Viet Nam in 2016: A Contest for

the Next Secretary General

Carlyle A. Thayer
Teleconference Presentation to
[client name deleted]
Canberra, November 18, 2015

Preparations for the 12th National

Party Congress
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Duties of the national party congress

Who attends the national congress?
The Central Committee
Rules on Leadership Selection
Draft Policy Documents
Future Leaders the new Secretary General

1. Duties of the National Party Congress

held every five years
1

Approve Political Report

Approve Socio-Economic Plan

Amend Party Statutes

Amend Party Platform

Elect Central Committee

2. Who Attends and Votes at

the National Congress?
1,400 delegates selected by party congtresses
63 Provincial and Municipal Party Level
Ho Chi Minh City, Haiphong, Da Nang, Hanoi

68 centrally-run party committee level

10th Military Party Committee
Party Committee of Central Enterprises Bloc
Party Committee for Central Agencies
Central Public Security Party Committee

When will the 12th National Party

Congress be held?

First quarter of 2016

Early 2016
January 7-9, 2016
Postponed

3. The Central Committee

Formal name Central Executive Committee
Has power between national congresses
Required by party statutes to meet twice a year
Common to meet 3 times a year
Prior to National Assembly
Last year 1 executive session or plenum
Ths year 3 plenums so far

The Current Central Committee

175 full members (218 candidates)
25 alternate members (61 candidates)
of which:
14 are Politburo members (expanded to
16 in 2013)
4 are members of the Secretariat
21 are members the Control Committee

Sectoral Composition of the VCP

Central Committee 2011
11%

9%

Senior Party

38%
42%

Central PartyState
Secondary/Provi
ncial
Armed Forces

The general composition of the Central Committee is unlikely to change after 12th Congress

Generational Change on the VCP

Central Committee 2011

58%
42%

Full members
retained
Alternate members
promoted
New full members

4. Rules on Leadership Selection

Retirement age 65
Or two terms in office
Special exemptions
Over 65 years of age and can complete two-thirds
of term before turning 70

Directive 44 eligibility for elections to

Central Committee
not from congress floor

13 New Criteria for Selection as a

Central Committee Member
Must not contain any one who commits one of
the following mistakes and wrongdoings:
1. inconsistent political will,
2. politically opportunistic and lust for power,
engages in corruption and red tape,
3. involved with special interest groups,
4. violates democratic centralism,

New Criteria for Selection as a

Central Committee Member
5. Must not contain any one who commits one
of the following mistakes and wrongdoings:
authoritarian,
6. unfair in appraising personnel,
7. represses whistleblowers and critics,
8. responsible for serious internal disunity,
Engages in corruption and wastage,

New Criteria for Selection as a

Central Committee Member
9. weak professional performance and
discipline, fails to carry out Party
assignments,
10.dishonest in declaring assets,
11. inappropriate lifestyle for oneself, spouse,
children,
12. abuse of power to acquire ill-gotten gains,
13. or having an unclear political profile

When will Vietnams new leaders be selected?

1st Plenum of new Central Committee

Delegates Elect Central Committee

Elect Politburo

Elect Secretary General

Elect other party leaders

Vietnams Power Elite

Secretary
General
Prime
Minister

State
President
Head
Fatherland
Front

Permanent
Secretary
Party
Secretariat

Chair National
Assembly
Standing
Committee

These positions will be refilled after the 12th National Party Congress

5. Draft Policy Documents

Special website dedicated to 12th
Congress preparations inaugurated on
September 14
http://doihot12.dangcongsan.vn/

Draft Socio-Economic Plan for the next

five years, 2016-2020
Draft Political Report
Public feedback until end of October

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

The overall objective is to maintain macroeconomic stability while striving for higher
economic growth than previous years.
The government targets average GDP growth
over the next five years of 6.5-7 per cent per
year, totalling from VND33,840 trillion ($1.51
trillion) to VND34,250 trillion ($1.53 trillion).
By 2020 GDP per capita will stand at $3,670$3,750.

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

The contribution made by industry,
construction and services is targeted to
represent 70 per cent of GDP.
Inflation will be managed at around 5-7 per
cent per year, and average total investment
over the five years is to be around 31 per cent
of GDP, or VND10,506 trillion ($470.35 billion).

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

Public deficit in 2020 will have been managed
at less than 4.8 per cent of GDP, with the
budget deficit to be gradually reduced to 4.8
per cent.
Public debt will not be higher than 65 per cent
of GDP by 2020, government debt no higher
than 55 per cent of GDP, and national debt
borrowed from other countries no higher than
50 per cent of GDP.

