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Abstract
This paper introduces a new method for analyzing solutiongas production to determine the ultimate recovery of a well or
a field. The procedure developed and outlined in this paper
requires very little input data and is easily implemented. By
modifiying the equations for dimensionless rate and
dimensionless cumulative production derived for the single
phase model, a new set of equations is developed to
approximate the ultimate recovery of a solution-gas well.
Using the approximate material balance equation based on
numerical results by Vogel1 and the equation for the
production rate derived by Fetkovich et al.2,3,4, this new set of
dimensionless rate and dimensionless cumulative production
equations are derived. Using the relationship between these
equations and an iterative calculation procedure, the ultimate
recovery for the solution-gas well can be easily determined.
All that is needed as input is the producing bottom-hole
pressure, the initial pressure, and the oil production data. The
method has been validated with twelve simulator cases, six
under constant bottom hole pressure production constraint and
six under variable bottom hole pressure production constraint.
Furthermore, several field cases have been analyzed. The
synthetic and field cases validate the procedure. Using the
early pseudo-steady state production data in the analysis the
results generated by the method are consistent with the actual
ultimate recoveries.
Literature Review
Production data are widely available for any producing oil
and/or gas well. For this reason it is often analyzed to
determine information about the reservoir. By analyzing the
production data using rate-time analysis the future
performance of the well can be predicted and an estimate of
the recoverable reserves can be calculated. If sufficient
transient production data are present, rate-time analysis can be
used to estimate the reservoir permeability and skin factor.
SPE 94859
time for oil wells are given below as Equation 4 and Equation
5 respectively.
q Dd =
r
qo
= q D ln e
qi
rwa
r
141 . 2 q o B o o ln e
rwa
=
kh p i p wf
t Dd =
tD
r
1 ln e
rwa
1 re
2 rwa
0.00634 kt
=
2
ct rwa
1 re
2 rwa
1
2
1 , ............ Equation 4
2
1
2
1
r
1 ln e
rwa
,.... Equation 5
1
2
q Dd =
3.
1
,.........................................................Equation 9
1 + t eDd
4.
(p
(p
2
2
i pf
2
2
i p wf
)N
)N
,..................................Equation 12
pf
Generate the qDd vs. QDd plot. If the x-intercept is 1.0, Npf
has been determined. Otherwise, refine the guess of Npf
and return to step 2.
SPE 94859
45,000
40,000
35,000
Np (STB)
30,000
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
0
Pr (psia )
2
60,000
50,000
40,000
Np (STB)
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
Pr (psia )
SPE 94859
0.9
0.8
qDd
R2 = 0.9989
0.7
0.6
0.5
R2 = 0.9978
0.4
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.7200
y = -5.5901x + 5.5847
0.7400
0.7600
0.7800
0.8000
0.8200
QDd
0.3
R2 = 0.9989
0.2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Figure 6: qDd vs. QDd plot for Case #1 with variable bottom hole
pressure.
150 days
300 days
q Dd
0.9
R2 = 0.9958
0.8
0.7
R2 = 0.9987
0.6
0.78
0.8
0.82
QDd
R2 = 0.9989
0.5
1.6
1.4
1.2
y = -5.5849x + 5.5846
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
0.72
0.74
0.76
Figure 7: qDd vs. QDd plot for Case #1 with variable bottom hole
pressure, but analyzed assuming a constant bottom hole
pressure.
0.4
0.3
0.2
0
500
1000
1500
2000
150 days
300 days
Linear ( 4 days)
0.2
0.15
q Dd
y = -0.9739x + 0.9738
0.1
0.05
0
0.8
0.82
0.84
0.86
0.88
QDd
Figure 5: qDd vs. QDd plot for Case #1 with constant bottom hole
pressure.
Field Case #1: McKey #1. The first field case is based on
production data from a well called the McKey #1. It is located
in the Ella-Robberson field located in Garvin County,
Oklahoma and was produced from the Bromide formation
from January of 1979 to April of 1989. The initial pressure
and flowing bottom hole pressure for the well are unknown, so
reasonable estimates will be used.
