Johansson cointegration, ECM

C0integration test (first we check stationary of data if all variable are stationary at first difference, then
we will check cointegration ,if we find cointegration then we can go for ECM ,following chart also
describing this procedure

Remember, the cointegration test is only valid if you have non-stationary series!
The purpose of the cointegration test is to determine whether several non-stationary time
series are cointegrated or not. The presence of a Cointegrating relation forms the basis of the
ECM(Cointegrating tells about the long run relationship, existence)

To perform Johansen cointegration test, first open the series: or quick-group statistics
Suppose all the variables are stationary at first difference and now we are going for
cointegration

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Simple enter and in a dialog box simple write name of variable like lgdp lexport and enter.
When

you

will

inter

window

will

be

open

like

Explanation of this dialog box

Deterministic trend assumption of test Practical guides:
use case 1 only if you know that all series have zero mean (unusual in empirical studies);
case 5 may provide a good fit in-sample but will produce implausible forecasts out-ofsample.;

use case 2 if none of the series appear to have a trend;

use case 3 if series are trending and you believe all trends are stochastic;
use case 4 if series are trending and you believe some of them are trend stationary;
use case 6 if you are not certain which trend assumption to use (Eviews will help you
determine the choice of the trend assumption).
Now we select 3 and enter and results are these.

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How to know either here is

cointegration of not.so read this
line and this will show how much
cointegration equations exist,
remember at least, there must be
one cointegration equation exist in
this example we have two
cointegration equations that is
good. Sometime trace test
indication cointegration, while
max-eigen dont show
cointegration between variables,
so not so serious prob, in this case
you can take trace test as bench
mark and conclude that there is a
cointegration. But it is better both
of test show cointegration.

The first two tables report results for testing the number of Cointegrating relations. Two types of test
statistics are reported: trace statistics and the maximum eigenvalue statistics. For each table, the first
column is the number of Cointegrating relations under the null hypothesis, the second column is the
ordered eigenvalues of the matrix , the third column is the test statistic, and the last two columns are
the 5% critical values

ECM error correction model (in above pages we saw cointegration among variable so now
we will go for Ecm
Why we use error correction model?
There are some problems in first difference these are following thats why we apply ECM.
In first difference even we find that spurious relation(meaningless relation
,mathematically relation exist but logically does not exist like relationship between
GDP and Corruption there must be negative relation but due to trend here positive
relation exist) does not exist but we eliminate constant
Out correlation occur in error term(autocorrelation leads insignificant effects)

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 We can do over estimate or under estimate due to first differencing

Difficult to find static equilibrium
How to apply ECM?
Drag file on Eviews note if you are using eveiw 5 then save excel file in file type
2003( suppose I have checked already stationary level and cointegration )
Now youre variable appear in eveiw then simple go to quick estimate equation.

How to write equation of ECM simple first dependent variable then independent like
d(lgdp) c d(lexport) lgdp(-1) lexport(-1) and enter. Here GDP is our dependent variable and
export is independent all are in logged form and space in c and variables .(pre-condition I have
already told in crux part means all variables must be stationary at first difference)

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Now explanation of ECM

D tells about the short run relation and prob value tell about the significant
or insignificant relation,, and coefficient tell about the positive or negative
relationship means if let suppose D LEXPORTS coefficient values comes in
negative and probability value comes less than five percent then we will
explain that there is short run negative and significant association between
exp and gdp . Same explanation for positive association and (-1) tells about
long run relation
Here u can conclude that in short run and long run explored dont have
relationship with gdp

Durbin Watson this value tells

about the auto correlation in ur
variables which is not good, if ur
values comes near 2 then there is
no correlation,, and D-W values
comes between 2-4(near two
means 1.6,7,8,9,) but much less
means harmful like in above results
to less value

R square values tells,, explanatory power of u model,, means how much ur

dependent variable is effecting due to independent variable like in this case
our dependent variable is effecting 99 percent .you note results are telling
that no relationship but R-square show much strength the reason is that I
have not chosen good statistical test because all variables are not stationary
at first difference. I just apply this model for your understanding.
F-STATISTIS, values tells about the good fit of model. Means either jointly all
variables effect or not dependent variables .F-statics value must be more
than F-STATISTSITCS problity vlaue.(note selection of right statistical test is
most important to avoid from spurious results)

d indicate short run relationship between variable like in this table export and dgp having no
significant relationship in short run value.91 and in long run .94 probability value is value that is
more than 5% which is insignificant so no relationship in long run .the variables which have
values(-1) indicate that how much quickly in extraordinary situations dependent variable convert

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toward own actual level normally values comes equal to one or less than one if values increase
more than one it means dependent variable will not come again in actual level.

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