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A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD TRAFFIC

ACCIDENTS IN DIBRUGARH CITY, ASSAM, INDIA
ARTICLE JANUARY 2011

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2 AUTHORS:
Ajit Goswami

Dr. Ripunjoy Sonowal

Indian Council of Medical Research

Dibrugarh University

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ISSN 1941-689X

A STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN

DIBRUGARH CITY, ASSAM, INDIA
Ajit Goswami* and Ripunjoy Sonowal
Division of Epidemiology and Nutrition, Regional Medical Research Centre,
(Indian Council of Medical Research), N.E. Region, Dibrugarh, Assam, India
Email: agoswami09@gmail.com; ripunjoy_rmrcicmr@yahoo.co.in
ABSTRACT
Background: Road traffic accidents (RTAs) have turned out to be a huge global public
health and development problem. Assam one of the federal states in North East India has a
high rate of accidents and deaths in relation to number of vehicles on the road. Realizing the
need to establish baseline information on RTAs, the present study was conducted in
Dibrugarh city under the jurisdiction of Dibrugarh Police Station, Assam, India.
Methods: Complete RTA data of the year 2009 from case dairies and police records of
Dibrugarh Police station were studied. SPSS (13.0) and Ky-plot software with bivariate
comparisons were used. Data interpretation was done using Degree of freedom, Chisquare
test for goodness of fit, 2 test for independence of attributes and Kruskal-Wallis test.
Results: Human characteristics (rush and negligence) make 95.38% of the total RTAs. 60%
of the accidents were recorded during day time (6 AM to 6 PM). The peak time was between
12 PM to 6 PM (38.46%). The highest numbers of accidents (32.30%) were observed in the
heavy rainy season during the months of July September.
Conclusion: The fewer data on accident reports at police stations are an indicative of lack of
awareness of accidents reporting. RTAs are preventable and in order to combat the problem
there needs to be close coordination and collaboration, using a holistic and integrated
approach, across many sectors and many disciplines.
Key words: RTAs, Degree of freedom, Chisquare test, Kruskal-Wallis test, Dibrugarh

INTRODUCTION:
Accident is an event, occurring suddenly, unexpectedly and inadvertently under
unforeseen circumstances. Road traffic accidents can be defined as An accident that
occurred on a way or street open to public traffic; resulted in one or more persons being
killed or injured, and at least one moving vehicle was involved. Thus, RTA is collisions
between vehicles; between vehicles and pedestrians; between vehicles and animals; or
between vehicles and geographical or architectural obstacles

[1]

. Road traffic accidents

(RTAs) have turned out to be a huge global public health and development problem killing

almost 1.2 million people a year and injuring or disabling between 20-50 million people more.
* Corresponding author

2
The statistical profile reflects that in 2002, an estimated 1.2 million people were killed and
50 million injured in road-traffic crashes worldwide, costing the global community about
US $ 518 billion

[2]

. The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies

have described the situation as a worsening global disaster destroying lives and livelihoods,
hampering development and leaving millions in greater vulnerability [3]. Without appropriate
action, RTAs and its resultant injuries are predicted to escalate dramatically as a global
burden of disease by 2020

[4]

, particularly in rapidly-motorizing countries. In the developing

world, current trends in population growth, industrialization and urbanization are putting
heavy pressure on the transport network in general and on road system in particular. Some of
the unwanted side-effects of this growth in traffic, such as congestion and noise are
immediately obvious to the individual citizen. Others, such as the growing number of deaths
and injuries from RTAs are apparent only through aggregated statistics. Compared to the
cause of death more commonly associated with the developing countries, deaths from road
accidents are by no means insignificant. This reveals a serious and growing problem, with
absolute fatality and casualty figures rising rapidly in the majority of developing countries
and with death rates considerably higher than in the developed world

[5]

. Around 85% of all

road traffic-related deaths in the world occur in developing countries

[6]

. Among the

developed countries like the United States of America, Japan and the United Kingdom trafficrelated death rate (per 100,000 inhabitants per year) stood at 12.3, 3.85 and 3.59 respectively
in the year 2009

[7, 8, 9]

. In addition, Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs) accounts for 30 to 86% of

the trauma admissions to hospitals in low income and middle income countries

[2]

. Reasons

for high burden in road traffic-related deaths and injuries in developing countries are
primarily due to Growth in motor vehicle numbers, Poor enforcement of traffic safety
regulations, Inadequacy of public health infrastructure, Poor access to health services, etc. in
comparison to the developed nations [10]. Apart from the humanitarian aspect of the problem,
traffic accidents and injuries in these countries incur an annual loss of $ 65 billion to
$100 billion annually. These costs include both loss of income and the burden placed on
families to care for their injured relatives.
India has a high incidence of serious road accidents. According to official statistics
0.11 million deaths occurred in India due to road traffic accidents in 2006, which is nearly
10% of the total road traffic deaths in the world

