Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Initiating Coverage
Sino-Forest Initiating Coverage at Outperform; Welcome to the Plantation S. Atkinson
Industry/Macro Comments
T. Robson /
Materials - Metals & Mining Iron Ore Miners: Potential Impact of +95% Prices
D. Radclyffe
Quantitative Analysis Relative Strength Filter — Justification Needed M. Steele
Quantitative Analysis Market Elements M. Steele
Economic Research A.M. Notes Economics
Disclosure Statements
To view important Disclosure Statements go to http://research-ca.bmocapitalmarkets.com/Company_Disclosure_Public.asp
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
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Artis REIT (AX.UN) Company presentation in Chicago. Armin Martens (President & CEO) and Jim Green (CFO).
Mike Vinciquerra
(Exchanges & Discount Brokers Marketing in Boston
Analyst)
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in Chicago
Agencies Analyst)
Economics/Industry Data
Time Data Period BMO Capital Previous Consensus
Markets Estimate Period
08:15 am U.S. ADP National Employment Report Mar. (e) +30,000 -20,000 +40,000
09:45 am U.S. Chicago PMI Mar. (e) 60.0 62.6 61.0
10:00 am U.S. Factory Orders Feb. (e) +0.2% +2.3%
Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in the Mid-Atlantic region Apr. 1
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)
Dan Salmon
(Marketing Services & Advertising Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 5
Agencies Analyst)
Wayne Hood
Marketing in New York Apr. 5-6
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)
Andrew Kaip
Marketing in Boston & New York Apr. 5-7
(Precious Metals & Mining Analyst)
Company presentation in Toronto. Bob Bell (President & CEO) and Candace
INV Metals (INV) Apr. 6
MacGibbon (CFO).
BMO Capital Markets Calendar of Events
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 6
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Meredith Bandy
Marketing in Boston Apr. 6
(Coal Analyst)
Connie Maneaty
(Personal Care & Household Products Marketing in Richmond & Atlanta Apr. 6
Analyst)
Company presentation in Boston & New York. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 6-9
(Director, IR).
Joanne Wuensch
(Medical Technology & Devices Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 7
Research Analyst)
Karine MacIndoe
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 7
(Real Estate & REITs Analyst)
Claude Proulx
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 7-8
(Airlines & Special Situations Analyst)
Company presentation in Winnipeg & Vancouver. Tom Schwartz (President & CEO)
Cap REIT (CAR.UN) Apr. 7-8
and Richard Smith (CFO).
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Winnipeg Apr. 8
Analyst)
Alan Laws
Marketing in New York & Connecticut Apr. 8-9
(Oil Services Analyst)
Christopher Brown
(Oil & Gas International Producers Marketing in Toronto Apr. 9
Analyst)
Carl Kirst
Marketing in Boston Apr. 12
(North American Pipeline Analyst)
Wayne Hood
Marketing in Europe Apr. 12-14
(Broadline Retailing Analyst)
Company presentation in Texas, L.A. & San Francisco. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne
Gammon Gold (GAM) Apr. 12-14
Day (Director, IR).
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-15
Allen Todd (VP, IR).
Company presentation in Europe. Kevin Crutchfield (CEO), Frank Wood (CFO) and
Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) Apr. 12-16
Allen Todd (VP, Investor Relations).
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Toronto Apr. 13-15
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Montreal Apr. 14
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Company presentation in the Mid-Atlantic. Don Mulligan (CFO) and Kristen S. Wenker
General Mills (GIS) Apr. 14
(VP, Investor Relations).
Carl Kirst
Marketing in the Mid-West Apr. 14-15
(North American Pipeline Analyst)
Jim Byrne
Marketing in Vancouver Apr. 15
(Integrated Oils & Refiners Analyst)
Jeffrey Logsdon
Marketing in Boston Apr. 15-16
(Entertainment & Gaming Analyst)
Gammon Gold (GAM) Company presentation in Toronto. Scott Perry (CFO) and Anne Day (Director, IR). Apr. 16
Randy Ollenberger
(Oil & Gas Producers & Integrated Oils Marketing in Montreal Apr. 16
Analyst)
Gordon Tait
Marketing in Toronto Apr. 20-21
(Royalty & Income Trusts Analyst)
Company presentation in Europe. John A. McCluskey (President and CEO) and Jeremy
Alamos Gold (AGI) Apr. 21
Link (Investor Relations Manager).
John Morris
Marketing in the Pacific Northwest Apr. 21
(Apparel Retail Analyst)
Jason Zhang
Marketing in Boston Apr. 27
(Healthcare - Biotech Analyst)
If you are interested in any of the above events, please contact your BMO Capital Markets Institutional Equity/Fixed Income salesperson, or the following:
Toronto Events: Laura Heuff 416-359-5816
Montreal Events: Marjorie Heppell at 514-286-7231
Western Canada Events: Jennifer Crombie 604-443-1452
U.S. Events: Angela Dong 212-702-1969
Europe Events: Hannah Pead 44-207-246- 5418
The Company 0
Volume (mln)
0.0
50 50
China is the world's largest importer of logs, wastepaper and pulp. Sino-Forest
is the leading commercial forest plantation owner in China with 512,000 0 0
hectares under management and master agreements to expand to 1.4 million 500
TRE Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
500
hectares at capped prices. The company has developed its expertise in seedling
technology and intensive silviculture giving it a competitive advantage.
