F R A N C E : A f t e r t h e r e g io na l e le c t i on s ,

i s t h e Pr e s i de nt i a l r a c e f or 2 0 1 7 m or e u nc e r t a i n t ha n e v e r?
De ce mber 15 t h , 2015
A P CO World wi de Fran ce i s plea s ed to pre sen t t hi s la te st e ditio n o f the Fr en ch poli tic al diar y s erie s tha t
we publ is h af ter e ver y maj or ele cti on . Follo wi ng on fro m o ur report o f in Sprin g 20 15 a fter Fr an ce s
depart m ent al el e ctio n s, thi s not e co ver s th e t wo rou nd s of v otin g f or t he re gion al el e ctio ns on De ce mber
6 t h and 13 t h 2015 , the la st ele c toral te st be for e th e 2 017 pre side ntial an d le gi slati v e el ec tio ns .
Our ai m is to put the se re sul t s i n pers pe cti v e a nd to pro vid e a pros pe cti v e anal y si s for people li vin g
out side Fra n ce i n par ti cular , or who don t f ollo w ele c tor al de velo p men t s clo sel y . Que s tion s i nclu de: Wh o
are th e ke y pl a yer s an d o ppo sin g f orce s ? Ho w are the y e vol vin g? Wh at i s the fu ture ou tloo k? W hat
reperc us si on s will the ele cti on re s ult s ha ve o n relati on s with lo cal en titi es ?
Ca mpai gning for th es e ele cti on s wa s di sru pte d b y the Nov e mber 1 3 t h terrori st a tta c k s an d th e d e clarati o n
of a sta te of e merge n cy . Furt her more, in a cli ma te do min ate d b y risi ng u ne mpl o y men t a nd the mi grant s
cri si s a ff ec tin g Fran ce a nd Europe , v otin g wa s on ce a gain mar ked b y a f o cu s on na tion al i s sue s - e ven
thou gh the se were th e firs t lo ca l ele c tion s o f th eir kind , in v ol ving 13 ( as op po sed to 22) ne w, larg er
region s wi th grea ter p o wer s. V oter s al so e xpre s se d on ce again their serio u s di s con te nt wi th th e
traditio nal poli ti cal cl a s s, puni s hing th e Lef t ( mai nl y the So ciali s t P art y, led b y Pre siden t H ollande) an d
the Ri ght ( mai nly Le s R publi ca i n s part y le d b y for m er Pre si dent Ni cola s Sar ko z y) , to gi ve t he Far Ri ght
part y ( the Na tion al Fron t led b y Marin e Le P en ) , a 27 % sh are of vo te s i n the 2 n d rou nd. The Natio nal
Front led the ballo t in the firs t rou nd o f ele c ti ons in 6 re gion s and c a me o ut wi th the high e st nu mb er of
vo te s na tion all y (28 %) , foll o we d b y th e Rig ht (27 %) and the n th e So ciali s t part y (2 3 %) . Al t hough i n th e
end the Natio nal Fro nt fail ed to t ak e the pre si den c y of an y regio n, it ha s triple d i t s nu mb ers of regio na l
cou n cilor s i n mainl and Fran ce co m pared t o t he 201 0 re gion al ele cti on s ( it no w ha s 31 6 c oun cilor s, v s.
708 for the Ri ght a nd 551 f or t he So ciali st part y) . Th e se Nati onal Front cou n cilor s will be the sole
oppo siti on for ce in t wo major regio ns ( Nord- P as- d e- Calai s- Pi cardie an d Pro ve n ce - Alpe s- Cte d A zur).
In thi s sh ort a nal y si s, we fo cu s fir st on th e m ain le s so n fro m t hi s el ec tion : the po wer o f th e ele c torat e
and their willin gne s s to ca st th eir poli ti cal dif f eren ce s a si de and turn o ut i n l arge nu mb ers to v ote ag ain st
the Natio nal Fro nt o n the 2 n d round ( se e pag e 2) . Se con dl y, we anal y ze the i m pa ct o f thi s ele c tion o n
the wee k s and mon th s ahe ad, loo ki ng for ward to 201 7 (pa ge s 3 a nd 4).
We hop e yo ull e njo y re ading an d, a s u s ual, we wel co me your c o m men t s a nd fee dba c k.