The Bromide is
approximately 8000 ft TVD, so using a gradient of fresh
water, the initial pressure would be 3470 psi. A reasonable
estimate for the flowing bottom hole pressure of 50 psi held
constant has been assumed. The well has an increasing gas oil
ratio (GOR), which is characteristic of solution-gas drive
wells. The GOR, Gas Rate, and Oil Rate vs. time are shown
in Figure 8.
SPE 94859
14
12
10
1000
8
6
100
4
10
2
q Dd
10000
GOR (Mcf/STB)
100000
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
0
Jan-78 May-79 Oct-80 Feb-82 Jul-83 Nov-84 Mar-86 Aug-87
Figure 10: McKey #1 qDd vs. QDd plot used to estimate the ultimate
recovery.
Time
Gas
Oil
GOR
Figure 8: McKey #1 GOR, Gas Rate and Oil Rate vs. Time plot.
10000
Oil Rate (STB/Month)
QDd
1000
100
10
100
1000
10000
Np/qo (Months)
Normalized
Production (BPM/Well
or Mcf/Month/Well)
900.00
40.00
800.00
35.00
700.00
30.00
600.00
25.00
500.00
20.00
400.00
15.00
300.00
10.00
200.00
GOR (Mcf/STB)
10
5.00
100.00
0.00
0
100
200
300
400
0.00
500
Months
GOR
Figure 11: Plot of normalized production data for Hardy field.
SPE 94859
field case, not all of the production data will be used to predict
the ultimate recovery. In this case the production data from
the 77th month to the 198th month (121 months total) are used
to determine the ultimate recovery. The q vs Np/q plot is
shown in Figure 12 and the qDd vs. QDd plot is shown in Figure
13.
100.00
10.00
100
Second wel l i n
pr oducti on
1.00
10
100
1000
10000
N p/q o (STB/Well)
q Dd
1.6
1.4
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
1000.00
67.3%Decl i ne /
10
1/1/2003
1/1/2004
12/ 31/2004
Month
Normalized Daily Oil Production
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
QDd
Figure 14: Semi-log plot of normalized oil rate vs. time for Vertz
field.
SPE 94859
100
10
1
1
10
100
1000
10000
N p /q o (day/well)
Figure 15: Normalized oil rate vs. Np/qo for Vertz field.
2.5
q Dd
2
1.5
1
D
Di
h
Joi
k
kro
Np
Npf
Nu
p
pf
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
p
pi
pwf
QDd
q
qDd
qi
qoi
RF
re
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
=
decline rate
inintal decline rate
reservoir thickness, ft
initial oil productivity index, STB/day/psi
permeability, md
oil relative permeability, md
cumulative liquid production, STB
cumulative liquid production at pf, STB
ultimate liquid production at p = 0, STB
pressure, psia
reservoir pressure at which Npf is calculated (pi
pf pwf), psia
average reservoir pressure, psia
initial reservoir pressure, psia
wellbore flowing pressure, psia
dimensionless cumulative production
flow rate, STB/day or Mscf/day
dimensionless rate
Intial rate, STB/d or Mscf/day
Initial oil rate, STB/day
recovery Factor
external radius, ft
rw
rwa
t
tD
tDd
=
=
=
=
=
=
wellbore radius, ft
apparent wellbore radius, ft
time, days
dimensionless time based on real time
dimensionless time based on tD
dimensionless time based on area and real time
0.5
0
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
QDd
Conclusions
Based on the work presented here, following conclusions can
be drawn:
1. A new method to analyze production data from
solution gas drive reservoirs is presented. The
method is capable of determining the ultimate
recovery from such reservoirs using easily available
data.
2. The proposed method is based on analytical
understanding of the reservoir as well as assumptions
used commonly in the industry.
3. The assumptions are validated by testing them
against commercial simulator.
4. The method is first validated by testing it against
several cases generated by commercial simulator.
