Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Lec#2
Project Quality Management
Ghazala Amin
Why Quality?
Why Quality ?
A good definition of project success is getting the project completed;
Requirements
Within time
Within time and cost
Within time, cost and technical performance requirements
Within time, cost, performance and accepted by the customer/user.
Quality
Schedule
Cost
What is Quality?
The Quality Movement
Quality is:
the totality of characteristics of an entity which
bear on its ability to satisfy stated or implied
needs
-ISO 9000 definition.
Quality is not:
What is Quality?
Operation
Reliability & durability
Conformance
Serviceability
Appearance
Perceived quality
Quality
Importance of Quality
Responsiveness
Tangibles
Competence
Understanding
Access
Security
Courtesy
1995 Corel Corp.
Credibility
10
Communication
11
Market Gains
Reputation
Volume
Price
Improved
Quality
Increased
Profits
Lower Costs
Productivity
Rework/Scrap
Warranty
12
13
14
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Lec#3
Project Quality Management
Ghazala Amin
(MTTR-Mean-Time-To-Repair).
17
Requirements
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http://ph.jobstreet.com/jobs/2008/8/i/20/1941336.htm?fr=J
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Management responsibility:
Quality Movement
Conformance to requirements
the condition of the product or service in relation
25
to the customers requirements
ISO 9000
26
ISO Standards
28
ISO Standards
ISO 15504, sometimes known as;
SPICE (Software Process Improvement and Capability
dEtermination),
is a framework for the assessment of software processes.
29
ISO 9000
Defines key terms and acts as road map for standards within the series
ISO 9001
Defines model for quality system when contractor demonstrates
capability to design, produce and install products.
ISO 9002
Quality system model for quality assurance in production and
installation
ISO 9003
Quality system model for quality assurance in final inspection and
testing
ISO 9004
Quality mgmt. guidelines for organization wishing to develop and
30
implement a quality system.
ISO -Wikipedia
ISO Requirements are centered around the Plan, Do, Check, Act
methodology.
Plan
Establish the objectives and processes necessary to deliver results in
accordance with customer requirements and the organizations policies.
Do
Implement the processes.
Check
Monitor and measure processes and product against policies, objectives,
and requirements for the product and report the results
Act:
Take actions to continually improve process performance
Some of the requirements in ISO 9001:2008 (which is one of the standards in the
ISO 9000 family) include;
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32
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
Lec#4
ISO-Wikipedia
Ghazala Amin
References
^ "So many standards to follow, so little payoff". Stephanie Clifford. Inc
Magazine, May 2005.
^ a b c "Good Business Sense Is the Key to Confronting ISO 9000" Frank
Barnes in Review of Business, Spring 2000.
^ a b "The 'quality' you can't feel", John Seddon, The Observer, Sunday
November 19, 2000
^ "A Brief History of ISO 9000: Where did we go wrong?". John Seddon.
Chapter one of "The Case Against ISO 9000", 2nd ed., Oak Tree Press.
November 2000. ISBN 1-86076-173-9
^ "Is ISO 9000 really a standard?" Jim Wade, ISO Management Systems
MayJune 2002
^ a b "ISO a GO-Go." Mark Henricks. Entrepreneur Magazine Dec 2001.
^ The ISO Survey 2005 (abridged version, PDF, 3 MB), ISO, 2005
^ Abrahamson, E. (1996). "Managerial fashion." Academy of Management
Review. 21(1):254-285.
34
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
ISO 9000 is a family of standards for quality
management systems.
ISO 9000 is maintained by ISO, the International
Organization for Standardization and is
administered by accreditation and certification
bodies.
The rules are updated, as the requirements
motivate changes over time.
35
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
38
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Contents
Requirements is a document
of approximately 30 pages
which is available from the
national standards
organization in each country.
SCOPE
QUALITY MANAGEMENTS SYSTEM
MANAGEMENT RESPONSIBILITY
QUALITY POLICY
RESPONSIBILITY, AUTHORITY AND COMMMUNICATION
MANAGEMENT REVIEW
RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
INFRASTRUCTURE
WORK ENVIRONMENT
DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
PURCHASING
CONTROL MECHANISM
AUDITING
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Certification
ISO does not itself certify organizations.
Many countries have formed accreditation bodies to
authorize certification bodies, which audit
organizations applying for ISO 9001 compliance
certification.