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 29, 2010
Forecasts
(FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
We are expecting improving results as Sino-Forest transitions its business to fast EPS $1.33 $1.34 $1.52 $1.82
P/E 12.5x 10.5x
growing plantations. Chinese log prices were up 10% in Q4/09. Management
expects a 5–10% increase in price in 2010. We have conservatively assumed an CFPS $2.82 $2.90 $3.72 $4.25
P/CFPS 5.1x 4.5x
annual 2% price increase over the next few years.
EV/EBITDA 6.4x 5.1x 4.1x 3.4x
ROE 14% 13% 13% 14%
Valuation Gross Margin
FCF
41%
-$205
36%
-$259
36%
-$299
36%
$247
Based on our DCF analysis using a 13.5% discount factor, our 12-month target Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
price is $32.00. If we adjust EBITDA to include the cost of depletion of assets 2008A $0.09 $0.24 $0.49 $0.51
2009A $0.15 $0.24 $0.48 $0.46
as trees are harvested, Sino-Forest trades at 7x 2011E EV/EBITDA. Based on 2010E $0.15 $0.21 $0.50 $0.67
our forecast, Weyerhaeuser is trading at a 2011E EV/EBITDA of 17x and Plum Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
Creek is trading at 22x. Excluding timberland acquisitions, free cash flow over Book Value $11.66 Price/Book 1.6x
Shares O/S (mm) 242.1 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $4,612
the next two years are expected to average about $3.75/share for a free cash Float O/S (mm) 242.1 Float Cap ($mm) $4,612
Wkly Vol (000s) 4,188 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $68.4
flow yield of 19.5%. Net Debt ($mm) $23.0 Next Rep. Date April (E)
Notes: Share price, target & capitalization in C$, all other values in
US$
Recommendation Major Shareholders: Paulson & Co. Inc. (18%), Davis Selected
Advisers, L.P. (13%),
Over the past four years, Sino-Forest achieved compound average annual First Call Mean Estimates: SINO-FOREST CORP (US$) 2010E:
$1.54; 2011E: $1.93
growth rates of 38% in revenue, 25% in diluted EPS and 51% in cash flow from
operations. We are initiating coverage of Sino-Forest with an Outperform rating.
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 10.
(Back to Index)
March 31, 2010
Securities Info
Outlook and Model Before the Call Price (30-Mar) $74.91 Target Price $88
52-Wk High/Low $88/$43 Dividend --
Mkt Cap (mm) $41,725 Yield --
Shs O/S (mm, BASIC) 557.0 Float O/S (mm) 557.0
Event Options O/S (mm) na ADVol (30-day, 000s) 12,172
RIMM reports FY4Q earning Wednesday after market close with a call to Price Performance
follow at 5:00 p.m. EDT. Dial-in: 800-814-4859. No pass code required. Price: High,Low,Close(US$)
RESEARCH IN MOTIO N LTD (RIMM)
Relative to S&P 500
160 500
Replay: 416-640-1917. Pass code: 4177292 140
450
400
120
Impact
350
100
300
80
Positive. We recently upgraded RIMM to OUTPERFORM as we believe 60
250
200
competitive concerns are overblown and positive channels checks. We 40 150
20
expect RIMM to report above-consensus revenue and EPS, driven by higher 100
0 50
units and stronger-than-expected sales of the 9700. We believe RIMM had 1000
Volume (mln)
1000
another record international quarter with strong sales of both the 8520 and 500 500
9700. Western Europe, Latin America and Southeast Asia were all strong for 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
RIMM internationally. We expect several product announcements from the La st Data Poin t: March 29, 2010
upcoming WES, if not sooner, including availability of a WebKit browser, a Valuation/Financial D ata
slider touch/qwerty device, and the Tour 2. (FY-Feb.) 2008A 200 9A 2010E 2 011E
EPS Pro Forma $2.26 $3.44 $4.43 $5.40
P/E 16.9x 13.9x
Forecasts First Call Cons.
EPS GAAP $2.26 $3.32
$4.37
$4.37
$5.10
$5.40
We model Q4FY10 revenue $4.5B and EPS of $1.32, above consensus of FCF $2.16 $1.08 $3.48 $4.40
P/FCF 21.5x 17.0x
$4.3B and $1.28. We estimate 11.5M units, 4.75M net adds and ASP of EBITDA ($mm) $1,839 $2,918 $3,851 $4,525
EV/EBITDA 10.4x 8.9x
$321.77, above consensus of 11M units, 4.6M and $319 ASP. For the May Rev. ($mm) $6,009 $11,065 $15,385 $19,074
quarter we model revenues of $4.6B and EPS of $1.35 above consensus of EV/Rev 2.6x 2.1x
Quarterly EPS 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
$4.3B and $1.23. We estimate 11.9M units, 4.9M net adds and ASP of
2009A $0.84 $0.86 $0.83 $0.90
$315.33 above consensus of 11.2M units, 4.5M net adds and $314 ASP. 2010E $0.98A $1.03A $1.10A $1.32
Balance Sheet Data (11/30/09)
Net Debt ($mm) -$1,663 TotalDebt/EBITDA nm
Valuation Total Debt ($mm)
Net Debt/Cap.
$0
nm
EBITDA/IntExp
Price/Book
na
6.1x
Our price target of $88 is based on 15x our CY2011 EPS estimate. Notes: All values in US$.
