Chapter 27: Climate Change

FINAL:
10 short answer questions
TA wrote two of them
Highlight on paper
If you write down models, make sure you understand the concept
rather than what theyre saying
If theres math, will be simple
4-5:30 in Young CS50
Multiple choice questions
Make sure to learn major concepts of the course
Climate Change:
Four of the biggest issues were facing on the planet:
Loss of soil fertility
Change of habitat
Loss of biodiversity
Climate Change
Incredible amount of feedback loops, both positive and negative
Can change the system and see little response for a while, but all of
the sudden see massive response tipping point
some models are trying to take into account when this threshold is
reached
The Ecology of Climate Change

Earths rotation affects the amount of sunlight striking the different

parts of the globe and causes the seasons
Tilt of Earths axis allows for ice ages
Milankoitch Cycle: Earth orbits in an elliptical around the sun
o Helps to define glacial periods
1300-1850 Europe and the world was experiencing a mini Ice Age;
then the industrial revolution took place around
o people started measuring CO2 in the atmosphere and noticed
a warming
1970s: burning so many fossil fuels isnt a good thing
Geologic Timescale: Earth goes through warm periods and cold periods and
warm periods and cold periods
a lot hotter in the tertiary period and that was a very warm period
of time
Weather vs. Climate?
Weather atmospheric conditions at a specific point in time
Climate atmospheric conditions of a region over a long period of time
UNDERSTAND:
If a species overshoots its carrying capacity, it will start to degrade
its environment, and then you will decrease the carrying capacity of
the species
- Since Industrial Revolution, exponential increase of amount of CO2
CO2 closely correlates with temperature
Use ice sheets and capture bubbles of air to measure these blocks
of ancient air and find out the temperature of the past
Ice is melting! So lots of our data is disappearing
Earths Climate has warmed over the past century
Has warmed by 0.74 degrees Celcius
Will continue to warm and warm a lot faster

Mean Annual Temperature:

o The majority of the warming is happening in the northern
hemisphere
WATCH: Changing Ice in free time
Minimum temperatures have risen twice as fast as maximum
More rain, but in places that already has a lot of rain
Ocean Temperature Change
Ocean is a place to absorb heat
Good at absorbing heat; ocean is good at moderating temperature
and keeping a constant climate if you live by the ocean
We are seeing a heating of the ocean all the way up to 3000 feet
These oceans are expanding and rising
Looking at satellite pictures:
Warming of ocean surface is largest over the artic ocean
Global average heat content of the ocean is starting to increase
Rising Sea Levels
Warming causes seawater to expand, raising the sea level
Water is most dense at 4 degrees and starts to expand as it gets
warmer and warmer
A huge amount of energy is entering the ocean and a lot of water is
expanding = seawater expands
- Were seeing more flood planes, surges of storms, hurricane Katrina
and Sandy
- a lot of insurance companies are pushing to be more careful
- global average sea level rises can really see it rise
Climate refugees from small island communities

Sea level rises = one of the most immediate effects, and see a lot
more drought
Methanogens
Methane = important greenhouse grass, locked in oceans and
permafrost
Siberia looks like its warming
o Can make methane to get energy and when snow melts you
release methane and when you open the permafrost it can
explode
If oceans continue to warm especially to lower areas, the bottom
has a lot of methane and methanogens and if theyre liberated so
the ocean will burp
What were seeing right now:
Precipitation = can see statistical significance in trends and changes
of precipitation
Can see where youre getting a lot less rain and a lot more rain
Some organisms are more susceptible than other organisms to
climate changes
o Cold-blood animals will be more susceptible, and the ones in
the warmer regions; they live closer to their tolerances
Looking back at Ice Age: very large animals back then
Warm blooded animals = animal body size increase to a decreasing
temperature; more efficient to be smaller when its warmer
This is good since were fragmenting the environment so much
Expect to see more small organisms on planet
Ectoderms:
Metabolic activity increases exponentially with temperature
Optional temperature where species do very well; also a place
where they cant survive
Where is the point where you wont see those species and how close
are they to this point
Thermal Tolerance
Porcelain crab: heat up the temperature and find out where 50% of
them die = LT50