Although commonly referred to as ISO 9000:2000
certification, the actual standard to which an
organization's quality management can be certified is
ISO 9001:2008. Both the accreditation bodies and the
certification bodies charge fees for their services.
The various accreditation bodies have mutual
agreements with each other to ensure that
certificates issued by one of the Accredited
Certification Bodies (CB) are accepted worldwide. 41
40
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Certification
The applying organization is assessed based on an
extensive sample of its sites, functions, products,
services and processes; a list of problems ("action
requests" or "non-compliance") is made known to the
management. If there are no major problems on this list,
or after it receives a satisfactory improvement plan from
the management showing how any problems will be
resolved, the certification body will issue an ISO 9001
certificate for each geographical site it has visited.
An ISO certificate is not a once-and-for-all award, but
must be renewed at regular intervals recommended by
the certification body, usually around three years. There
are no grades of competence within ISO 9001: either a
company is certified (meaning that it is committed to
the method and model of quality management
described in the standard), or it is not.
42
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Advantages
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Advantages
43
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Problems
44
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Problems
46
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Problems
ISO 9000-Wikipedia-Problems
ISO 9000-Wikipedia
Summary
A good overview for effective use of ISO 9000 is
provided by Barnes:
"Good business judgment is needed to
determine its proper role for a company. Is
certification itself important to the marketing
plans of the company? If not, do not rush to
certification Even without certification,
companies should utilize the ISO 9000 model as
a benchmark to assess the adequacy of its
quality programs."
Lec#5
Project Quality Management
Total Quality Management (TQM)
Ghazala Amin
49
Employee Empowerment
Techniques
Support workers
Let workers make decisions
Build teams & quality circles
51
52
Senior Management
Project Manager
Project Staff
Customer
Vendors, suppliers, and contractors
Regulatory Agencies
Externally;
TQM is customer oriented and provides ,meaningful customer
satisfaction.
Internally;
TQM reduces production bottlenecks and production costs,
enhancing product quality while improving organizational morale.
Sales Gains
Organizational Practices
Improved response
Higher Prices
Improved reputation
Improved
Quality
Reduced Costs
56
Quality Principles
Increased
Profits
Employee Fulfillment
Increased productivity
Lower rework and scrap costs
Lower warranty costs
Customer Satisfaction
57
Organizational Practices
58
Leadership
Mission statement
Effective operating procedure
Staff support
Training
Yields: What is important and what is to be
accomplished
Quality Principles
Customer focus
Continuous improvement
Employee empowerment
Benchmarking
59
Just-in-time
Tools of TQM
Yields: How to do what is important and to be
accomplished
60
Customer Satisfaction
Employment Fulfillment
Winning orders
Repeat customers
Yields: An effective organization with a
competitive advantage
Empowerment
empowerment requires workers to assume
greater responsibility
Organizational commitment
Yields: Employees attitudes that they can
accomplish what is important and to be
accomplished
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Lec#6
Project Quality Management
Total Quality Management
Ghazala Amin
69
Quality Experts
Quality Gurus
Deming, Juran, Crosby
71
72
Immediate remedies
Future Actions
Objectives
Methods
Act
Plan
Check
Do
Against Objectives
How methods are executed
Train
Execute
Deming believed in ceasing mass inspections and ending awards based on price
73
74
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
12.
13.
14.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
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79
80
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Continuous Improvement
Kaizen (Japanese)
Zero-defects
Six sigma
Improve processes.
1984-1994 T/Maker Co.
83
Measure progress.
84
Zero Defects
Quality Circles
86
87
Just-in-Time (JIT)
88
Just-in-Time (JIT)
Relationship to quality:
90
Scrap
Capacity
Imbalances
Unreliable
Vendors
Scrap
Capacity
Imbalances
91
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Lecture #7
Project Quality Management
Quality Processes
Ghazala Amin
Quality Leadership
Reference:
95
Dr. Harold Kerzners PROJECT MANAGEMENT A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PLANNING, SCHEDULING, AND CONTROLLING
Page 915: QUALITY LEADERSHIP
96
Teamwork
Strategic Integration
Continuous Improvement
Respect for people
Customer Focus
Management by Fact
Structured Problem Solving
97
Processes include:
Quality planning: Identifying quality requirements and/or
standards relevant to the project and documenting how
the project will demonstrate compliance.