Source: BMO Capital Markets estimates, Bloomberg, FactSet, Global
Insight, Reuters, and Thomson Financial.
Recommendation
We rate RIMM shares OUTPERFORM.
Please refer to pages 6 to 8 for Important Disclosures, including the Analyst's Certification.
Back to Index
15 0
Event
-2
UUU has completed the issuance of C$260M in convertible debentures. BMO 10
0 -6
Impact 400
Volume (mln)
400
Neutral. The cash raised has a net neutral impact on UUU’s NPV/share and 200 200
EPS. Post the financing, UUU has an estimated cash balance of US$660M, of 0 0
UUU Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
400 400
which BMO estimates that US$550M is uncommitted and available for
acquisitions of exploration/development companies or projects. 200 200
0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Forecasts Last Data Point: March 29, 2010
BMO forecasts sales of 6.0Mlb U3O8 in 2010 and 7.6Mlb in 2011, growing to (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
10.6Mlb by 2014. EPS -$5.24 -$0.37 $0.00 $0.06
P/E na 43.8x
BMO estimates UUU to have an NPV of C$1.77/share. U Price (US$/lb) $49.02 $46.99 $45.03 $49.70
U Sales (Mlb U3O8) 3.0 3.2 6.0 7.6
Kazakh Tenge (US$) $120 $153 $165 $175
Recommendation EV/EBITDA 10.7x 17.2x 14.0x 7.5x
Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
A Market Perform rating and C$3.50 target price values UUU in line with 2008A -$0.25 -$0.15 -$4.30 -$0.54
uranium producers in the context of the BMO Research position that the 2009A $0.13 -$0.56 -$0.03 $0.10
2010E $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
uranium market has entered a period of oversupply. Unclear use of proceeds for
Dividend $0.00 Yield 0.0%
the convertible debt issue appears to have weighed on the UUU share price, Book Value $2.52 Price/Book 1.0x
which has underperformed its peer group in recent weeks. UUU is currently Shares O/S (mm) 587.4 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $1,592
Float O/S (mm) 587.4 Float Cap ($mm) $1,592
trading at 1.5x NPV versus a producer average of 1.9x NPV. Wkly Vol (000s) 24,465 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $69.0
Net Debt ($mm) $63.6 Next Rep. Date May (E)
Notes: Share, target price & cap. in C$, all others in US$; Quart. do
not sum to Ann. due to share count and rounding
Major Shareholders: Widely held
First Call Mean Estimates: URANIUM ONE INC (US$) 2009E: -
$0.05; 2010E: $0.13; 2011E: $0.24
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Capital Markets Ltd., authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in
the UK. The analyst(s) is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's
Certification, please refer to pages 4 to 6.
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Fund
(YLO.UN-TSX) Tim Casey, CFA
BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc.
Stock Rating: Market Perform (416) 359-4860
Industry Rating: Market Perform Tim.Casey@bmo.com
Assoc: David Fidler
15 0.9
0.8
Event 10 0.7
0.6
Acquisition of Canpages. 5
0.5
0 0.4
Impact 100
Volume (mln)
100
Neutral. The acquisition of Canpages is strategically sound in that in removes a 50 50
move the dial. We view regulatory risk as low, given the approval of 0 0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
SuperPages in 2005. Last Data Point: March 29, 2010
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 8.
Back to Index
Target Price Reduced to C$10 on Disappointing Price (30-Mar) $7.88 52-Week High $13.19
Target Price $10.00 52-Week Low $6.61
Guidance for 2010–2012 Gammon Gold Inc. (GAM)
Price: High,Low,Close
Event 20 20
20 20
Impact
0 0
Negative. BMO now expects Gammon to produce 172koz gold and 6.4Moz 400
GAM Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
400
silver at total cash costs of US$470/oz AuEq in 2010, rising to 190koz gold and
200 200
7.7Moz silver at US$462/oz AuEq by 2012, near the upper end of Gammon’s
0 0
guidance range. 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Last Data Point: March 29, 2010
US$0.58/share for 2011 and 51% to US$0.33/share for 2012. CFPS $0.56 $0.56 $0.95 $1.05
P/CFPS 8.2x 7.4x
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 10.
Back to Index
20 20
Event 15 15
10 10
Paramount entered into an agreement to acquire oil and natural gas assets in the
5 5
Edson area of west central Alberta from Crew Energy Inc. for $126 million. The
0 0
transaction will have an effective date of January 1, 2010 and is expected to Volume (mln)
4 4
close on or about April 1, 2010. While we were under a research restriction, the
2 2
trust announced Q4/09 results and plans to convert to a corporation. 0 0
PMT.UN Relative to S&P/TSX Comp TRI
200 200
Following the conversion it is anticipated that a monthly dividend of $0.05 per Annual Dist. $0.60 Yield 12.7%
Book Value $2.25 Price/Book 2.1x
trust unit per month will be paid, on par with Paramount’s current distribution Units O/S (mm) 138.3 Mkt. Cap ($mm) $656
Float O/S (mm) 110.5 Float Cap ($mm) $524
policy. On an after-tax basis, all things being equal, Canadian taxable investors Wkly Vol (000s) 1,893 Wkly $ Vol (mm) $8.9
Net Debt ($mm) $511.6 Next Rep. Date May (E)
should be better off post-conversion since they can take advantage of the
Notes: All values in C$; Net debt and units O/S at Q4/09 adj. for
dividend tax credit. Even though Paramount’s units/shares currently offer a acquisitions and crystallized hedging gain
prospective 12% yield, until we see a recovery in natural gas prices, we believe Major Unitholders: Management and Directors (20%)
First Call Mean Estimates: PARAMOUNT ENERGY TRUST (C$)
the trust’s trading price may remain relatively range bound. We continue to rate 2010E: -$0.29; 2011E: -$0.50
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 10 to 12.
