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R
EE E K L Y
P
O Blow by Blow
On
R
Bullions,
T
Base metals,
21 DEC 24 DEC 2015

Energy

MAJOR EVENTS
Gold is being whipsawed as investors try to gauge the pace of future U.S. interestrate increases. After initially moving little after the Federal Reserve decided on
Wednesday to raise rates for the first time in almost a decade, the metal ended
Thursday down 2 per cent, the most since July 20. Bullion rose 0.5 per cent Friday as
a gauge of the dollar weakened. The market has been a bit schizophrenic in
reaction to the Feds decision to end an unprecedented era of ultra-easy monetary
policy. Gold is trading in line with aggregates such as the dollar, as battered
investors try to understand the implications of the new era of the Fed rates for
gold.Gold remains heavily bearish and bears have been gifted an opportunity to
install another round of selling momentum throughout metals before the end of the
year. With any hopes of a recovery in prices discounted, further dollar appreciation
should send this zero yielding metal back towards $1,046 [an ounce] and potentially
lower, Higher rates strengthen the attractiveness of the dollar, boosting the return
of deposits in that currency, while making dollar-based assets more expensive to
investors using other monetary units. An increase in rates also weakens the appeal of
assets like gold which dont bear interest.
Congress passed a $1.1 trillion spending measure that averts a U.S. government
shutdown and ends a 40-year-old ban on crude oil exports, a plan that ensures fiscal
peace in Congress through most of 2016. The Senate passed the bill 65-33 on Friday,
shortly after a 316-113 House vote. The legislation, which will finance the government
through September 2016, went to President Barack Obama, who signed it. US West
Texas Crude gained 1.1% to $36.38 a barrel, Brent rose 0.7% to $37.32 a barrel.US oil
producers will now be able to sell crude to the already saturated international
market. The bulk of US oil comes from shale producers. Production and exploration
companies argued the ban - imposed during the Arab oil embargo in the mid-1970s was outdated and unnecessary. Opponents claimed that lifting the ban would lead to
the loss of oil refining jobs and would be bad for the environment. As a trade-off for
lifting the ban, the spending bill includes tax breaks for solar and wind power and a
pledge by Republicans not to block a $500m payment to the UN Green Climate Fund.
The global glut meant that lifting the ban was not expected to lead to significant US
exports for months or even years, but could give producers extra flexibility.
Its been a tough year for copper bulls. One of the industrial metals most associated
with the boom years in China has been hit hard by the countrys lurch away from its
previous fixed-asset investment growth model. Talk of the new normal and of a
Chinese slowdown doesnt capture the severity of the demand shock experienced
by all the metals, copper included. On the London Metal Exchange, the price of threemonth copper peaked at $6,481 (U.S.) a ton in early May, since when its ground
steadily lower to a current $4,550. The best that can be said is that copper hasnt
fared as badly as other metals such as nickel, which is back at the bombed-out levels
seen at the worst of the global financial crisis. Copper is some way off its 2008 trough
below $3,000, although that may only encourage more bear attacks, particularly in
China, where shorting metals has become the hot trade for expressing a negative
view on the countrys economic prospects. The demand slowdown in China has
been exacerbated by a supply surge. Again this is not unique to copper. Producers of
just about every metallic commodity were still chasing Chinas old normal of rapid
infrastructure-fueled growth even as that model was unraveling But if there is a
glimmer of hope for copper bulls next year, it lies in coppers infinitely unpredictable
supply dynamics.

Gold prices on
roller-coaster in
wake of interestrate boost.

Congress Passes
U.S. Spending Bill
to End Oil Export
Ban.

An unexpected
development in
the copper market
is giving bulls
some hope.

ECONOMIC CALENDER
DESCRIPTION

FORECAST

PREVIOUS

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

2.1%

7:00pm

Final GDP Price Index q/q

1.3%

1.3%

7:30pm

HPI m/m

0.4%

0.8%

8:30pm

Existing Home Sales

5.32M

5.36M

Richmond Manufacturing Index

-1

-3

Dec 23 7:00pm

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.1%

0.5%

7:00pm

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

0.0%

7:00pm

Durable Goods Orders m/m

-0.6%

3.0%

7:00pm

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

0.1%

7:00pm

Personal Income m/m

0.2%

0.4%

8:30pm

New Home Sales

507K

495K

8:30pm

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

92.1

91.8

8:30pm

Revised UoM Inflation Expectations

2.6%

9:00pm

Crude Oil Inventories

4.8M

Dec 24 7:00pm

Unemployment Claims

9:00pm

Natural Gas Storage

Dec 25 All Day

Bank Holiday

DATE & TIME

Dec 22 7:00pm

8:30pm

270K

271K

GOLD
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX
GOLD
showed
sideways
movement till US interest rate hike
after that it drag towards the support
level of 24750. Now, if it is able to
sustain below 24740 then next major
support level is seen around 24450. On
higher side if it maintains above 25500
then again it correct up to resistance
level of 26000.

PIVOT TABLE
STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX GOLD is to sell
below 24740 for the targets of 2445024000, with stop loss of 25400.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

24740

24450

24100

25360

25750

26060

SILVER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX SILVER last week showed bearish
movement and took its important
weekly support of 33000 and correct
up to 23.6% retracement level. Now,
on higher side if it maintain above
34500 then next resistance level is
seen in the range of 35500-36000. On
lower side if it sustain below 33000
then only bearish movement will drag
it towards the new supports.

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX SILVER at this
point of time is to buy above 34600 for
the targets of 35500-36000, with stop
loss of 32900.

PIVOT TABLE
S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

33000

32500

32000

34200

35000

35500

CRUDEOIL
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Crude oil showed highly bearish
movement and broke its important
support level of 2500, also closed
below it and broke falling wedge
pattern on daily chart. Now, if it
sustain below 2500 then next
important support level is seen in the
range of 2300-2200. On the other hand
maintaing above 2550, again pull it
towards the resistance level of 2700.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX CRUDEOIL is to
sell below 2300 for the targets of 22002100, with stop loss of 2550.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

2300

2150

2000

2540

2700

2905

COPPER
TECHNICAL VIEW
MCX Copper last week showed bearish
movement and broke the upward
channel pattern on lower side and
found support around 302.50. Now, if
it sustain below 302 then the next
important support is seen around 294.
On higher side if it maintain above 315
then 325 will act as major resistance
level above which trendline breakout
will expected.

PIVOT TABLE

STRATEGY
Better strategy in MCX COPPER is to sell
below 310, with stop loss of 325 for the
target of 300.

S1

S2

S3

R1

R2

R3

302.75

293.50

285

316.40

325.75

335.50

DISCLAIMER

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