Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Indian markets have recently thrown open a new avenue for retail investors and traders to
participate commodity derivatives. For those who want to diversify their portfolios beyond
shares, commodities bonds and real estate are the best options.
The retail investors could have done very little to actually invest in commodities such as crude
oil in the futures market.
However, with the setting up of three multi-commodity exchanges in the country, retail investors
can now trade in commodity futures without having physical stocks!
Commodities actually offer immense potential to become a separate asset class for market survey
investors, arbitrageurs and speculators. Retail investors, who claim to understand the equity
markets, may find commodities an unfathomable market.
understand as far as fundamentals of demand and supply are concerned. Retail investors should
understand the risks and advantages of trading in commodities futures before taking a leap.
Historically, pricing in commodities futures has been less volatile compared with equity and
bonds, thus providing an efficient portfolio diversification option
Like any other market, the one for commodity futures plays a valuable role in information
pooling and risk sharing. The market mediates between buyers and sellers of commodities, and
facilitates decisions related to storage and consumption of commodities. In the process, they
make the underlying market more liquid.
COMMODITY TRADING:
COMMODITY MARKET TRADING MCHANISM:
Every market transaction consists of three components trading, clearing and settlement.
TRADING:
The trading system on the Commodities exchange provides a fully automated screen-based
trading for futures on commodities on a nationwide basis as well as an online monitoring and
surveillance mechanism. It supports an order driven market and provides complete transparency
of trading operations. After hours trading has also been proposed for implementation at a later
stage.
The COMEX system supports an order driven market, where orders match automatically. Order
matching is essentially on the basis of commodity, its price, time and quantity. All quantity fields
are in units and price in rupees. The exchange specifies the unit of trading and the delivery unit
for futures contracts on various commodities. The exchange notifies the regular lot size and tick
size for each of the contracts traded from time to time. When any order enters the trading
system, it is an active order. It tries to find a match on the other side of the book. If it finds a
match, a trade is generated. If it does not find a match, the order becomes passive and gets
queued in the respective outstanding order book in the system, Time stamping is done for each
trade and provides the possibility for a complete audit trail if required.
COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING CYCLE:
COMEX trades commodity futures contracts having one-month, two-month and three-month
expiry cycles. All contracts expire on the 20th of the expiry month. Thus a January expiration
contract would expire on the 20th of January and a February expiry contract would cease trading
on the 20th February. If the 20th of the expiry month is a trading holiday, the contracts shall
expire on the previous trading day. New contracts will be introduced on the trading day
following the expiry of the near month contract. Following Figure shows the contract cycle for
futures contracts on COMEX.
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
Time
Jan 20 contract
Feb 20 contract
March 20 contract
April 20 contract
May 20 contract
June 20 contract
Figure no: 1
following categories:
Time conditions
Price conditions
Other conditions
Several combinations of the above are possible thereby providing enormous flexibility to users.
The order types and conditions are summarized below. Of these, the order types available on the
COMEX system are regular lot order, stop loss order, immediate or cancel order, good till day
order, good till cancelled order, good till order and spread order.
TIME CONDITIONS:
1. Good till day order:
A day order, as the name suggests is an order which is valid for the day on which it is entered. If
the order is not executed during the day, the system cancels the order automatically at the end of
the day Example: A trader wants to go long on March 1, 2004 in refined palm oil on the
commodity exchange. A day order is placed at Rs.340/- 10 kg. If the market does not reach this
price the order does not get filled even if the market touches Rs.341 and closes. In other words
day order is for a specific price and if the order does not get filled that day, one has to place the
order gain the next day.
PRICE CONDITION:
1. Limit Order:
An order to buy or sell a stated amount of a commodity at a specified price, or at a better price, if
obtainable at the time of execution. The disadvantage is that the order may not get filled at all if
the price of that day does not reach specified price.