Quality assurance: Periodically auditing overall project
quality control measurements to ensure that appropriate
quality standards are used.
Quality control: Monitoring and recording specific project
quality activities to assess performance and recommend
necessary changes.
Quality Planning
Quality Assurance
Quality Control
Planning
Execution
Control
Quality
Planning
Quality
Assurance
Quality Control
Closing
Knowledge
Areas
Quality
Management
Project managers are ultimately responsible for quality management on their projects
99
Quality Planning
100
Quality Planning
Quality planning should be performed regularly
and in parallel with other project planning
processes. For example:
102
Quality Planning
104
Quality Policy
105
106
Benefit/cost analysis
Benchmarking
Flowcharting
Design of experiments
Cost of Quality
107
108
Benchmarking
It involves comparing actual or planned project
practices to those of other projects (either within
the performing organization or external) to
generate ideas for improvement and to provide a
standard by which to measure performance.
109
110
Flowcharting
111
112
Some commonly used tools & techniques employed for Quality planning
are;
Design of experiments
A statistical method that helps identify which factors might
influence specific variables.
Is applied most frequently to the product of the project .
Example: automotive designers may wish to determine which
combination of suspension and tires will produce the most
desirable ride characteristics at a reasonable cost.
114
Design of experiments
Can also be applied to project management issues such as
cost and schedule
tradeoffs.
Example: senior engineers will cost more than junior engineers
but will usually complete the assignment in less time. An
appropriately designed experiment which computes project
costs and duration for various combinations of senior and
junior engineers will often yield an optimal solution from a
relatively limited number of cases.
Cost of Quality
Refers to the total cost of all efforts to achieve
product/service quality.
Includes all work to ensure conformance to
requirements as well as all work resulting from
nonconformance to requirements.
115
116
Cost of Quality
Three types of incurred costs:
prevention,
appraisal, and
failure (where failure is)
internal cost
external costs.
117
Lecture #8
Project Quality Management
Quality Management Plan
Ghazala Amin
118
Quality is never an
accident, it is always the
result of an intelligent
effort
John Ruskin
120
1. DEFECTS / REJECTS
2.
COMPLAINTS
3.
CONSISTENCY
4.
PRECISION
5.
ACCURACY
6.
VARIATION
121
http://perspectives.avalution.com/2009/what-is-management-system/
122
Fitness to Latent
Requirements
Fitness to
Cost
To build a product that
meets the needs of
customer.
Fitness to
Use
Fitness to
Standards
To build a product that meets the
specifications set by the designer.
124
125
http://perspectives.avalution.com/2009/what-is-management-system/
126
Quality Management
All activities of the overall management
function that determine the quality
policy, objectives and responsibilities
and implement planning, quality control,
quality
assurance
and
quality
improvement within the quality system
(ISO 840)
http://www.mamk.fi/instancedata/prime_product_julkaisu/mamk/embeds/mamkwwwstructure/eb245bc19a2177d0e943c128d91b7e2607c60110.jpg
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
QUALITY MANAGEMENT APPROACH
QUALITY REQUIREMENTS / STANDARDS
QUALITY ASSURANCE
QUALITY CONTROL
QUALITY CONTROL MEASUREMENTS
http://www.projectmanagementdocs.com/project-planning-templates/quality-management-plan.html132
Lecture #9
Project Quality Management
Quality ProcessesQuality Assurance and Quality Control
Ghazala Amin
134
Quality Assurance
Poor
Quality
Project
135
136
Quality Control
QUALITY ASSURANCE
137
138
Quality Assurance
Dr. Harold Kerzners PROJECT MANAGEMENT A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PLANNING, SCHEDULING, AND CONTROLLING
Page 988 and 989: QUALITY ASSURANCE AND QUALITY CONTROL
140
139
Quality Assurance
Quality Audit
142
Quality Audit
Quality audits
A structured review of all quality management
activities.
143
144
Quality improvement
Includes taking action to increase the effectiveness
and efficiency of the project to provide added benefits
to the project stakeholders.
In most cases will require preparation of change
requests or taking corrective action and will be
handled according to the procedures for integrated
change control.
