AN ECONOMIC MODEL DEMONSTRATING THE LONG-TERM

COST BENEFITS OF INCORPORATING FERTILITY CONTROL

INTO WILD HORSE (EQUUS CABALLUS) MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS ON PUBLIC LANDS IN THE UNITED STATES
Charles W. de Seve, Ph.D., and Stephanie L. Boyles Griffin, M.S.

Journal of Zoo and Wildlife Medicine 44(4S): S34S37, 2013

Copyright 2013 by American Association of Zoo Veterinarians

AN ECONOMIC MODEL DEMONSTRATING THE LONG-TERM

COST BENEFITS OF INCORPORATING FERTILITY CONTROL
INTO WILD HORSE (EQUUS CABALLUS) MANAGEMENT PROGRAMS ON PUBLIC LANDS IN THE UNITED STATES
Charles W. de Seve, Ph.D., and Stephanie L. Boyles Griffin, M.S.

Abstract: In recent years, the Bureau of Land Managements (BLM) Wild Horse and Burro Management
program costs have increased dramatically due to a rise in the number of animals removed from public lands
coupled with significantly decreased adoption rates. To assist with development and implementation of effective,
cost-containing management programs, a robust economic model to project the costs and optimize outcomes of
various management scenarios was created. For example, preliminary demonstration model runs show that by
gradually replacing removal-only programs with contraception-and-removal programs on one hypothetical
Herd Management Area (HMA), the BLM could save about US$8 million over 12 years while maintaining an area
target population of 874 horses. Because the BLM estimates that more than 38,000 wild horses roam on 179
HMAs in the United States, the use of this economic model could result in a cost-savings of tens of millions of
dollars if applied broadly across all HMAs.
Key words: Bureau of Land Management, economic model, Equus caballus, fertility control, porcine zona
pellucida, wild horses.

BRIEF COMMUNICATION
The Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros
Act of 1971 (Public Law 92195)13, as amended,
directs the Bureau of Land Management (BLM)
to manage wild horse herds by setting appropriate management levels (AMLs). AMLs are
estimates of the optimum number of wild horses
which results in a thriving natural ecologic
balance and avoids deterioration of the range
for each Herd Management Area (HMA). As of
February 2012, the BLM estimates that approximately 37,300 wild horses and burros (31,500
horses and 5,800 burros) exist on 179 HMAs that
comprise 31.6 million acres of public lands, of
which 26.9 million are under BLM management.10
Herds can grow at an average rate of 20%
annually.2,3,4 When herd populations exceed established AMLs, the BLM conducts roundups to
remove excess animals from HMAs, and roundups
occur every 35 yr to ensure BLM complies with
the requirements of the amended act. Removed
animals are transported to long-term government
holding pastures in the Midwest where they are
From American Economics Group, Inc., 6512 Lakeview
Drive, Falls Church, Virginia 22041, USA (de Seve); and
from The Humane Society of the United States, 700
Professional Drive, Gaithersburg, Maryland 20879, USA
(Boyles Grifn). Correspondence should be directed to Ms.
Boyles Grifn (sboyles@humanesociety.org).

cared for in perpetuity or, to a lesser extent each

year, adopted by private individuals.
From 1971 to 2012, the BLM has removed over
300,000 wild horses and burros from the range
and adopted out more than 230,000 animals.10,12
However, in recent years the number of animals
removed from the range and placed in long-term
holding has far exceeded the number adopted or
sold; adoption demand has fallen in response to
the U.S. economic recession and other factors.
According to the BLMs data reports for 2000
through 2012, over 121,000 animals were removed from the range while only 62,000 were
adopted or sold. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2012, 66%
fewer animals (i.e., 2,598) were adopted compared
to FY 2002 when the BLM adopted out 7,746
animals.10
The remaining 46,500 animals have been placed
in government holding facilities and, as a result,
off-the-range wild horse and burro management
costs have increased dramatically.10 In FY 2012
alone, the cost of holding and caring for these
animals exceeded $43 million59% of the $72.4
million in total annual expenditures for the entire
wild horse and burro management program.10
BLM is committed to caring for these animals,
but the costs associated with their care will
continue to increase because mortality rates in
captivity are low, the average life span of wild
horse and burros in captivity is approximately 30
yr, and every year the agency continues to remove
more animals from the range and place them in
additional holding facilities. This situation will