2. Stop-loss:
A stop-loss order is an order, placed with the broker, to buy or sell a particular futures contract at
the market price if and when the price reaches a specified level. Futures traders often use stop
orders in an effort to limit the amount they might lose if the futures price moves against their
position Stop orders are not executed until the price reaches the specified point. When
The price reaches that point the stop order becomes a market order. Most of the time, stop orders
are used to exit a trade. But, stop orders can be executed for buying / selling positions too. A
buy stop order is initiated when one wants to buy a contract or go long and a sell stop order when
one wants to sell or go short. The order gets filled at the suggested stop order price or at a better
price. Example: A trader has purchased crude oil futures at Rs.750 per barrel. He wishes to limit
his loss to Rs.50 a barrel. A stop order would then be placed to sell an offsetting contract if the
price falls to Rs.700 per barrel. When the market touches this price, stop order gets executed and
the trader would exit the market. For the stop-loss sell order, the trigger price has to be greater
than the limit price.
To compare the volatility of the moment of the crude oil as commodity with that of index.
The study is conducted in short period, due to which the study may not be detailed all
aspect.
The data collected is completely restricted to July and Aug; hence this analysis cannot
be taken universal.
CHAPTER 2
LITERATURE REVIEW
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
Meaning and Objectives of commodity futures
A commodity futures contract is a contractual agreement between two parties to buy or
sell a specified quantity and quality of commodity at a certain time in future at a certain price
agreed at the time of entering into the contract on the commodity futures exchange.
Objectives and benefits of commodity futures are as follows
By Definition
Futures contract is an agreement between two parties to buy or sell a specified quantity
and quality of asset at a certain time in future at a certain price agreed at the time of entering into
the contract on the futures exchange.
Forward contract is an agreement entered between two parties to buy or sell an asset at a
future date for an agreed price. Forward contract is not traded on an exchange.
Trading place: Futures contract is entered on the centralized trading platform of the
exchange. Forward contract is OTC in nature.
Size of the contract: Futures contract is standardized in terms of quantity and quality as
specified by the exchange. Size of the forward contract is customized as per the terms of
agreement between the buyer and seller.
Valuation of open position and margin requirement: In case of futures contract, valuation
of open position is calculated as per the official closing price on a daily basis and Markto-Market margin requirement exists. In case of forward contract, valuation of open
position is not calculated on a daily basis and there is no provision of Mark-to-Market
margin requirement.
Counter party risk: In futures contract the Clearing House becomes a counter party to
each transaction, which is called Novation, making counter party risk nil. In forward
contract, counter party risk is high due to decentralized nature of the transaction.
Settlement: Futures contract can be settled in cash or physical delivery, depending on the
commodity futures contract specification. Forward contract is generally settled by
physical delivery.
and quality as per contract specifications, at designated delivery centres of the Exchange.
Delivery in case of forward contract is carried out at delivery centre specified in
customized bilateral agreement.
National level
commodity derivatives exchanges seem to be the new phenomenon. The Forward Markets
Commission accorded in principle approval for the following national level multi commodity
exchanges. The increasing volumes on these exchanges suggest that commodity markets in India
seem to be a promising game.
Commodity Exchanges Registered in India
Commodity Exchange
Bhatinda Om & Oil Exchange Ltd.,
Products Traded
Gur
Sunflower Oil
Agro
commodities Gur
Beopar
Muzaffarnagr
India Pepper
Chamber
&
Spice
Association, Kochi
Rajadhani Oils and
Ltd., Gur
Trade Pepper
Oil
Exchange Ltd.,Delhi
Rapeseed / Mustard Seed / Oil / Cake
Soyabean / Meal / Oil / Crude Palm Oil
National Board of Trade, Indore
The Chamber of Commerce, Hapur
Gur, Rapeseed / Mustard seed
The East India Cotton Association, Cotton
Mumbai
The central
India
Commercial Gur
Table no:1
INSIGHTS
OF
MARKET
&
TRADING
SPECIFICATIONS
FOR
COMMODITIES
CRUDE OIL:
A mineral oil consisting of a mixture of hydrocarbons of natural origin, yellow to black in color/
of variable specific gravity and viscosity; often referred to simply as crude.
Class B: Non-Sticky Oils These oils have a waxy or oily feel. Class B oils are less toxic and
adhere more firmly to surfaces than Class A oils/although they can be removed from surfaces by
vigorous flushing. As temperatures rise/their tendency to penetrate porous substrates increases
and they can be persistent. Evaporation of volatilize may lead to a Class C or D residue.
