Demanda Ventanilla

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado
para el Macro Proyecto Pachacutec del Distrito de Ventanilla
INFORME FINAL
PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE AGUA POTABLE

0.7861641816
TOTAL
COBERTURA (%)
AO
POBLACION
CONEX.
OTROS
MEDIOS
(*)
CONEXIONES DE AGUA POTABLE

POBLACION
SERVIDA
(hab)
VIVIENDAS
SERVIDAS
(unidades)
PERDIDAS
DE AGUA
POTABLE
(%)
CONEXIONES DOMESTICO
C/MED.
S/MED.
TOTAL
CONEXIONES
COMERCIALES
C/MED.
S/MED.
CONEXIONES
INDUSTRIALES
TOTAL
C/MED.
S/MED.
CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/da)
CONEXIONES ESTATALES
Y UNIVERSIDAD
TOTAL
C/MED.
S/MED.
TOTAL
CONEXIONES SOCIALES
C/MED.
S/MED.
TOTAL CONEXIONES
TOTAL
C/MED.
S/MED.
CONSUMO
DOMESTICO
CONSUMO
COMERCIAL
CONSUMO
INDUSTRIAL
DEMANDA AGUA
CONSUMO
ESTATAL Y
UNIV
CONSUMO
SOCIAL
CONSUMO
TOTAL
CONECTADO
Qp (t/seg)
Qp (m3/ao)
Qmd
(lt/seg)
Qmh
(lt/seg)
Volumen
Requerido
(m3)
TOTAL
2,008
Base
147,119
10.4%
89.6%
15,369
3,423
0.00%
3,423
3,423
3,423
3,423
2,183,874
2,183,874
31.6
996,538
41.1
56.9
2,009
159,403
10.2%
89.8%
16,202
3,609
0.00%
3,609
3,609
3,609
3,609
2,302,542
2,302,542
33.3
1,050,780
43.3
60.0
930.5
981.0
2,010
172,714
9.7%
90.3%
16,726
3,725
0.00%
3,725
3,725
3,725
3,725
2,376,550
2,376,550
34.4
1,084,523
44.7
61.9
1,013.4
2,011
187,135 100.0%
0%
187,135
41,677
25.00%
41,677
41,677
41
41
40
40
40
40
40
40
41,838
41,838
26,589,926
71,600
159,547
266,000
84,000
27,171,072
393.10
12,396,802
511.03
707.58
12,081
2,012
202,761 100.0%
0%
202,761
45,160
25.00%
45,160
45,160
41
41
40
40
41
41
40
40
45,322
45,322
28,812,080
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
29,693,226
429.60
13,547,866
558.48
773.28
13,158
2,013
207,648 100.0%
0%
207,648
46,248
25.00%
46,248
46,248
41
41
40
40
41
41
40
40
46,410
46,410
29,506,224
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
30,387,370
439.62
13,863,856
571.51
791.32
13,452
2,014
212,669 100.0%
0%
212,669
47,366
25.00%
47,366
47,366
41
41
40
40
41
41
40
40
47,528
47,528
30,219,508
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,100,654
449.96
14,189,939
584.95
809.93
13,756
2,015
217,829 100.0%
0%
217,829
48,514
25.00%
48,514
48,514
41
41
40
40
41
41
40
40
48,676
48,676
30,951,932
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,833,078
460.55
14,523,905
598.72
828.99
14,069
2,016
223,131 100.0%
0%
223,131
49,695
25.00%
49,695
49,695
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
49,889
49,889
31,705,410
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
32,702,436
473.13
14,920,628
615.07
851.63
14,440
2,017
228,583 100.0%
0%
228,583
50,909
25.00%
50,909
50,909
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
51,103
51,103
32,479,942
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
33,476,968
484.32
15,273,516
629.62
871.78
14,769
2,018
234,190 100.0%
0%
234,190
52,157
25.00%
52,157
52,157
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
52,351
52,351
33,276,166
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
34,273,192
495.86
15,637,441
644.62
892.55
15,108
2,019
239,957 100.0%
0%
239,957
53,443
25.00%
53,443
53,443
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
53,637
53,637
34,096,634
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,093,660
507.74
16,012,089
660.06
913.93
15,458
2,020
10
245,892 100.0%
0%
245,892
54,765
25.00%
54,765
54,765
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
54,959
54,959
34,940,070
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,937,096
519.92
16,396,197
675.90
935.86
15,819
2,021
11
252,001 100.0%
0%
252,001
56,125
25.00%
56,125
56,125
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
56,319
56,319
35,807,750
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
36,804,776
532.48
16,792,289
692.22
958.46
16,190
2,022
12
258,290 100.0%
0%
258,290
57,526
25.00%
57,526
57,526
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
57,720
57,720
36,701,588
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
37,698,614
545.40
17,199,734
709.02
981.72
16,569
2,023
13
264,769 100.0%
0%
264,769
58,970
25.00%
58,970
58,970
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
59,164
59,164
37,622,860
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
38,619,886
558.74
17,620,425
726.36 1,005.73
16,963
2,024
14
271,445 100.0%
0%
271,445
60,457
25.00%
60,457
60,457
49
49
48
48
49
49
48
48
60,651
60,651
38,571,566
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
39,568,592
572.45
18,052,783
744.19 1,030.41
17,365
2,025
15
278,326 100.0%
0%
278,326
61,988
25.00%
61,988
61,988
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
62,214
62,214
39,548,344
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
40,661,250
588.28
18,551,998
764.76 1,058.90
17,830
2,026
16
285,422 100.0%
0%
285,422
63,569
25.00%
63,569
63,569
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
63,795
63,795
40,557,022
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
41,669,928
602.87
19,012,108
783.73 1,085.17
18,263
2,027
17
292,742 100.0%
0%
292,742
65,199
25.00%
65,199
65,199
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
65,425
65,425
41,596,962
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
42,709,868
617.91
19,486,410
803.28 1,112.24
18,704
2,028
18
300,297 100.0%
0%
300,297
66,880
25.00%
66,880
66,880
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
67,106
67,106
42,669,440
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
43,782,346
633.42
19,975,533
823.45 1,140.16
19,161
2,029
19
308,098 100.0%
0%
308,098
68,618
25.00%
68,618
68,618
57
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
68,844
68,844
43,778,284
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
44,891,190
649.47
20,481,686
844.31 1,169.05
19,637
57
56
56
57
57
56
56
70,640
70,640
44,924,132
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
46,037,038
666.04
21,004,237
865.85 1,198.87
20,124
2,030
20
316,157 100.0%
0%
316,157
70,414
70,414
0
70,414
57
25.00%
(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a abastecimientopor acarreo o por cualquier medio en el que no se extraiga agua potable del sistema
Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

INFORME FINAL
Cuadro de Oferta Demanda Volumen de Almacenamiento

TOTAL
Demanda Total QP
Ao
(m3/ao)
2,008
Base
2,009
(lt/seg)
Volumen Demanda
QMD
(lt/seg)
QMH
(lt/seg)
Vol. Reg.
(m3)
Vol. Res.
(m3)
Vol. Contra
Incen. (m3)
Vol. Total
(m3)
Volumen
Oferta (m3)
Volumen
Requerido
(m3)
996,538
31.60
41.08
56.88
682
682
9600
8918
1,050,780
33.32
43.32
59.98
719
719
9600
8881
2,010
1,084,523
34.39
44.71
61.90
743
270
1013
9600
8587
2,011
12,396,802
393.10
511.03
707.58
8490
3091
500
12081
9600
-2481
2,012
13,547,866
429.60
558.48
773.28
9280
3378
500
13158
9600
-3558
2,013
13,863,856
439.62
571.51
791.32
9496
3456
500
13452
9600
-3852
2,014
14,189,939
449.96
584.95
809.93
9718
3538
500
13756
9600
-4156
2,015
14,523,905
460.55
598.72
828.99
9948
3621
500
14069
9600
-4469
2,016
14,920,628
473.13
615.07
851.63
10220
3720
500
14440
9600
-4840
2,017
15,273,516
484.32
629.62
871.78
10461
3808
500
14769
9600
-5169
2,018
15,637,441
495.86
644.62
892.55
10709
3899
500
15108
9600
-5508
2,019
16,012,089
507.74
660.06
913.93
10966
3992
500
15458
9600
-5858
2,020
10
16,396,197
519.92
675.90
935.86
11231
4088
500
15819
9600
-6219
2,021
11
16,792,289
532.48
692.22
958.46
11503
4187
500
16190
9600
-6590
2,022
12
17,199,734
545.40
709.02
981.72
11781
4288
500
16569
9600
-6969
2,023
13
17,620,425
558.74
726.36
1005.73
12070
4393
500
16963
9600
-7363
2,024
14
18,052,783
572.45
744.19
1030.41
12364
4501
500
17365
9600
-7765
2,025
15
18,551,998
588.28
764.76
1058.90
12705
4625
500
17830
9600
-8230
2,026
16
19,012,108
602.87
783.73
1085.17
13023
4740
500
18263
9600
-8663
2,027
17
19,486,410
617.91
803.28
1112.24
13346
4858
500
18704
9600
-9104
2,028
18
19,975,533
633.42
823.45
1140.16
13681
4980
500
19161
9600
-9561
2,029
19
20,481,686
649.47
844.31
1169.05
14031
5106
500
19637
9600
-10037
2,030
20
21,004,237
666.04
865.85
1198.87
14387
5237
500
20124
9600
-10524
Estudio de Factibilidad Mejoramiento y Ampliacin del Sistema

de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de la Ciudad de Jauja
Cuadro N 7
Caudal Promedio Desage ( Qpd lps ) por Area de

Area
Drenaje
Area
(Ha)
AD-01
107.29
7.88
7.97
8.43
9.07
9.73
10.43
11.12
11.24
11.37
11.50
AD-02 y
AD-03
394.17
20.61
20.72
18.87
18.98
19.08
19.18
19.31
19.48
19.59
19.70
AD-04
144.76
2.48
2.53
2.31
2.51
2.71
2.92
3.14
3.19
3.24
3.29
TOTAL
646.21
30.97
31.22
29.61
30.56
31.52
32.53
33.57
33.92
34.20
34.49
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N 7
dio Desage ( Qpd lps ) por Area de Drenaje

9
Consorcio V B
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
11.64
11.83
11.96
12.09
12.22
12.38
12.51
12.64
12.77
12.90
13.03
19.80
19.94
20.05
20.15
20.26
20.38
20.52
20.62
20.74
20.85
20.99
3.34
3.39
3.44
3.49
3.54
3.59
3.64
3.69
3.74
3.79
3.84
34.78
35.16
35.45
35.73
36.02
36.35
36.67
36.96
37.25
37.54
37.86
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N 5
Cuadro de Demanda de Volumen de Almacenamie

Sector
Sector 01
RP-01
Datos / Ao
TOTAL
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
10,928
11,079
11,230
11,381
11,532
11,683
11,835
11,986
Qp (lps)
16.50
16.83
17.03
15.83
16.38
16.95
17.56
18.15
18.74
Qmd (lps)
21.45
21.88
22.14
20.58
21.29
22.04
22.83
23.60
24.36
Qmh (lps)
33.00
33.66
34.06
31.66
32.76
33.90
35.12
36.30
37.48
406
414
418
392
404
416
429
442
455
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
18,192
18,299
18,406
18,513
18,621
18,730
18,840
18,950
19,061
Qp (lps)
43.37
43.54
43.78
32.91
33.09
33.28
33.46
33.69
33.98
Qmd (lps)
56.38
56.60
56.91
42.78
43.02
43.26
43.50
43.80
44.17
Qmh (lps)
86.74
87.08
87.56
65.82
66.18
66.56
66.92
67.38
67.96
987
990
996
761
765
769
773
778
784
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
3,122
3,180
3,239
3,297
3,355
3,413
3,472
3,530
3,588
Qp (lps)
5.28
5.38
5.46
4.37
4.55
4.74
4.93
5.12
5.31
Qmd (lps)
6.86
6.99
7.10
5.68
5.92
6.16
6.41
6.66
6.90
Qmh (lps)
10.56
10.76
10.92
8.74
9.10
9.48
9.86
10.24
10.62
164
166
168
144
148
152
156
161
165
Poblacin (hab)
Area (Ha)
Poblacin (hab)
Area (Ha)
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
Poblacin (hab)
32,090
32,407
32,724
33,040
33,357
33,675
33,995
34,315
34,635
58.03
01, 02, 03 y 04 Qp (lps)
65.15
65.75
66.27
53.11
54.02
54.97
55.95
56.96
Qmd (lps)
84.70
85.48
86.15
69.04
70.23
71.46
72.74
74.05
75.44
Qmh (lps)
130.30
131.50
132.54
106.22
108.04
109.94
111.90
113.92
116.06
Volumen (m3)
Consorcio V B
105.99
Volumen (m3)
SECTORES
10,776
Volumen (m3)
RE-02
Poblacin (hab)
Sector 02 y 03 Area (Ha)
Sector 04
Area (Ha)
Volumen (m3)
RE-01
Base
1557
1570
1582
1297
1317
1337
1358
1381
1404
Oferta (m3)
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Dficit / Supervit
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N 5
nda de Volumen de Almacenamiento por Sectores

8
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
105.99
12,137
12,288
12,439
12,591
12,742
12,893
13,044
13,195
13,346
13,498
13,649
13,800
19.34
19.96
20.38
20.71
20.94
21.17
21.40
21.67
21.91
22.13
22.36
22.59
25.14
25.95
26.49
26.92
27.22
27.52
27.82
28.17
28.48
28.77
29.07
29.37
38.68
39.92
40.76
41.42
41.88
42.34
42.80
43.34
43.82
44.26
44.72
45.18
468
481
490
497
502
507
512
518
523
528
533
538
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
478.48
19,172
19,284
19,397
19,510
19,624
19,739
19,854
19,971
20,087
20,205
20,323
20,442
34.16
34.36
34.54
34.78
34.96
35.16
35.35
35.55
35.78
35.97
36.17
36.37
44.41
44.67
44.90
45.21
45.45
45.71
45.96
46.22
46.51
46.76
47.02
47.28
68.32
68.72
69.08
69.56
69.92
70.32
70.70
71.10
71.56
71.94
72.34
72.74
788
792
796
801
805
809
814
818
823
827
831
836
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
150.19
3,646
3,705
3,763
3,821
3,879
3,938
3,996
4,054
4,112
4,171
4,229
4,287
5.51
5.72
5.86
5.96
6.04
6.13
6.22
6.30
6.39
6.48
6.57
6.66
7.16
7.44
7.62
7.75
7.85
7.97
8.09
8.19
8.31
8.42
8.54
8.66
11.02
11.44
11.72
11.92
12.08
12.26
12.44
12.60
12.78
12.96
13.14
13.32
169
174
177
179
180
182
184
186
188
190
192
194
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
734.66
34,955
35,277
35,599
35,922
36,245
36,570
36,894
37,220
37,545
37,874
38,201
38,529
59.01
60.04
60.78
61.45
61.94
62.46
62.97
63.52
64.08
64.58
65.10
65.62
76.71
78.05
79.01
79.89
80.52
81.20
81.86
82.58
83.30
83.95
84.63
85.31
118.02
120.08
121.56
122.90
123.88
124.92
125.94
127.04
128.16
129.16
130.20
131.24
1425
1447
1463
1477
1487
1498
1510
1522
1534
1545
1556
1568
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