146
Quality Control
Quality Control
147
Quality Control
148
Quality Control
149
Work results
Quality management plan
Operational definitions
Checklists
150
Quality Control
Quality Control
Inspection:
Inspection
Control charts
Pareto diagram
Statistical sampling
Flowcharting
Trend analysis
151
152
Results in;
What is Rework?
Quality improvement
Acceptance decisions
Rework
Action taken to bring a defective or nonconforming
item into
compliance with requirements or specifications.
Rework, especially
unanticipated, is a frequent cause of project overruns
in most application areas.
The project team should make every reasonable effort
to minimize rework.
Rework
153
154
Process adjustments
Immediate corrective or preventive action
as a result of
quality control measurements. In some
cases, the process adjustment may
need to be handled according to
procedures for integrated change control.
155
Quality control
Quality Control is primarily concerned with the
correctness of work results.
156
Analysis
Data
Tables
Pareto
Analysis
Histograms
Scatter
Diagrams
Trend
Analysis
Control
Charts
Ghazala Amin
157
158
Data Table
Tools of TQM
Defects
Proces
sA
Proces
sB
Proces Proces
sC
sD
Total
Incorrect Invoice
Incorrect Inventory
Damaged Material
10
Total
13
34
Histograms
Statistical process control chart
159
Time
Machine Method
160
Effect
Material
Major
Defect
Energy
Measure
People
Environ.
161
162
Scatter Diagram
Y
Pareto Analysis
Pareto Diagram
Primary Purpose:
Focus improvement efforts on the most important causes
164
15
10
5
0
Noise
Pressure
Other
of the defects
166
Acceptance Sampling
167
Wobble
Pareto's rule:
A large number of defects are the result of a small number of causes. Fix the problems
that are causing the greatest number of defects first. Does not account for severity
Inspection and test standards must be established to ensure that procedures are
adequate to determine whether a lot is conforming or nonconforming to
specifications.
Important to select a sample size that will provide sufficient information about the
larger lot of goods without costing a great deal of money.
Must determine in advance the number of allowable defects before the lot is
rejected.
168
Statistical Sampling
Statistical sampling involves choosing part of a
population of interest for inspection.
Statistical Sampling
Prevention
Keep Errors out of production
Keep defects from reaching customers
Attribute Sampling
Conformance or non-conformance
169
Statistical Sampling
170
171
172
Control Chart
Number of defects - Process A
Upper Specification Limit
Upper Control Limit
Mean
Lower Control Limit
Lower Specification Limit
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
Time
Process results over time
Process is in control when the number of defects fall within
upper and lower control limits.
Process adjustments are immediate corrective actions based on
QC measure.
Process can be improved to meet tighter control limits:
Processes in control should not be adjusted.
174
176
Hugging control limit: a series (run) of points that are close to a control
limit. Requires correction to prevent data points from going outside the
control limit.
Rule of Thumb: Considered abnormal if two of three, three of seven,
or four of ten data points fall within the outer one-third of the chart.
177
178
179
180
Types of Tests
Unit testing tests each individual component (often a
program) to ensure it is as defect-free as possible.
Integration testing occurs between unit and system
testing to test functionally grouped components.
System testing tests the entire system as one entity.
User acceptance testing is an independent test
performed by end users prior to accepting the
delivered system.
181
182
Assignment
Lec#11
Ghazala Amin
183
184
CRITICAL QUALITY
ISSUES IN
PAKISTAN
185
186
Education in Pakistan: The Key Issues, Problems and The New Challenges
Ghulam Rasool Memon,
Department of Education, University of Karachi
The Education Sector in Pakistan suffers from insufficient financial input, low
levels of efficiency for implementation of programs, and poor quality of
management, monitoring, supervision and teaching. As a result, Pakistan has
one of the lowest rates of literacy in the world, and the lowest among
countries of comparative resources and social/economic situations.
With a per capita income of over $450 Pakistan has an adult literacy rate of
49%, while both Vietnam and India with less per capita income have literacy
rates of 94% and 52%, respectively (Human Development Centre, 1998).
An educational system of poor quality may be one of the most important
reasons why poor countries do not grow.
187
188
Identification
Poor Carrot Production in Toba Tek Singh Cross-sectional data were used to determine the effects of ground water on carrot
production. Results of production function analysis indicated that poor quality of
ground water in Toba Tek Singh was significantly decreasing the carrot production.