Medium to heavy paraffin-based oils fall into this class.
Class D: No fluid Oils Class D oils are relatively non-toxic/do not penetrate porous substrates
and are usually black or dark brown in color. When heated, Class D oils may melt and coat
surfaces making cleanup very difficult. Residual oils, heavy crude oils/some high paraffin
oils/and some weathered oils fall into this class.
These classification are dynamic for spilled oils, weather conditions and water temperature
greatly influence the behaviour of oil and refined petroleum products in the environment. For
example, as volatiles evaporate from as Class B oil, it may become Class C oil. If a significant
temperature drop occurs (e.g., at night), a Class C oil may solidify and resemble a Class D oil.
Upon warming the Class D oil may revert back to a Class C oil.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is of very high quality. Its API gravity is 39.6
degrees (making it a light crude oil). WTI is generally priced at about a $2-4 per-barrel
premium to OPEC Basket price and about #1-2 per barrel premium to Brent, although on
a daily basis the pricing relationships between these can very greatly.
India is very much reliant on oil from the Middle East (High Sulphur). The OPEC has
identified China & India as their main buyers of oil in Asia for several years to come.
Natural gas production has also increased substantially in recent years, with the country
producing over 22,000 million cubic metres. Natural gas is rapidly becoming an important
source of energy and feedstock for major industries. By the end of the Eighth Five-Year Plan,
production was likely to reach 30 billion cubic metres.
Taxation When oil taxes are raised, end consumers often mistakenly blame, the oil
producers, but it is really their own governments that are responsible.
Accidents
Bad weather
Increasing demand
Labour disputes.
If traders in the oil market believe there will be a Jffirtage of oil supplies, they may raise
prices before a shortage occur
Imbalance between supply and demand. If oil production rises faster than demand.
If traders in the oil market believe there will be a shortage of oil supplies, they may raise
prices before a shortage occurs.
Is the world running out of oil? Oil is a limited resource, so it may eventually run out,
although not for many years to come, OPECs oil reserves are sufficient to last another 80
years at the current rate of production, while non-OPEC oil producers reserves might last
less than 20 years. The worldwide demand for oil is rising and OPEC is expected to be an
increasingly important source of that oil.
If we manage our resources well, use the oil efficiently and develop new fields, then our oil
reserves should last for many more generations to come.
Gasoline, petrol liquefied, petroleum gas (LPG), naphtha, kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil, lubricants,
asphalt(used in paving roads), naphtha, gas oil, ethane, ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene,
ammonia, methanol, plastics, synthetic fibers, synthetic rubbers, detergents, chemical fertilizers.
1 US barrel = 42 US gallons
CHAPTER 3
COMPANY PROFILE
COMPANY PROFILE
Optimus is one of the leading and fast growing commodity brokers and occupied its place in the
good books of investors. At Optimus we believe in Research... Reliability.... Resposibility. We
are led by experienced professionals with deep domain knowledge on Commodity
derivatives.Being a member of MCX, we facilitate online trading on various commodities like
Bullion, Energies, Non ferrous metals, Pulses, grains, Spices, Eddible oils and others.We started
our journey in 2003 at Vijayawada and spread our wings to many places by establishing nearly
40 franchises in A.P.
We are very strong in designing risk management strategies by taking advantages of spreading,
hedging and Arbitraging. Its been 3 years since futures trading re-emerged in India. A daily
average turnover of nearly 20,000 crores is recorded in india at a growth rate of 600%. This
attracts every investor and they need a right broker to serve their purpose. We are here to bridge
the gap and make our clients know perfect before they start trading. We consider every client of
ours as an individual while many brokerage firms consider as numbers.
Our vision is to churn the advantages of commodity futures trading and justify the investments of
all our clients.
At Optimus, we believe in service and support. Analysis is said to be the major support expected
by every trader and investor when it comes to Commodity trading. Analysis are two types,
Technical and Fundamental. We have a separate team of Analysts to support our valuable Clients.