INFORME FINAL
PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE

TOTAL
COBERTURA (%)
AO
POBLACION
CONEX.
OTROS
MEDIOS
(*)
CONEXIONES DE DESAGUE
POBLACION VIVIENDAS
SERVIDA
SERVIDAS
(hab)
(unidades)
CNX
DOME
CNX
COMER
CNX
IND
CNX
ESTAT
CNX
SOCIAL
TOTAL
CNX
CONSUMO
DOMESTICO
CONSUMO
COMERCIAL
CONSUMO
INDUSTRIAL
CONSUMO
ESTATAL
DEMANDA DESAGUE
CONSUMO
SOCIAL
CONSUMO
TOTAL
CONECTADO
Qp desague Qp desague
(lt/seg)
(lt/dia)
Qp desague
(m3/ao)
Qmh
desague
(lt/seg)
2,008
Base
147,119
10.4%
89.6%
15,369
3,423
3,423
3,423
2,183,874
2,183,874
20
1,747,099
637,691
36
2,009
159,403
10.2%
89.8%
16,203
3,609
3,609
3,609
2,302,542
2,302,542
21
1,842,034
672,342
38
2,010
172,714
9.7%
90.3%
16,725
3,725
3,725
3,725
2,376,550
2,376,550
22
1,901,240
693,953
40
2,011
187,135
100.00%
0.0%
187,135
41,677
41,677
41
40
40
40
41,838
26,589,926
71,600
159,547
266,000
84,000
27,171,072
251.58 21,736,858
7,933,953
452.85
2,012
202,761
100.0%
0.0%
202,761
45,160
45,160
41
40
41
40
45,322
28,812,080
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
29,693,226
274.94 23,754,581
8,670,422
494.89
2,013
207,648
100.0%
0.0%
207,648
46,247
46,247
41
40
41
40
46,409
29,505,586
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
30,386,732
281.36 24,309,386
8,872,926
506.45
2,014
212,669
100.0%
0.0%
212,669
47,365
47,365
41
40
41
40
47,527
30,218,870
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,100,016
287.96 24,880,013
9,081,205
518.33
2,015
217,829
100.0%
0.0%
217,829
48,515
48,515
41
40
41
40
48,677
30,952,570
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,833,716
294.76 25,466,973
9,295,445
530.56
2,016
223,131
100.0%
0.0%
223,131
49,696
49,696
49
48
49
48
49,890
31,706,048
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
32,703,074
302.81 26,162,459
9,549,298
545.05
2,017
228,583
100.0%
0.0%
228,583
50,910
50,910
49
48
49
48
51,104
32,480,580
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
33,477,606
309.98 26,782,085
9,775,461
557.96
2,018
234,190
100.0%
0.0%
234,190
52,158
52,158
49
48
49
48
52,352
33,276,804
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
34,273,830
317.35 27,419,064 10,007,958
571.23
2,019
239,957
100.0%
0.0%
239,957
53,442
53,442
49
48
49
48
53,636
34,095,996
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,093,022
324.94 28,074,418 10,247,163
584.88
2,020
10
245,892
100.0%
0.0%
245,892
54,763
54,763
49
48
49
48
54,957
34,938,794
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,935,820
332.74 28,748,656 10,493,260
598.93
2,021
11
252,001
100.0%
0.0%
252,001
56,125
56,125
49
48
49
48
56,319
35,807,750
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
36,804,776
340.78 29,443,821 10,746,995
613.41
2,022
12
258,290
100.0%
0.0%
258,290
57,526
57,526
49
48
49
48
57,720
36,701,588
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
37,698,614
349.06 30,158,891 11,007,995
628.31
2,023
13
264,769
100.0%
0.0%
264,769
58,970
58,970
49
48
49
48
59,164
37,622,860
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
38,619,886
357.59 30,895,909 11,277,007
643.66
2,024
14
271,445
100.0%
0.0%
271,445
60,454
60,454
49
48
49
48
60,648
38,569,652
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
39,566,678
366.36 31,653,343 11,553,470
659.44
2,025
15
278,326
100.0%
0.0%
278,326
61,987
61,987
57
56
57
56
62,213
39,547,706
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
40,660,612
376.49 32,528,490 11,872,899
677.68
2,026
16
285,422
100.0%
0.0%
285,422
63,568
63,568
57
56
57
56
63,794
40,556,384
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
41,669,290
385.83 33,335,432 12,167,433
694.49
2,027
17
292,742
100.0%
0.0%
292,742
65,199
65,199
57
56
57
56
65,425
41,596,962
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
42,709,868
395.46 34,167,895 12,471,282
711.83
2,028
18
300,297
100.0%
0.0%
300,297
66,880
66,880
57
56
57
56
67,106
42,669,440
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
43,782,346
405.39 35,025,877 12,784,445
729.71
2,029
19
308,098
100.0%
0.0%
308,098
68,618
68,618
57
56
57
56
68,844
43,778,284
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
44,891,190
415.66 35,912,952 13,108,228
748.19
2,030
20
316,157
100.0%
0.0%
316,157
(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a la utilizacin de letrinas, silos.
70,413
70,413
57
56
57
56
70,639
44,923,494
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
46,036,400
426.26 36,829,120 13,442,629
767.27

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMA

TOTAL
COBERTURA (%)
AO
POBLACION
CONEX.
OTROS
MEDIOS
(*)
CONEXIONES
VIVIENDAS
POBLACION
SERVIDAS
SERVIDA (hab)
(unidades)
CNX
DOME
CNX
COMER
CNX
CNX
ESTAT Y
SOCIAL
UNIV
CNX
IND
TOTAL
CNX
CONSUMO
DOMESTICO
CONSUMO
COMERCIAL
CONSUMO
INDUSTRIAL
DEMANDA DESAGUE
CONSUMO
ESTATAL y
UNIVERSIDAD
CONSUMO
SOCIAL
CONSUMO
TOTAL
CONECTADO
Qp desague Qp desague
(lt/seg)
(lt/dia)
Qp desague
(m3/ao)
2,008
Base
147,119
0.00%
100.00%
15,369
3,423
3,423
3,423
0.00
2,009
159,403
0.00%
100.00%
16,202
3,609
3,609
3,609
0.00
2,010
172,714
9.68%
90.32%
16,726
3,725
3,725
3,725
0.00
2,011
187,135
100.00%
0.00%
187,135
41,677
41,677
41
40
40
40
41,838
26,589,926
71,600
159,547
266,000
84,000
27,171,072
251.58
21,736,858
7,933,953
2,012
202,761
100.00%
0.00%
202,761
45,160
45,160
41
40
41
40
45,322
28,812,080
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
29,693,226
274.94
23,754,581
8,670,422
2,013
207,648
100.00%
0.00%
207,648
46,248
46,248
41
40
41
40
46,410
29,506,224
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
30,387,370
281.36
24,309,896
8,873,112
2,014
212,669
100.00%
0.00%
212,669
47,366
47,366
41
40
41
40
47,528
30,219,508
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,100,654
287.97
24,880,523
9,081,391
2,015
217,829
100.00%
0.00%
217,829
48,514
48,514
41
40
41
40
48,676
30,951,932
71,600
159,547
566,000
84,000
31,833,078
294.75
25,466,463
9,295,259
2,016
223,131
100.00%
0.00%
223,131
49,695
49,695
49
48
49
48
49,889
31,705,410
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
32,702,436
302.80
26,161,949
9,549,111
2,017
228,583
100.00%
0.00%
228,583
50,909
50,909
49
48
49
48
51,103
32,479,942
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
33,476,968
309.97
26,781,575
9,775,275
2,018
234,190
100.00%
0.00%
234,190
52,157
52,157
49
48
49
48
52,351
33,276,166
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
34,273,192
317.34
27,418,554
10,007,772
2,019
239,957
100.00%
0.00%
239,957
53,443
53,443
49
48
49
48
53,637
34,096,634
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,093,660
324.94
28,074,928
10,247,349
2,020
10
245,892
100.00%
0.00%
245,892
54,765
54,765
49
48
49
48
54,959
34,940,070
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
35,937,096
332.75
28,749,677
10,493,632
2,021
11
252,001
100.00%
0.00%
252,001
56,125
56,125
49
48
49
48
56,319
35,807,750
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
36,804,776
340.78
29,443,821
10,746,995
2,022
12
258,290
100.00%
0.00%
258,290
57,526
57,526
49
48
49
48
57,720
36,701,588
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
37,698,614
349.06
30,158,891
11,007,995
2,023
13
264,769
100.00%
0.00%
264,769
58,970
58,970
49
48
49
48
59,164
37,622,860
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
38,619,886
357.59
30,895,909
11,277,007
2,024
14
271,445
100.00%
0.00%
271,445
60,457
60,457
49
48
49
48
60,651
38,571,566
85,570
191,456
619,200
100,800
39,568,592
366.38
31,654,874
11,554,029
2,025
15
278,326
100.00%
0.00%
278,326
61,988
61,988
57
56
57
56
62,214
39,548,344
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
40,661,250
376.49
32,529,000
11,873,085
2,026
16
285,422
100.00%
0.00%
285,422
63,569
63,569
57
56
57
56
63,795
40,557,022
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
41,669,928
385.83
33,335,943
12,167,619
2,027
17
292,742
100.00%
0.00%
292,742
65,199
65,199
57
56
57
56
65,425
41,596,962
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
42,709,868
395.46
34,167,895
12,471,282
2,028
18
300,297
100.00%
0.00%
300,297
66,880
66,880
57
56
57
56
67,106
42,669,440
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
43,782,346
405.39
35,025,877
12,784,445
2,029
19
308,098
100.00%
0.00%
308,098
68,618
68,618
57
56
57
56
68,844
43,778,284
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
44,891,190
415.66
35,912,952
13,108,228
2,030
20
316,157
100.00%
0.00%
316,157
70,414
70,414
57
56
57
56
70,640
44,924,132
99,541
223,365
672,400
117,600
46,037,038
426.27
36,829,631
13,442,815
(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a la utilizacin de letrinas, silos.

E LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMA

TOTAL
Qmh
desague
(lt/seg)
0.00
0.00
0.00
452.85
494.89
506.46
518.34
530.55
545.04
557.95
571.22
584.89
598.95
613.41
628.31
643.66
659.48
677.69
694.50
711.83
729.71
748.19
767.28

Cuadro de Oferta Demanda de Agua Potable (Situacin Con Proyecto)

TOTAL
Demanda Total QP
(m3/ao)
2,008
Base
2,009
2,010
2,011
2,012
2,013
2,014
2,015
QMD
(lt/seg)
QMH
(lt/seg)
QB
(lt/seg)
Vol. Reg. (m3) Vol. Res. (m3)
Vol. Contra
Incen. (m3)
Vol. Total (m3)
Volumen
Oferta
(m3)
Volumen
Requerido
(m3)
996,538
32
-32
41
57
55
682
248
930
11630
10700
1,050,780
33
-33
43
60
58
719
262
981
11630
10649
1,084,523
34
-34
45
62
60
743
270
1,013
11630
10617
12,396,802
393
-393
511
708
681
8,490
3,091
500
12,081
11630
-451
13,547,866
430
-430
558
773
745
9,280
3,378
500
13,158
11630
-1528
13,863,856
440
-440
572
791
762
9,496
3,456
500
13,452
11630
-1822
14,189,939
450
-450
585
810
780
9,718
3,538
500
13,756
11630
-2126
14,523,905
461
-461
599
829
798
9,948
3,621
500
14,069
11630
-2439
2,016
14,920,628
473
-473
615
852
820
10,220
3,720
500
14,440
11630
-2810
2,017
15,273,516
484
-484
630
872
839
10,461
3,808
500
14,769
11630
-3139
2,018
15,637,441
496
-496
645
893
859
10,709
3,899
500
15,108
11630
-3478
2,019
16,012,089
508
-508
660
914
880
10,966
3,992
500
15,458
11630
-3828
2,020
10
16,396,197
520
-520
676
936
901
11,231
4,088
500
15,819
11630
-4189
2,021
11
16,792,289
532
-532
692
958
923
11,503
4,187
500
16,190
11630
-4560
2,022
12
17,199,734
545
-545
709
982
945
11,781
4,288
500
16,569
11630
-4939
2,023
13
17,620,425
559
-559
726
1,006
968
12,070
4,393
500
16,963
11630
-5333
2,024
14
18,052,783
572
-572
744
1,030
992
12,364
4,501
500
17,365
11630
-5735
2,025
15
18,551,998
588
-588
765
1,059
1,020
12,705
4,625
500
17,830
11630
-6200
2,026
16
19,012,108
603
-603
784
1,085
1,045
13,023
4,740
500
18,263
11630
-6633
2,027
17
19,486,410
618
-618
803
1,112
1,071
13,346
4,858
500
18,704
11630
-7074
2,028
18
19,975,533
633
-633
823
1,140
1,098
13,681
4,980
500
19,161
11630
-7531
2,029
19
20,481,686
649
-649
844
1,169
1,126
14,031
5,106
500
19,637
11630
-8007
21,004,237
666
( 00 lps Captacin Cero Santa Catalina )
-666
866
1,199
1,154
14,387
5,237
500
20,124
11630
-8494
2,030
20
lps
(lt/seg)
Volumen Demanda
Dficit /
Superhabit
(lt/seg.)
Oferta
(lt/seg.)
Ao

HOJA DE INGRESO DE DATOS

Registrar la informacin solicitada en los siguientes cuadros (celdas en amarillo):
a) Informacin base y parmetros
Localidad
TOTAL
POBLACIN ACTUAL (habitantes)

NUMERO DE VIVIENDAS
TASA CRECIMIENTO ANUAL DE POBLACION (%) (1)
DENSIDAD POR LOTE (hab/lote) (2)
PORCENTAJE DE PRDIDAS (3)
MICROMEDICIN DOMESTICO (%) (4)
MICROMEDICIN COMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL (%)
POBLACIN ACTUAL CON CONEXIONES AGUA (red pblica)
POBLACIN ACTUAL CON CONEXIONES DESAGUE (red pblica)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
Sin Proyecto
Con Proyecto
105,160
20,312
2.88/1.74
5.11/5.44
0%
0.00%
0.00%
0
0
0%
187,135
11,444
2.88/1.74
5.11/5.44
25%
100%
100%
( 1 al ao )
(Proyeccin INEI)
(Determinado por la Encuesta)
(Localidades Similares)
(Estimado)
b) Informacin de proyeccin de cobertura de los servicios

MICROMEDICION (%)
COBERTURA
AGUA (%)
AO
COBERTURA
DESAGUE (%)
0.0%
PRDIDAS DE
AGUA (%)
0.0%
DOMESTICO
0.00%
COMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
SOCIAL
ESTATAL
2007
Base
0.0%
2008
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.00%
0.0%
2009
9.7%
9.68%
25.0%
100.0%
100.00%
0.00%
2010
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2011
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2012
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2013
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2014
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2015
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2016
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2017
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2018
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2019
10
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2020
11
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2021
12
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2022
13
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2023
14
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2024
15
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2025
16
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2026
17
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2027
18
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2028
19
100%
100%
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%
2029
20
100%
100%
Notas:
Corresponden a valores proyectados por la UF
* Informacin actual (ao cero del proyecto)
25.0%
100.0%
100.0%

c) Informacin de conexiones existentes al ao 2007 por categorias (celdas en amarillo)

CONEXION POR
TIPO DE USUARIO
Domstico
Comercial
Industrial
Estatal
Social
TIPO DE
MEDICION
Con Medidor
Sin Medidor
Con Medidor
Sin Medidor
Con Medidor
Sin Medidor
Con Medidor
Sin Medidor
Con Medidor
Sin Medidor
AGUA POTABLE
No. De Conex.
TOTAL Conex.
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TOTAL
DATOS DE CONSUMO POR CONEXIN SEGN CATEGORIAS

(m3/mes/cnx)
DOMESTICO
CONSUMO UNITARIO C/MEDIDOR
CONSUMO UNITARIO S/MEDIDOR
COMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
ESTATAL
SOCIAL
CONSUMO DE LOS NO CONECTADOS
CONSUMO DE LOS NO CONECTADOS
19.140
18.760
20.30
22.53
16.15
17.93
21.91
24.32
21.91
24.32
e) Parmetros de Diseo (celdas en amarillo)

Caudal Promedio (Qp)
Caudal Mximo Diario (Qmd = K1 * QP)
K1 =
1.3
Caudal Mximo Horario (Qmh = K2 * QP)
K2 =
1.8
# Hb =
18
Caudal Promedio Desage (Qpd = K3 * Qp) K3 =
0.8
Caudal Desage (Qd = K3 * Qmh, Qd = K2 * Qpd)
0
0
d) Informacin de consumos percapita por conexion (celdas en amarillo)
Caudal Bombeo (Qb = Qmd * 24/ # Hb)
DESAGUE
TOTAL Conex.
0
0
0
0
0
0

Cuadro N 1
CUADRO PARA EL INGRESO DE INFORMACION BASE PARA REALIZAR LA EVALUACION ECONOMICA DE
SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE - ALTERNATIVA SOLUCION
Ingresar slo la informacin a) y b) en base a los resultados del Estudio de mercado contenido en el perfil del proyecto:
a) Datos de la situacin sin proyecto
Consumo de los no conectados al sistema
(m3/mes/vivi.)
6.72
Precio econmico del agua para los no

conectados al sistema (S/./m3)
9.93
N de familias actualmente conectadas al

sistema de agua potable
3,423
Consumo con racionamiento (c medidor) de los

conectados al sistema (m3/mes/vivi.)
0.00
Costos de operacin y mantenimiento de los

sistemas actuales de agua y alcantarillado
(S/./ao)
801,398
Tarifa marginal de la EPS (usuarios sujetos a

medicin) S/m3
1.182
Consumo de saturacin con tarifa marginal cero

(m3/mes/conex)
20.78
20.82
ERROR
1.42
b) Datos de la situacin con proyecto (donde no corresponda colocar cero)

Aos
Base
A
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Poblacin Total
159,403
172,714
187,135
202,761
207,648
212,669
217,829
223,131
228,583
234,190
239,957
245,892
252,001
258,290
264,769
271,445
278,326
285,422
292,742
300,297
308,098
316,157
Poblacin
Conectada (%)
0.0%
9.7%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
INGRESO MINIMO FAMILIAR