The A P CO Pari s te a m
ABOUT APCO WORLDWIDE
F ou n de d i n 1 98 4 , an d op e ra ti ng i n F ra n ce si nc e 19 96 , A P C O W or l dw i d e i s a n i nd ep en d en t gl ob al co m m uni c a ti o n , s t ak eh ol d er
e n ga ge m en t an d bu si ne ss s t ra t eg y fi r m w i th o f fi c e s i n m or e th an 30 maj o r ci ti e s t h ro ug ho u t th e w o rl d . W e c ha l l e nge
c o nv en t i o nal t hi nki n g a nd i n spi r e m ov e me n t s to h el p ou r cl i e n ts s uc ce ed i n a n e v er - c ha ngi ng w o rl d . S t a ke hol d e r s a r e a t th e
c o r e o f al l w e d o . We t u r n th e i ns i g h ts t h a t co m e f rom o u r de e p s t a ke hol de r r el a ti o n shi ps i n t o f o rw a r d -l oo ki ng , c r ea ti v e
s ol u ti on s t ha t al w a ys p us h t he b o u nd a ri e s . A P C O c l i e n t s i ncl ud e l a rg e m ul ti na ti on al c o mp ani e s , t ra d e a s s oci a ti on s,
g o ve r n me n ts , N G O s a nd ed uc a ti on al i ns ti t u ti on s .
F o r m o re i n fo r m a ti o n , pl ea s e co n ta c t A P C O W o rl dw i d e ( 1 2 bi s r ue K epl e r , 7 50 16 P a ri s , F r an ce , + 33 1 44 9 4 8 6 66 ) o r vi s i t
w w w .a pc ow o rl dw i d e .c o m o r w w w .a p cow o rl d w i d e . co m / f re n ch

2015 APCO Worldwide Inc. All rights reserved.

1 / K e y p o in t s : V o t e rs a r e s t r o ng e r t ha n p o l i t i c a l
p a r t ie s
A weak victory for the Right . Althoug h th e Ri ght wa s
hoping for a cl ear vic tor y in the re giona l elec tion s ,
building on it s vi ct orie s i n th e 201 4 muni cip al a nd t h e
Mar ch 2 015 d epart m ent al ele ct ion s ( winn i ng 2/3 o f
Fran ce s one hundre d d epart m ent s), thi s wa s n ot the
ca se on thi s el e ctio n s. The Ri ght d id win 7 of th e 1 3
region s in m ainla nd Fra n ce, in clu ding Il e- de- F ranc e ( t h e
Grea ter Pari s Reg ion, whi ch had be en held b y the Le ft
for the p a st 17 ye ars) an d s o me tra ditio na l so cia li s t
stro ngho ld s, su ch a s Nord - Pa s- d e- Calai s- Pi c ardie, an d
Pro ve nc e - A lpe s- C te- d A zur (P A CA ) and Norm and y .
Ho we ver , the se vi ctor ie s were mai nl y d ue to t he t a cti cal
wi thdra wal of So ci ali st Par t y can dida te s be t ween t he 1 s t
and th e 2 n d rou nd and the stron g turno ut o f vo ters in t h e
2 n d roun d t o bl o ck t he Nati onal Fro nt .
Les Rpublicains (right-wing & centre-right alliance)
Wit h i t s propo sal s o n s ec urit y and t he fi g ht agai ns t
terroris m ta ke n b y the G o vern me nt i n t he a ft erma th of
Socialist Party, Union of the Left and other Leftist parties
the P aris at ta c k s, the Rig ht s truggle d t o ta ke a
Corsican nationalists
co m m andi ng p o sitio n o v er th e Far Ri ght . T h e
unc o mpro mi sin g nei ther - nor p osi tion cho s en b y it s
F r a n c e s ma in la n d n e w p o lit ic a l c o lo r s in
leader, Ni col as Sar ko z y ( o ppo sin g a ny sup p ort t o Le ft
r e g io n s a ft e r t h e e le c t io n
wi ng c andid ate s or re mo v al o f the Righ t ca n dida cie s ) ,
arou sed stro ng criti ci s m b oth i n side and o ut si de th e part y . T hi s po si tion co ntra st ed wi th the respo nsi bl e
st an ce ad opt ed b y the S oci ali st Par t y, whi ch wi thdre w it s ca ndid ate s in c ertain region s i n o rder to gi ve
the Righ t a bet ter ch an ce to def eat th e Natio nal Fr ont . A s a re sult , Ni c ola s Sar ko z y i s fin d ing it dif fi cult
to sub s tan tiat e hi s po si tioni ng a nd e m erge a s t he u ndi spu ted l ead er of the Righ t, p arti cul arly sin ce h e
has str ong int ernal criti c i s m in Le s R publi c a ins p art y s u ch a s Al ain Jupp , Bruno L e M aire a nd hi s
for mer Pri me Mi ni ster Fran o i s Fillo n. Wi th al l of the m r unnin g in the 201 7 pri mar y ele ctio n of the part y
for th e Pre siden tial ra ce , t hi s lea ve s the primarie s on No ve mb er 20 t h and 2 7 t h nex t year wi de o pen . A
natio nal coun cil dedi ca ted to th e de finiti on o f the p art y line will be hel d on Februar y 13 t h and 1 4 t h t o
atte m pt to uni te the variou s fa c tion s and ap p oint a n e w part y lead ers hip.