The consistent use of poor quality water not only deteriorates chemical and physical
properties of soil (World Bank, 1994) but also results in loss of agriculture production
of the order of 14000 million rupees per annum (Pato, 1998)
The result indicates that one percent increase in application of poor quality of the
ground water could further decline carrot yield by 0.153%. Carrot crop is sensitive to
poor quality of the ground water and application of this type of water results in
substantial losses in carrot production.
Data
Tables
Pareto
Analysis
Cause
and
Effect
Analysis
Trend
Analysis
Analysis
Histograms
Scatter
Diagrams
Control
Charts
189
Time
Machine Method
190
Effect
Material
Major
Defect
Energy
Measure
People
Environ.
191
192
OVERVIEW OF QA PLAN
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
Introduction
Reference Documents
Management Organization
Standards to be Used
Coaching & Mentoring Activities
Reviews & Audits
Feed Back & Reports
Problems Reporting & Corrective Actions
193
194
OVERVIEW OF QA PLAN
Project Quality Management
Lec#12
Project Quality Processes
Ghazala Amin
195
Quality Processes
196
Quality Processes
Quality Nodes
Requirements
People
Requirements
Quality
Quality
Schedule
Quality Nodes
Cost
Process
People
Quality
Quality
Technology
Schedule
Cost
Process
Technology
200
201
No time to improve
Constantly in reactive mode rather than proactive
Firefighters get burned easily !!!!
Embers may rekindle later.
204
Benefits of predicting
Project performance
Probability of success
b.
c.
Time/Rs.$/
205
206
208
Organizational Influences
210
Organizational Influences,
Workplace Factors, and Quality
Study by DeMarco and Lister showed that organizational
issues had a much greater influence on programmer
productivity than the technical environment or
programming languages.
Programmer productivity varied by a factor of one to ten
across organizations, but only by 21 percent within the
same organization.
Study found no correlation between productivity and
programming language, years of experience, or salary.
A dedicated workspace and a quiet work environment
were key factors to improving programmer productivity.
211
212
214
Maturity Models
216
218
220
Continuous Improvement
221
Reference:
Dr. Harold Kerzners PROJECT MANAGEMENT A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PLANNING, SCHEDULING, AND CONTROLLING
Page 929: Project Management Maturity Model
222
Reference:
Dr. Harold Kerzners PROJECT MANAGEMENT A SYSTEMS APPROACH TO PLANNING, SCHEDULING, AND CONTROLLING
Page 941: Continuous Improvement
Bottom Line
Ghazala Amin
223
224
Exceeding
customer
expectations
Employee
Empowerment
226
Leadership
As Joseph M. Juran said in 1945, It is most
important that top management be qualityminded. In the absence of sincere manifestation
of interest at the top, little will happen below.
Cost Of Quality
227
228
Media Snapshot*
230
*McGuire, David, Report: Spam Costs Are Rising at Work, Washington Post (June 7, 2004).
231
Quality is Free
232
233
234
Cost of Quality-Wikipedia
Quality Planning
Investment in quality-related
information
Quality training and workforce
Systems development and
management
Product design verification
Appraisal Cost
Cost of Non-Conformance-Wikipedia
Description
Examples
235
Description
Prevention Costs
Examples
Scrap
Rework
Material procurement
costs
Complaints in warranty
Complaints out of
warranty
Product service
Product liability
Product recall
Loss of reputation
237
238
240
Non-Conformance
Scrap
Rework
Material cost
(additional)
Warranty repairs
Complaint handling
Liability Judgments
Product recall
Field Service
Expediting
241
242
Cost of Non-compliance
Failure costs
Internal losses - scrap, rework
External losses - warranty work, customer
complaint departments, litigation, product recalls
243
244
Quality of design
meet the customers needs
design for manufacturability
build quality in
Quality of conformance
minimize and control process variation to satisfy the
design specifications every time
Quality of service
The customer must come first
245
Ghazala Amin
Six Sigma
Six Sigma is a comprehensive and flexible
system for achieving, sustaining, and maximizing
business success. Six Sigma is uniquely driven
by close understanding of customer needs,
disciplined use of facts, data, and statistical
analysis, and diligent attention to managing,
improving, and reinventing business processes.*
References
http://www.ge.com/sixsigma/SixSigma.pdf
Six Sigma
Six Sigma is a rigorous management discipline
that systematically reduces variations, eliminates
errors, improves processes and reduces cost.*
249
DMAIC
250
DMAIC
Define
Measure
Analyze
Improve
Control
251
252
254
Reference: http://media.techtarget.com/searchSoftwareQuality/downloads/SixSigmaContImprove.pdf
255
Percent of
Population
260
Defective Units
Per Billion
Within Range
1
68.27
317,300,000
95.45
45,400,000
99.73
2,700,000
99.9937
63,000
99.999943
57
99.9999998
The Six Sigma convention for determining defects is based on the above
conversion table. It accounts for a 1.5 sigma shift to measure the number of
defects per million opportunities instead of the number of defects
per unit.