DISPOSICION A PAGAR LOS SERVICIOS
N de Familias conectadas al servicio

Total
Antiguas
Nuevas
3609
3725
41677
45160
46248
47366
48514
49695
50909
52157
53443
54765
56125
57526
58970
60457
61988
63569
65199
66880
68618
70414
3,423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
3423
186
302
38254
41737
42825
43943
45091
46272
47486
48734
50020
51342
52702
54103
55547
57034
58565
60146
61776
63457
65195
66991
775 Soles
5.00%
38.75 Soles
Inversin Total a
precios privados (S/.)
Consumo de
agua (m3/ao)
Produccin de
agua (m3/ao)
Costos de Operacin y
mantenimiento a
precios privados
0
0
73,415,672.5
233,600.0
975,280.0
1,643,960.0
144,540.0
2,683,480.0
2,749,180.0
2,324,320.0
309,520.0
3,128,780.0
1,848,360.0
563,560
2,153,500
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
840,428
867,441
9,917,441
10,838,028
11,091,390
11,351,739
11,619,074
11,936,389
12,219,093
12,509,715
12,809,186
13,117,040
13,433,743
13,759,994
14,096,259
14,442,536
14,841,356
15,209,524
15,589,102
15,980,556
16,385,284
16,803,519
1,050,780
1,084,523
12,396,802
13,547,866
13,863,856
14,189,939
14,523,905
14,920,628
15,273,516
15,637,441
16,012,089
16,396,197
16,792,289
17,199,734
17,620,425
18,052,783
18,551,998
19,012,108
19,486,410
19,975,533
20,481,686
21,004,237
0
595,549
6,807,515
7,439,604
7,613,125
7,792,188
7,975,581
8,193,435
8,387,218
8,587,062
8,792,794
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
##
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
###
PRODUC PROMEDIO (M3)
15,321,579.25
COSTO PROM.DE O&M C-P
7,782,954.94
COSTO (S/M3) DE AGUA PRODUC.
0.508

Cuadro N 2 no imprimir
CALCULO DE LA TARIFA PROMEDIO DE LARGO PLAZO

ALTERNATIVA 1
1
Aos
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Poblacin
Total
159,403
172,714
187,135
202,761
207,648
212,669
217,829
223,131
228,583
234,190
239,957
245,892
252,001
258,290
264,769
271,445
278,326
285,422
292,742
300,297
Produccin de
% de
agua (m3/ao) Prdidas
#REF!
1,050,780
1,084,523
12,396,802
13,547,866
13,863,856
14,189,939
14,523,905
14,920,628
15,273,516
15,637,441
16,012,089
16,396,197
16,792,289
17,199,734
17,620,425
18,052,783
18,551,998
19,012,108
19,486,410
19,975,533
0%
0%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
Consumo
(m3/ao)
Inversin
Total a
precios
privados
(S/.)
Costos de OM a
precios privados
Total Costos a
precios privados
#REF!
1,050,780
813,392
9,297,601
10,160,899
10,397,892
10,642,454
10,892,929
11,190,471
11,455,137
11,728,081
12,009,066
12,297,148
12,594,217
12,899,801
13,215,318
13,539,587
13,913,999
14,259,081
14,614,807
14,981,650
Factor de
Actualizacin
11%
5,537,052
1,409,985
413,530
419,588
421,820
394,084
165,485
170,681
176,550
182,083
134,101
1,206,106
187,841
152,311
77,708
78,074
78,074
46,760
47,279
47,279
0
5,537,052
263,066,648
273,195,157
2,352,081,659
2,566,635,504
2,628,163,885
2,691,366,263
2,756,299,688
2,832,621,826
2,901,064,701
2,979,628,067
3,048,202,925
3,118,753,117
3,191,275,508
3,265,874,531
3,342,763,174
3,421,781,696
3,513,080,576
3,597,264,056
3,684,109,885
3,773,618,063
264,476,633
273,608,687
2,352,501,247
2,567,057,324
2,628,557,969
2,691,531,748
2,756,470,369
2,832,798,376
2,901,246,784
2,979,762,168
3,049,409,031
3,118,940,958
3,191,427,818
3,265,952,239
3,342,841,247
3,421,859,770
3,513,127,336
3,597,311,335
3,684,157,164
3,773,618,063
11,346,390
56,200,846,927 VALOR ACTUAL
CIP (I+OM )
###
#REF!
'= S/
#REF! por M3
1.70
CIP ( OM )
###
#REF!
#REF! por M3
0.22
S/
1.000
0.901
0.812
0.731
0.659
0.593
0.535
0.482
0.434
0.391
0.352
0.317
0.286
0.258
0.232
0.209
0.188
0.170
0.153
0.138
0.124
ANALISIS DE LA CAPACIDAD DE PAGO Y REQUERIMIENTOS DE SUBSIDIOS
Soles por
M3
'Pago / conex./mes por

consumo de 19.14 m3
(Soles)**
Limite de
Esta dentro
Capacidad de
Pago (Soles)***
Capacidad
Pago ??
Costo Unitario de O & M
#REF!
#REF!
38.75
#REF!
Costo Unitario de Inv + O & M
#REF!
#REF!
38.75
#REF!
COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3
**
***
El consumo de 19.14 m3 corresponde al consumo/mes familia con micromedicin segn el estudio de demanda del caso
Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ 775 x 0.05 = S/ 38.75
****
Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ m3
Consorcio V B
2.00
Febrero - 2007

DE LA TARIFA PROMEDIO DE LARGO PLAZO

ALTERNATIVA 1
10
11
Valor Privados
Actual
Precios
Costos de
Inversin OM
Precios Privados
(Soles)
12
Consumos
(Soles)
5,537,052
#REF!
238,267,237
222,066,949
1,720,128,636
1,691,000,171
1,559,921,218
1,439,002,784
1,327,677,137
1,229,226,274
1,134,169,236
1,049,425,986
967,526,604
891,520,652
821,838,159
757,684,017
698,668,351
644,309,519
595,940,982
549,748,949
507,226,052
468,056,592
236,996,980
221,731,318
1,719,821,837
1,690,722,306
1,559,687,348
1,438,914,309
1,327,594,928
1,229,149,664
1,134,098,055
1,049,378,758
967,143,927
891,466,960
821,798,936
757,665,989
698,652,033
644,294,818
595,933,050
549,741,724
507,219,543
468,056,592
946,648
660,167
6,798,326
6,693,299
6,170,643
5,689,890
5,246,671
4,855,842
4,478,097
4,130,448
3,810,276
3,515,027
3,243,190
2,992,687
2,762,059
2,549,399
2,360,268
2,179,104
2,012,132
1,858,233
18,518,942,557
18,510,069,075
#REF!
Subsidio
(S/mes)
por conexin
#REF!
#REF!
medicin segn el estudio de demanda del caso
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N 3
ALTERNATIVA SOLUCION
I + II ETAPA
I. Curva de la Demanda y Beneficios Econmicos para NUEVOS USUARIOS
1. Estimacin de la curva de demanda de agua
nuevos usuarios
Variable cantidad
cantidad (S/.) Precio (S/./m3)
Variable precio
14.67
Precio mximo al cual no se

demandaria agua potable
Consumo de los no conectados

al sistema (m3/mes/vivi.)
6.72
9.93
Precio econmico del agua

para los no conectados al
sistema (S/./m3)
Consumo segn tarifa de EPS o

propuesta (m3/mes/vivi.)
19.11
1.182
Tarifa de la EPS o propuesta
Consumo de saturacin con

tarifa
marginal
cero
(m3/mes/vivi.)
20.78
0.0
curva:
Q = 20.78 -1.42
CURVA DE DEMANDA Y BENEFICIOS ECONOMICOS PARA NUEVOS USUARIOS
16.00
Recursos
liberados
14.67
14.00
P (S/./m3)
12.00
10.00
9.93
Area de beneficios
8.00
6.00
4.00
2.00
1.18
0.00
0.00
0
6.010
15
20
25
Q (m3/usuario/mes)
2. Estimacin de los beneficios de nuevos usuarios
2.1 Usuarios sujetos a micromedicin
a. Beneficios por recursos liberados
b. Beneficios por incremento del consumo de agua
c. Beneficios brutos totales
66.69
68.84
135.53
(S/. / fam/mes)
(S/. / fam/mes)
(S/. / fam/mes)

COSTOS O Y M AGUA - SIN PROYECTO
COSTOS O Y M AGUA - CON PROYECTO

COSTOS INCREMENTALES-AGUA
Demanda de Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios

Ao Agua Potable
de O y M
Privados (1)
de O y M
Sociales(2)
(m3/ao)
(S/.)
(S/.)
(Privado)
(Sociales)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1,084,523
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
12,396,802
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
13,547,866
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
13,863,856
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
14,189,939
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
14,523,905
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
14,920,628
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
15,273,516
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
15,637,441
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
16,012,089
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
16,396,197
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
16,792,289
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
17,199,734
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
17,620,425
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
18,052,783
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
18,551,998
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
19,012,108
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
19,486,410
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
19,975,533
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
20,481,686
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
21,004,237
0.549
577,020
0.467
490,661
* Para el Clculo de los costos Privados y Sociales se mantiene constante la Demanda de ao "A"
Ao
Demanda de
Agua Potable
(m3/ao)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1,084,523
12,396,802
13,547,866
13,863,856
14,189,939
14,523,905
14,920,628
15,273,516
15,637,441
16,012,089
16,396,197
16,792,289
17,199,734
17,620,425
18,052,783
18,551,998
19,012,108
19,486,410
19,975,533
20,481,686
21,004,237
COSTOS O Y M ALCANT - SIN PROYECTO
Demanda de Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios

Ao Agua Potable
Privados (1)
Sociales(2)
de O y M
de O y M
(m3/ao)
(Privado)
(S/.)
(Sociales)
(S/.)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1,249,115
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
14,281,116
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
15,606,760
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
15,971,267
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
16,346,169
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
16,731,801
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
17,188,736
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
17,595,830
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
18,014,325
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
18,444,893
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
18,887,867
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
19,344,590
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
19,814,392
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
20,298,612
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
20,796,246
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
21,371,218
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
21,901,379
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
22,448,307
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
23,012,001
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
23,594,810
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
24,196,732
0.185
224,378
0.159
192,168
* Para el Clculo de los costos Privados y Sociales se mantiene constante la Demanda de ao "A"
Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios

Costos
Costos a Precios
de O y M
Privados (1)
Unitarios de O Sociales(2)
(S/.)
(S/.)
(Privado)
y M (Sociales)
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
0.549
595,549
6,807,515
7,439,604
7,613,125
7,792,188
7,975,581
8,193,435
8,387,218
8,587,062
8,792,794
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
9,003,722
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
0.467
506,417
5,788,678
6,326,166
6,473,718
6,625,982
6,781,927
6,967,177
7,131,957
7,301,892
7,476,834
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
7,656,193
COSTOS O Y M ALCANT - CON PROYECTO
Ao
Demanda de
Agua Potable
(m3/ao)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
1,249,115
14,281,116
15,606,760
15,971,267
16,346,169
16,731,801
17,188,736
17,595,830
18,014,325
18,444,893
18,887,867
19,344,590
19,814,392
20,298,612
20,796,246
21,371,218
21,901,379
22,448,307
23,012,001
23,594,810
24,196,732
231,590
2,647,769
2,893,548
2,961,128
3,030,637
3,102,134
3,186,851
3,262,328
3,339,919
3,419,747
3,501,876
3,586,554
3,673,657
3,763,433
3,855,696
3,962,298
4,060,592
4,161,994
4,266,505
4,374,560
4,486,158
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0.159
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
18,530
6,230,495
6,862,584
7,036,106
7,215,169
7,398,561
7,616,416
7,810,199
8,010,043
8,215,775
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
15,757
5,298,017
5,835,506
5,983,057
6,135,321
6,291,266
6,476,516
6,641,297
6,811,231
6,986,173
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
7,165,532
COSTOS INCREMENTALES-ALC
Costos Unitarios Costos a Precios

Costos
Costos a Precios
Privados (1)
de O y M
Unitarios de O Sociales(2)
(Privado)
(S/.)
y M (Sociales)
(S/.)
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
0.185
Costos a Precios Costos a Precios

Ao Privados (1)
Sociales(2)
(S/.)
(S/.)
198,345
2,267,677
2,478,174
2,536,053
2,595,583
2,656,817
2,729,373
2,794,015
2,860,467
2,928,836
2,999,176
3,071,698
3,146,297
3,223,186
3,302,204
3,393,503
3,477,687
3,564,532
3,654,041
3,746,584
3,842,162
Costos a Precios Costos a Precios

Ao Privados (1)
Sociales(2)
(S/.)
(S/.)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
7,212
2,423,390
2,669,169
2,736,750
2,806,258
2,877,756
2,962,473
3,037,950
3,115,540
3,195,369
3,277,498
3,362,176
3,449,279
3,539,055
3,631,318
3,737,920
3,836,214
3,937,616
4,042,127
4,150,182
4,261,780
6,177
2,075,508
2,286,005
2,343,885
2,403,415
2,464,649
2,537,205
2,601,847
2,668,299
2,736,668
2,807,007
2,879,530
2,954,129
3,031,017
3,110,036
3,201,335
3,285,518
3,372,364
3,461,872
3,554,415
3,649,994

Cuadro N 2

1
Aos Poblacin Total
Produccin de
agua (m3/ao)
% de
Prdidas
Consumo
(m3/ao)
Inversin
Costos de OM a
Total a precios
precios privados
privados (S/.)
Total Costos a
precios privados
9
Factor de
Actualizacin
10
9%
Costos de Inversin
OM Precios
Privados (Soles)
12
Consumos
(m3/ao)
25%
152,829,102
827,139
153,656,241
1.000
153,656,241
827,139
187,135
12,396,802
25%
9,297,601
456,000
9,455,283
9,911,283
0.917
9,092,920
8,674,572
8,529,909
202,761
13,547,866
25%
10,160,899
1,903,800
10,333,151
12,236,951
0.842
10,299,597
8,697,207
8,552,226
207,648
13,863,856
25%
10,397,892
3,209,100
10,574,254
13,783,354
0.772
10,643,278
8,165,264
8,029,081
212,669
14,189,939
25%
10,642,454
282,150
10,822,825
11,104,975
0.708
7,867,044
7,667,162
7,539,383
217,829
14,523,905
25%
10,892,929
5,238,300
11,077,715
16,316,015
0.650
10,604,290
7,199,755
7,079,656
223,131
14,920,628
25%
11,190,471
5,366,550
11,380,287
16,746,837
0.596
9,985,591
6,785,693
6,672,512
228,583
15,273,516
25%
11,455,137
4,537,200
11,649,546
16,186,746
0.547
8,854,705
6,372,701
6,266,352
234,190
15,637,441
25%
11,728,081
604,200
11,926,981
12,531,181
0.502
6,288,977
5,985,749
5,885,928
239,957
16,012,089
25%
12,009,066
6,107,550
12,212,542
18,320,092
0.460
8,435,079
5,622,993
5,529,308
10
245,892
16,396,197
25%
12,297,148
3,608,100
12,505,598
16,113,698
0.422
6,806,600
5,282,500
5,194,448
11
252,001
16,792,289
25%
12,594,217
536,540
12,590,276
13,126,816
0.388
5,087,072
4,879,146
4,880,673
12
258,290
17,199,734
25%
12,899,801
2,050,250
12,677,379
14,727,629
0.356
5,236,183
4,507,248
4,586,327
13
264,769
25%
13,215,318
462,870
12,767,155
13,230,025
0.326
4,315,352
4,164,373
4,310,555
14
271,445
18,052,783
25%
13,539,587
1,135,630
12,859,418
13,995,048
0.299
4,187,969
3,848,135
4,051,674
15
278,326
18,551,998
25%
13,913,999
979,950
12,966,020
13,945,970
0.275
3,828,699
3,559,666
3,819,922
16
285,422
19,012,108
25%
14,259,081
1,327,450
13,064,314
14,391,764
0.252
3,624,850
3,290,506
3,591,431
17
292,742
19,486,410
25%
14,614,807
2,018,280
13,165,716
15,183,996
0.231
3,508,614
3,042,244
3,377,090
18
300,297
19,975,533
25%
14,981,650
593,530
13,270,227
13,863,757
0.212
2,939,030
2,813,205
3,176,016
19
308,098
20,481,686
25%
15,361,264
614,380
13,378,281
13,992,661
0.194
2,721,428
2,601,938
2,987,607
20
316,157
21,004,237
25%
15,753,178
626,890
13,489,880
14,116,770
0.178
2,518,868
2,407,011
2,810,854
194,487,822
242,993,986
280,502,389
106,394,207
106,870,951
17,620,425
CIP (I+ OM )
280,502,389
106,870,951
'=
S/
2.62 por M3
CIP ( OM )
106,394,207
106,870,951
S/
1.00 por M3
VALOR ACTUAL

ALTERNATIVA 1
COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3
Limite de
Soles por
consumo de
19.14 Capacidad de
M3
m3 (Soles)**
Pago (Soles)***
Esta dentro
Subsidio
Capacidad
Pago ??
(S/mes)
por conexin
1.00
19.05
38.75
SI
0.00
2.62
50.24
38.75
NO
11.49
**
*** Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ 775 x 0.05 = S/ 38.75

**** Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ m3
2.025
11
Valor Actual
Precios Privados

EVALUACION ECONOMICA DE SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE

1
Aos
2
Poblacin
Total
3
Poblacin
Conectada
(%)
4a
4b
4c
N Familias Conectadas al Servicio
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
5a
5b
5c
Beneficios Brutos (S/.ao)
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
Produccin
de agua
(m3/ao)
Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales
Flujo neto a
precios sociales
61,142,318.3
-61,142,318
1.000
-61,142,318
61,981,154
Inversin Total
a precios
sociales (S/.)
10
11
Factor de
descuento
Valor actual del

flujo neto a
precios sociales
11%
187135
100.0%
3,423
38254
41677
6,221,612 62,216,777
68,438,388
226,740
12,396,802
6,230,495
0.901
55,838,877
202761
100.0%
3,423
41737
45160
6,221,612 67,881,571
74,103,182
946,638
13,547,866
6,862,584
66,293,960
0.812
53,805,665
207648
100.0%
3,423
42825
46248
6,221,612 69,651,107
75,872,719
1,595,681
13,863,856
7,036,106
67,240,932
0.731
49,165,990
212669
100.0%
3,423
43943
47366
6,221,612 71,469,436
77,691,048
140,295
14,189,939
7,215,169
70,335,584
0.659
46,332,228
14,523,905
7,398,561
69,554,935
0.593
41,277,469
71,194,103
217829
100.0%
3,423
45091
48514
6,221,612 73,336,558
79,558,169
2,604,673
223131
100.0%
3,423
46272
49695
6,221,612 75,257,350
81,478,962
2,668,443
14,920,628
7,616,416
0.535
38,063,275
228583
100.0%
3,423
47486
50909
6,221,612 77,231,815
83,453,427
2,256,060
15,273,516
7,810,199
73,387,168
0.482
35,347,547
234190
100.0%
3,423
48734
52157
6,221,612 79,261,578
85,483,189
300,430
15,637,441
8,010,043
77,172,716
0.434
33,487,286
16,012,089
8,215,775
76,322,085
0.391
29,836,194
79,504,092
239957
100.0%
3,423
50020
53443
6,221,612 81,353,144
87,574,755
3,036,895
10
245892
100.0%
3,423
51342
54765
6,221,612 83,503,261
89,724,873
1,794,078
16,396,197
8,426,702
0.352
28,000,107
11
252001
100.0%
3,423
52702
56125
6,221,612 85,715,182
91,936,793
547,010
16,792,289
8,426,702
82,963,082
0.317
26,322,802
12
258290
100.0%
3,423
54103
57526
6,221,612 87,993,785
94,215,397
2,090,257
17,199,734
8,426,702
83,698,438
0.286
23,924,430
17,620,425
8,426,702
88,137,234
0.258
22,696,594
90,555,709
0.232
21,008,456
0.209
0.188
19,446,966
18,003,955
0.170
0.153
16,669,485
15,435,369
0.138
0.124
14,294,912
13,240,607
13
264769
100.0%
3,423
55547
58970
6,221,612 90,342,325
96,563,936
14
271445
100.0%
3,423
57034
60457
6,221,612 92,760,800
98,982,411
18,052,783
8,426,702
15
16
278326
285422
100.0%
100.0%
3,423
3,423
58565
60146
61988
63569
6,221,612 95,250,837
6,221,612 97,822,195
101,472,449
104,043,807
0
0
18,551,998
19,012,108
8,426,702
93,045,747
17
18
292742
300297
100.0%
100.0%
3,423
3,423
61776
63457
65199
66880
6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859

6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858
0
0
19,486,410
19,975,533
8,426,702
8,426,702
95,617,105
98,268,157
19
20
308098
316157
100.0%
100.0%
3,423
3,423
65195
66991
68618
70414
6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562

6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599
0
0
20,481,686
21,004,237
8,426,702
8,426,702
101,002,156
103,828,860
8,426,702
106,749,897
Proyecto Rentable en Trminos Sociales
VAN SOCIAL
541,055,895
TIR SOCIAL
105.84%
Estudio de Factibilidad del Proyecto de Mejoramiento y Ampliacin

de los Sistemas de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado de la Ciudad de Junn
INFORME FINAL
Cuadro N 7
ANALISIS DE RIESGO - EVALUACION FINANCIERA

ALTERNATIVA 1
1
Aos
Poblacin
Total
Produccin
Porcentaje
de agua
de Prdidas
3
(m /ao)
Volumen
Facturado
(m3/ao)
Tarifa
1.41
(S/. m3)
7
Beneficios
Financieros
8
Inversin
Total a
precios
privados
(S/.)
0
1
2
3
159,403 1,050,780
172,714 1,084,523
187,135 12,396,802
0%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.41
1.41
1.41
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
4,795,729
1,004,354
767,875
683,623
4
5
6
7
8
202,761
207,648
212,669
217,829
223,131
13,547,866
13,863,856
14,189,939
14,523,905
14,920,628
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
364,575
370,445
214,539
221,704
228,924
9
10
11
228,583 15,273,516
234,190 15,637,441
239,957 16,012,089
25%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.41
1.41
1.41
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
200,309
174,360
907,453
12
13
14
15
16
245,892
252,001
258,290
264,769
271,445
16,396,197
16,792,289
17,199,734
17,620,425
18,052,783
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
163,538
164,058
97,508
98,294
98,294
17
18
19
20
278,326
285,422
292,742
300,297
18,551,998
19,012,108
19,486,410
19,975,533
25%
25%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.41
1.41
1.41
1.41
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
46,760
47,279
0
0
9
10
11
Costos de
Operacin y
Total Costos a
Beneficio
mantenimiento
precios privados Financiero Neto
a precios
privados
4,795,729
-4,795,729
263,066,648
273,195,157
2,352,081,659
2,566,635,504
2,628,163,885
264,071,002
273,963,032
2,352,765,282
2,567,000,079
2,628,534,330
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2,691,366,263
2,756,299,688
2,832,621,826
2,901,064,701
2,979,628,067
3,048,202,925
3,118,753,117
3,191,275,508
2,691,580,803
2,756,521,392
2,832,850,750
2,901,265,011
2,979,802,427
3,049,110,378
3,118,916,655
3,191,439,566
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
3,265,874,531
3,342,763,174
3,421,781,696
3,513,080,576
3,597,264,056
3,265,972,038
3,342,861,468
3,421,879,990
3,513,127,336
3,597,311,335
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
3,684,109,885
3,773,618,063
3,684,109,885
3,773,618,063
#REF!
#REF!
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
Consorcio Tres C
#REF!
#REF!

Cuadro N 6A
Cuadro N 6
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE
Alternativa 1: Anlisis de Sensibilidad en las Variables

Principales
1
4a
4b
4c
5a

Aos
Poblacin
Total
Poblacin
Conectada
(%)
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
5b
5c
10
11
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
Inversin Total a
Produccin de
precios sociales
agua (m3/ao)
(S/.)
Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales
Flujo neto a precios

sociales
Factor de
descuento
Valor actual del

flujo neto a
precios sociales
VAN (s)
TIR (s)
541,055,895
105.84%
ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD
Escen. 1.-Incremento de Costos de Inversin
11%
0
-61,142,318
1.000
-61,142,318
Incremento
VAN (s)
TIR (s)
226,740
12,396,802
6,230,495
61,981,154
0.901
55,838,877
0.00%
541,055,895
Err:504
74,103,182
946,638
13,547,866
6,862,584
66,293,960
0.812
53,805,665
128.5%
450,879,912
Err:504
75,872,719
1,595,681
13,863,856
7,036,106
67,240,932
0.731
49,165,990
257.1%
360,703,930
Err:504
71,469,436
77,691,048
140,295
14,189,939
7,215,169
70,335,584
0.659
46,332,228
385.6%
270,527,947
Err:504
6,221,612
73,336,558
79,558,169
2,604,673
14,523,905
7,398,561
69,554,935
0.593
41,277,469
514.2%
180,351,965
Err:504
49695
6,221,612
75,257,350
81,478,962
2,668,443
14,920,628
7,616,416
71,194,103
0.535
38,063,275
642.7%
90,175,982
Err:504
47486
50909
6,221,612
77,231,815
83,453,427
2,256,060
15,273,516
7,810,199
73,387,168
0.482
35,347,547
771.25%
11.0%
3,423
48734
52157
6,221,612
79,261,578
85,483,189
300,430
15,637,441
8,010,043
77,172,716
0.434
33,487,286
100.0%
3,423
50020
53443
6,221,612
81,353,144
87,574,755
3,036,895
16,012,089
8,215,775
76,322,085
0.391
29,836,194
Disminucin
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
245892
100.0%
3,423
51342
54765
6,221,612
83,503,261
89,724,873
1,794,078
16,396,197
8,426,702
79,504,092
0.352
28,000,107
0.00%
541,055,895
Err:504
61,142,318
187135
100.0%
3423
38254
41677
6,221,612
62,216,777
68,438,388
202761
100.0%
3,423
41737
45160
6,221,612
67,881,571
207648
100.0%
3,423
42825
46248
6,221,612
69,651,107
212669
100.0%
3,423
43943
47366
6,221,612
217829
100.0%
3,423
45091
48514
223131
100.0%
3,423
46272
228583
100.0%
3,423
234190
100.0%
239957
10
Escen. 2.- Disminucin de Beneficios
11
252001
100.0%
3,423
52702
56125
6,221,612
85,715,182
91,936,793
547,010
16,792,289
8,426,702
82,963,082
0.317
26,322,802
26.9%
360,703,930
Err:504
12
258290
100.0%
3,423
54103
57526
6,221,612
87,993,785
94,215,397
2,090,257
17,199,734
8,426,702
83,698,438
0.286
23,924,430
53.7%
180,351,965
Err:504
13
264769
100.0%
3,423
55547
58970
6,221,612
90,342,325
96,563,936
17,620,425
8,426,702
88,137,234
0.258
22,696,594
80.56%
11.0%
14
271445
100.0%
3,423
57034
60457
6,221,612
92,760,800
98,982,411
18,052,783
8,426,702
90,555,709
0.232
21,008,456
15
278326
100.0%
3,423
58565
61988
6,221,612
95,250,837
101,472,449
18,551,998
8,426,702
93,045,747
0.209
19,446,965
Incremento
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
16
285422
100.0%
3,423
60146
63569
6,221,612
97,822,195
104,043,807
19,012,108
8,426,702
95,617,105
0.188
18,003,955
0.00%
541,055,895
Err:504
17
292742
100.0%
3,423
61776
65199
6,221,612
100,473,247
106,694,859
19,486,410
8,426,702
98,268,157
0.170
16,669,485
127.9%
463,762,196
Err:504
18
300297
100.0%
3,423
63457
66880
6,221,612
103,207,246
109,428,858
19,975,533
8,426,702
101,002,156
0.153
15,435,369
255.8%
386,468,496
Err:504
19
308098
100.0%
3,423
65195
68618
6,221,612
106,033,951
112,255,562
20,481,686
8,426,702
103,828,860
0.138
14,294,912
383.7%
309,174,797
Err:504
20
316157
100.0%
3,423
66991
70414
6,221,612
108,954,987
115,176,599
21,004,237
8,426,702
106,749,897
0.124
13,240,607
511.6%
231,881,098
Err:504
671,647,588
70,153,568.7
639.4%
154,587,399
#VALUE!
767.3%
77,293,699
#VALUE!
60,438,124

8.95222840
7.71245006
541055895
VAN SOCIAL
541,055,895
TIR SOCIAL
105.84%
MAX INCR DE INVERSION
0.8055651572 MAX REDUCCION DE BENEFICIOS
541,055,895
Escen. 3.- Incremento Costos de Oper. y Mant.
895.22%
0
FUENTE: Elaboracin del Consultor
541,055,895
VAN (f)
11.0%
105.84%
TIR (f)

FLUJO DE CAJA PROYECTADO - EVALUACION FINANCIERA
ALTERNATIVA 1
MUNICIPIO: SERVICIO DE AGUA POTABLE Y ALCANTARILLADO **
RUBROS
I INGRESOS DE OPERACION
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Volumen Consumido (m3/ao)
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
Tarifa /S/ m3)
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.18
1.18
% Morosidad
55%
49%
43%
37%
25%
24%
23%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
263,066,648
273,195,157
2,352,081,659
2,566,635,504
2,628,163,885
2,691,366,263
2,756,299,688
263,066,648
273,195,157
2,352,081,659
2,566,635,504
2,628,163,885
2,691,366,263
2,756,299,688
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
5,537,052
1,963,610
967,155
973,213
975,444
947,709
719,109
724,305
5,537,052
1,409,985
413,530
419,588
421,820
394,084
165,485
170,681
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
Ingresos por Tarifas

Otros
II EGRESOS DE OPERACION
Costos de O y M situacin con proyecto
III SALDO OPERATIVO

IV GASTOS DE CAPITAL
Presupuesto de inversiones
Reposicin activos existentes***
V INGRESOS DE CAPITAL
4,983,347
1,268,987
413,530
419,588
421,820
394,084
165,485
170,681
Fondos Electroandes y otros
4,983,347
1,268,987
413,530
419,588
421,820
394,084
165,485
170,681
-553,705
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
0 SALDO****
Nota: Si no existe una Unidad de gestin independiente para los servicios de agua y alcantarillado se requiere efectuar una estimacin de las cifras para este
Flujo de caja proyectado, Tasa VAN (9 %)
**
Este formato ser utilizado tambin para el flujo de caja de cada uno de los proyectos cuya operacin
y mantenimeinto estar a cargo de la EPS, una vez ejecutada las inversiones..
*** Fondo para reponer los activos existentes
**** Aportes de la Municipalidad
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

CAJA PROYECTADO - EVALUACION FINANCIERA

ALTERNATIVA 1
10
11
12
13
14
15
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
1.18
22%
21%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
20%
16%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2,832,621,826
2,901,064,701
2,979,628,067
3,048,202,925
3,118,753,117
3,191,275,508
3,265,874,531
3,342,763,174
3,421,781,696
2,832,621,826
2,901,064,701
2,979,628,067
3,048,202,925
3,118,753,117
3,191,275,508
3,265,874,531
3,342,763,174
3,421,781,696
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
730,175
735,707
687,726
1,759,730
741,465
705,935
631,333
631,698
631,698
176,550
182,083
134,101
1,206,106
187,841
152,311
77,708
78,074
78,074
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
553,625
176,550
182,083
134,101
1,206,106
187,841
152,311
77,708
78,074
78,074
176,550
182,083
134,101
1,206,106
187,841
152,311
77,708
78,074
78,074
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
VANP
TIR
Consorcio V B
16
#REF!
#REF!
Febrero - 2007

INFORME FINAL
Cuadro N 14
ANALISIS DE RIESGO - EVALUACION FINANCIERA

ALTERNATIVA 2
1
Aos
Poblacin
Total
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Produccin
Porcentaje
de agua
de Prdidas
(m3/ao)
Volumen
Facturado
(m3/ao)
Tarifa
1.46
(S/. m3)
5
Beneficios
Financieros
6
Inversin
Total a
precios
privados
(S/.)
7
8
9
Costos de
Operacin y
Total Costos a
Beneficio
mantenimiento
precios privados Financiero Neto
a precios
privados
9,595,048
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
0%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
25%
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
1.46
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
2,611,478
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
9,595,048
-9,595,048
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#VALUE!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
Consorcio Tres C
#REF!
#REF!

INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO REDES

(A PRECIOS SOCIALES)
Aos
Inversin en Redes y
Conexiones
(miles de S/.)
INVERSION TOTAL
Costos
Incrementales
Operacin y
Mantenimiento
(miles de S/.)
TOTAL COSTOS
( S/.)
Poblacin
Beneficiada
Incrementada
Poblacin Beneficiada
TOTAL
Base
A
0
65,207,001.95
16,725
6,176.7
65,213,178.6
212,908.68
2,075,508.2
2,288,416.8
170,410
187,135
888,893.73
2,286,005.2
3,174,898.9
15,626
202,761
1,498,344.82
2,343,884.6
3,842,229.5
4,887
207,648
131,737.24
2,403,414.8
2,535,152.0
5,021
212,669
2,445,788.44
2,464,648.8
4,910,437.2
5,159
217,829
2,505,669.01
2,537,204.7
5,042,873.7
5,303
223,131
2,118,441.35
2,601,846.6
4,720,287.9
5,452
228,583
282,104.00
2,668,298.8
2,950,402.8
5,607
234,190
2,851,645.61
2,736,667.9
5,588,313.5
5,767
239,957
10
1,684,639.92
2,807,007.2
4,491,647.1
5,935
245,892
11
513,642.19
2,879,529.6
3,393,171.8
6,109
252,001
12
1,962,751.88
2,954,128.6
4,916,880.5
6,290
258,290
13
443,116.19
3,031,017.3
3,474,133.4
6,479
264,769
14
1,087,164.94
3,110,035.8
4,197,200.7
6,676
271,445
15
938,128.86
3,201,334.7
4,139,463.5
6,881
278,326
16
1,270,798.67
3,285,518.1
4,556,316.8
7,096
285,422
17
1,932,146.26
3,372,364.0
5,304,510.2
7,320
292,742
18
568,200.04
3,461,872.1
4,030,072.2
7,555
300,297
19
588,160.22
3,554,415.4
4,142,575.6
7,801
308,098
20
600,136.34
88,543,124
3,649,993.7
4,250,130.1
8,058
316,157
S./poblador beneficiado
VAC SOCIAL =
PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA =
ICE =
95,948,275
251,646
381.3

INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO REDES

Alternativa Seleccionada: Anlisis de Sensibilidad en las

Variables Principales
(A PRECIOS PRIVADOS)
Aos
Inversin en Redes y
Conexiones ( S/.)
INVERSION TOTAL
Operacin Y
Mantenimiento
( S/.)
TOTAL COSTOS
( S/.)
79,413,429
79,413,429.4
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
222,400
928,520
1,565,140
137,610
2,554,820
2,617,370
2,212,880
294,680
2,978,770
1,759,740
536,540
2,050,250
462,870
1,135,630
979,950
1,327,450
2,018,280
593,530
614,380
626,890
222,400.0
928,520.0
1,565,140.0
137,610.0
2,554,820.0
2,617,370.0
2,212,880.0
294,680.0
2,978,770.0
1,759,740.0
536,540.0
2,050,250.0
462,870.0
1,135,630.0
979,950.0
1,327,450.0
2,018,280.0
593,530.0
614,380.0
626,890.0
COSTOS REFERENCIALES (ANEXO SNIP 8)
Ampliacin redes y conexiones de alcantarillado: US $ 282
Poblacin
Beneficiada
Incrementada
Poblacin
Beneficiada
TOTAL
170,410
15,626
4,887
5,021
5,159
5,303
5,452
5,607
5,767
5,935
6,109
6,290
6,479
6,676
6,881
7,096
7,320
7,555
7,801
8,058
187,135
202,761
207,648
212,669
217,829
223,131
228,583
234,190
239,957
245,892
252,001
258,290
264,769
271,445
278,326
285,422
292,742
300,297
308,098
316,157
Incremento en Costos de Inversin
16,725
VAC PRIVADO =
89,685,037
PROM.POBL. BENEFICIADA =
ICE =
251,646
888.30
104,404,239
VAC =
89,685,037
251,646
ICE =
356.39
ALCANTARILLADO ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD
356.39
Incremento
VAC
POBL. BENEF.
ICE
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
124%
149.25%
89,685,037
111,994,332
134,303,627
156,612,922
178,922,217
201,231,512
223,540,807
251,646
251,646
251,646
251,646
251,646
251,646
251,646
356.39
445.0
533.7
622.4
711.0
799.7
888.3
89,685,037
251,646
356.4
VAC
POBL. BENEF.
ICE
vac privado
0%
Page 27
10%
0.1
Page 28
20%
0.2
Page 29

Cuadro N 2

ALTERNATIVA 2
1
Produccin de
Aos Poblacin Total
agua (m3/ao)
% de
Prdidas
Consumo
(m3/ao)
Inversin
Costos de OM a
Total a precios
precios privados
privados (S/.)
19,292,885
827,139
Total Costos a
precios privados
9
Factor de
Actualizacin
10
9%
Costos de Inversin
OM Precios
Privados (Soles)
12
Consumos
(Soles)
25%
20,120,025
1.000
20,120,025
827,139
187,135
12,396,802
25%
9,297,601
456,000
9,455,283
9,911,283
0.917
9,092,920
8,674,572
8,529,909
202,761
13,547,866
25%
10,160,899
1,903,800
10,333,151
12,236,951
0.842
10,299,597
8,697,207
8,552,226
207,648
13,863,856
25%
10,397,892
3,209,100
10,574,254
13,783,354
0.772
10,643,278
8,165,264
8,029,081
212,669
14,189,939
25%
10,642,454
282,150
10,822,825
11,104,975
0.708
7,867,044
7,667,162
7,539,383
217,829
14,523,905
25%
10,892,929
5,238,300
11,077,715
16,316,015
0.650
10,604,290
7,199,755
7,079,656
223,131
14,920,628
25%
11,190,471
5,366,550
11,380,287
16,746,837
0.596
9,985,591
6,785,693
6,672,512
228,583
15,273,516
25%
11,455,137
4,537,200
11,649,546
16,186,746
0.547
8,854,705
6,372,701
6,266,352
234,190
15,637,441
25%
11,728,081
604,200
11,926,981
12,531,181
0.502
6,288,977
5,985,749
5,885,928
239,957
16,012,089
25%
12,009,066
6,107,550
12,212,542
18,320,092
0.460
8,435,079
5,622,993
5,529,308
10
245,892
16,396,197
25%
12,297,148
3,608,100
12,505,598
16,113,698
0.422
6,806,600
5,282,500
5,194,448
11
252,001
16,792,289
25%
12,594,217
1,100,100
12,590,276
13,690,376
0.388
5,305,470
4,879,146
4,880,673
12
258,290
17,199,734
25%
12,899,801
4,203,750
12,677,379
16,881,129
0.356
6,001,827
4,507,248
4,586,327
13
264,769
17,620,425
25%
13,215,318
949,050
12,767,155
13,716,205
0.326
4,473,933
4,164,373
4,310,555
14
271,445
18,052,783
25%
13,539,587
2,328,450
12,859,418
15,187,868
0.299
4,544,916
3,848,135
4,051,674
15
278,326
18,551,998
25%
13,913,999
2,009,250
12,966,020
14,975,270
0.275
4,111,281
3,559,666
3,819,922
16
285,422
19,012,108
25%
14,259,081
2,721,750
13,064,314
15,786,064
0.252
3,976,032
3,290,506
3,591,431
17
292,742
19,486,410
25%
14,614,807
4,138,200
13,165,716
17,303,916
0.231
3,998,471
3,042,244
3,377,090
18
300,297
19,975,533
25%
14,981,650
1,216,950
13,270,227
14,487,177
0.212
3,071,191
2,813,205
3,176,016
19
308,098
20,481,686
25%
15,361,264
1,259,700
13,378,281
14,637,981
0.194
2,846,936
2,601,938
20
316,157
21,004,237
25%
15,753,178
1,285,350
13,489,880
14,775,230
0.178
2,636,357
2,407,011
2,810,854
71,818,385
242,993,986
149,964,522
106,394,207
106,870,951
CIP (I+ OM )
149,964,522
106,870,951
'=
S/
1.40 por M3
CIP ( OM )
106,394,207
106,870,951
S/
1.00 por M3
VALOR ACTUAL

ALTERNATIVA 2
COSTOS UNITARIOS/M3
Limite de
Soles por
consumo de
19.14 Capacidad de
M3
m3 (Soles)**
Pago (Soles)***
Esta dentro
Subsidio
Capacidad
Pago ??
(S/mes)
por conexin
1.00
19.05
38.75
SI
0.00
1.40
26.86
38.75
SI
0.00
**
*** Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ 775 x 0.03 = S/ 38.75

**** Lmite de capacidad de pago / conexin: S/ m3
2.025
11
Valor Actual
Precios Privados
2,987,607

EVALUACION ECONOMICA DE SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE

ALTERNATIVA 2
1
Aos
Poblacin
Total
Poblacin
Conectada
(%)
4a
4b
4c
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
5a
5b
5c
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
Inversin Total
a precios
sociales (S/.)
Produccin
de agua
(m3/ao)
Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales
Flujo neto a
precios sociales
-5,002,426
1.000
-5,002,426
5,002,426.03
11
Valor actual del
flujo neto a
precios sociales
11%
187135
100.0%
3,423
38254
41677
6,221,612 62,216,777
68,438,388
227,612.49
12,396,802
6,230,495
61,980,281
0.901
55,838,091
202761
100.0%
3,423
41737
45160
6,221,612 67,881,571
74,103,182
950,282.14
13,547,866
6,862,584
66,290,316
0.812
53,802,708
207648
100.0%
3,423
42825
46248
6,221,612 69,651,107
75,872,719
1,601,822.88
13,863,856
7,036,106
67,234,790
0.731
49,161,499
212669
100.0%
3,423
43943
47366
6,221,612 71,469,436
77,691,048
140,835.23
14,189,939
7,215,169
70,335,044
0.659
46,331,872
217829
100.0%
3,423
45091
48514
6,221,612 73,336,558
79,558,169
2,614,698.46
14,523,905
7,398,561
69,544,910
0.593
41,271,519
223131
100.0%
3,423
46272
49695
6,221,612 75,257,350
81,478,962
2,678,714.47
14,920,628
7,616,416
71,183,832
0.535
38,057,783
228583
100.0%
3,423
47486
50909
6,221,612 77,231,815
83,453,427
2,264,744.26
15,273,516
7,810,199
73,378,484
0.482
35,343,364
234190
100.0%
3,423
48734
52157
6,221,612 79,261,578
85,483,189
301,586.55
15,637,441
8,010,043
77,171,560
0.434
33,486,785
239957
100.0%
3,423
50020
53443
6,221,612 81,353,144
87,574,755
3,048,584.76
16,012,089
8,215,775
76,310,396
0.391
29,831,624
10
245892
100.0%
3,423
51342
54765
6,221,612 83,503,261
89,724,873
1,800,983.81
16,396,197
8,426,702
79,497,187
0.352
27,997,675
11
252001
100.0%
3,423
52702
56125
6,221,612 85,715,182
91,936,793
549,115.13
16,792,289
8,426,702
82,960,976
0.317
26,322,133
12
258290
100.0%
3,423
54103
57526
6,221,612 87,993,785
94,215,397
2,098,302.62
17,199,734
8,426,702
83,690,392
0.286
23,922,131
87,663,516
13
264769
100.0%
3,423
55547
58970
6,221,612 90,342,325
96,563,936
473,718.49
17,620,425
8,426,702
0.258
22,574,605
14
271445
100.0%
3,423
57034
60457
6,221,612 92,760,800
98,982,411
1,162,246.27
18,052,783
8,426,702
89,393,463
0.232
20,738,821
15
278326
100.0%
3,423
58565
61988
6,221,612 95,250,837
101,472,449
1,002,917.53
18,551,998
8,426,702
92,042,829
0.209
19,237,351
16
17
285422
292742
100.0%
100.0%
3,423
3,423
60146
61776
63569
65199
6,221,612 97,822,195 104,043,807

6,221,612 100,473,247 106,694,859
1,358,562.04
2,065,583.33
19,012,108
19,486,410
8,426,702
8,426,702
94,258,543
96,202,573
0.188
0.170
17,748,149
16,319,094
18
19
300297
308098
100.0%
100.0%
3,423
3,423
63457
65195
66880
68618
6,221,612 103,207,246 109,428,858

6,221,612 106,033,951 112,255,562
607,440.83
628,779.50
19,975,533
20,481,686
8,426,702
8,426,702
100,394,715
103,200,081
0.153
0.138
15,342,539
14,208,343
20
316157
100.0%
3,423
66991
70414
6,221,612 108,954,987 115,176,599
641,582.70
21,004,237
448,461
114,086,555
0.124
14,150,601
10
Factor de
descuento
VAN SOCIAL
TIR SOCIAL
596,684,262
1245.54%

Cuadro N 6A
Cuadro N 6
ANALISIS DE SENSIBILIDAD DEL SISTEMA DE AGUA POTABLE
Alternativa 2: Anlisis de Sensibilidad en las Variables

Principales
ALTERNATIVA 2
1
Poblacin Total
Poblacin
Conectada
(%)
4a
4b
4c

Aos
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
5a
5b
5c
Costos de
Operacin y
mantenimiento
incrementales
Flujo neto a precios

sociales
10
11
Antiguas
Nuevas
Total
Inversin Total a
Produccin de
precios sociales
agua (m3/ao)
(S/.)
Factor de
descuento
Valor actual del

flujo neto a
precios sociales
-5,002,426
1.000
-5,002,426
Incremento
VAN (s)
TIR (s)
12,396,802
6,230,495
61,980,281
0.901
55,838,091
0.00%
596,684,262
Err:504
74,103,182
950,282
13,547,866
6,862,584
66,290,316
0.812
53,802,708
641.0%
497,236,885
Err:504
75,872,719
1,601,823
13,863,856
7,036,106
67,234,790
0.731
49,161,499
1282.0%
397,789,508
Err:504
77,691,048
140,835
14,189,939
7,215,169
70,335,044
0.659
46,331,872
1923.0%
298,342,131
Err:504
73,336,558
79,558,169
2,614,698
14,523,905
7,398,561
69,544,910
0.593
41,271,519
2563.9%
198,894,754
Err:504
6,221,612
75,257,350
81,478,962
2,678,714
14,920,628
7,616,416
71,183,832
0.535
38,057,783
3204.9%
99,447,377
Err:504
6,221,612
77,231,815
83,453,427
2,264,744
15,273,516
7,810,199
73,378,484
0.482
35,343,364
3845.9%
11.0%
52157
6,221,612
79,261,578
85,483,189
301,587
15,637,441
8,010,043
77,171,560
0.434
33,486,785
5,002,426
100.0%
202761
100.0%
207648
100.0%
212669
100.0%
217829
6
7
3423
38254
41677
6,221,612
62,216,777
68,438,388
3,423
41737
45160
6,221,612
67,881,571
3,423
42825
46248
6,221,612
69,651,107
3,423
43943
47366
6,221,612
71,469,436
100.0%
3,423
45091
48514
6,221,612
223131
100.0%
3,423
46272
49695
228583
100.0%
3,423
47486
50909
234190
100.0%
3,423
48734
Escen. 2.- Disminucin de Beneficios
239957
100.0%
3,423
50020
53443
6,221,612
81,353,144
87,574,755
3,048,585
16,012,089
8,215,775
76,310,396
0.391
29,831,624
Disminucin
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
10
245892
100.0%
3,423
51342
54765
6,221,612
83,503,261
89,724,873
1,800,984
16,396,197
8,426,702
79,497,187
0.352
27,997,675
0.00%
596,684,262
Err:504
11
252001
100.0%
3,423
52702
56125
6,221,612
85,715,182
91,936,793
549,115
16,792,289
8,426,702
82,960,976
0.317
26,322,133
29.6%
397,789,508
Err:504
12
258290
100.0%
3,423
54103
57526
6,221,612
87,993,785
94,215,397
2,098,303
17,199,734
8,426,702
83,690,392
0.286
23,922,131
59.2%
198,894,754
Err:504
13
264769
100.0%
3,423
55547
58970
6,221,612
90,342,325
96,563,936
473,718
17,620,425
8,426,702
87,663,516
0.258
22,574,605
88.8%
14
271445
100.0%
3,423
57034
60457
6,221,612
92,760,800
98,982,411
1,162,246
18,052,783
8,426,702
89,393,463
0.232
20,738,821
15
278326
100.0%
3,423
58565
61988
6,221,612
95,250,837
101,472,449
1,002,918
18,551,998
8,426,702
92,042,829
0.209
19,237,351
16
285422
100.0%
3,423
60146
63569
6,221,612
97,822,195
104,043,807
1,358,562
19,012,108
8,426,702
94,258,543
0.188
17
292742
100.0%
3,423
61776
65199
6,221,612
100,473,247
106,694,859
2,065,583
19,486,410
8,426,702
96,202,573
0.170
18
300297
100.0%
3,423
63457
66880
6,221,612
103,207,246
109,428,858
607,441
19,975,533
8,426,702
100,394,715
0.153
19
308098
100.0%
3,423
65195
68618
6,221,612
106,033,951
112,255,562
628,779
20,481,686
8,426,702
103,200,081
20
316157
100.0%
3,423
66991
70414
6,221,612
108,954,987
115,176,599
641,583
21,004,237
448,461
114,086,555
671,647,588
15,514,774.4
10.03698561
38.45910011
VAN (f)
TIR (f)
17,748,149
0.00%
596,684,262
Err:504
16,319,094
143.4%
511,443,653
Err:504
15,342,539
286.8%
426,203,044
Err:504
0.138
14,208,343
430.2%
340,962,435
0.124
14,150,601
573.5%
255,721,826
Err:504
716.9%
170,481,218
#VALUE!
860.3%
85,240,609
#VALUE!
1003.7%
VAN SOCIAL
596,684,262
TIR SOCIAL
1245.54%
MAX INCR DE INVERSION
596684262 0.8883888999 MAX REDUCCION DE BENEFICIOS
11.0%
Escen. 3.- Incremento Costos de Oper. y Mant.