[11]

. A large percentage of injuries go

unreported due to lack of a systematic injury information system. Moreover, the situation in
India is worsening as RTAs and RTIs have been increasing over the past twenty years. This is

3
partly due to the increase in the number of vehicles on the road and partly due to the absence
of a coordinated official policy to control the problem. Assam one of the federal states in
North East India has a high rate of accidents and deaths in relation to number of vehicles on
the road. According to the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) of India

[12]

, the rate of

accidental deaths per 1000 vehicles in Assam stood at 1.9 in the year 2008. Whereas, the
same for the Indian states of Arunachal Pradesh and Sikkim was 5.7 and 3.6 respectively. The
report of the Economic Commission for Europe 2007

[13]

shows that, the rate of accidental

deaths per 1000 vehicles in Liechtenstein was 19.0 followed by France at 15.8 in the year
2003. During the year 2008 a total of 4262 road accidents took place in Assam and 1721
people lost their lives

[14]

. This ever expanding epidemic is likely to take a heavy burden on

the quality of life and socio-economic growth of the state.

Many research studies incorporating different aspect of RTAs have been carried out
by different workers at different times across the globe

[15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20]

. However, such

epidemiological studies from North East India are very much scanty. Moreover, to our
knowledge till date there is no such study ever conducted in Assam. Therefore, realizing the
need to establish baseline information on RTAs, the present study was conducted in
Dibrugarh city (HQ of Dibrugarh district) under the jurisdiction of Dibrugarh Police Station,
Assam, India with the following objectives:

To find whether the accidents are uniformly distributed over the year or not i.e.
whether all the accidents occur with equal frequency.

The seasonal distribution of accidents.

The hourly distribution of accidents.

To find whether all the causes are equally responsible for causing accident.

Research hypotheses
(1) Accidents are uniformly distributed over the year.
(2) Occurrence of accidents is uniform throughout the seasons.
(3) Occurrence of accidents is uniform throughout the hours of the day.
(4) All the causes are equally responsible for causing accidents.

4
MATERIALS AND METHODS:
Study Area:
Dibrugarh, the Tea City of India is situated on the banks of the River Brahmaputra, in
Upper Assam, India and is the gateway to the three tea producing districts of Dibrugarh,
Tinsukia and Sivasagar. Dibrugarh district has the world's largest area covered by tea
gardens. The entire district is surrounded by tea plantations and has many tea factories, most
of the tea gardens are more than 100 years old. The district HQ is located at Dibrugarh city.
The city is well linked by roads, railway, airway and waterway. Earlier transportation within
the city was largely by buses, rickshaws and auto rickshaws. But, recently three and four
wheeled vehicles locally known as "Vikram, Garuda, Magic, etc." have come up in a big way
to help in both within-the-city and also short distance outside the city transportation.
Nature of data:
The present study is based on secondary source of data i.e. from the case diaries and
police records of the accident cases in Dibrugarh Police station. The official records were
available from 2001 2010. Simple random sampling technique was applied that resulted in
the selection of the year 2009. Complete enumeration of data for one calendar year (January
- December 2009) was done. Besides, other relevant informations were collected from the
concerned officials through interviews and personal discussions. It will be pertinent to note
here that, police records mention only the number of accidents occurred and not the type or
nature of accidents i.e. severity of injuries, fatalities or any other medico-legal records.
Statistical Analysis:
Data were analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 13.0
and Ky-plot software with bivariate comparisons. P value below 0.05 was considered as
statistically significant.
Data Interpretation:
The following methods were applied to analyze the data a) Degree of freedom (d.f): The number of independent variants which make up the
statistic (e.g. 2 ) is known as the degree of freedom (d.f.) and is usually denotes by (the
letter Nu of the Greek alphabet).
The number of degree of freedom, in general, is the total number of observational less
the number of independent constraints imposed on the observations. For example, if k is the

5
number of independent constraint in a set of data of n observations then = (n-k). Thus in a
set of n observations usually, the degree of freedom for

are (n-1), one d.f. being lost

because of the linear constraint Oi = Ei = N , on the frequencies. If r independent

i

linear constraint one imposed on the cell frequencies, then the d.f. reduced by r.
In addition, if any of the population parameter(s) is calculated from the given data and

used for computing the expected frequencies then in applying

-test of goodness of fit, we

have to subtract one d.f. for each parameter calculated. Thus ifs is the number of population
parameters estimated from the sample observation (n in number), then the required number of
degree of freedom for

test is (n-s-1).