Back to Index
project EBITDA that was US$7.8 million below our estimates and significant 6 -3
Volume (mln)
non-recurring costs associated with the internalization of management and the 10 10
5 5
conversion to a traditional common share structure. For example, during 2009
0 0
Atlantic Power recorded management and administrative expenses of US$26 ATP Relative to S&P/TSX Comp
200 200
million vs. US$10 million in 2008.
100 100
Impact 0 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 0
2008 2009
Negative. In addition to reporting cash flow that was below expectations, Last Data Point: March 29, 2010
Atlantic Power has guided for lower cash flow in 2010 and 2011. Guidance (FY-Dec.) 2008A 2009A 2010E 2011E
EPS $1.81 -$0.30 $0.54 $0.57
suggests that project distributions in 2010 and 2011 will decline by P/E 22.8x 21.6x
approximately US$23–30 million compared to 2009 and the company is
CFPS $1.55 $0.70 $1.56 $1.60
forecasting a payout ratio of near 100% for the years 2010–2011. 7.1x 7.1x
to our estimates are set out herein. Our CFPS estimates decrease to US$1.56 Quarterly EPS Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2008A $0.09 -$0.65 $1.08 $1.30
from US$1.73 in 2010 and to US$1.60 from US$1.73 in 2011. 2009A -$0.53 $0.32 $0.39 -$0.49
2010E $0.08 $0.10 $0.22 $0.13
Underperform.
Changes Annual EPS Quarterly EPS
2010E $0.71 to $0.54 Q1/10E $0.09 to $0.08
2011E $0.70 to $0.57 Q2/10E $0.13 to $0.10
Q3/10E $0.15 to $0.22
Q4/10E $0.34 to $0.13
This report was prepared by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s) under
FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 6 to 8.
Back to Index
Pilbara Blend Fines US$/wt 113.80 113.80 113.80 113.80 77.27 59.11
Pilbara Blend Fines US¢/dmtu 189.2 189.2 189.2 189.2 128.4 98.3
Vale SSF US¢/dmtu 166.6 166.6 166.6 166.6 113.1 86.5
Tubarao BF Pellets US¢/dmtu 239.1 239.1 239.1 239.1 162.3 133.1
Iron Ore Fines % Change 95.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -32.1% -23.5%
Iron Ore Lump % Change 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -32.1% -20.5%
Iron Pellets % Change 110.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% -32.1% -18.0%
Source: BMO Capital Markets
This report was prepared in part by analysts employed by a Canadian affiliate, BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and a UK affiliate, BMO Capital Markets
Ltd., authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK, and who are not registered as research analysts under FINRA rules.
For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 15 to 16.
Back to Index
March 31, 2010
Relative Strength Filter Research Comment
Quantitative/Technical Research
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Justification Needed
CLICK HERE for a printer friendly version of this report including research disclosures.
• It is another quiet morning: • If a company is underperforming the market, and sector, and is in a weak
o the FX market is stable, industry (where most stocks are doing the same), you ought to justify why you
own it (this is also a good filter for shorts). This screen can be done on the
o bonds and equities snooze, and market and on your portfolio at a click of a mouse.
o metals are mixed.
• In Figures 1-3 we carve out the top 10 of U.S., Canadian and Global lists. The
• We will use this session to highlight entire contents of the lists are found at the links below.
another one of our primary screens.
Figure 1: U.S. Incorporated – Underperforming Market & Sector in Weak Groups – See Full List
Figure 2: Canadian Incorporated – Underperforming Market & Sector in Weak Groups – See Full List
Figure 3: Global Stocks – Underperforming Market & Sector in Weak Groups – See Full List
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 2 to 3.
Back to Index
Mark Steele
(416) 359-4641
mark.steele@bmo.com
Assoc: Tiberiu Stoichita
Equity markets snoozed; no global sector moved more than ±0.5%. Major currency crosses ended mixed against the greenback; Euro
currencies were hurt by Greek sentiment; the British Pound rallied
Most bond benchmarks were quiet, too (U.S. 10-year treasuries are (third session now) back above the 1.5 mark.
forming a tight pennant); Greek, Portuguese, and Spanish spreads
off of Germany widened. Base metals led an “industrial” commodity rally, the LMEX has risen
for four consecutive sessions; precious metals tracked the greenback.