S34

DE SEVE AND BOYLES GRIFFINWILD HORSE MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC MODEL

result in exponentially increasing holding costs

that will continue to rise as holding facilities
become scarce and operators increase their prices,
a trend now evident. Unless the agency develops
and implements long-term management strategies
to reduce the number of removals by reducing
population growth rates on-the-range, the current
removal-only approach seems doomed by inevitable budget constraints off-the-range.
Fertility control is a viable alternative to the
current wild horse management regime. In early
2012, the Environmental Protection Agency
(EPA) registered the first contraceptive vaccine
for wild horses commonly known as porcine zona
pellucida (PZP) and registered under the brand
name ZonaStat-H.11 Fertility control techniques
and immunocontraception vaccines have been
shown to be safe, humane, reversible,8 and capable
of stabilizing and reducing wild horse populations
over time, either when used alone or when
combined with other wild horse population
growth suppression methods.5,6,9 A United States
Geological Survey (USGS) economic study1 also
demonstrated that reducing wild horse population growth rates through the combined use of
fertility control drugs and sex ratio adjustments
may reduce the need and frequency of removals
which, in turn, could lead to long-term reductions
in off-the-range management costs. This study
estimated that fertility control on-the-range could
reduce total wild horse and burro management
costs by 14%, saving $6.1 million per year. The
question is how to implement a humane and
efficient cost-saving management plan.
Currently the BLM uses WinEquus, a stochastic wild horse population model, to evaluate
possible management actions and select preferred
alternatives, but the model does not calculate any
costs associated with various management options.7 The model cannot optimize management
options, compare the combined removal and
holding costs of alternative management plans,
loop through multiple ranges to help build an
efficient overall strategy, or simulate multi-year
planning.
To assist the BLM in developing and implementing a long-term plan to maintain healthy wild
horse and burro herd populations, a robust
economic model to project the costs and outcomes of various management regimes was created which can be used by the agency to plan
effective, cost-beneficial programs. The management system is designed to simulate range populations and alternative BLM management
interventions and costs in either a single HMA
or over multiple HMAs. It employs not only

S35

simulation methods but also optimization. Thus,

it can help make sound management decisions
under uncertainty, including allocating resources
and reducing costs. The modeling incorporates
stochastic simulations, conventional optimization, and stochastic optimization. There are four
sub-models in the overall model framework: The
Dynamic Population Simulation Model, The
Economic Costing Model, The Management
Intervention and Optimization Model, and The
Population and Range Database System.
Recognizing the sparse data currently available
for wild horse populations, the database system
incorporates techniques for simulating missing
data. It also guides the user to track range
management results and enter additional data as
the years pass, helping to initiate sound data
collection procedures on the range and from
contractors hired to conduct gathers. As with
range data, missing cost items can be approximated or simulated using appropriate BLM
assumptions.
BLM could use the model to decide on the
optimum number and locations of round-ups,
agesex gather targets, fertility control elements,
and remove:release ratios in order to allocate a
fixed total budget, thus selecting the best
limited set of gathers, or allocate to minimize
cost in a single year or over multiple years to
reach annual or overall population targets. The
model might also optimize to control costs by
suggesting adjustments to consider to HMA
target populations or AMLs.
To demonstrate, using a hypothetical HMA
with a target population of 874 animals, initial
model runs over a 12-yr period demonstrate that
the no management alternative, meaning no
round-ups, removals, or contraception (or any
combination thereof ), is incapable of maintaining
the target population and would lead to an
exponential population growth rate that is not
desirable or sustainable, as the population would
rise from under 874 to over 6,000 in 12 yr (Fig. 1a,
b). A model run of a typical removal-only
management regime, where animals are removed
from the HMA at years 3, 7, and 11, shows that
such a scenario is capable of maintaining a
population at or near the target population level
(Fig. 1a.) but at a cost of over $13 million over 12
yr (Table 1).
A lower cost approach uses a contraceptionand-removal management program where during
a gather some animals are removed, selected by
age and sex, but a high proportion of the mare
population is treated with fertility control drugs
and released. Population projections for years 3,

S36

JOURNAL OF ZOO AND WILDLIFE MEDICINE

Figure 1. Example economic model output for a hypothetical Herd Management Area (HMA) with a target
management population of 874 animals. The model simulates the difference in population growth rates over a 12yr period when no management is conducted on the HMA versus (a) removal-only and (b) contraception-andremovals at years 3, 7, and 11.