If any one or more of the theoretical frequencies are less than 5 then in applying 2 test we have also to subtract the degrees of freedom lost in pooling these frequencies with the
preceding or succeeding frequency. In a (r s) contingency table, in calculating the expected
frequencies, the row totals, the column totals remain fixed. The fixation of r column totals
and s row totals imposes (r+s) constraints on the cell frequencies [21]. But since
r

( Ai ) =

i =1

(B

)= N

j =1

the total number of independent constraints is only (r+s-1) (Table 1). Further, since the total
number of the cell frequencies is r+s, the required number of degrees of freedom is

v = rs (r + s 1) = (r 1)(s 1)
b) Chi square test for goodness of Fit: Formulated by Prof. Karl Pearson in 1900, it is a
very powerful test for testing significance of the discrepancy between theory and experiment.
It enables us to find if the deviation of the experiment from theory is just by chance or is it
really due to the inadequacy of the theory to fit the observed data.
If Oi, (i= 1, 2,. . . n) is a set of observed (experimental) frequencies and Ei (i=1, 2, . . .,
n) is the corresponding set of expected (theoretical or hypothetical) frequencies, then Karl
Pearsons Chi-square statistic given by

i =1

( O i E i )2

Ei

(1.1)

n
Oi =
i =1

follows Chi-square distribution with (n-1) d.f.

E
i =1

c)

test for independence of attributes: The 2 - test of independence of attributes is

also applied to test the independence of season and accident, and also to test the
independence of hours of the day and the accident. The test is as follows Let us consider two attributes A and B, A divided into r classes A1, A2,. . ., Ar and B
divided into s classes B1,B2,,Bs. Such a classification in which attributes are divided into
more than two classes is known as manifold classification. The various cell frequencies can
be expressed in the following table known as rs manifold contingency table where (Ai) is
the number of person possessing the attributes Ai, (i=1, 2,, r), (Bj) is the number of person
possessing the attribute Bj (j=1,2,,s) and (AjBj) is the number of person possessing both the
attributes Ai and Bj [ i= 1, 2, , r; j = 1, 2, , s]. Also,
r

i =1

j =1

( Ai ) = ( B j ) = N

is the total frequency.

Table 1: r s Contingency Table

B

A1

A2

...

Ai

...

Ar

Total

B1

(A1B1 )

(A2B1 )

...

(AiBi )

...

(ArB1 )

(B1)

B2

(A1B2 )

(A2B2 )

...

(AiB2 )

...

(ArB2 )

(B2)

(A1Bj )

(A2Bj )

...

(AiBj )

...

(ArBj )

(Bj)

Bs

(A1Bs )

(A2Bs )

...

(AiBs )

...

(ArBs )

(Bs)

Total

(A1)

(A2)

(Ar)

.
.
.

Bj
.
.
.

...

(Ai)

...

The problem is to test if two attributes A and B under consideration are independent or not.
Under the null hypothesis that the attributes are independent, the theoretical cell
frequencies are calculated as follows:
P [Ai] = probability that a person possesses the attribute Ai
A
= ( i ) ; i = 1, 2 , . . . , r
N

P [Bj] = probability that possesses the attribute Bj

=

(B ) ;
j

j = 1, 2 , . .., s

P [Ai Bj] = probability that a person possesses the attributes Ai and Bj = P (Ai) P (Bj)

7
(By compound probability theorem, since the attributes Ai and Bj are independent, under the
null hypothesis)
P[ Ai B j ] =

( Ai ) ( B j ) ,
N

( i = 1, 2,..., r ; j = 1, 2,..., s )

(AiBj) 0 = Expected number of persons possessing both the attributes Ai and Bj

=

(AB )
i

j 0

N .P Ai B j =

( Ai ) ( B j )
N

( Ai ) ( B j )
N

, ( i = 1, 2,..., r ; j = 1, 2,..., s )

By using this formula we can find out expected frequencies for each of the cell
frequencies (AiBj) (i =1, 2,, r; j=1, 2,,s) under the null hypothesis of independence of
attributes. The exact test for the independence of attributes is very complicated but a fair
degree of approximation is given, for large samples (large N), by the chi-square test of
goodness of fit, viz.

i =1

j =1

{( A B ) ( A B ) }
i

(A B )
i

Which is distributed as a 2 - variate with (r-1) (s-1) d.f. Reject the null hypothesis if
calculated 2 > tabulated 2 at 5 % level of significance.
d) Kruskal-Wallis Test (H-Statistic):
This non-parametric test for k (k 2) independent random samples of possibly
different sizes is the non-parametric counterpart of Analysis of Variance (ANOVA). Here the
null hypothesis to be tested is that all of k - population distribution functions are identical.
To compute H-statistic, we first combine all the k-samples, then rank together all the
observations from the smallest to the largest such that rank 1 goes to the smallest and rank

nk to the largest one where N= (n1+n2++ nk). The sum of all N ranks is N ( N

+ 1) .