Levels*
Currencies (USD per) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmark Equity Indices & Sentiment
Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg Symbol H/L Level Chg Symbol H/L Level %Chg
DXY 81.48 0.2% DJ UBS 132.67 0.5% U.S. 3.86 -0.00 S&P 1200 1,347 -0.0%
EUR 1.3413 -0.5% WTI Oil 82.40 0.3% Canada 3.59 0.01 S&P 500 1,173 0.0%
CHF 0.9374 -0.4% NMX Gas 3.99 3.9% Germany 3.11 -0.02 S&P/TSX 12,044 0.1%
GBP 1.5066 0.5% Gold 1,103.4 -0.6% France 3.44 -0.02 Euro STOXX 2,940 -0.3%
JPYx10 0.1077 -0.5% Silver 17.32 -0.5% Switzerland 1.91 -0.00 FTSE 100 5,672 -0.7%
CAD 0.9807 0.1% Platinum 1,621.8 -0.4% Italy L 3.90 -0.02 Hang Seng 21,375 0.6%
AUD 0.9187 0.1% Palladium 471.5 -0.2% Spain 3.82 -0.01 Topix H 980 1.4%
NZD 0.7097 0.0% CMX Cu H 354.50 0.4% Greece 6.44 0.15 S&P/ASX 4,917 0.4%
BRL 0.5572 0.0% LME Al 3m 1.04 0.5% U.K. 3.99 0.02 Shang/Shen 3,367 0.2%
MXNx10 H 0.8072 0.4% LME Ni 3m H 11.05 1.5% Australia 5.80 0.00 Sensex30 17,590 -0.7%
ZAR 0.1357 0.5% LME Zn 3m 1.08 2.1% Hong Kong 2.76 0.05 CDX IG 5Yr 86.38 1.3%
KRWx10 0.8839 -0.1% Lumber 282.90 1.0% India 7.74 -0.10 TRIN 1.48 44%
SGD 0.7144 -0.1% Corn 354.50 -0.7% Japan 1.40 -0.01 VIX 17.13 -2.6%
Moves
Currencies (spot) Commodities Government 10- Yr Benchmarks Equity Indices
GBP NMX Gas India Topix
ZAR LME Zn 3m Germany
Hang Seng
MXN LME Ni 3m Italy
1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 0.20 0.10 0.00 -0.10 -0.20 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%
Sectors
S&P Global 1200 S&P Europe 350 S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Info Tech Cons Stap Info Tech Energy
0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5%
Source for all data and graphics in this publication: BMO Capital Markets, Bloomberg, Thomson
* H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- week High/Low; Colour codes are inverted for bond and sentiment indications
This report was prepared in part by an analyst(s) employed by BMO Nesbitt Burns Inc., and who is (are) not registered as a research analyst(s)
under FINRA rules. For disclosure statements, including the Analyst's Certification, please refer to pages 8 to 9.
Market Elements
Daily Charts
3-Month View with 50- and 26-Day Moving Averages
It seems all the major news sources wanted to write about uranium today: Interest from China in the WSJ; Time to invest in uranium? - FT; May have
‘Hyper’ Price Run - Bloomberg; See commodity charts and Uranium Leveraged Relative Strength Profiles (it’s too early) –BMO Charts
“Dollar” 10-year bonds yields (rising) back to diverging with European yields (falling)
USD back to advancing vs. yen, as U.S. 2-year yield has first rise in three sessions
S&P 500
S&P/TSX Composite
S&P Global 1200 ex U.S. & Canada S&P 500 S&P/TSX Composite
Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol
TICKER % Chg
Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol % Chg
TICKER Chg Name
SECURITY_NAME Symbol Chg
TICKER % Chg
Energy AMEC PLC AMEC LN 3.2% FMC Technologies Inc FTI 3.8% Suncor Energy Inc SU 3.0%
TonenGeneral Sekiyu KK 5012 JP 2.9% Rowan Cos Inc RDC 1.8% Canadian Oil Sands Trust COS-U 2.8%
PetroChina Co Ltd 857 HK 1.7% Hess Corp HES 1.7% Cenovus Energy Inc CVE 2.7%
Tullow Oil PLC TLW LN -1.3% Southwestern Energy Co SWN -1.3% Inter Pipeline Fund IPL-U -1.0%
Cairn Energy PLC CNE LN -2.1% Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG -1.3% PetroBakken Energy Ltd PBN -1.4%
Technip SA
SECURITY_NAME TEC FP
TICKER -2.4%
Chg Massey Energy Co
SECURITY_NAME MEE
TICKER -2.4%
Chg Pacific Rubiales Energy Corp
SECURITY_NAME PRE
TICKER -1.5%
Chg
Materials JSR Corp 4185 JP 4.1% FMC Corp FMC 1.6% Consolidated Thompson Iron Min CLM 5.1%
Mitsubishi Chemical Holdings C 4188 JP 3.9% Praxair Inc PX 1.1% Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Inco LIF-U 4.6%
Nippon Paper Group Inc 3893 JP 3.9% Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold FCX 0.9% Lundin Mining Corp LUN 3.6%
Yamana Gold Inc YRI CN -2.4% Cliffs Natural Resources Inc CLF -2.2% Jaguar Mining Inc JAG -4.1%