The Left is spared from a bruising defeat. Alt houg h ann oun ce d the m ajor l o ser i n th e se el ec tion s
before hand , i n ma nagin g to hang on to 5 regio ns , t he S o ciali st Part y s def eat wa s s maller th an e xp e cte d .
A s a re sul t, m ini s ter s (in offi c e or out goin g) v ying for regio nal of fi ce ma nage d to b e ele ct ed ( Jean- Y ve s
Le Dri an, t he c urrent Mini s ter for Def en ce in Brit tan y an d Carole Del ga, t he for mer Se cret ary of St ate
in ch arge o f S M E s , Tra de, Cr aft Ind us trie s, Co n su mer Af fair s and S o cial e con o m y , in Langu edo cRou s sillon - Mi di- P yr ne s) . Pre sid ent Hollan d es 5 0 % ap pro val rati ng in opi nion p olls follo wi ng the Pari s
atta c k s wa s not en ough t o redre s s the bal an c e. Ha ving wit hdra wn t a cti call y fro m three regi ons t o blo c k
the Nati onal Fro nt, th e So ci ali st P art y n ot onl y l os t co ntrol of hi stori call y lef t - win g regi on s, but will h a ve
no l oc al c oun cilor s in t wo of th es e re gion s . Las tl y, while the el e ctio n co uld fa v or s mall p artie s, th e s e
elec tion s co nf irm e d the di sapp earan ce of th e far l eft of the So ciali s t Part y , sin ce non e of t heir li st s
attra ct ed eno ugh s upp ort to m a ke i t throug h t o th e 2 n d roun d .
2015 APCO Worldwide Inc. All rights reserved.

Confirmed support for the National Front . The regi onal ele c tion s con fir m th at th e Nat io nal Fron t i s
deepl y roo ted in the Fren ch poli ti cal la nd s ca pe, con soli dati ng t he tren d th at e merg ed duri ng the 2 014
mu ni cipal an d 201 5 dep art men tal ele c tion s . While the Far Righ t re ap s th e full be nefi t s of prop ortion a l
repres ent atio n of th e re gion al ele cti on s and t he ten se a nd an xi ou s politi c al and so cio - e c on omi c cli ma t e
that re sona te s with it s i deolo g y, i t i s cle ar th at t he p art y h a s de fini te su pport ers and no l o nger merel y
attra ct s prote s t v ote s . Sin ce t he la st re gional ele c tion s in 2010 , th e Na tiona l Fron t ha s a tt ract ed thr e e
ti me s a s man y vot ers in the 2 n d ro und (2 mill ion vo te s in 20 10 v ers us 7 million to da y) a n d wa s ou t in
front in si x regio n s at t he en d of t he 1 s t round in f a ct, the p art y a chie v ed it s be s t e ver res ult, wi nnin g
more vo te s tha n i n all the pre vio u s el e ctio n s co m bined . M arine Le Pe ns ( Natio nal Fron t l e ader) e ffor ts
to t urn the part y m ain str ea m did n ot c on vin c e th e maj orit y o f vo ter s t hou gh . Alth oug h t h e tradi tion al
partie s f ailed to wi n o ver Natio nal Front su p porter s, the m ajorit y o f Fre nc h vot ers turne d out in l arge
nu mber s during t he 2 n d rou nd (p arti cipa tion r ate s of aroun d 60 %, 10 poin t s more t han in 2 010) to blo c k
the Nati onal Fron t fr o m gai ning c ontrol of an y region , e ve n if the y did not supp ort the S o cia list Part y or
Les Rpubli c a in s p oli cie s.