Incremento
59,448,552
ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD
227,612
0
187135
TIR (s)
1245.54%
Escen. 1.-Incremento de Costos de Inversin
11%
VAN (s)
596,684,262
596,684,262
FUENTE: Elaboracin del Consultor

596,684,262
VAN (f)
Err:504
11.0%
1245.54%
TIR (f)

INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE

ALCANTARILLADO
PLANTA DE TRATAMIENTO
ALTERNATIVA UNICA
(A PRECIOS SOCIALES)
Aos
INVERSION
TOTAL
1,567,050.85
Operacin Y
Mantenimiento
(miles de S/.)
TOTAL
COSTOS ( S/.)
Poblacin
Beneficiada
Incrementada
Poblacin Beneficiada
TOTAL
275,060
1,842,111
172,714
0.0
263,067
263,067
170,410
187,135
0.0
266,423
266,423
15,626
202,761
0.0
269,766
269,766
4,887
207,648
212,669
0.0
273,191
273,191
5,021
0.0
276,666
276,666
5,159
217,829
0.0
280,159
280,159
5,303
223,131
0.0
283,675
283,675
5,452
228,583
0.0
287,224
287,224
5,607
234,190
0.0
290,831
290,831
5,767
239,957
10
0.0
302,742
302,742
5,935
245,892
252,001
11
0.0
302,742
302,742
6,109
12
0.0
302,742
302,742
6,290
258,290
264,769
13
0.0
302,742
302,742
6,479
14
0.0
302,742
302,742
6,676
271,445
15
0.0
302,742
302,742
6,881
278,326
16
0.0
302,742
302,742
7,096
285,422
17
0.0
302,742
302,742
7,320
292,742
18
0.0
302,742
302,742
7,555
300,297
19
0.0
302,742
302,742
7,801
308,098
302,742
8,058
316,157
20
0.0
302,742
0
VAC
PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA
ICE
4,096,024
216,514
18.9

INDICE COSTO EFECTIVIDAD DEL SUBCOMPONENTE DE ALCANTARILLADO PLANTA DE TRATAMIENTO

ALTERNATIVA UNICA
Aos
Inversin en
Redes y
Conexiones
(miles de S/.)
INVERSION
TOTAL
Operacin Y
Mantenimiento (miles
de S/.)
TOTAL COSTOS (miles

de S/.)
0.0%
0.0%
Poblacin
Beneficiada
Incrementada
Poblacin
Beneficiada
TOTAL
1567050.9
275,059.8
1,842,110.7
172,714
0.0
263,066.6
263,066.6
#REF!
14,422
187,135
0.0
266,423.0
266,423.0
#REF!
15,626
202,761
0.0
269,766.0
269,766.0
#REF!
4,887
207,648
0.0
273,190.7
273,190.7
#REF!
5,021
212,669
0.0
276,666.1
276,666.1
#REF!
5,159
217,829
5,303
223,131
0.0
280,159.3
280,159.3
#REF!
0.0
283,675.3
283,675.3
#REF!
5,452
228,583
0.0
287,223.7
287,223.7
#REF!
5,607
234,190
0.0
290,830.9
290,830.9
#REF!
5,767
239,957
10
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
#REF!
5,935
245,892
11
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
12
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
13
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
14
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
15
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
16
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
17
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
18
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
19
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
245,892
20
0.0
302,742.2
302,742.2
COSTOS REFERENCIALES (ANEXO SNIP 13)

Ampliacin redes y conexiones de alcantarillado: US $ 185
Ampliacin de plantas de trtamiento de aguas servidas: US $ 90
Nuevas
Conexiones
0
245,892
1,567,051
A precios Privas A precios Sociales
629
504.458
Soles
306
247.554
Soles
VAC =
PROMEDIO POBL. BENEFICIADA
ICE =
4,096,024
216,514
18.9

Alternativa 1: Anlisis de Sensibilidad en las

Variables Principales
VAC
4,096,024
216,514
18.9

ICE =
ALCANTARILLADO ESCENARIOS DE SENSIBILIDAD
Porcentaje de
Incremento
VAC
POBL. BENEF.
4,252,729
57,102
50%
4,879,549
57,102
100%
5,663,075
57,102
99.2
150%
6,446,600
57,102
112.9
300%
8,797,176
57,102
154.1
600%
13,498,329
57,102
236.4
640.5%
14,132,985
57,102
247.5
Porcentaje de
Incremento
ICE
74.5
85.5
Incremento en Costos de O y M
VAC
POBL. BENEF.
10%
4,321,415
57,102
50%
5,222,980
57,102
91.5
100%
6,349,937
57,102
111.2
7,476,893
57,102
130.9
150%
200%
Incremento en Costos de Inversin
10%
ICE
75.7
8,603,850
57,102
150.7
400%
13,111,676
57,102
229.6
445.4%
14,134,953
57,102
247.5
4,096,024
VAC
216,514
POBL. BENEF.
18.9
ICE

INFORME FINAL
Cuadro N27
ANALISIS DE RIESGO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N1
FLUJO DE BENEFICIOS Y COSTOS DEL PROYECTO

0
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
A. Total de Beneficios
B. Total de costos de inversin
C. Total de costos de operacin y manten incr.
Costos de Operacin y Mantenimiento
0
61,142,318
0
0
68,438,388
226,740
6,230,495
6,230,495
74,103,182
946,638
6,862,584
6,862,584
75,872,719
1,595,681
7,036,106
7,036,106
77,691,048
140,295
7,215,169
7,215,169
79,558,169
2,604,673
7,398,561
7,398,561
81,478,962
2,668,443
7,616,416
7,616,416
83,453,427
2,256,060
7,810,199
7,810,199
85,483,189
300,430
8,010,043
8,010,043
87,574,755
3,036,895
8,215,775
8,215,775
89,724,873
1,794,078
8,426,702
8,426,702
91,936,793
547,010
8,426,702
8,426,702
94,215,397
2,090,257
8,426,702
8,426,702
96,563,936
0
8,426,702
8,426,702
98,982,411
0
8,426,702
8,426,702
101,472,449
0
8,426,702
8,426,702
104,043,807
0
8,426,702
8,426,702
Flujo de caja social (A - B - C )
95,617,105
-61,142,318
61,981,154
66,293,960
67,240,932
70,335,584
69,554,935
71,194,103
73,387,168
77,172,716
76,322,085
79,504,092
82,963,082
83,698,438
88,137,234
90,555,709
93,045,747
Factor de Actualizacin
1.000
0.877
0.769
0.675
0.592
0.519
0.456
0.400
0.351
0.308
0.270
0.237
0.208
0.182
0.160
0.140
0.123
Tasa de descuento
0.14
54,369,433
51,011,049
45,385,714
41,644,312
36,124,654
32,435,076
29,328,251
27,053,595
23,469,647
21,445,737
19,630,507
17,372,373
16,047,092
14,462,651
13,035,382
11,750,544
4
-140,295
-7,215,169
-7,355,464
5
-2,604,673
-7,398,561
-10,003,234
6
-2,668,443
-7,616,416
-10,284,859
7
-2,256,060
-7,810,199
-10,066,259
8
-300,430
-8,010,043
-8,310,473
9
-3,036,895
-8,215,775
-11,252,670
10
-1,794,078
-8,426,702
-10,220,780
11
-547,010
-8,426,702
-8,973,712
12
-2,090,257
-8,426,702
-10,516,959
13
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
14
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
15
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
16
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
VP de los flujos
VAN
TIR
61,142,318
393,423,698
105.8%
ANALISIS DE RIESGO
ESPERANZA, DESVIACION ESTANDAR Y COEFICIENTE DE VARIABILIDAD

SIMULACIN DE MONTECARLO
Probabilidad de ocurrencia
Incremento de nivel de inversion
Incremento en costos de O y M
30%
8%
8%
incremento en costos
50%
10%
10%
20%
6%
4%
INCREMENTO DE NIVEL DE INVERSION

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
6%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.30
0.80
1.00
Numeros representativos
0
30
80
29
79
99
INCREMENTO COSTOS DE OPERACIN Y MANTENIMIENTO

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
4%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.3
0.8
1
0
30
80
29
79
99
0
-61,142,318
0
-61,142,318
1
-226,740
-6,230,495
-6,457,235
2
-946,638
-6,862,584
-7,809,223
3
-1,595,681
-7,036,106
-8,631,787
COSTOS
Inversin
Costos de operacin y mantenimiento
Consorcio Tres C

INFORME FINAL
Cuadro N28
ANALISIS DE RIESGO SIMULACIN DE MONTECARLO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N 1
20
% Increm. Inversin
N Experimento
% Inc.P:C.Agua
% Inc. Costos Oper. Comerc.
N. Aleat
Valor
N Aleator
Valor
N Aleator
Valor
50
9
54
22
20
97
68
61
50
18
63
83
83
78
9
20
75
20
48
90
80
97
23
61
42
83
28
3
24
47
19
9
46
18
43
5
15
58
30
36
98
78
55
12
3
14
40
2
15
3
46
19
36
61
81
12
71
53
87
23
2
23
93
98
62
59
14
4
88
69
4
57
98
53
92
27
76
44
73
20
34
73
16
91
96
10
31
19
95
37
75
24
52
61
9
61
7
69
78
19
10%
8%
10%
8%
8%
6%
10%
10%
10%
8%
10%
6%
6%
10%
8%
8%
10%
8%
10%
6%
6%
6%
8%
10%
10%
6%
8%
8%
8%
10%
8%
8%
10%
8%
10%
8%
8%
10%
10%
10%
6%
10%
10%
8%
8%
8%
10%
8%
8%
8%
10%
8%
10%
10%
6%
8%
10%
10%
6%
8%
8%
8%
6%
6%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
10%
8%
10%
6%
10%
6%
8%
10%
10%
10%
8%
10%
10%
8%
6%
6%
8%
10%
8%
6%
10%
10%
8%
10%
10%
8%
10%
8%
10%
10%
8%
12
68
10
78
84
41
81
85
80
7
28
11
6
59
86
32
28
9
38
75
52
70
81
23
52
10
57
98
80
63
7
14
63
69
11
20
77
85
11
70
4
99
91
3
86
10
34
75
49
17
63
35
6
82
85
97
8
60
14
54
99
77
9
37
73
37
30
82
65
25
13
7
96
83
60
6
49
94
100
8
34
57
51
18
43
77
67
48
95
11
35
15
79
41
67
13
29
62
71
84
8%
10%
8%
10%
4%
10%
4%
4%
4%
8%
8%
8%
8%
10%
4%
10%
8%
8%
10%
10%
10%
10%
4%
8%
10%
8%
10%
4%
4%
10%
8%
8%
10%
10%
8%
8%
10%
4%
8%
10%
8%
4%
4%
8%
4%
8%
10%
10%
10%
8%
10%
10%
8%
4%
4%
4%
8%
10%
8%
10%
4%
10%
8%
10%
10%
10%
10%
4%
10%
8%
8%
8%
4%
4%
10%
8%
10%
4%
4%
8%
10%
10%
10%
8%
10%
10%
10%
10%
4%
8%
10%
8%
10%
10%
10%
8%
8%
10%
10%
4%
46
84
34
89
19
65
35
99
29
29
95
33
73
19
39
6
94
24
19
75
72
59
60
56
83
3
43
92
38
50
28
96
12
17
16
68
3
11
60
87
88
33
82
47
39
8
19
84
49
77
66
51
69
55
67
6
88
71
25
45
2
65
4
47
77
61
33
66
51
27
98
2
46
74
77
24
90
25
98
82
99
74
81
18
65
57
45
3
6
15
83
64
96
7
51
35
72
23
61
71
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Limite Inferior
Lmite Superior
Marca de Clase
Frecuencia
334,982,752
339,851,429
344,720,106
349,588,783
354,457,460
339,851,429
344,720,106
349,588,783
354,457,460
359,326,137
337,417,090
342,285,767
347,154,445
352,023,122
356,891,799
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
COSTOS AO 0 COSTOS AO 1 COSTOS AO 2 COSTOS AO 3 COSTOS AO 4 COSTOS AO 5 COSTOS AO 6 COSTOS AO 7 COSTOS AO 8 COSTOS AO 9
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-6,978,348
-7,098,423
-6,978,348
-7,098,423
-6,724,594
-7,093,889
-6,729,128
-6,729,128
-6,729,128
-6,973,813
-6,978,348
-6,969,279
-6,969,279
-7,102,958
-6,724,594
-7,098,423
-6,978,348
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,093,889
-7,093,889
-7,093,889
-6,724,594
-6,978,348
-7,102,958
-6,969,279
-7,098,423
-6,724,594
-6,724,594
-7,102,958
-6,973,813
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,978,348
-6,973,813
-7,098,423
-6,729,128
-6,978,348
-7,102,958
-6,969,279
-6,729,128
-6,729,128
-6,973,813
-6,724,594
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-7,098,423
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,978,348
-6,729,128
-6,720,059
-6,724,594
-6,978,348
-7,102,958
-6,969,279
-7,098,423
-6,724,594
-7,098,423
-6,969,279
-7,093,889
-7,102,958
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,724,594
-7,093,889
-6,978,348
-6,973,813
-6,978,348
-6,720,059
-6,729,128
-7,093,889
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-6,729,128
-6,729,128
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,969,279
-7,093,889
-7,098,423
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,720,059
-6,978,348
-7,102,958
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,102,958
-7,098,423
-6,978,348
-6,973,813
-7,102,958
-7,102,958
-6,724,594
-8,452,893
-8,571,212
-8,452,893
-8,571,212
-8,159,457
-8,552,279
-8,178,390
-8,178,390
-8,178,390
-8,433,960
-8,452,893
-8,415,028
-8,415,028
-8,590,145
-8,159,457
-8,571,212
-8,452,893
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,552,279
-8,552,279
-8,552,279
-8,159,457
-8,452,893
-8,590,145
-8,415,028
-8,571,212
-8,159,457
-8,159,457
-8,590,145
-8,433,960
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,452,893
-8,433,960
-8,571,212
-8,178,390
-8,452,893
-8,590,145
-8,415,028
-8,178,390
-8,178,390
-8,433,960
-8,159,457
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,571,212
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,452,893
-8,178,390
-8,140,524
-8,159,457
-8,452,893
-8,590,145
-8,415,028
-8,571,212
-8,159,457
-8,571,212
-8,415,028
-8,552,279
-8,590,145
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,159,457
-8,552,279
-8,452,893
-8,433,960
-8,452,893
-8,140,524
-8,178,390
-8,552,279
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,178,390
-8,178,390
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,415,028
-8,552,279
-8,571,212
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,140,524
-8,452,893
-8,590,145
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,590,145
-8,571,212
-8,452,893
-8,433,960
-8,590,145
-8,590,145
-8,159,457
-9,354,243
-9,463,052
-9,354,243
-9,463,052
-9,040,885
-9,431,138
-9,072,799
-9,072,799
-9,072,799
-9,322,330
-9,354,243
-9,290,416
-9,290,416
-9,494,965
-9,040,885
-9,463,052
-9,354,243
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,431,138
-9,431,138
-9,431,138
-9,040,885
-9,354,243
-9,494,965
-9,290,416
-9,463,052
-9,040,885
-9,040,885
-9,494,965
-9,322,330
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,354,243
-9,322,330
-9,463,052
-9,072,799
-9,354,243
-9,494,965
-9,290,416
-9,072,799
-9,072,799
-9,322,330
-9,040,885
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,463,052
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,354,243
-9,072,799
-9,008,972
-9,040,885
-9,354,243
-9,494,965
-9,290,416
-9,463,052
-9,040,885
-9,463,052
-9,290,416
-9,431,138
-9,494,965
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,040,885
-9,431,138
-9,354,243
-9,322,330
-9,354,243
-9,008,972
-9,072,799
-9,431,138
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,072,799
-9,072,799
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,290,416
-9,431,138
-9,463,052
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,008,972
-9,354,243
-9,494,965
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,494,965
-9,463,052
-9,354,243
-9,322,330
-9,494,965
-9,494,965
-9,040,885
-7,946,707
-8,088,204
-7,946,707
-8,088,204
-7,655,294
-8,085,399
-7,658,100
-7,658,100
-7,658,100
-7,943,901
-7,946,707
-7,941,095
-7,941,095
-8,091,010
-7,655,294
-8,088,204
-7,946,707
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,085,399
-8,085,399
-8,085,399
-7,655,294
-7,946,707
-8,091,010
-7,941,095
-8,088,204
-7,655,294
-7,655,294
-8,091,010
-7,943,901
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,946,707
-7,943,901
-8,088,204
-7,658,100
-7,946,707
-8,091,010
-7,941,095
-7,658,100
-7,658,100
-7,943,901
-7,655,294
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-8,088,204
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,946,707
-7,658,100
-7,652,488
-7,655,294
-7,946,707
-8,091,010
-7,941,095
-8,088,204
-7,655,294
-8,088,204
-7,941,095
-8,085,399
-8,091,010
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,655,294
-8,085,399
-7,946,707
-7,943,901
-7,946,707
-7,652,488
-7,658,100
-8,085,399
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-7,658,100
-7,658,100
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,941,095
-8,085,399
-8,088,204
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,652,488
-7,946,707
-8,091,010
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,091,010
-8,088,204
-7,946,707
-7,943,901
-8,091,010
-8,091,010
-7,655,294
n=numero de datos
rango=Lmax-Lmin
c=numero de intervalos
amplitud=
100
4,868,677
5
973735.431
TABLA DE FRECUENCIAS
ESPERANZA VAN
DESVIACION ESTANDAR
COEF.DE VARIABILIDAD
330,668,748
335,708,638
-101.524
INTERVALO AL 95% DE CONFIANZA