The

ith sample of size ni is expected to have rank-sum N ( N + 1) . n i if H0 is true. The observed

2

value of the rank-sum for the ith sample is denoted by Ri. Then the Kruskal-Wallis statistic H
is defined as the weighted sum of squares of deviations of Ri from the expected value (under
H0 )

n j ( N + 1)
2

, i.e. as H =

k
N ( N + 1)
12
1
Ri

2
N ( N + 1) i =1 ni

An equivalent form of H, which is simpler for calculations, is

H =

k
Ri2
12
3( N + 1)
N ( N + 1) i =1 ni

Kruskal has shown that if no. ni is small, then H is distributed asymptotically as a chisquare with d.f. = (k-1). The rejection at the level is given by H

> 2 ,( k 1) . When k is

small, say k = 3, and the ni are also small, the 2 - approximation is not good. For such cases
exact probabilities have also been tabulated.
When ties occur, a correction has to be made. The corrected H-statistic is defined as
H

(t
N

Where t = no. of observations tied for a given rank in each sample group.
RESULTS:
a) Chi-square Test for Goodness of Fit Table 2: Calculation for Chi-Square
Months

Observed
frequency

Expected
frequency

January

5.416

February

5.416

March

5.416

April

5.416

May

5.416

June

5.416

July

5.416

August

5.416

September

5.416

October

5.416

November

5.416

December

5.416

Total

65

65

d.f.

Critical 2

Calculated 2

11

19.675

9.762

Table 2 shows a calculated 2 - value of 9.762 for 11 d.f. and a critical 2 - value of
19.675 at 0.05 alpha level. Since the calculated 2 - value is less than the critical 2 - value,
the No. 1 null hypothesis i.e. accidents are uniformly distributed over the year is accepted.
Thus, it indicates that accidents have a uniform distribution over a year.

9
b) Chi-Square Test for Independent of the occurrence of accident and the season Table 3: Association between the Occurrence of Accidents and the Season
Number of accident

=0

>=1

Total

January - March
1st Quarter

77 (74.18)

13 (15.81)

90

April - June
2nd Quarter

73 (74.79)

18 (16.51)

91

July - September
3rd Quarter

71 (75.62)

21 (16.51)

92

October - December
4th Quarter

79 (75.86)

13 (16.17)

92

Total

300

365

d.f.

65
3

Calculated 2

3.0387

Critical 2

7.815

Time or Month

* Expected frequency is in parentheses

Table 3 indicates a calculated 2 - value of 3.0387 and a critical 2 - value of 7.815 at
0.05 alpha level. Since the calculated 2 - value is less than the critical 2 - value the null
hypothesis No. 2 i.e. Occurrence of accidents is uniform throughout the seasons is accepted.
Hence, the number of accidents does not depend on the seasons. Moreover, there is lack of
enough evidence to indicate such a seasonal pattern.
c) Chi-square Test for Goodness of Fit Table 4: Calculation for Chi-Square
Hours

Observed
frequency

Expected
frequency

6.00 AM - 12.00 PM

15

16.25

12.00 PM - 6.00 PM

25

16.25

6.00 PM - 12.00 AM

21

16.25

12.00 AM - 6.00 AM

16.25

Total

65

65

d.f.

Critical 2

7.815

Calculated 2

15.43

Table 4 shows a calculated 2 - value of 15.43 for 3 d.f. and a critical 2 - value of
7.815 at 0.05 alpha level. Since the calculated 2 - value is greater than the critical

10

2 - value, the No. 3 null hypothesis i.e. accidents are uniformly distributed over the hours of
the day is rejected. Thus, it indicates that accidents are not uniformly distributed over the
hours of the day.
Kruskal-Wallis Test Table 5: Quarter wise distribution of causes of accidents
Rush and Negligence

Bad Weather

Defect of Light

st

Quarter

12

nd

2 Quarter

17

3rd Quarter

21

4th Quarter

12

1 Quarter

Using Ky-plot package, we get the following calculation

X

Rank

Rank

Rank

12
12
17
21

9.5
9.5
11
12

0
0
0
1

3
3
3
7

0
0
1
1

3
3
7
7

Table 6: Calculation of Kruskal- Wallis Statistic using Ky-plot software

X

Total

12

Mean

15.5

0.25

0.5

5.416

Variance

19

0.25

0.333

60.81

Median

14.5

0.5

Rank Sum

42

16

20

78

Rank Mean

10.5

6.5

8.26

d.f.

p - value

0.016

Table 6 indicates a calculated 2 - value of 8.26 and the p-value of 0.016 at

0.05 alpha level. Since the p - value is less than 0.05, the 4th null hypothesis i.e. all the causes
are equally responsible for causing accidents is rejected. The result shows that there is a
difference in occurrence of accidents due to different causes.