Lonmin PLC LMI LN -2.6% Allegheny Technologies Inc ATI -2.3% First Quantum Minerals Ltd FM -7.1%
ThyssenKrupp AG
SECURITY_NAME TKA GR
TICKER -2.7%
Chg Titanium Metals Corp
SECURITY_NAME TIE -2.6%
TICKER Chg Gammon Gold Inc
SECURITY_NAME GAM
TICKER -8.8%
Chg
Industrials Mitsubishi Corp 8058 JP 3.9% Danaher Corp DHR 4.5% Bombardier Inc BBD/B 1.8%
Toppan Printing Co Ltd 7911 JP 2.6% 3M Co MMM 3.6% Stantec Inc STN 1.6%
East Japan Railway Co 9020 JP 2.6% First Solar Inc FSLR 2.4% TransForce Inc TFI 1.3%
British Airways PLC BAY LN -2.4% General Dynamics Corp GD -1.3% Transat AT Inc TRZ/B -1.2%
Hutchison Whampoa Ltd 13 HK -2.7% Cummins Inc CMI -1.5% IESI-BFC Ltd BIN -1.5%
Euro pean Aeronautic Defence an
SECURITY_NAME EAD FP
TICKER -2.8%
Chg Quanta
SECURISTeY rv_NAME
ic es Inc PWR -1.8%
TICKER Chg Aecon Group Inc
SECURITY_NAME ARE -1.5%
TICKER Chg
Cons Disc Esprit Holdings Ltd 330 HK 4.4% Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worl HOT 2.6% Reitmans Canada Ltd RET/A 7.9%
Yamada Denki Co Ltd 9831 JP 2.4% Macy's Inc M 2.2% Groupe Aeroplan Inc AER 1.0%
Nissan Motor Co Ltd 7201 JP 2.3% Discovery Communications Inc DISCA 1.9% Linamar Corp LNR 0.8%
Electrolux AB ELUXB SS -3.4% DR Horton Inc DHI -1.8% Gildan Activewear Inc GIL -0.4%
Cie Generale des Etablissement ML FP -3.5% Eastman Kodak Co EK -1.8% RONA Inc RON -0.5%
Valeo SA
SECURITY_NAME FR FP
TICKER -4.7%
Chg Ford Motor Co
SECURITY_NAME F -2.1%
TICKER Chg Tim Hortons Inc
SECURITY_NAME THI -0.8%
TICKER Chg
Cons Stap Nippon Meat Packers Inc 2282 JP 1.8% SUPERVALU Inc SVU 3.0% North West Co Fund NWF-U 1.2%
Aeon Co Ltd 8267 JP 1.7% McCormick & Co Inc/MD MKC 1.2% Saputo Inc SAP 0.6%
Unilever NV UNA NA 1.7% Brown-Forman Corp BF/B 1.1% Alimentation Couche Tard Inc ATD/B 0.3%
Kirin Holdings Co Ltd 2503 JP -0.7% Clorox Co CLX -0.4% Maple Leaf Foods Inc MFI -0.8%
George Weston Ltd WN CN -0.8% Hormel Foods Corp HRL -0.6% Loblaw Cos Ltd L -1.4%
Imperial Tobacco Group PLC
SECURITY_NAME IMT LN
TICKER -0.8%
Chg Coca- Cola Enterprises Inc
SECURITY_NAME CCE -1.0%
TICKER Chg Cott Corp
SECURITY_NAME BCB -2.8%
TICKER Chg
Health Care Actelion Ltd ATLN VX 1.1% CareFusion Corp CFN 3.0% CML Healthcare Income Fund CLC-U 1.5%
Astellas Pharma Inc 4503 JP 0.9% McKesson Corp MCK 2.3% Biovail Corp BVF 0.0%
Terumo Corp 4543 JP 0.6% Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc TMO 2.3% SXC Health Solutions Corp SXC -0.4%
Daiichi Sankyo Co Ltd 4568 JP -1.5% Biogen Idec Inc BIIB -1.2% MDS Inc MDS -1.0%
Shionogi & Co Ltd 4507 JP -1.6% Cephalon Inc CEPH -2.5%
Shire PLC
SECURITY_NAME SHP LN
TICKER -2.2%
Chg Tenet Healthcare Corp
SECURITY_NAME THC -2.6%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Financials Promise Co Ltd 8574 JP 8.1% E*Trade Financial Corp ETFC 4.4% Dundee Corp DC/A 1.4%
Shinsei Bank Ltd 8303 JP 4.5% Plum Creek Timber Co Inc PCL 1.8% CI Financial Corp CIX 0.9%
Resolution Ltd RSL LN 4.3% Ameriprise Financial Inc AMP 1.7% Davis & Henderson Income Fund DHF-U 0.9%
Commerzbank AG CBK GR -3.3% Capital One Financial Corp COF -1.7% IGM Financial Inc IGM -1.4%
Royal Bank of Scotland Group P RBS LN -3.4% ProLogis PLD -2.0% FirstService Corp FSV -1.9%
Alpha Bank AE
SECURITY_NAME ALPHA GA
TICKER -4.1%
Chg Citigroup Inc
SECURITY_NAME C -2.2%
TICKER Chg Boar dwalk Real Estate Investme
SECURITY_NAME BEI-U -2.2%
TICKER Chg
Technology Konica Minolta Holdings Inc 4902 JP 3.5% MEMC Electronic Materials Inc WFR 5.7% Celestica Inc CLS 0.4%
Keyence Corp 6861 JP 3.1% Red Hat Inc RHT 2.7% MacDonald Dettwiler & Associat MDA 0.3%
NEC Corp 6701 JP 2.9% Lexmark International Inc LXK 1.8% CGI Group Inc GIB/A 0.0%
STMicroelectronics NV STM IM -1.9% Western Union Co/The WU -1.1% Open Text Corp OTC -0.1%
Infineon Technologies AG IFX GR -2.7% Tellabs Inc TLAB -1.2% Research In Motion Ltd RIM -1.3%
AlcatUR
SEC el-Lucent/France
ITY_NAME ALU FP
TICKER -3.9%
Chg Western Digital Corp
SECURITY_NAME WDC -1.6%
TICKER Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Telecom Telekom Austria AG TKA AV 2.3% Verizon Communications Inc VZ 2.6% Rogers Communications Inc RCI/B 0.4%
NTT DoCoMo Inc 9437 JP 1.9% MetroPCS Communications Inc PCS 1.6% TELUS Corp T 0.3%