VAN 1
VAN 2
Consorcio Tres C
-327,320,182
988,657,679
LIMITE INFERIOR
LIMITE SUPERIOR
Probabilidad
98
0
0
0
0
98
0.98
0
0
0
0
Frecuencia
Acumulada
Promedio del Rango
98
98
98
98
98
(Marca Clase-Van)2
330,668,748
###
0
###
0
###
0
###
0
###
330,668,748 6.0281808E+017
F*(Marca Clase-Van)2
###
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
###
-10,855,586
-10,951,464
-10,855,586
-10,951,464
-10,507,550
-10,899,371
-10,559,644
-10,559,644
-10,559,644
-10,803,493
-10,855,586
-10,751,399
-10,751,399
-11,003,557
-10,507,550
-10,951,464
-10,855,586
-10,803,493
-11,003,557
-10,899,371
-10,899,371
-10,899,371
-10,507,550
-10,855,586
-11,003,557
-10,751,399
-10,951,464
-10,507,550
-10,507,550
-11,003,557
-10,803,493
-10,803,493
-11,003,557
-10,951,464
-10,855,586
-10,803,493
-10,951,464
-10,559,644
-10,855,586
-11,003,557
-10,751,399
-10,559,644
-10,559,644
-10,803,493
-10,507,550
-10,803,493
-11,003,557
-10,951,464
-10,951,464
-10,803,493
-11,003,557
-10,951,464
-10,855,586
-10,559,644
-10,455,457
-10,507,550
-10,855,586
-11,003,557
-10,751,399
-10,951,464
-10,507,550
-10,951,464
-10,751,399
-10,899,371
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-11,003,557
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-10,899,371
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-10,855,586
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-10,899,371
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-10,559,644
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-11,003,557
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-11,003,557
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-11,161,016
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-11,206,607
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-10,856,360
-10,856,360
-11,107,648
-11,161,016
-11,054,279
-11,054,279
-11,313,345
-10,802,991
-11,259,976
-11,161,016
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-11,206,607
-11,206,607
-11,206,607
-10,802,991
-11,161,016
-11,313,345
-11,054,279
-11,259,976
-10,802,991
-10,802,991
-11,313,345
-11,107,648
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-11,259,976
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-11,107,648
-11,259,976
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-11,313,345
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-11,259,976
-11,054,279
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-11,313,345
-11,259,976
-10,802,991
-11,206,607
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-11,161,016
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-11,206,607
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-10,856,360
-10,856,360
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-11,313,345
-11,259,976
-11,054,279
-11,206,607
-11,259,976
-11,313,345
-11,259,976
-10,749,622
-11,161,016
-11,313,345
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-11,313,345
-11,259,976
-11,161,016
-11,107,648
-11,313,345
-11,313,345
-10,802,991
-10,916,681
-11,027,764
-10,916,681
-11,027,764
-10,559,152
-10,982,642
-10,604,273
-10,604,273
-10,604,273
-10,871,560
-10,916,681
-10,826,438
-10,826,438
-11,072,885
-10,559,152
-11,027,764
-10,916,681
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-10,982,642
-10,982,642
-10,982,642
-10,559,152
-10,916,681
-11,072,885
-10,826,438
-11,027,764
-10,559,152
-10,559,152
-11,072,885
-10,871,560
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,916,681
-10,871,560
-11,027,764
-10,604,273
-10,916,681
-11,072,885
-10,826,438
-10,604,273
-10,604,273
-10,871,560
-10,559,152
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-11,027,764
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,916,681
-10,604,273
-10,514,031
-10,559,152
-10,916,681
-11,072,885
-10,826,438
-11,027,764
-10,559,152
-11,027,764
-10,826,438
-10,982,642
-11,072,885
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,559,152
-10,982,642
-10,916,681
-10,871,560
-10,916,681
-10,514,031
-10,604,273
-10,982,642
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-10,604,273
-10,604,273
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,826,438
-10,982,642
-11,027,764
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,514,031
-10,916,681
-11,072,885
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,072,885
-11,027,764
-10,916,681
-10,871,560
-11,072,885
-11,072,885
-10,559,152
-8,981,319
-9,135,511
-8,981,319
-9,135,511
-8,654,909
-9,129,503
-8,660,918
-8,660,918
-8,660,918
-8,975,311
-8,981,319
-8,969,302
-8,969,302
-9,141,520
-8,654,909
-9,135,511
-8,981,319
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,129,503
-9,129,503
-9,129,503
-8,654,909
-8,981,319
-9,141,520
-8,969,302
-9,135,511
-8,654,909
-8,654,909
-9,141,520
-8,975,311
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,981,319
-8,975,311
-9,135,511
-8,660,918
-8,981,319
-9,141,520
-8,969,302
-8,660,918
-8,660,918
-8,975,311
-8,654,909
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-9,135,511
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,981,319
-8,660,918
-8,648,900
-8,654,909
-8,981,319
-9,141,520
-8,969,302
-9,135,511
-8,654,909
-9,135,511
-8,969,302
-9,129,503
-9,141,520
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,654,909
-9,129,503
-8,981,319
-8,975,311
-8,981,319
-8,648,900
-8,660,918
-9,129,503
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-8,660,918
-8,660,918
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,969,302
-9,129,503
-9,135,511
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,648,900
-8,981,319
-9,141,520
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,141,520
-9,135,511
-8,981,319
-8,975,311
-9,141,520
-9,141,520
-8,654,909
-12,213,622
-12,317,199
-12,213,622
-12,317,199
-11,824,253
-12,256,461
-11,884,991
-11,884,991
-11,884,991
-12,152,884
-12,213,622
-12,092,146
-12,092,146
-12,377,937
-11,824,253
-12,317,199
-12,213,622
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,256,461
-12,256,461
-12,256,461
-11,824,253
-12,213,622
-12,377,937
-12,092,146
-12,317,199
-11,824,253
-11,824,253
-12,377,937
-12,152,884
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-12,213,622
-12,152,884
-12,317,199
-11,884,991
-12,213,622
-12,377,937
-12,092,146
-11,884,991
-11,884,991
-12,152,884
-11,824,253
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-12,317,199
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-12,213,622
-11,884,991
-11,763,515
-11,824,253
-12,213,622
-12,377,937
-12,092,146
-12,317,199
-11,824,253
-12,317,199
-12,092,146
-12,256,461
-12,377,937
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-11,824,253
-12,256,461
-12,213,622
-12,152,884
-12,213,622
-11,763,515
-11,884,991
-12,256,461
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-11,884,991
-11,884,991
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-12,092,146
-12,256,461
-12,317,199
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-11,763,515
-12,213,622
-12,377,937
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,377,937
-12,317,199
-12,213,622
-12,152,884
-12,377,937
-12,377,937
-11,824,253
COSTOS AO
10
-11,074,324
-11,206,977
-11,074,324
-11,206,977
-10,701,375
-11,171,095
-10,737,256
-10,737,256
-10,737,256
-11,038,443
-11,074,324
-11,002,561
-11,002,561
-11,242,858
-10,701,375
-11,206,977
-11,074,324
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,171,095
-11,171,095
-11,171,095
-10,701,375
-11,074,324
-11,242,858
-11,002,561
-11,206,977
-10,701,375
-10,701,375
-11,242,858
-11,038,443
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-11,074,324
-11,038,443
-11,206,977
-10,737,256
-11,074,324
-11,242,858
-11,002,561
-10,737,256
-10,737,256
-11,038,443
-10,701,375
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-11,206,977
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-11,074,324
-10,737,256
-10,665,493
-10,701,375
-11,074,324
-11,242,858
-11,002,561
-11,206,977
-10,701,375
-11,206,977
-11,002,561
-11,171,095
-11,242,858
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-10,701,375
-11,171,095
-11,074,324
-11,038,443
-11,074,324
-10,665,493
-10,737,256
-11,171,095
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-10,737,256
-10,737,256
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-11,002,561
-11,171,095
-11,206,977
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-10,665,493
-11,074,324
-11,242,858
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,242,858
-11,206,977
-11,074,324
-11,038,443
-11,242,858
-11,242,858
-10,701,375
INFORME FINAL
Consorcio Tres C


INFORME FINAL
Cuadro N28
ANALISIS DE RIESGO SIMULACIN DE MONTECARLO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N 1
COSTOS AO 11
-9,702,549
-9,860,143
-9,702,549
-9,860,143
-9,354,540
-9,849,202
-9,365,481
-9,365,481
-9,365,481
-9,691,609
-9,702,549
-9,680,668
-9,680,668
-9,871,083
-9,354,540
-9,860,143
-9,702,549
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,849,202
-9,849,202
-9,849,202
-9,354,540
-9,702,549
-9,871,083
-9,680,668
-9,860,143
-9,354,540
-9,354,540
-9,871,083
-9,691,609
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,702,549
-9,691,609
-9,860,143
-9,365,481
-9,702,549
-9,871,083
-9,680,668
-9,365,481
-9,365,481
-9,691,609
-9,354,540
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,860,143
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,702,549
-9,365,481
-9,343,600
-9,354,540
-9,702,549
-9,871,083
-9,680,668
-9,860,143
-9,354,540
-9,860,143
-9,680,668
-9,849,202
-9,871,083
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,354,540
-9,849,202
-9,702,549
-9,691,609
-9,702,549
-9,343,600
-9,365,481
-9,849,202
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,365,481
-9,365,481
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,680,668
-9,849,202
-9,860,143
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,343,600
-9,702,549
-9,871,083
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,871,083
-9,860,143
-9,702,549
-9,691,609
-9,871,083
-9,871,083
-9,354,540
Consorcio Tres C
COSTOS AO
12
-11,400,121
-11,526,850
-11,400,121
-11,526,850
-11,021,248
-11,485,045
-11,063,053
-11,063,053
-11,063,053
-11,358,316
-11,400,121
-11,316,511
-11,316,511
-11,568,655
-11,021,248
-11,526,850
-11,400,121
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,485,045
-11,485,045
-11,485,045
-11,021,248
-11,400,121
-11,568,655
-11,316,511
-11,526,850
-11,021,248
-11,021,248
-11,568,655
-11,358,316
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,400,121
-11,358,316
-11,526,850
-11,063,053
-11,400,121
-11,568,655
-11,316,511
-11,063,053
-11,063,053
-11,358,316
-11,021,248
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,526,850
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,400,121
-11,063,053
-10,979,443
-11,021,248
-11,400,121
-11,568,655
-11,316,511
-11,526,850
-11,021,248
-11,526,850
-11,316,511
-11,485,045
-11,568,655
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,021,248
-11,485,045
-11,400,121
-11,358,316
-11,400,121
-10,979,443
-11,063,053
-11,485,045
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,063,053
-11,063,053
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,316,511
-11,485,045
-11,526,850
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-10,979,443
-11,400,121
-11,568,655
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,568,655
-11,526,850
-11,400,121
-11,358,316
-11,568,655
-11,568,655
-11,021,248
COSTOS AO
13
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
COSTOS AO
14
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
COSTOS AO
15
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
COSTOS AO
16
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-9,100,838
-9,100,838
-9,269,372
-9,269,372
-8,763,770
FLUJOS DE CAJA ANUALES