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

Total-factor productivity (TFP) is to contribute 3035 per cent of economic growth. Labor
productivity will grow 4-5 per cent per year on
average.
Mobilized budget funds will be set at 20-21 per
cent of GDP, of which 19-20 per cent is to come
from taxes and fees. The budget balance in 20162020 is estimated at VND7,000 trillion ($313.39
billion), as budget revenue in the period is to
increase 1.7-fold against the last five years.

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

The government has put budget spending at
VND8,660 trillion ($387.70 billion) in the next
five years, accounting for over 25 per cent of
GDP, and in 2020 will be 1.7-fold higher than
in 2015, with average spending over the next
five years to be 1.6-fold higher than in the last
five years.

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

Appropriate public debt level
Total demand for borrowing by the government in the 2016-2020
period will be from VND3,020 trillion to VND3,090 trillion ($135.20
billion to $138.33 billion). Borrowing to cover the budget deficit will be
VND1,360 trillion ($60.88 billion) and borrowing for lending at about
VND280 trillion ($12.53 billion), with the remainder for repaying
existing debt as terms expire.
Total ODA borrowing and borrowing from preferential sources of
donors to balance the budget over the next five years will be VND250
trillion ($11.19 billion).
Total foreign borrowing by enterprises to 2020 is estimated to reach
$52-$53 billion, of which medium and long-term debt will be about
$35-$36 billion and short-term borrowing about $17 billion,

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

In the next five years the government will complete the
legal framework on managing public debt in line with
the Law on Public Debt 2015, the Law on Public
Investment 2014, and other related laws.
The government will also re-calculate the public debt
ceiling for each year over the next five years, based on
analysis of the debt situation and to secure the ability
of repay in certain economic conditions.

Draft Socio-Economic Plan, 2016-2020

The structure of debt will re re-organized,
increasing long-term debt, increasing foreign
borrowing to ease repayment pressure in the
short term and reduce the risk from global
economic fluctuations.
The government also commits to strictly
supervising the use of loans and adopting
regulations to increase consistency among fiscal
policy, public investment, and public debt
management.

Draft Political Report

1. Overview of the implementation of the
resolution of the 11th National Party Congress
(2011-2015) and looking back 30 years of
renovation (1986-2016)
2. General objectives and tasks of national
development in five years from 2016 to 2020
3. Innovating the growth model and restructuring
the economy; stepping up industrialization and
modernization of the country
4. Improving the institution, developing socialistoriented market economy

Draft Political Report

5. Renewing education and training
basically and comprehensively;
developing human resources
6. Developing and applying science and
technology
7. Developing culture and human resourcer
development
8. Managing social development;
implementing progress and social justice

Draft Political Report

9. Strengthening natural resources management;
environmental protection; taking initiative in
preventing and combating natural disasters,
coping with climate change
10. Strengthening national defense and security,
firmly defend the Socialist Republic of Vietnam in
the new situation
11. Improving the efficiency of diplomatic
activities, taking initiative and active in
international integration

Draft Political Report

12. Upholding the strength of the great
national unity
13. Upholding socialist democracy, ensuring
the implementation of the people's right of
mastery
14. Improving the socialist law-governed State
15. Building the clean and strong Party and
enhancing leadership capacity and
combativeness of the Party

6. New Leaders
the Next Secretary General

Vote of Confidence January 2015

Three Scenarios
Scenario 1
Someone over 65 will be granted an
exemption
Two contenders current Prime Minister
Nguyen Tan Dung and state President Truong
Tan Sang
Unprecedented held 2 terms of office in one
post and then switch to party leader

New Leaders
the Next Secretary General

Scenario 2
No consensus on exemption for those over 65
Next Secretary General must be chosen from
among 7 members of Politburo under 65
Two were appointed in 2013 so selection will
come from among remaining 5
Scenario 3
if no consensus present party leaders will stay in
office until consensus reached on replacement

Over 65 in 2016 - 12th Congress

Added to
Politburo in 2013:

Nguyn Th Kim Ngn

Nguyn Thin Nhn

Power Struggle for Party Leadership?

Deputy Prime Ministers

Who will replace Nguyn Tn Dng as Prime Minister after 12th National Party Congress
Hong Trung Hi, Nguyn Xun Phc, V Vn Ninh or someone else?
Prime Minister
Nguyn Tn Dng
Hong
Trung Hi

Nguyn
Xun Phc

V Vn
Ninh

Phm
Bnh Minh

Newly appointed 2013

Year of Birth:
1954

V c
am

1954

1955

1963

1959

Prior to 2006 the next Prime Minister was invariably the first or permanent Deputy
Prime Minister. There is uncertainty as the 12th National Party Congress approaches

Final Observations
There may another plenary session of the
Central Committee between now and the
national congress to decide leadership
Key policy documents appear general and
vague product of compromise
Party delegates to congress have demanded
greater say in the past
Central Committee playing more powerful role