The method is put to ultimate test of predicting the
ultimate recoveries of abandoned reservoirs using
early production data. The method was able to
correctly predict the ultimare recovery using the
production data.
5. The method is robust and relatively insensitive to
lack of information regarding available bottom hole
pressure data, thus, very practical.
Nomenclature
A = drainage area, ft2
b = Hyperbolic exponent (0 b 1)
Bo = oil formation volume factor, RBO/STBO
Boi = initial oil formation volume factor, RBO/STBO
ct = system compressibility, psia-1
t DA
t DA
References
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Vogel, J.V.: Inflow Performance Relationships for SolutionGas Drive Wells, JPT (Jan. 1968) 83-92; Trans., AIME, 243
Fetkovich, M.J.: Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves,
JPT (June 1980) 1065-1077.
Fetkovich, M.J., Fetkovich, E.J., and Fetkovich, M.D.: Useful
Concepts for Decline Curve Forecasting, Reserve Estimation,
and Analysis, SPERE (Feb. 1996) 13-22.
Fetkovich, M.J., Vienot, M.E., Bradley, M.D., and Kiesow,
V.G.: Decline Curve Analysis Using Type Curves Case
Histories, SPEFE (Dec. 1987) 637-656.
Arps, J.J.: Analysis of Decline Curves, Trans. AIME, Vol.
160, (1945) 228-247.
Palacio, J.C. and Blansingame, T.A.: Decline Curve Analysis
Using Type Curve Analysis of Gas Well Production Data, SPE
25909, paper presented at Joint Rocky Mountain Regional and
Low Permeability Reservoir Symposium, Denver, CO (April 2628, 1993).
Agarwal, R.G. et al.: Analyzing Well Production Data Using
Combined-Type-Curve and Decline-Curve Analysis Concepts,
SPEREE (Oct. 1999) 478.
SPE 94859
Appendix A
Derivation of solution-gas drive procedure.
Based on numerical results by Vogel1, the approximate
material balance equation for solution-gas drive reservoirs is
defined as,
Np
2
,
Dividing both sides by pi2 p wf
1= Np
pi2
pi2
2
p wf
)N
+
u
qo
J oi pi2
2
p wf
pi
,.......... Equation A-6
p
Where,
2
qoi = J oi pi2 p wf
, ............................................ Equation A-8
(
(
)
)
So a plot of qDd vs. QDd should intersect the x-axis at 1.0. The
unknown in Equation A-12 is Npf. By adjusting the value of
Npf and calculating p using Equation A-11, qDd vs. QDd can be
plotted until an x-intercept equal to 1.0. This allows Npf to be
determined.
In Equation A-2, the value of Joi is calculated as,
7.08 10 3 kh 1 k ro
, ................Equation A-13
J oi =
re
2 pi o Bo p
i
0.75
ln
rwa
p D = 7.08 10 3 kh
,...Equation A-14
2 pi o Bo p
qo
i
0.00633kt e 1
, ....................................Equation A-17
RFAh oi 1
pi
SPE 94859
t Dd =
p i2 p 2f J oi
Q Dd
t e , .......................... Equation A-19
=
q Dd
N pf
Value
0.1
1000
0.1
50
0.1
467,313
50
0
10
1820.4
1820.4
0.4
5000
0
0
0
Unit
ft
ft
ft
FVF (RB/Mscf)
208.037
50.901
11.273
6.212
4.230
3.175
2.582
2.084
1.768
1.532
1.387
1.224
1.197
1.158
1.133
Pressure
(psia)
14.5
59.1
259.8
460.5
661.2
861.9
1040.3
1263.4
1464.1
1664.8