2 / A s it u a t io n t ha t w i l l n e e d c a re f u l m o n it o r in g : W ha t w i l l b e t he i m p a c t i n c o m i n g m o n t hs o n
p o l i c ie s a nd t h e e c o n o my ?
Local impact s: new regions must face a reality check. Franoi s Holl ande follo wed thr ough o n hi s
elec tion pro mi se f or territorial re for m, redi s tributin g the po wer o f th e region al au thoriti e s to ne w regio na l
cen tre s, redu ci ng the n u mber of regi on s fro m 22 t o 1 3 , e xt endin g their de m ograph i c , e con o mi c and
geograp hi c re a ch and m aki ng th e m th e m ain i nter medi arie s for deali ng wi th bu sin e ss e s on a d ay to da y
basi s . The fir st re spo n sibilit y o f t he se ne w reg ion al c entre s will be to ele c t their Pr esi den t ( t he so- calle d
the " 3 r d rou nd of th e ele cti on) . T he six re g ion s th at re main u n chan ged (Ile- d e- Fran c e, Cor s ica , Cen tre Val- d e- Loire, Bri tta ny , P A CA a nd Pa y s de l a Loire) will do so o n De ce m ber 18 t h . T he se ve n o ther n e wl y
ex tend ed regi on s will ele ct their cou n cil s on Jan uar y 4 t h , af ter a tran siti on perio d , d uring whi ch urge nt
or ong oing bu si ne s s i s ma nage d by t he ou tgoi ng Pre sid ent , i n the ne w re gion s pro vi sio nal a dmi ni strat iv e
cen ter ( see ma p on p age 2 ) . Th e na m es and defini t i ve lo ca tion s o f th e se ad m ini stra ti ve ce nter s will be
con fir med be fore J ul y 1 s t 201 6 so th at the y c an b e e na cte d in to la w b y O ct ober 1 s t .
Wit h a do mi nan t role in e c ono mi c d ev elop m ent an d bu sin e s s a s sis tan c e , t he regio n s wi ll also ha ve
greater p o wer o v er urban plan ning , s u stai nab le de velo p men t, the m ana ge men t o f Europ ea n fun d s and
tra n sport , e x cl uding urba n tr an sport . The y will al so be free to try ou t n e w wa y s to c oordin ate the pla y ers
and ac ti viti es in vol v ed i n h elping t he une mp loye d b a c k in to wor k (e x clu ding Ple E mplo i , t he S tat e
em plo y me nt agen c y) as wel l a s ha ving a s ay on vo ca tion al trai ning s c he me s . Their m ain r esp on sibili t y
on th e se i s su es will be f or s ched uling , pla nni ng an d sup portin g t he a c ti vitie s of the lo cal c oun cil s wi thin
their regio n. The y will ha ve li m ite d roo m f or ma noe uvre on fi nan ci al is s ue s t houg h , a s t he Sta te will
kee p a fir m h and o n ta xa tion . F or e x a mple , al thou gh th e ne w Fren c h re gion s are co m parab le in si ze t o
the G er man L nder , their sta tu s a s e con o mi c play ers will be very diff erent . Th e G erm a n L nder m ana g e
budge t s o f 31 9 b illi on, co m pared to 29 billi on for the 13 Fren ch m ainlan d regio n s. Pl us , the re gion s
will al so fa ce co m pe titio n fro m m ajor me trop olitan area s su ch a s L yo n or Mar seill e, whi ch als o gai ned
gr eater po wers un der t he territoria l ref or ms .
The u nique si tua tion s in Nord- Pa s- de- Calai s- Pi cardi e and P A CA , wh ere Le s Rpub lic a in s won on the
2 n d round t han k s to t he ta c ti cal wi thdra wal o f the So cial is t Part y a ft er the 1 s t round wi ll ha v e an i mpa c t
on d ay t o d ay bu si ne s s a s th e Nati onal Fron t will be t he uniqu e o ppo si tion for ce in bot h t he se regio ns .