0
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-64,810,857
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-64,810,857
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
-67,256,550
-67,256,550
-66,033,704
1
61,460,040
61,339,965
61,460,040
61,339,965
61,713,795
61,344,500
61,709,260
61,709,260
61,709,260
61,464,575
61,460,040
61,469,110
61,469,110
61,335,430
61,713,795
61,339,965
61,460,040
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,344,500
61,344,500
61,344,500
61,713,795
61,460,040
61,335,430
61,469,110
61,339,965
61,713,795
61,713,795
61,335,430
61,464,575
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,460,040
61,464,575
61,339,965
61,709,260
61,460,040
61,335,430
61,469,110
61,709,260
61,709,260
61,464,575
61,713,795
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,339,965
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,460,040
61,709,260
61,718,329
61,713,795
61,460,040
61,335,430
61,469,110
61,339,965
61,713,795
61,339,965
61,469,110
61,344,500
61,335,430
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,713,795
61,344,500
61,460,040
61,464,575
61,460,040
61,718,329
61,709,260
61,344,500
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,709,260
61,709,260
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,469,110
61,344,500
61,339,965
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,718,329
61,460,040
61,335,430
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,335,430
61,339,965
61,460,040
61,464,575
61,335,430
61,335,430
61,713,795
2
65,650,289
65,531,970
65,650,289
65,531,970
65,943,725
65,550,903
65,924,792
65,924,792
65,924,792
65,669,222
65,650,289
65,688,155
65,688,155
65,513,037
65,943,725
65,531,970
65,650,289
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,550,903
65,550,903
65,550,903
65,943,725
65,650,289
65,513,037
65,688,155
65,531,970
65,943,725
65,943,725
65,513,037
65,669,222
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,650,289
65,669,222
65,531,970
65,924,792
65,650,289
65,513,037
65,688,155
65,924,792
65,924,792
65,669,222
65,943,725
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,531,970
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,650,289
65,924,792
65,962,658
65,943,725
65,650,289
65,513,037
65,688,155
65,531,970
65,943,725
65,531,970
65,688,155
65,550,903
65,513,037
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,943,725
65,550,903
65,650,289
65,669,222
65,650,289
65,962,658
65,924,792
65,550,903
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,924,792
65,924,792
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,688,155
65,550,903
65,531,970
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,962,658
65,650,289
65,513,037
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,513,037
65,531,970
65,650,289
65,669,222
65,513,037
65,513,037
65,943,725
3
66,518,476
66,409,667
66,518,476
66,409,667
66,831,834
66,441,581
66,799,920
66,799,920
66,799,920
66,550,389
66,518,476
66,582,303
66,582,303
66,377,754
66,831,834
66,409,667
66,518,476
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,441,581
66,441,581
66,441,581
66,831,834
66,518,476
66,377,754
66,582,303
66,409,667
66,831,834
66,831,834
66,377,754
66,550,389
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,518,476
66,550,389
66,409,667
66,799,920
66,518,476
66,377,754
66,582,303
66,799,920
66,799,920
66,550,389
66,831,834
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,409,667
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,518,476
66,799,920
66,863,747
66,831,834
66,518,476
66,377,754
66,582,303
66,409,667
66,831,834
66,409,667
66,582,303
66,441,581
66,377,754
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,831,834
66,441,581
66,518,476
66,550,389
66,518,476
66,863,747
66,799,920
66,441,581
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,799,920
66,799,920
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,582,303
66,441,581
66,409,667
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,863,747
66,518,476
66,377,754
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,377,754
66,409,667
66,518,476
66,550,389
66,377,754
66,377,754
66,831,834
4
69,744,341
69,602,843
69,744,341
69,602,843
70,035,754
69,605,649
70,032,948
70,032,948
70,032,948
69,747,147
69,744,341
69,749,953
69,749,953
69,600,037
70,035,754
69,602,843
69,744,341
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,605,649
69,605,649
69,605,649
70,035,754
69,744,341
69,600,037
69,749,953
69,602,843
70,035,754
70,035,754
69,600,037
69,747,147
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,602,843
69,744,341
69,747,147
69,602,843
70,032,948
69,744,341
69,600,037
69,749,953
70,032,948
70,032,948
69,747,147
70,035,754
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,602,843
69,602,843
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,602,843
69,744,341
70,032,948
70,038,559
70,035,754
69,744,341
69,600,037
69,749,953
69,602,843
70,035,754
69,602,843
69,749,953
69,605,649
69,600,037
69,600,037
69,602,843
70,035,754
69,605,649
69,744,341
69,747,147
69,744,341
70,038,559
70,032,948
69,605,649
69,747,147
69,600,037
70,032,948
70,032,948
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,600,037
69,602,843
69,749,953
69,605,649
69,602,843
69,600,037
69,602,843
70,038,559
69,744,341
69,600,037
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,600,037
69,602,843
69,744,341
69,747,147
69,600,037
69,600,037
70,035,754
5
68,702,583
68,606,705
68,702,583
68,606,705
69,050,619
68,658,799
68,998,525
68,998,525
68,998,525
68,754,676
68,702,583
68,806,770
68,806,770
68,554,612
69,050,619
68,606,705
68,702,583
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,658,799
68,658,799
68,658,799
69,050,619
68,702,583
68,554,612
68,806,770
68,606,705
69,050,619
69,050,619
68,554,612
68,754,676
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,606,705
68,702,583
68,754,676
68,606,705
68,998,525
68,702,583
68,554,612
68,806,770
68,998,525
68,998,525
68,754,676
69,050,619
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,606,705
68,606,705
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,606,705
68,702,583
68,998,525
69,102,712
69,050,619
68,702,583
68,554,612
68,806,770
68,606,705
69,050,619
68,606,705
68,806,770
68,658,799
68,554,612
68,554,612
68,606,705
69,050,619
68,658,799
68,702,583
68,754,676
68,702,583
69,102,712
68,998,525
68,658,799
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,998,525
68,998,525
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,554,612
68,606,705
68,806,770
68,658,799
68,606,705
68,554,612
68,606,705
69,102,712
68,702,583
68,554,612
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,554,612
68,606,705
68,702,583
68,754,676
68,554,612
68,554,612
69,050,619
6
70,317,946
70,218,986
70,317,946
70,218,986
70,675,971
70,272,355
70,622,602
70,622,602
70,622,602
70,371,315
70,317,946
70,424,683
70,424,683
70,165,617
70,675,971
70,218,986
70,317,946
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,272,355
70,272,355
70,272,355
70,675,971
70,317,946
70,165,617
70,424,683
70,218,986
70,675,971
70,675,971
70,165,617
70,371,315
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,317,946
70,371,315
70,218,986
70,622,602
70,317,946
70,165,617
70,424,683
70,622,602
70,622,602
70,371,315
70,675,971
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,218,986
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,317,946
70,622,602
70,729,340
70,675,971
70,317,946
70,165,617
70,424,683
70,218,986
70,675,971
70,218,986
70,424,683
70,272,355
70,165,617
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,675,971
70,272,355
70,317,946
70,371,315
70,317,946
70,729,340
70,622,602
70,272,355
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,622,602
70,622,602
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,424,683
70,272,355
70,218,986
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,729,340
70,317,946
70,165,617
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,165,617
70,218,986
70,317,946
70,371,315
70,165,617
70,165,617
70,675,971
7
72,536,746
72,425,663
72,536,746
72,425,663
72,894,275
72,470,784
72,849,154
72,849,154
72,849,154
72,581,867
72,536,746
72,626,988
72,626,988
72,380,542
72,894,275
72,425,663
72,536,746
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,470,784
72,470,784
72,470,784
72,894,275
72,536,746
72,380,542
72,626,988
72,425,663
72,894,275
72,894,275
72,380,542
72,581,867
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,536,746
72,581,867
72,425,663
72,849,154
72,536,746
72,380,542
72,626,988
72,849,154
72,849,154
72,581,867
72,894,275
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,425,663
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,536,746
72,849,154
72,939,396
72,894,275
72,536,746
72,380,542
72,626,988
72,425,663
72,894,275
72,425,663
72,626,988
72,470,784
72,380,542
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,894,275
72,470,784
72,536,746
72,581,867
72,536,746
72,939,396
72,849,154
72,470,784
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,849,154
72,849,154
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,626,988
72,470,784
72,425,663
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,939,396
72,536,746
72,380,542
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,380,542
72,425,663
72,536,746
72,581,867
72,380,542
72,380,542
72,894,275
8
76,501,870
76,347,678
76,501,870
76,347,678
76,828,280
76,353,686
76,822,272
76,822,272
76,822,272
76,507,879
76,501,870
76,513,887
76,513,887
76,341,669
76,828,280
76,347,678
76,501,870
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,353,686
76,353,686
76,353,686
76,828,280
76,501,870
76,341,669
76,513,887
76,347,678
76,828,280
76,828,280
76,341,669
76,507,879
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,501,870
76,507,879
76,347,678
76,822,272
76,501,870
76,341,669
76,513,887
76,822,272
76,822,272
76,507,879
76,828,280
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,347,678
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,501,870
76,822,272
76,834,289
76,828,280
76,501,870
76,341,669
76,513,887
76,347,678
76,828,280
76,347,678
76,513,887
76,353,686
76,341,669
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,828,280
76,353,686
76,501,870
76,507,879
76,501,870
76,834,289
76,822,272
76,353,686
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,822,272
76,822,272
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,513,887
76,353,686
76,347,678
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,834,289
76,501,870
76,341,669
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,341,669
76,347,678
76,501,870
76,507,879
76,341,669
76,341,669
76,828,280
9
75,361,134
75,257,556
75,361,134
75,257,556
75,750,503
75,318,294
75,689,765
75,689,765
75,689,765
75,421,872
75,361,134
75,482,610
75,482,610
75,196,818
75,750,503
75,257,556
75,361,134
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,318,294
75,318,294
75,318,294
75,750,503
75,361,134
75,196,818
75,482,610
75,257,556
75,750,503
75,750,503
75,196,818
75,421,872
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,361,134
75,421,872
75,257,556
75,689,765
75,361,134
75,196,818
75,482,610
75,689,765
75,689,765
75,421,872
75,750,503
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,257,556
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,361,134
75,689,765
75,811,241
75,750,503
75,361,134
75,196,818
75,482,610
75,257,556
75,750,503
75,257,556
75,482,610
75,318,294
75,196,818
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,750,503
75,318,294
75,361,134
75,421,872
75,361,134
75,811,241
75,689,765
75,318,294
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,689,765
75,689,765
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,482,610
75,318,294
75,257,556
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,811,241
75,361,134
75,196,818
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,196,818
75,257,556
75,361,134
75,421,872
75,196,818
75,196,818
75,750,503
10
78,650,548
78,517,896
78,650,548
78,517,896
79,023,498
78,553,777
78,987,616
78,987,616
78,987,616
78,686,430
78,650,548
78,722,311
78,722,311
78,482,014
79,023,498
78,517,896
78,650,548
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,553,777
78,553,777
78,553,777
79,023,498
78,650,548
78,482,014
78,722,311
78,517,896
79,023,498
79,023,498
78,482,014
78,686,430
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,517,896
78,650,548
78,686,430
78,517,896
78,987,616
78,650,548
78,482,014
78,722,311
78,987,616
78,987,616
78,686,430
79,023,498
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,517,896
78,517,896
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,517,896
78,650,548
78,987,616
79,059,380
79,023,498
78,650,548
78,482,014
78,722,311
78,517,896
79,023,498
78,517,896
78,722,311
78,553,777
78,482,014
78,482,014
78,517,896
79,023,498
78,553,777
78,650,548
78,686,430
78,650,548
79,059,380
78,987,616
78,553,777
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,987,616
78,987,616
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,482,014
78,517,896
78,722,311
78,553,777
78,517,896
78,482,014
78,517,896
79,059,380
78,650,548
78,482,014
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,482,014
78,517,896
78,650,548
78,686,430
78,482,014
78,482,014
79,023,498
11
82,234,245
82,076,651
82,234,245
82,076,651
82,582,253
82,087,591
82,571,313
82,571,313
82,571,313
82,245,185
82,234,245
82,256,125
82,256,125
82,065,710
82,582,253
82,076,651
82,234,245
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,087,591
82,087,591
82,087,591
82,582,253
82,234,245
82,065,710
82,256,125
82,076,651
82,582,253
82,582,253
82,065,710
82,245,185
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,234,245
82,245,185
82,076,651
82,571,313
82,234,245
82,065,710
82,256,125
82,571,313
82,571,313
82,245,185
82,582,253
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,076,651
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,234,245
82,571,313
82,593,193
82,582,253
82,234,245
82,065,710
82,256,125
82,076,651
82,582,253
82,076,651
82,256,125
82,087,591
82,065,710
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,582,253
82,087,591
82,234,245
82,245,185
82,234,245
82,593,193
82,571,313
82,087,591
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,571,313
82,571,313
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,256,125
82,087,591
82,076,651
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,593,193
82,234,245
82,065,710
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,065,710
82,076,651
82,234,245
82,245,185
82,065,710
82,065,710
82,582,253
12
82,815,276
82,688,547
82,815,276
82,688,547
83,194,149
82,730,352
83,152,344
83,152,344
83,152,344
82,857,081
82,815,276
82,898,886
82,898,886
82,646,742
83,194,149
82,688,547
82,815,276
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,730,352
82,730,352
82,730,352
83,194,149
82,815,276
82,646,742
82,898,886
82,688,547
83,194,149
83,194,149
82,646,742
82,857,081
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,688,547
82,815,276
82,857,081
82,688,547
83,152,344
82,815,276
82,646,742
82,898,886
83,152,344
83,152,344
82,857,081
83,194,149
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,688,547
82,688,547
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,688,547
82,815,276
83,152,344
83,235,954
83,194,149
82,815,276
82,646,742
82,898,886
82,688,547
83,194,149
82,688,547
82,898,886
82,730,352
82,646,742
82,646,742
82,688,547
83,194,149
82,730,352
82,815,276
82,857,081
82,815,276
83,235,954
83,152,344
82,730,352
82,857,081
82,646,742
83,152,344
83,152,344
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,646,742
82,688,547
82,898,886
82,730,352
82,688,547
82,646,742
82,688,547
83,235,954
82,815,276
82,646,742
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,646,742
82,688,547
82,815,276
82,857,081
82,646,742
82,646,742
83,194,149
13
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,800,166
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,463,098
87,463,098
87,294,564
87,294,564
87,800,166
14
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,713,039
90,218,641
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,881,573
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,881,573
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,881,573
90,218,641
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,881,573
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
90,218,641
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
90,218,641
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,713,039
89,881,573
89,881,573
89,713,039
89,713,039
90,218,641
15
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,708,679
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,371,611
92,371,611
92,203,076
92,203,076
92,708,679
16
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,774,434
95,280,036
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,942,968
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,942,968
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,942,968
95,280,036
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,942,968
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
95,280,036
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
95,280,036
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,774,434
94,942,968
94,942,968
94,774,434
94,774,434
95,280,036
VAN
335,801,127
336,189,528
335,801,127
336,189,528
338,644,653
337,396,304
337,437,877
337,437,877
337,437,877
337,007,903
335,801,127
338,214,679
338,214,679
334,982,752
338,644,653
336,189,528
335,801,127
337,007,903
334,982,752
337,396,304
337,396,304
337,396,304
338,644,653
335,801,127
334,982,752
338,214,679
336,189,528
338,644,653
338,644,653
334,982,752
337,007,903
337,007,903
334,982,752
336,189,528
335,801,127
337,007,903
336,189,528
337,437,877
335,801,127
334,982,752
338,214,679
337,437,877
337,437,877
337,007,903
338,644,653
337,007,903
334,982,752
336,189,528
336,189,528
337,007,903
334,982,752
336,189,528
335,801,127
337,437,877
339,851,429
338,644,653
335,801,127
334,982,752
338,214,679
336,189,528
338,644,653
336,189,528
338,214,679
337,396,304
334,982,752
334,982,752
336,189,528
338,644,653
337,396,304
335,801,127
337,007,903
335,801,127
339,851,429
337,437,877
337,396,304
337,007,903
334,982,752
337,437,877
337,437,877
337,007,903
334,982,752
334,982,752
336,189,528
338,214,679
337,396,304
336,189,528
334,982,752
336,189,528
339,851,429
335,801,127
334,982,752
337,007,903
334,982,752
334,982,752
336,189,528
335,801,127
337,007,903
334,982,752
334,982,752
338,644,653


A. Total deBeneficios
0
4,983,347
5,537,052
1,963,610
967,155
973,213
0
0
263,066,648
263,066,648
273,195,157
273,195,157
2,352,081,659
2,352,081,659
-553,705
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
1.000
0.917
0.842
0.772
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!

Flujo de caja privado (A - B - C )
Tasa de descuento
1
#REF!
2
#REF!
3
#REF!
0.09
VP de los flujos
VAN
TIR
553,705
#REF!
#REF!
ANALISIS DE RIESGO

30%
8%
8%
50%
10%
10%
20%
6%
4%

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
6%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.30
0.80
1.00
0
30
80
29
79
99

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
4%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.3
0.8
1
0
30
80
29
79
99
0
-5,537,052
0
-5,537,052
1
-1,963,610
-263,066,648
-265,030,257
2
-967,155
-273,195,157
-274,162,312
3
-973,213
-2,352,081,659
-2,353,054,871
COSTOS
Inversin
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N25
ANALISIS DE RIESGO A PRECIOS PRIVADOS - ALTERNATIVA N1
4
#REF!
5
#REF!
6
#REF!
7
#REF!
8
#REF!
9
#REF!
10
#REF!
975,444
947,709
719,109
724,305
730,175
735,707
687,726
2,566,635,504
2,566,635,504
2,628,163,885
2,628,163,885
2,691,366,263
2,691,366,263
2,756,299,688
2,756,299,688
2,832,621,826
2,832,621,826
2,901,064,701
2,901,064,701
2,979,628,067
2,979,628,067
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
0.708
0.650
0.596
0.547
0.502
0.460
0.422
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
4
-975,444
-2,566,635,504
-2,567,610,948
5
-947,709
-2,628,163,885
-2,629,111,594
6
-719,109
-2,691,366,263
-2,692,085,373
7
-724,305
-2,756,299,688
-2,757,023,993
8
-730,175
-2,832,621,826
-2,833,352,000
9
-735,707
-2,901,064,701
-2,901,800,409
10
-687,726
-2,979,628,067
-2,980,315,793
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

11
#REF!
Consorcio V B
12
#REF!
13
#REF!
14
#REF!
15
#REF!
16
#REF!
1,759,730
741,465
705,935
631,333
631,698
631,698
3,048,202,925
3,048,202,925
3,118,753,117
3,118,753,117
3,191,275,508
3,191,275,508
3,265,874,531
3,265,874,531
3,342,763,174
3,342,763,174
3,421,781,696
3,421,781,696
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
0.388
0.356
0.326
0.299
0.275
0.252
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
#REF!
11
-1,759,730
-3,048,202,925
-3,049,962,655
12
-741,465
-3,118,753,117
-3,119,494,582
13
-705,935
-3,191,275,508
-3,191,981,443
14
-631,333
-3,265,874,531
-3,266,505,864
15
-631,698
-3,342,763,174
-3,343,394,872
16
-631,698
-3,421,781,696
-3,422,413,394
Febrero - 2007


0
0
A. Total de Beneficios
Flujo de caja social (A - B - C )
Tasa de descuento
1
68,438,388
2
74,103,182
3
75,872,719
61,142,318
226,740
946,638
1,595,681
0
0
6,230,495
6,230,495
6,862,584
6,862,584
7,036,106
7,036,106
-61,142,318
61,981,154
66,293,960
67,240,932
1.000
0.877
0.769
0.675
54,369,433
51,011,049
45,385,714
0.14
VP de los flujos
VAN
TIR
61,142,318
393,423,698
105.8%
ANALISIS DE RIESGO

30%
8%
8%
50%
10%
10%
20%
6%
4%

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
6%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.30
0.80
1.00
0
30
80
29
79
99

% DE INCREMENTO
Distribucin de
Probabilidad
Probabilidad
Acumulada
8%
10%
4%
0.30
0.50
0.20
0.3
0.8
1
0
30
80
29
79
99
0
-61,142,318
0
-61,142,318
1
-226,740
-6,230,495
-6,457,235
2
-946,638
-6,862,584
-7,809,223
3
-1,595,681
-7,036,106
-8,631,787
COSTOS
Inversin
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

Cuadro N27
ANALISIS DE RIESGO A PRECIOS SOCIALES - ALTERNATIVA N1
4
77,691,048
5
79,558,169
6
81,478,962
7
83,453,427
8
85,483,189
9
87,574,755
10
89,724,873
140,295
2,604,673
2,668,443
2,256,060
300,430
3,036,895
1,794,078
7,215,169
7,215,169
7,398,561
7,398,561
7,616,416
7,616,416
7,810,199
7,810,199
8,010,043
8,010,043
8,215,775
8,215,775
8,426,702
8,426,702
70,335,584
69,554,935
71,194,103
73,387,168
77,172,716
76,322,085
79,504,092
0.592
0.519
0.456
0.400
0.351
0.308
0.270
41,644,312
36,124,654
32,435,076
29,328,251
27,053,595
23,469,647
21,445,737
4
-140,295
-7,215,169
-7,355,464
5
-2,604,673
-7,398,561
-10,003,234
6
-2,668,443
-7,616,416
-10,284,859
7
-2,256,060
-7,810,199
-10,066,259
8
-300,430
-8,010,043
-8,310,473
9
-3,036,895
-8,215,775
-11,252,670
10
-1,794,078
-8,426,702
-10,220,780
Consorcio V B
Febrero - 2007

Consorcio V B
11
91,936,793
12
94,215,397
13
96,563,936
14
98,982,411
15
101,472,449
16
104,043,807
547,010
2,090,257
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
8,426,702
82,963,082
83,698,438
88,137,234
90,555,709
93,045,747
95,617,105
0.237
0.208
0.182
0.160
0.140
0.123
19,630,507
17,372,373
16,047,092
14,462,651
13,035,382
11,750,544
11
-547,010
-8,426,702
-8,973,712
12
-2,090,257
-8,426,702
-10,516,959
13
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
14
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
15
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
16
0
-8,426,702
-8,426,702
Febrero - 2007

Demanda Ventanilla

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Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

para el Macro Proyecto Pachacutec del Distrito de Ventanilla

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE AGUA POTABLE

CONEXIONES DE AGUA POTABLE

CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/da)

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

Cuadro de Oferta Demanda Volumen de Almacenamiento

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Estudio de Factibilidad Mejoramiento y Ampliacin del Sistema

Caudal Promedio Desage ( Qpd lps ) por Area de

Estudio de Factibilidad Mejoramiento y Ampliacin del Sistema

dio Desage ( Qpd lps ) por Area de Drenaje

Estudio de Factibilidad Mejoramiento y Ampliacin del Sistema

Cuadro de Demanda de Volumen de Almacenamie

01, 02, 03 y 04 Qp (lps)

Sector 02 y 03 Area (Ha)

Estudio de Factibilidad Mejoramiento y Ampliacin del Sistema

nda de Volumen de Almacenamiento por Sectores

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE

CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/da)

317.35 27,419,064 10,007,958

324.94 28,074,418 10,247,163

332.74 28,748,656 10,493,260

340.78 29,443,821 10,746,995

349.06 30,158,891 11,007,995

357.59 30,895,909 11,277,007

366.36 31,653,343 11,553,470

376.49 32,528,490 11,872,899

385.83 33,335,432 12,167,433

395.46 34,167,895 12,471,282

405.39 35,025,877 12,784,445

415.66 35,912,952 13,108,228

426.26 36,829,120 13,442,629

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

PROYECCION DE LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMA

CONSUMO DE AGUA (l/da)

(* ) OTROS MEDIOS se refiere a la utilizacin de letrinas, silos.

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

E LA DEMANDA DE DESAGUE DEL ESQUEMA

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

Cuadro de Oferta Demanda de Agua Potable (Situacin Con Proyecto)

Vol. Reg. (m3) Vol. Res. (m3)

Vol. Total (m3)

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

HOJA DE INGRESO DE DATOS

POBLACIN ACTUAL (habitantes)

b) Informacin de proyeccin de cobertura de los servicios

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

Ampliacin y Mejoramiento del Sistema de Agua Potable y Alcantarillado

c) Informacin de conexiones existentes al ao 2007 por categorias (celdas en amarillo)

DATOS DE CONSUMO POR CONEXIN SEGN CATEGORIAS

e) Parmetros de Diseo (celdas en amarillo)

Caudal Mximo Horario (Qmh = K2 * QP)

Caudal Promedio Desage (Qpd = K3 * Qp) K3 =

Caudal Desage (Qd = K3 * Qmh, Qd = K2 * Qpd)

Consorcio Macro Proyecto Ingenieros

d) Informacin de consumos percapita por conexion (celdas en amarillo)