1820.4
2043.9
2155.4
2200.0
FVF
(RB/STB)
1.0360
1.0379
1.0500
1.0649
1.0816
1.0998
1.1171
1.1400
1.1618
1.1847
1.2029
1.1994
1.1979
1.1974
STB
md
md
ft
psia
psia
Mscf/STB
ft
Pressure (psia)
14.5
59.1
259.8
460.5
661.2
861.9
1040.3
1263.4
1464.1
1664.8
1820.4
2043.9
2088.5
2155.4
2200.0
Rs
(Mscf/STB)
0.0012
0.0064
0.0383
0.0764
0.1182
0.1626
0.2040
0.2578
0.3080
0.3595
0.4000
Visc (cp)
0.01232
0.01236
0.01266
0.01306
0.01338
0.01365
0.01393
0.01432
0.01470
0.01513
0.01588
0.01664
0.01679
0.01703
0.01719
Fluid
Oil
Water
Gas
So
0.00
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.89
1.00
Kro
0.0000
0.0041
0.0233
0.0642
0.1317
0.2300
0.3629
0.5335
0.7449
1.0000
Krg
1.0000
0.9959
0.9767
0.9358
0.8683
0.7700
0.6371
0.4665
0.2551
0.0000
So
0.00
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.89
1.00
Kro
0.0000
0.0001
0.0018
0.0099
0.0332
0.0847
0.1821
0.3480
0.6098
1.0000
Krg
1.0000
0.9999
0.9982
0.9901
0.9668
0.9153
0.8179
0.6520
0.3902
0.0000
Visc
(cp)
3.682
3.534
2.854
2.292
1.968
1.694
1.506
1.323
1.193
1.087
1.018
1.040
1.051
1.056
10
SPE 94859
So
0.00
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.89
1.00
Kro
0.0000
0.0002
0.0028
0.0138
0.0423
0.1010
0.2057
0.3753
0.6317
1.0000
Krg
1.0000
0.9998
0.9972
0.9862
0.9577
0.8990
0.7943
0.6247
0.3683
0.0000
So
0.00
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.89
1.00
Kro
0.0000
0.0001
0.0011
0.0071
0.0260
0.0710
0.1613
0.3227
0.5886
1.0000
Krg
1.0000
0.9999
0.9989
0.9929
0.9740
0.9290
0.8387
0.6773
0.4114
0.0000
So
0.00
0.11
0.22
0.33
0.44
0.56
0.67
0.78
0.89
1.00
Kro
0.0000
0.0002
0.0034
0.0157
0.0466
0.1084
0.2160
0.3868
0.6407
1.0000
Krg
1.0000
0.9998
0.9966
0.9843
0.9534
0.8916
0.7840
0.6132
0.3593
0.0000
SPE 94859
11
Case
1
2
3
4
5
Case
1
2
3
4
5
Variable
or
Constant
Pressure
Eclipse Days
Produced
Eclipse
Cumulative
Production (STB)
Days Used in
Calculation
Calculated
Cumulative
Production (STB)
Relative
Error
(%)
Constant
5640
0.00
41,501
285-390
41,859
0.86%
Variable
5640
0.00
49,299
630-765
44,418
-9.90%
Constant
5640
0.00
58,380
345-465
57,996
-0.66%
Variable
5640
0.51
64,379
630-765
59,711
-7.25%
Constant
5640
0.10
90,101
435-615
91,549
1.61%
Variable
5640
0.94
95,282
855-1035
93,034
-2.36%
Constant
5640
0.00
48,431
315-420
48,188
-0.50%
Variable
5640
0.38
54,150
465-540
48,984
-9.54%
Constant
5640
0.02
73,865
390-540
73,753
-0.15%
Variable
5640
0.71
80,024
750-900
Table B-10: Summary of results for the 10 synthetic cases.
76,612
-4.26%
Average Flowing
BHP (psi)
103
127
182
111
153
Eclipse Ultimate
Recovery (STB)
49,299
64,379
95,282
54,150
80,024
Calculated Ultimate
Recovery (STB)
43,572
59,619
92,719
49,864
75,441
Absolute
Error (STB)
(5,727)
(4,760)
(2,563)
(4,286)
(4,583)
Relative
Error (%)
-11.62%
-7.39%
-2.69%
-7.92%
-5.73%
Table B-11: Summary of results for the 5 variable pressure synthetic cases calculated using a constant bottom hole pressure equal to the
average flowing bottom hole pressure.