2015 APCO Worldwide Inc. All rights reserved.

National impact s: many major open-ended questions remain in the run up to 2017: The ele ctio n s
resul t s ha v e shif ted th e la nd s cap e regio nall y and de sign ed a ne w b a ck drop for t he 2017 presi den tial
race . Ma n y u n kno wn s re mai n for t he wee k s a nd mo nth s ah ead:
Wha t te a m will t he So ciali s t go vern m ent ch o ose to pre pare for 2 017? Wh at i mp a ct will th is le s ser
defe at ha ve on the go ver n men tal re sh uf fle i ni tiall y d ue to ta ke pla ce af ter the regio nal el e c tion s but
whi ch h as no w bee n pu t ba c k to 2 016 due to t he st ate of e m ergen c y (in for ce until th e end o f
Febru ar y) and t he bu s y wor kloa d o f m ini st ers during thi s perio d . W il l we s ee a m ajor re sh uf f le or ju st
a re vie w mini str y by mini s try ?
Where a s the p oliti cal cli ma te ap pear s un cer t ain and hi ghl y fo cu s ed on 20 17, the go v ern me nt s till
has se v eral major ref orm s to intro du ce in 2 0 16 . T he se in cl ude t he Bill for di gital d e velop me nt , the
Bill for t he pro mo tion o f n e w e con o mi c opp o rtunitie s ( calle d No , led b y th e E c ono m y Mini s ter,
E m ma nuel M a cron), the Bill on the tran spare nc y o f e co no mi c a c ti vitie s ( call ed Sapi n 2 t o addre s s
lobb ying a nd th e s et ting u p of a regi st er o f intere st repr es ent ati ve s ), a la bor l a w ref orm an d the
Bill on eq ualit y an d citi z en ship The y all pr ovid e oppor tuni tie s for bu sine s s and p ubli c p layer s to
ta ke po siti on tha t sho uld not be a ffe c ted b y t he f o cu s o n the up co mi ng Pre si den tial ele cti o n.
Is Fran ce h eadi ng to ward s a ne w poli ti cal m ix? Ten sio n s bot h wit hin th e So ciali st P art y and Le s
Rpub lic a in s on t he poli ti cal line to be ad opt ed s hould sp eed up ev ent s a head of th e Pr e side ntia l
elec tion and politi c al re shu ffle . Will we se e t he Le ft u nitin g, or the Ri ght and Cen tre con f irm t heir
allian ce t o blo c k the Natio nal Fro nt? Will t h e So ci alis t Part y an d Le s Rp ubli cai ns i m plo de and a
real Ce ntri st par ty e m erge? Will we see th e crea tion o f a co alitio n bet wee n Centr e L ef t an d Centre
Ri ght ?
A s a firs t re sha ping of t he p oliti c al l and s ca pe , s e veral he av y weig ht can dida te s fro m the Ri ght who
won t he 2 n d ro und h a ve alre ad y an noun c ed the y ren o un ce their o ther lo c al or na tion al ma nda te s
( more tha n t he l a w o blige s the m t o do ) or t he pri marie s for the 201 7 pre sid enti al run , t o be full y
dedi cat ed to t heir region : Xa vier B ertran d in N ord - Pa s- d e- Calai s- Pi cardi e, Chri sti an E stro si i n P A CA
or V alrie P cre s se i n Il e- de- Fra n ce.
Will we hear more fro m th e ne w, n on - poli ti cal p artie s t hat e merge d during the re giona l elec tion
ca m paign d enou n cing th e Nati onal Fr ont s p rogram ( f or e xa m ple Pierre Ga tta z , Pre si de nt of th e
Me def ( E mpl o yer s Org ani za tion) on the Nat ional Fro nt s e co no mi c pro gra m, a nd se vera l union s
repres enti ng ci vil ser van t s or CE O s in r egion s at ris k) ? Will the y gro w in stren gth a nd dri ve a ne w
for m o f citi z en ship ?
Ma n y k e y i ss ue s still need to b e ad dre ss ed, whet her th e y were part o f th e regio nal ele c tio n deba te s
or n ot, su c h a s re ver sing u ne mpl oy m en t, re sol vin g th e m igra n t s cri si s, se c urit y a s we ll a s t he
attra ct iv ene s s o f Fra nc e , it s ta x burd en, pen s ions fina n cing , the weig ht o f th e nat ional deb t, ho w to
live to get her, si mplif yi ng Fren c h la w, et c . A f ter t he 2 n d rou nd, ke y fig ure s fro m b oth th e Left an d
Ri ght call ed for a ch ange in e mpha si s a nd po s itio n t o blo c k the Nati onal Front . W hat p oliti cal for ce( s )
will be bol d e nou gh to s eiz e thi s o pport unit y ?

2015 APCO Worldwide Inc. All rights reserved.