Chunghwa Telecom Co Ltd 2412 TT 1.3% Frontier Communications Corp FTR 0.8% Manitoba Telecom Services Inc MBT -0.0%
Telefonica SA TEF SM -1.1% Windstream Corp WIN -0.5% Bell Aliant Regional Communica BA-U -0.1%
Cable & Wireless Worldwide CW/ LN -1.2% Qwest Communications Internati Q -0.8% BCE Inc BCE -0.5%
Telstra Corp Ltd
SECURITY_NAME TLS AU
TICKER -1.3%
Chg AT&T Inc
SECURITY_NAME T
TICKER -2.1%
Chg SECURITY_NAME TICKER Chg
Utilities Osaka Gas Co Ltd 9532 JP 2.8% NRG Energy Inc NRG 2.4% Capital Power Income LP CPA-U 0.2%
Tokyo Gas Co Ltd 9531 JP 2.2% Pepco Holdings Inc POM 1.5% Emera Inc EMA 0.2%
Chubu Electric Power Co Inc 9502 JP 2.1% Northeast Utilities NU 1.1% Atlantic Power Corp ATP 0.2%
Gas Natural SDG SA GAS SM -0.7% Duke Energy Corp DUK -1.1% TransAlta Corp TA -0.4%
Cia Paranaense de Energia ELP US -0.9% AES Corp/The AES -1.5% Atco Ltd ACO/X -0.6%
Fortum OYJ FUM1V FH -1.0% FPL Group Inc FPL -1.9% Canadian Utilities Ltd CU -0.8%
H/L = at a new closing 52- wk High/Low; / = within 10% of the 52- wk High/Low; Blue = S&P/TSX 60 member, Italics = ETF, Bold = move of more than 5%
Economic Research
March 31, 2010
Research Comment
A.M. Notes
StatsCan will also release its “other” employment report today, the survey of payrolls and hours (similar to the establishment
survey). Since it’s for January, and the U.S. is releasing its March payroll survey on Friday, you can appreciate why it’s not a
gripper for the markets. Despite that wee timeliness issue, it still does act as a fact-check for the Labour Force Survey. It has spun
out consistent gains in the past four months, averaging 21,000, while the LFS reported average gains of 15k in that time (with two
big up months, and two down). The LFS reported a job gain of 43,000 in January.
Provies: Quebec unveiled its 2010 budget yesterday afternoon. The Province expects the deficit to widen slightly to $4.5 billion,
from a downwardly revised estimate of $4.3 billion in the fiscal year ending today. Borrowing requirements in the coming year will
total almost $13 billion, versus $15.5 bln in FY09/10. Quebec unveiled a number of revenue measures as well as spending restraint
to aim for a balanced budget within five years. Notably, the provincial sales tax rate will now climb another percentage point at the
start of 2012 to 9.5%, on top of the planned 1 point rise at the start of 2011. There will also be a dedicated health care tax (rising to
$200/adult by 2012), and a 1-cent per-year increase in fuel taxes. Robert Kavcic’s full write-up was circulated yesterday evening
and will be on our website this morning.
Last day of Q1: With just one session to go in March, it looks like it will be a solid month for the TSX and the Canadian dollar,
with both up just a little more than 3% to this point. That puts the C$ close to the top of the global leader board (also on a year-to-
date basis), while the TSX has trailed a bit behind most other major markets this month (the S&P 500 is up 6.2% in March, the
fourth best month in the past five years). But the big story in Canadian markets this month has arguably been the sell-off at the
short end of the bond market, which has seen the 2-year GoC bond yield vault up 47 bps since the end of February. A relentless
wave of stronger-than-expected domestic data has driven the sell-off, with today’s GDP report primed to pile on.
Did it seem like a long month? Today is the 23rd working day of March. Little-known factoid:
March is the only month of the year that can possibly have as many as 23 working days, and it
only happens when the month starts on a Monday, Tuesday, or Wednesday, and only when
Good Friday is in April. In other words, in a typical decade, maybe 4 months out of 120 will
have 23 work days. So, yes, perhaps it did seem like a long month---to give you a sense how
long, the first day of March was the day after Canada 3 USA 2 (OT).
From the other headlines: “Athabasca Oil Sands Corp. will make a $1.35-billion debut on the
Toronto Stock Exchange next week, among the largest Canadian initial public offerings ever.
