Department of Civil Engineering \ Transportation

Faculty of Engineering & Built Environment

The National University of Malaysia
Semester I - Session 2015/2016

Urban Transport Planning

Task 3 / Modal Shift

Name Student
Ameer Abdul Adheem Hussein
P81466
Lecturer
PROF. DATO' IR. DR RIZA ATIQ ABDULLAH BIN
O.K. RAHMAT
Task 3 \\

(a) In an effort to reduce traffic congestion, a city administrator is drawing up a plan to

influence modal shift from private car to public transport. If you are the administrator, explain
briefly all necessary measures that you think will influence the shift effectively.

(b) State preference survey has been conducted to study the effect of reduction in bus travel time
in influencing modal shift. The aggregated data of the survey is given in Table 1. Choose a
suitable model and calibrate all parameters in your model.

Table 1 Modal Shift

Bus travel time

(Minutes)

Modal shift to buses

40
35
30
25
20

0.05
0.09
0.25
0.50
0.55

Note: Original bus travel time is 45 minutes

Solution \\
(a)
1.State preference survey:
It has been widely used in analyzing modal shift. It is used to
estimate relative importance to various characteristic given by the
users in terms of travel and waiting time, cost, headway mode of

public transport etc. It is also use to analyze the response of users

with given choice of situation. A survey will be conducted where the
respondent are given a various, realistic alternatives. Based on the
results we can learn the importance people attach to each attribute
to the choice they make. The survey may be done by questionnaire
or interview. This data might cause modal shift from private car to
public transport.
Guidelines to be observed in conducting stated preference survey:

Minimize the number of respondents.

Provide adequate background information.

Referendum format.

Conduct personal interview.

Pretest for interview effect.

Include and explain non-response option.

Stated preference survey must be well done in order to meet the
objectives:

To measure willingness to pay.

To investigate effect of attitudes perceptions.

To evaluate acceptability of innovative modes and

services.

To investigate effects of attitudes and perceptions.

The revealed survey then can be use in modal shift analysis. a
combination on both stated and revealed preference data can be
used in order to increase the accuracy for the modal shift analysis.

2.Car Dissuasion:

To make car use less popular, and promote the other modes of
transport by making them more attractive alternatives.
The traveller or users usually compares the strength and weakness
of each mode of transport. A shift can only occur when the user find it
less beneficial compared to the other mode. They compare in terms
of:

Total travel time.

Cost.
Reliability .
Walking distance requires.

Users will only use and find it necessary where there will benefit
either in terms of fares; quality of service and the cost of competing
modes. The quality of public transport is defined by different factors
such as:

Frequency of services.

Time spent on it.

The waiting and travel environment.

Provision of information.

The number of interchanges and the reliability.

Increase the operation of public transport by:

The priority at the traffic signalled intersection were given for

buses and trams.

Improve the reliabilty and travel time by enable them to

bypass congestion and respect their schedules.
This will result in lowering the travel times compared to car traffic
In order to increase the quality services, they should provide and
increase in provision on provision of information on public transport
as how they provide for private transport.
As for private cars, we have new technologies such as they provide
information via website, mobile phone or tv and radio broadcast.
They should provide the same for public transport.
Provide real time information to passengers at bus, train station,
trams etc and also for those who already on board. This will enable
them to compete with the convenience and comfort.
Safety is a crucial thing to be consider in choosing the mode of
transport. This will be an advantage if their safety concerns are met.

Increase the safety for pedestrian by providing wider

pedestrian footpath. Designated pedestrian areas would enhance
the walking function of streets, as they are going to convert
walking into a pleasant experience, more comfortable than driving
in congested road.

Solution \\
(b)
Bus travel time
(Minutes)
40
35

Modal shift to
buses
0.05
0.09

Ln((1-P) / P)
2.944439
2.313635

Reduction in travel
time
5
10

30
25
20

0.25
0.50
0.55

1.098612
0
-0.200671

15
20
25

Summary Output
Regression
Statistics
Multiple R
R Square
Adjusted R
Square
Standard
Error
Observation
s

0.9811
0.96256
0.95008
0.30979
5

ANOVA
Significanc
eF
0.00311

df

SS

MS

1
3
4

7.40263
0.28791
7.69054

7.40263
0.09597

77.1351

Coefficients

Standard
Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower
95%

Intercept

-3.9311

0.6038
9

6.5096

0.0073
6

-5.853

X Variable 1

0.17208

0.01959

8.7826
6

0.00311

0.19072

Regression
Residual
Total

Upper
95%
2.009
3
0.234
43

Lower
95.0 %
-5.853
0.10972

Upper
95.0%
2.0092578
79
0.2344301
85

*Regression analysis being done using EXCEL

1
(Time)
1+D e

D = -3.93110946675208
= 0.172077085568756
model=

1
3.93110946675208+0.172077085568756travel time

1+e

Bus travel time

(Minutes)
40
35
30
25
20

P (model)
0.0496435
0.109917
0.225971
0.4083441
0.6200051

0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4

P
(
m
o
d

0.3
0.2
0.1
0
15

20

25

30

35

Bus travel time (Minutes)

40

45