7, and 11 show that such a management scheme

will both maintain the target population level
(Fig. 1b.) and reduce management costs by
approximately $8 million over 12 yror $5.9
million present value compared to the removal
only scenario (Table 1). Note that even a

suboptimal effectiveness of PZP can achieve

substantial population control and cost savings.
The model is flexible and, while these demonstration runs are based on realistic working
assumptions provided by experts in the field,
virtually all inputs can be adjusted to see the

DE SEVE AND BOYLES GRIFFINWILD HORSE MANAGEMENT ECONOMIC MODEL

S37

Table I. Example of economic model output results of 12-yr contraception-and-removals versus removalsonly scenarios.

Total horses to holding over 12 yr

Average range pop. over 12 yr
AMLa
Average difference from AML (%)
Total gather and treatment costs
Total holding costs
Total cost (sum of years)
Total cost (present value)
a

Contraception and removals

Removals only

Change (%)

798
910
874
4.1
$2,435,523
$5,560,426
$7,995,949
$5,852,135

1,790
982
874
12.4
$2,634,579
$10,694,712
$13,329,290
$9,314,090

55.4
7.3

7.6
48.0
40.0
37.2

AML appropriate management levels.

impact of other conditions, to test the limits of the

model, the risks of other outcomes, or to use other
assumptions. The examples here describe the
population in an individual HMA while the
gold-standard model would be a simultaneous
collection of model runs for multiple, or all,
HMAs in order to calculate the full population
impact and the total cost to the agencys budget.
BLM estimates that there are approximately
38,000 wild horses and burros roaming on 179
HMAs located on public rangelands in 10 Western states. If about $8 million could be saved by
implementing the proposed management scheme
at one HMA over 12 yr, it stands to reason that
such an approach could result in a cost-savings of
tens of millions of dollars, if applied across all
HMAs, recognizing the size differences among
ranges.
Given current budget constraints imposed on
federal and state wildlife and land management
agencies, the hybrid population and economic
model describe here could be used to develop and
support the implementation of cost-effective and
long-term wildlife and land management programs. It is clear to us that BLM and other
agencies should invest more resources into both
modeling and population growth suppression
methods.

LITERATURE CITED
1. Bartholow, J. M. 2008. Economic benefit of
fertility control in wild horse populations. J. Wildl.
Manage. 71: 28112819.
2. Eberhardt, L. L., A. K. Majorowicz, and J. A.
Wilcox. 1982. Apparent rates of increase for two feral
horse herds. J. Wildl. Manage. 46: 367374.
3. Garrott, R. A., T. C. Eagle, and E. D. Plotka. 1991.
Age-specific reproduction in feral horses. Can. J. Zool.
69: 738743.

4. Garrott, R. A., and L. Taylor. 1990. Dynamics of a

feral horse population in Montana. J. Wildl. Manage.
54: 603612.
5. Gross, J. E. 2000. A dynamic model for evaluating
effects of removal and contraception on genetic
variation and demography of Pryor Mountain wild
horses. Biol. Conserv. 96: 319330.
6. Hobbs, N. T., D. C. Bowden, and D. L. Baker.
2000. Effects of fertility control on populations of
ungulates: general, stage-structured models. J. Wildl.
Manage. 64: 473491.
7. Jenkins, S. H. 1996. WinEquus wild horse population model version 3.2. University of Nevada, Reno.
8. Kirkpatrick, J. F., and A. Turner. 2002. Reversibility of action and safety during pregnancy of
immunization against porcine zona pellucida in wild
mares (Equus caballus). Reproduction 60(Suppl. 2):
197202.
9. Kirkpatrick, J. F., and A. Turner. 2008. Achieving
population goals in long-lived wildlife species (Equus
caballus) with contraception. Wildl. Res. 35: 513519.
10. U.S. Department of Interior, Bureau of Land
Management, Wild Horse and Burro Quick Facts.
http://www.blm.gov/wo/st/en/prog/whbprogram/
history_and_facts/quick_facts.html. Accessed 1 February 2012.
11. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. 2012.
Pesticide factsheet: porcine zona pellucida, January
2012.
12. http://www.epa.gov/pesticides/chem_search/
reg_actions/pending/fs_PC-176603_01-Jan-12.pdf.
Accessed 30 January 2012.
13. U.S. General Accounting Office. 2008. Bureau of
Land Management: Effective, Long-term Options
Needed to Management Unadoptable Wild Horses.
U.S. General Accounting Office, GAO/RCED-90-110,
Washington, D.C.
14. Wild Free-Roaming Horses and Burros Act of
1971, Pub. L. No. 92195, 85 Stat. 649 (1971). 16 U.S.C.
Ch. 30: Wild Horses And Burros: Protection, Management, and Control.
Received for publication 4 April 2013