The offering is almost twice as large as expected when it was announced earlier this year,
owing largely to strong interest from Asian institutional investors based on the endorsement of
Athabasca's major backer, PetroChina Co. Ltd. Athabasca will price the offer at $18 a share,
which is at the top end of estimates.” Globe and Mail (Link to Article)
“The head of National Bank of Canada says the industry watchdog is standing in the way of
higher dividends, making him the first senior banker to speak out against what has become a
growing concern for many investors. Since the financial crisis, the Office of the Superintendent
of Financial Institutions has been warning banks and insurance companies not to do anything
to jeopardize capital levels, such as boosting dividends or launching major acquisitions until
regulators worldwide can agree on a new set of rules for the industry. But after last year's
near-record bank profits, many investors are growing impatient with OSFI.” National Post
(Link to Article)
“Some of the world's biggest miners are forcing Asian buyers to change the way they purchase
several key commodities, a boon to producers but a move expected to increase prices
throughout the global economy. From potash to coking coal and now iron ore, several mining
companies have pushed through dramatic changes in how these products are priced and sold,
forcing users in countries such as China, Japan and India to pay more for specific resources.
The latest move came Tuesday when BHP Billiton Ltd. announced it was no longer negotiating
annual iron ore contracts with a “significant” number of Asian customers and will instead set
prices on a short-term basis.” Globe and Mail (Link to Article)
“Honda plans to restart a second shift and add more than 400 jobs at one of its Alliston
assembly operations early next year because of improving demand for some models. Honda of
Canada Manufacturing, the country's fourth biggest automaker, confirmed Tuesday it will
gradually hire new workers and recall some "contract associates" this summer for additional
production at its No. 2 plant.” Toronto Star (Link to Article)
unemployment, which has risen sharply over the past year...“If you’re out of work for six
months or a year, then you begin to lose your skills…You begin to become very unattractive to
employers, and it’s clearly a long-term negative and not just a short- term negative.”
In any event, the ADP national employment report on private sector payrolls is out at 8:15 am
ET and will be eyed warily since it won’t be distorted by the government’s census hiring. Its
reported 20k payrolls drop in February nearly matched the BLS’ reported 18k drop in private
sector payrolls during the same month, the smallest gap in well over two years. Of perhaps
more interest will be the breakdown of the results……between small (still cutting), medium
(now hiring) and large-sized (still cutting) firms, and between goods-producers, service-
providers, and manufacturing.
The manufacturing portion of the ADP’s survey showed a 3k increase in jobs in February, the
first since the recession began. This is one sector (albeit a smaller part of the U.S. economy)
that is helping drive the recovery, and we should see more evidence of that mid-morning, with
the release of the Chicago PMI and factory orders.
Backgrounders:
“Bonds Cap Epic Comeback: Investors flooded risky companies with money in March even as
the government prepares to shut down a key engine driving one of the greatest corporate-bond
rallies in history. A total $31.5 billion in new high-yield debt, otherwise known as junk bonds,
hit the market through Tuesday, exceeding the previous monthly record in November 2006.
Partly propelling the activity: The Federal Reserve's massive mortgage-buying program,
which comes to an end Wednesday. By buying $1.25 trillion of mortgage securities, the Fed
absorbed a flood of assets that otherwise would have needed buyers. That kept money in the
hands of investors, who went searching for something else to buy. The Fed's underpinning
encouraged investors to seek riskier, higher-yielding securities. A natural choice: corporate
bonds.” Wall Street Journal, page A1
“Obama to Open Offshore Areas to Oil Drilling for First Time: The Obama administration
is proposing to open vast expanses of water along the Atlantic coastline, the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and the north coast of Alaska to oil and natural gas drilling, much of it for the first
time, officials said Tuesday. The proposal — a compromise that will please oil companies and
domestic drilling advocates but anger some residents of affected states and many environmental
organizations — would end a longstanding moratorium on oil exploration along the East Coast
from the northern tip of Delaware to the central coast of Florida, covering 167 million acres of
ocean. Under the plan, the coastline from New Jersey northward would remain closed to all oil
and gas activity. So would the Pacific Coast, from Mexico to the Canadian border.” New York
Times, page A1
In Europe, there was a number of better-than-expected jobs-related data out morning. German
unemployment actually fell in March, with the 31k decline the fourth in a row (consensus had
expected an 8k increase), which helped trim the jobless rate a tick to 8.0%, the lowest in just
over a year. In Italy, the jobless rate also unexpectedly fell a tick to 8.5% in February, while
for the Euro region as a whole, the rate of joblessness rose 0.1 pts to a 12-year high of 10.0%
in February. So with high unemployment for the region as a whole, price pressures should
remain muted, although that didn’t happen in February. Thanks to higher oil costs, consumer
prices in the Eurozone jumped from 0.9% y/y in February to 1.5% y/y in March, the quickest
pace in over a year. This is a little surprising, despite the above-expected read in German CPI
earlier this week, and for Italy, and is helping give the EUR a lift this morning.
The AUD, on the other hand, had some of the wind knocked out of it after some very
disappointing data from Australia showed that the RBA’s rate hikes are having some effect.
Retail sales unexpectedly fell in February, with the 1.4% decline the first since December and
the largest in a year. Building approvals also tumbled in February for the second month in a
row, down 3.3% on the heels of January’s (upwardly revised) 5.5% decline. All in, these will
cement the view that although the RBA remains in tightening mode (emphasized by the recent
hawkish commentary coming from RBA officials), higher rates will only come every other
month or so.
AM CHARTS
• RecoVery in Canada
• The Long & Winding Road To Auto Recovery
• U.S. House Prices Are Rising, No Falling, No…
• Same Trend in Various Job Measures
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