 Then they look at maximum habitat temperature is

You want your LT50 to be well above maximum temperature is
If youre below youre maximum temperature you are in trouble
Terrestrial Species Response to CC
impacts on terrestrial plant species are more complicated
Tree Growth: what is happening to the trees
o Plants are the base of the food system
o Noticing an increase in the length of the growing season;
gives trees a longer time to grow in Eastern Long America
In Western Long America = a lot of drought so plants cant grow
Arctic and West = not as much growth
However, increase in vegetation in the Arctic
A lot of shrubs growing
Grasslands are doing better than forests
Phenology timing of seasonal activity
Many areas have changes in migration
Change in hibernation, reproduction, etc
Earlier egg laying date
Birds then came to England earlier and left earlier
Meta Analysis:
203 species of animals
showing amphibians showing the greatest shift in reproduction time
in an other group
buttlerflies emerged quicker than their food source

watch podcast 10-10:!5

Arctic Fox v Red Fox
Species that was once limited where they could roam has no
expanded; artic fox is similar to red fox and red fox was limited and couldnt
expand to arctic frost but can no do it since its warmer now
Plant community and CC
A lot more losers than winners
Arizona mountains = saw temperature was increasing and rainfall
was decreasing
More species becoming more limited
Ocean Systems and CC
Zooplankton and phytoplankton = they are the base of the food
chain, if bad things happen it will ripple its way through the entire
food chain
Warmer species of zooplankton would expand to the arctic regions
and colder groups retreating more and more
WHY SHOULD WE CARE?
Very important food species to us will start to lose their habitat and
warmer species are moving to their habitat
Cod is on the verge of collapse
Need to take a step back and look at things globally
Net primary productivity the carbon stored in plants that other
organisms can eat
Maybe well get more plant growth
o Did the study again and it was worse
Are humans to blame for CC?
General circulation models:
Try and map the present and see whats going to happen in the future
We have very large ranges because some people are more
conservative with their models

Not seeing these extremists but people are modeling what happens if
we get a pulse shift
If permafrost all melts in the ocean and we get a pulse
Last glacial maximum had decrease 5 degrees Celsius
Start to have mild winter: insects will have some problems
Wont kill back some species that grow very quickly
May be more storms, increase in snow fall, and greater drought
Because it is not happening evenly over the world; dry getting drier
and wet getting wetter
Debate: hurricanes may get bigger
Uncertainty:
We dont know the process of how species are currently distributed
and abundantly distributed
Dont know how much humans will change the environment
Dont know what the climate is exactly going to do
International Tundra Experiment:
International collaboration: requiring humans to work together to
tackle difficult topics
Have similar types of test so data can overlap and do meta-data
analysis to try and figure out what is going on globally
Showing: increase height and cover of deciduous grass and shrubs
o Decrease cover of mosses and lichens
o Definitely decrease in species diversity!!!
Network of Ecosystem Warming Studies:
Above ground NPP; looking at soil conditions, etc
Findings: soil respiration rates increase by 20%; net nitrogen
mineralization organic N N2 rates inc by 46%, NPP increase by
19%

o Releasing more CO2 into the atmosphere

Future direction:
Its likely that plants will start to move and we can project where
plants and animals are moving
However, this isnt always true; sometimes they just climatize
Looked at 134 tree species of U.S. and saw the sugar maples and in
high models will maybe lose the tree
Climate scenario: tree richness will increase in Canada but drought
in California
o We grow most of USA food in California
50% of carbon released through human activities remain in the
atmosphere
the remaining percent is taken up in oceans, but taken up by
carbonic acid and becoming more acidity, dissolving the shells of
some marine animals
terrestrial plants = growing more plants
One of the models:
In the next 100 years, are we going to see more NPP in the
ecosystem; at first we did but 10 years later we saw less in recent
studies, what will happen in the future?
We can have a negative feedback loop, BUT if plants dont respond
as well then wed have a positive feedback loop
Results show great uncertainty in the predicted patterns of carbon
exchange
Projections can either be way off or on point
Main result of the models: 3/5 showed NPP would decrease
Can we do anything about Climate Change and should we?