11
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION:
Analysis of qualitative data gathered during the present study summarizes two
principle factors viz. human and environment as joint significant contributor to the
occurrence of RTAs in Dibrugarh city. Human characteristics (rush and negligence) make the
highest contribution (95.38%; table 5) to the road traffic accidents in the study area. Using
binomial distribution (human errors, not human errors) the 95 percent Confidence Interval
(CI) = 89% to 100%. The environmental factors are related to bad weather and poor road
condition. In the present study, the highest number of accidents (32.30%; table 3) were
observed in the peak rainy season during the months of July - September and the maximum
number of victims were also highest compared to other seasons of the year. The present study
recorded more than 60% of the accidents during day time (6 AM to 6 PM). These times
coincide with the period when people are more active and mobile. The peak time was
between 12 PM to 6 PM (38.46%; table 4). These hours are the busiest as there is heavy rush
of commuters from schools, offices, factories, business places, etc. Between 6 PM to 12 AM
also a high number of RTAs were observed (32.30%; table 4). During this time period the
roads are opened for heavy vehicular movements.
Data on road traffic accidents in Dibrugarh city are very poor. Police records are the
only source of information but, many accident cases are never reported while others are
settled privately. The fewer data on accident reports at police stations are an indicative of lack
of awareness of accidents reporting. Based on police data it is not possible to make routine
analysis and therefore it is impossible to implement safety measures. RTAs are preventable
and in order to combat the problem there needs to be close coordination and collaboration,
using a holistic and integrated approach, across many sectors and many disciplines.
Appendix
Some related information and observations:
Apart from the findings of the present study, the authors would like to share some
additional observations and personal comments related to the causes of road accidents. But,
the findings lack statistical figures as these were not included under the study objectives.
Major human factors that contribute to the potency of accident causation also include alcohol
or drug intake, indecisiveness, fatigue, distraction and confusion. Similar observations of
increased use of alcohol were also made by Mishra et.al. (1984)

[22]

and Gururaj (2001) [23].

In addition, in most of the cases the driver are found to be inexperience, risk taker, impulsive,

12
aggressive and casual and dont know the road signals. It is seen that most of the bikers,
particularly the young boys drive at high speed without wearing safety helmet. Another
important factor that has been noticed in highway accidents in and around the study area is
that most of drivers usually the truck driver never use dipper at night which creates problems
to the vehicle coming from opposite direction.
The condition of most of the traffic markings on the roads of Dibrugarh city are in a
very pathetic state. The speed breakers itself become the cause of many accidents due to no
markings on them. In winter the cause of many accidents is fog which diminished the
visibility and hamper driving. This observation is further corroborated by similar findings of
Dixey (1999)

[24]

, Asogwa (1992)

[25]

and Ogunsaya (1991)

[26]

. During rainy season certain

kinds of stone aggregate become smooth under the constant wearing action of vehicle tyres
leading to poor wet-weather traction. This results in vehicle crashes by increasing braking
distances or contributing to loss of control. Moreover, if the pavement is insufficiently sloped
or poorly drained, standing water on the surface can also lead to wet-weather crashes due to
hydroplaning. Again heavy rain fall creates cracks on the roads which gradually become big
holes, thus making traffic mobility difficult and sometimes cause road accidents.
All these problems become more serious since Dibrugarh and Assam at large are
slowly becoming highly motorized places. Here the same road space is used by modern cars
and buses, along with locally available vehicles for public transport (3-wheeled scooter taxis
and rickshaws), scooters, motorcycles and bicycles. In fine, the following recommendations
are suggested in order to minimize the problem:
1. The role of law enforcing authority is solely important. The use of safety helmet and belt
must be enforced as well as strict rules regarding license issuing, ban of using mobile
phone while driving, etc.
2. The Government and NGOs must create public awareness to prevent road accidents by
organizing seminars, road dramas, plays, etc. Moreover, mass Behaviour modification
and education regarding road safety should be imparted from the school level.
3. The marking of dividers and speed breakers must be done. Immediate steps to remove all
the aged and damaged vehicles off from the roads will definitely be a welcoming step.

13
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