261
PRM 702
Project Risk Management
Ghazala Amin
262
Risk Definition
Project Risk:
An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a
positive or a negative effect on a project objective.
It includes both threats to the project objectives and
opportunities to improve on those objectives.
PMBOK Guide, 2000
Project Risk
Management
Risk Management
Processes
Project Risk
Management
1.
2.
3.
4.
Risk Management
Plan
Risk Management
Plan
Methodology
Roles and responsibilities
Budget and schedule
Risk categories
Risk probability and impact
270
Risk documentation
Risk IdentificationCategory
Category is the risk category based on:
Technology (TE)
Risk Identification
catastrophic (show-stopper) 1
Calculating severity
Description
Category
Root
Cause
Triggers
Potential
Responses
Risk
Owner
Probability
Impact
Severity
Problem
No.
Rank
R44
Status
Staff
R21
R7
Expectation
6
Impact
5
Severity
30
5
5
8
5
40
25
Risk Breakdown
Structure (RBS)
A source-oriented grouping of project
risks that organizes and defines the
total risk exposure of the project. Each
descending level represents an
increasingly detailed definition of
sources of risk to the project.
278
Risk Breakdown
Structure (RBS)
provides organization and structure
helps identify blind spots
facilitates understanding of types of risks and risk sources
indicates correlation of risks
allows for generic risk management plans to address
multiple risks
allows cross-project (portfolio) risk management
allows project ranking on basis of risk
Risk Identification
Guidelines
Assemble SME s (Subject Matter
Experts)
Identify endemic risks
Create an environment that
encourages honest discussion
Risk Assessment
Guidelines
Use descriptors for Probability and Impact
Qualitative Risk Assessment is useful when you do not
have accurate numbers for Impact and Probability
Analysis is often unconscious rationalization of decisions
already made
Risk Scatter Diagram communicates the general risk
profile for a project or phase
Decision Trees can assess multiple probabilities
Risk Management
Tools
Risk Identification
RBS
Risk Map
Risk Assessment
Qualification model
PROJECT QUALITY
AND RISK
MANAGEMENT
PRM 702
LECTURE 20
GHAZALA AMIN
Lecture # 21
PRM 702
Lecture # 22
PRM 702
Ghazala Amin
Ghazala Amin
PRM 702
PRM 702
Ghazala Amin
Ghazala Amin
PRM 702
CONSEQUENCES
Likelihood
Ghazala Amin
Major
4
Almost Certain
4
16
Likely
3
Moderate
3
Minor
2
12
Insignificant
1
4
12
Possible
2
Unlikely
1
Risk Score
16-12
9-8
High
6-4
Moderate
3-1
Low
290
CONSEQUENCES
Likelihood
Likelihood
Major
4
Moderate
3
Almost Certain
4
Minor
2
Insignificant
1
Minor
2
Likely
3
Insignificant
1
Possible
2
Possible
2
Moderate
3
Almost Certain
4
Likely
3
Major
4
1
Unlikely
1
Unlikely
1
Lecture # 26
PRM 702
Project Quality and Risk Management
Ghazala Amin
292
What is Risk?
Risk and uncertainty are
equivalent
Three Definitions
DEFINITION
Risk
Project Risk
The cumulative effect of the chances of an
uncertain occurrence that will adversely
affect project objectives.
Risk Management
A systematic and explicit approach for
identifying, quantifying, and controlling
project risk.
ISSUES
PROCESS
OUTPUT
FEEDBACK LOOP
THIS PROCESS VITAL TO EFFECTIVE PROJECT CONTROL, HOWEVER
Ways to Avoid
Risk Management
Managing risk is everybodys business
There is only one risk: The project
might fail. And were managing that by
working real hard to assure that doesnt
happen.
