RIDERSHIP FORECAST

1. What is ridership forecasting?

Ridership forecasting is the process of estimating the number of vehicles or people that will
use a specific transportation facility in the future. For instance, a forecast may estimate the
number of vehicles on a planned road or bridge, the ridership on a railway line, the number of
passengers visiting an airport, or the number of ships calling on a seaport. Traffic forecasting
begins with the collection of data on current traffic. This traffic data is combined with other
known data, such as population, employment, trip rates, travel costs, etc., to develop a
traffic demand model for the current situation. Feeding it with predicted data for population,
employment, etc. results in estimates of future traffic, typically estimated for each segment of
the transportation infrastructure in question, e.g., for each roadway segment or railway
station.
2.

Why ridership forecasting is needed?

New routes
Route changes affecting 25% or more of a route
New mode/new type of service
The next 5 or 10 years
For the next fiscal year
Route changes affecting less than 25% of a route
Minor adjustments to route segments
Scheduling changes
Other

3.

What are the methods available for ridership forecast?

Single versus multiple methods of ridership forecasting
Forecasting methods: short-range versus long-range forecasts
Forecasting methods: multimodal agencies
Ridership forecasts: linked versus unlinked trips

4.

What are popular methods for ridership forecasting?

Professional judgment
Rules of thumb/similar routes
Service elasticities
Four-step travel demand model
Econometric model
Regression analysis
Other

5. What is the four step travel demand modeling process? List and explain in brief?
Within the rational planning framework, transportation forecasts have traditionally followed
the sequential four-step model or urban transportation planning (UTP) procedure.
The four steps of the classical urban transportation planning system model are:

Trip generation determines the frequency of origins or destinations of trips in each

zone by trip purpose, as a function of land uses and household demographics, and other
socio-economic factors.

Trip distribution matches origins with destinations, often using a gravity

model function, equivalent to an entropy maximizing model. Older models include the
fratar model.

Mode choice computes the proportion of trips between each origin and destination
that use a particular transportation mode. (This modal model may be of the logit form,
developed by Nobel Prize winner Daniel McFadden.)

Route assignment allocates trips between an origin and destination by a particular

mode to a route. Often (for highway route assignment) Wardrop's principle of user
equilibrium is applied (equivalent to a Nash equilibrium), wherein each driver (or group)
chooses the shortest (travel time) path, subject to every other driver doing the same. The
difficulty is that travel times are a function of demand, while demand is a function of
travel time, the so-called bi-level problem. Another approach is to use the Stackelberg
competition model, where users ("followers") respond to the actions of a "leader", in this
case for example a traffic manager. This leader anticipates on the response of the
followers.
6. List city characteristics are discussed in the DPR? Why they are listed there?
Population of Nagpur
Economy of Nagpur
Cargo hub and airport at Nagpur (mihan)
Traffic volume count (TVC) and passenger occupancy surveys (OCS)
Mode share
Terminal survey results
Terminal passenger interview
Work place survey
Interview of workers
Trip forecasting using traffic models
Trip ends estimation
Trip distribution

Modal split
Simultaneous modal split and distribution
Trip assignment
Daily ridership estimation
Nagpur metro alignment plan
Summary output
Daily ridership
More about mihan
Effect of mihan on proposed metro ridership
Further developments
Estimation of ridership for final alignments
Day boarding and PHPDT

These characteristics have been listed here for the purpose of studying the entire geography,
statistics, economics, social etc. characteristics related to Nagpur which shall in turn help for
better forecasting regarding the Nagpur metro rail project.
7. What methods are used for travel demand forecasting in Nagpur DPR?
Traffic Study and Ridership estimation are the first tasks in DPR which imply finalizing a
feasible alignment plan of the proposed metro network and then locating normal and
interchange metro stations (if any). After that, Ridership Estimation is done. Estimating daily
and peak hour boarding and alighting from each station, daily link load and PHPDT link
loads [all together is called Ridership Estimation] are estimated. These estimates are
primary inputs to other important estimates such as station design, train operation plan,
estimates of revenue collection, benefits of metro, rolling stock and many other estimates
including EIRR and FIRR.
8. List the surveys conducted by Nagpur DPR
Traffic Surveys
Topographical Surveys
Geotechnical Investigations and Environment Impact Assessment Survey
Traffic volume count (TVC) and passenger occupancy surveys (OCS)
Work place survey
Traffic volume count (TVC) and passenger occupancy surveys (PCS)
Bus and rail mode passenger terminal survey
9. What is the output of the process of Nagpur DPR and how it is used in the planning
for Nagpur Metro?
It has been established that a Light Capacity Metro System (MRTS) with carrying capacity of
about 25,000 PHPDT would be adequate to meet not only the present traffic demand but
also cater to the demand for the next 30 years.
After examining the various options for execution of Nagpur Metro Rail Project, it is
recommended that the project be implemented through government funding, Implementing
through an SPV namely Nagpur Metro Rail Corporation (NMRC) registered under the
Companies Act, 1956. This SPV should be a PS of GoM and GoI. After the approval of State
Government, DPR to be sent to the Secretary, Ministry of Urban Development, Government
of India, advising GOI of the State Governments intention to take up the Project on
government funding basis and requesting for the latters In Principle clearance to go ahead
with the Project.

10. Will alignment be determined by forecast?

Yes.
11. What changes would you suggest to Forecasting Process in the Nagpur DPR?
No Changes.