Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Investors are always on the lookout for timely and less traditional indicators on the economy. And one such
source of information is the monthly data on airline activity produced by the governments transport statistician.
Produced by Commonwealth Research based on information available at the time of publishing. We believe that the information in this report is correct and any opinions, conclusions or
recommendations are reasonably held or made as at the time of its compilation, but no warranty is made as to accuracy, reliability or completeness. To the extent permitted by law, neither
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 nor any of its subsidiaries accept liability to any person for loss or damage arising from the use of this report.
The report has been prepared without taking account of the objectives, financial situation or needs of any particular individual. For this reason, any individual should, before acting on the information
in this report, consider the appropriateness of the information, having regard to the individuals objectives, financial situation and needs and, if necessary, seek appropriate professional advice. In the
case of certain securities Commonwealth Bank of Australia is or may be the only market maker.
This report is approved and distributed in Australia by Commonwealth Securities Limited ABN 60 067 254 399 a wholly owned but not guaranteed subsidiary of Commonwealth Bank of Australia.
This report is approved and distributed in the UK by Commonwealth Bank of Australia incorporated in Australia with limited liability. Registered in England No. BR250 and regulated in the UK by the
Financial Conduct Authority (FCA). This report does not purport to be a complete statement or summary. For the purpose of the FCA rules, this report and related services are not intended for
private customers and are not available to them.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia and its subsidiaries have effected or may effect transactions for their own account in any investments or related investments referred to in this report.
At the same time, passenger numbers on the key SydneyMelbourne route have been rising while at the same time
airlines have been able to lift airfares.
The number of passengers carried between Sydney and Melbourne in July was 752,993 a record for any July
month and up 7.5 per cent over the year.
BITRE also report: It was followed by Brisbane Sydney with 406,136 passengers (up 3.4 per cent) and
Brisbane Melbourne with 307,903 passengers (up 4.2 per cent).
Further BITRE note: There were 5.38 million passengers carried on Australian domestic commercial aviation
(including charter operations) in July 2015, an increase of 1.8 per cent on July 2014. For the month of July 2015
there were 60,246 aircraft trips, a decrease of 0.2 per cent compared with July 2014.
Airfares
BITRE report that smoothed (13-month moving average) business class airfares were up 3.4 per cent on a year
ago in September. Best discount fares were up by 11.7 per cent with restricted economy fares up 7.2 per cent.
September 28 2015
In real terms, airfares are still relatively low with discount fares around 30-35 per cent cheaper than the base
level of the index set 12 years ago. And all airfares are cheaper in nominal terms than seven years ago.
The Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics (BITRE) releases regular aviation data. The
BITRE releases the Australian Domestic Airline Activity publication each month as well as the Domestic Air
Fares publication. The data provides insights on airline activity as well as trends in the broader Australian
economy. If more people are flying, then it suggests businesses are more active and/or consumers are more
confident.
No single indicator can define how the economy is doing. Investors need to track a raft of traditional and less
mainstream indicators. Over time there has been a good link between changes in aircraft load factors and
economic activity. Load factors are improving despite higher airfares, suggesting a modest improvement in the
tone of the economy.
Passenger numbers on the key Sydney-Melbourne route continue to hit record highs. The key airline activity
indicators for this route need to be watched carefully given its importance to overall business activity.
Airlines seem to be well in touch with conditions, lifting airfares without a significant degradation in passenger
numbers and able to lift load factors on planes (operational efficiency).
September 28 2015