Project Risk
Complete
Information
Partial
Information
(Known
unknowns)
(Unknown
unknowns)
GENERAL
TOTAL
UNCERTAINTY UNCERTAINTY
Integration
Communication
Scope
(Knowns)
SPECIFIC
UNCERTAINTY
Time
TOTAL
CERTAINTY
Project Risk
Quality
Cost
Procurement
Human Resources
INTEGRATING RISK
PROJECT
MANAGEMENT
INTEGRATION
SCOPE
Expectations
Feasibility
Requirements
Standards
QUALITY
PROJECT
RISK
Time Objectives,
Restraints
TIME
INFORMATION /
COMMUNICATIONS
Ideas, Directives,
Data Exchange Accuracy
Availability
Productivity
HUMAN
RESOURCES
Cost Objectives,
Restraints
CONTRACT /
PROCUREMENT
COST
Risk Classification
Positives
Negatives
SUMMARY
Some Considerations
PRM 702
Project Risk Management
Lecture #27
What to Study
339
340
What is a risk?
A risk is a potential event or a future situation that may negatively affect
the project.
Risks are identified, described and analyzed in terms of;
Probability that they will occur
Effects or consequences if they do happen
Time frame within which their consequences might occur
Examples of few risks to the project;
Technology not easily available
Resources not committed to the project
Sponsor does not show up for meetings
Unidentified end users etc. etc.
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342
344
Planning
Execution
Control
Closing
Knowledge Areas
Risk
Management
Risk
Managemen
t Planning
Risk
Monitoring
and
Control
Risk
Identificatio
n
Qualitative Risk
analysis
Quantitative
Risk
analysis
Risk Response
Planning
345
Project Risk Management is the process of being proactive rather than reactive.
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347
348
Risk - Definitions
Decision Making Under Risk: Expected Value
Certainty
All information for making the right decision is available
Can predict the outcome with confidence
Risk
The totality of the occurrence can be described within
established confidence limit
Expected payoff can be mathematically calculated
Uncertainty
Meaningful assignments of probabilities are not possible
Management decision can be made applying one of 4
criteria
349
E i =j =1 Pij pj,
Where
E i = expected payoff for strategy i
P = Payoff element
p = Probability of event
E 1 = (50)(0.25)+40(0.25)+90(0.5) = 67.50
E 2 = (50)(0.25)+50(0.25)+60(0.5) = 55
E 3 = (100)(0.25)+80(0.25)+(-50)(0.5) = 20
Based on the Expected payoff value, Strategy 1 should
be used.
350
Laplace Criterion
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352
Decision Trees
A decision tree is a diagram that depicts key
interactions among decisions and associated
chance events as they are understood by the
decision makers
The branches of the tree represent either
decisions (shown as boxes) or chance events
(shown as circles)
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355
PRM 702
Project Risk Management
Lecture #28
356
358
360
Risk Identification
Outputs
Inputs
Risk Identification
362
Risk Identification
Documentation reviews
Information gathering techniques
Checklists analysis
Assumption analysis
Diagramming techniques
Expert judgment
SWOT Analysis
363
Outputs
364
Risk Identification
Risks register
It includes:
Qualitative Risk Analysis
Quantitative Risk Analysis
365
366
Inputs
Risk register
Risk management plan
Project scope statement
Organizational process assets
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368
Outputs
370
High
Likely to cause significant disruption to schedule,
increase in cost or degradation of performance
Moderate
Has potential to cause some disruption as above,
will probably overcome difficulties
Low
Has little potential to cause disruption to
schedule, cost or degradation of performance
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372
Inputs
373
374
Outputs
Risk register updates
375
376
Acceptance
Avoidance
Mitigation
Transfer
Acceptance
Enhance
Exploit
Share
377
378
Inputs
379
380
Reserves
Outputs
Contingency Reserve
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382
Insurance Strategies
Reserves
Management Reserve
A separately planned quantity used to allow for
future situations which are impossible to predict
Also known as unknown unknowns
May involve cost, schedule or both
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384
Inputs
Risk register
Project management plan
Work performance information
Performance reports
Risk reassessment
Risk audits
Variance and trend analysis
Reserve analysis
Technical performance measurement
Status meetings
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386