of research in the scientific community around the world. Climate model simulations of future climate indicate that 4 continuation of trends in extreme temperatures is virtually certain, Increases in the length, intensity, and frequency of multi-day warm spells and heat waves are also projected. Canadian extreme weather events have not yet been studied to attribute the degree to which climate change has played a role. CONSIDERATIONS: Given Canada’s large geographical size and the fact that the climate does not change uniformly across Canada, indicators of climate change may be more evident in some communities than in others. Natural year-to-year climate variability also means that certain indicators of change may be more noticeable in some years than in others. However, looking at long-term data across all regions, it is evident that the climate is changing both within Canada and globally. Environment Canada has a world-class climate research capability and plays a leadership role in national and international efforts to understand climate system behaviour, the human influence on climate, and future climate change. This foundational climate information and data underpins the development of climate services, products, and tools to help Canadians make informed decisions on how to mitigate and adapt to these changes. Environment Canada provides climate information to Canadians to support adaptation research and climate impact studies. A list of this information is available in Annex 1. Cy Michael Martin DeputyBACKGROUND Sea ice Every summer, sea ice in the Arctic melts and recedes, but not completely; there is always some ice left in the Arctic Ocean and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago at the end of summer. The sea ice cover reaches its minimum extent typically around mid-September. ‘The extent of sea ice in the Arctic decreased for all months of the year between 1979 and 2013. ‘The extent of sea ice for 2014, from data analyzed to date, is below the long-term average but higher than in the past several years (i.e., it is lower than average, but not a record-breaking year) ‘The southern route of the Northwest Passage has been navigable (navigable meaning <60% ice cover over all sections) for a few weeks each summer since 2006. The northern route of the Northwest Passage has been navigable for a few weeks every summer since 2007, except for 2009. In the summer of 2013, however, the route was closed to all ships except icebreakers. Global climate models indicate that itis very likely that the ice cover in the Arctic will continue to shrink and will become thinner during the 21st century. This is consistent with projections of continued warming temperatures in the Arctic. Computer models used in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report show a nearly ice-free Arctic during the summer by late this century if only limited actions are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Itis, however, expected that some sea ice will still be present within Canadian waters in the Arctic and that sea ice will remain a hazard to maritime navigation, including those ships transiting the Northwest Passage. Climate Information Environment Canada provides climate information to Canadians to support adaptation research and climate impact studies. Examples are: * The Meteorological Service of Canada National Climate Data Archive is the source of official historical climate data for Canada: hitp://climate.weather.ge.ca, ‘* Adjusted and homogenized Canadian climate data are used to examine seasonal variation. and long-term changes in Canada’s climate: htip://www.ec.ge.ca/decha-aheed. ‘* Global and regional climate models provide projections of future climate in Canada and globally: htip:/www.ccema.ec.ge.ca, * The Canadian Climate Data and Scenarios website provides access to future climate scenarios in Canada: http:/Avww,ccesn.ec. ca, * The Climate Trends and Scenarios Bulletin provides a regular summary of recent, Canadian climate data in a historical context: http://www.ec.gc.ca//adsc-cmda, * EC provides snow water equivalent maps through the Canadian Cryospheric Information Network (a joint project between government and academic researchers in Canada) toprovide information on water availability from Canad: northern snowpack: http://www.ccin.ca EC climate scientists publish over 100 peer-reviewed scientific articles, on average, annually. EC researchers contribute to international science assessments of climate and climate change. For exampl ° ° the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports; the Arctic Council Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic Assessment; the Arctic Council Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Technical Reports; the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Arctic Report Card; and the State of the Climate report, published as a special supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society