A team of fundamental Analyst at our office observe various developments in all domestic and
international commodities. They watch the ratio of supply, demand. Weather, Government
policies etc., and update the same to our clients. The other set of Analysts observe the markets by
reading graphical representations of various commodities and design the trading strategies to
share with our clients through out the day. To assist our clients in terms of technical analysis we
use various state of the art soft wares for better productivity. In other words, Every trade
executed at Optimus does have a logic behind it( either technical or fundamental).
Futures contract
Bilateral agreement
Standardized agreement
Flexible covenant
Replaces spot transactions on many Buyer and seller only refer to the clearinghouse
occasions
Form of contracting totally
prices'
Price transparency
transfer of goods
Margins
In futures trading, the entire value of a contract need not be paid rather, a margin that is typically
between 2 percent and 10 percent of the total value of the contract need to be paid while entering
into the contract.
Initial margin
When a futures trader enters into a futures position , he or she is required to post initial margin of
an amount specified by the exchange or clearing organization.
Thereafter, the margin becomes "marked-to market" and the margin account will be adjusted
automatically according to the changes in futures price.
Maintenance margin: The minimum level at which the equity in a futures account must be
maintained. If the equity in an account falls below this level, a margin call be issued, and funds
must be added to bring the account back to the initial margin level. The maintenance margin
level generally is normally 75 percent of the initial margin requirement. If the amount of money
in the margin account falls below the specified maintenance margin, the futures trader will be
required to post additional variation margin to bring the account up the initial margin level and if
the futures position is profitable, the profits will be added to the margin account.
For example, in June if a farmer expects on output of 100 tones of the soyabean in October. Soya
bean prices in October are expected to rule relatively lower as it is harvesting season for soya
bean. In order to hedge against the price fall, the farmer/producer sells 100 contracts of one tone
each at Rs 1347 on June 22, 2005. On a fall of price to Rs 1216 per tone in October he makes
profit of Rs 131 per tone.
Speculation: Contrary to the hedging, speculation involves risk but no offsetting of cash market
position. Speculators on the other hand, wish to take risk that hedgers want to avoid with a
motive to make profits and provide the necessary liquidity through bids and offers that result into
a continuous flow of transactions. Commodities are becoming increasingly attractive to investor
and hedge fund managers as an alternative asset class that may allow reduction in overall risk of
financial portfolio and enhance returns.
For example if an investor wants to diversify his investment portfolios, he can chose
commodities as a bright option. Unlike in spot markets, he has to invest only a margin amount
instead of the total amount and can gain profits to the total extent.
Arbitrage: A third category of market participants is the arbitragers. Arbitrage is a risk-less
profit realized by simultaneous trading in two or more markets. However, arbitrage the prices get
adjusted soon with buying and selling.
assets
with
identical
cash
flows
must
trade
at
different
prices.
An asset with a known price in the future, must trade today at a different price than its future
priced discounted at the risk-free interest rate.
For example, spot price of gold in Mumbai is Rs 8000 per 10 gm and at the same time the futures
contract on MCX is traded at Rs 8200 per gm then the trader buys a kg of gold in cash market
and simultaneously takes a short position in the futures market. On the expiry of the contract he
opts to deliver the physical gold and gains at the rate of Rs 200 per 10 gm.
Basis and basis risk
Sp
>
Fp
then
basis
is
said
to
be
OVER
future
and
called
premium
CHAPTER 4
DATA ANALYSIS AND
INTERPRETATION
DATA ANALYSIS
The tools which are used for analyzing the crude oil prices are as follows:
1. Relative Strength Index - RSI
A technical momentum indicator that compares the magnitude of recent gains to recent losses in
an attempt to determine overbought and oversold conditions of an asset. It is calculated using the
following formula:
100
RSI = 100 - ______
1 + RS
RS = Average of x days' up closes / Average of x days' down closes
The RSI ranges from 0 to 100. An asset is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the
70 level, meaning that it may be getting overvalued and is a good candidate for a pullback.
Likewise, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the asset may be getting oversold and
therefore likely to become undervalued.
As we can see that in between September 2011 and January 2012 the RSI ranges between
50 to 80 which indicate that it is in overbought position and the price has fallen from
$91to $92. Once the RSI approaches to 80 levels, meaning that it may be overvalued and
getting ready for a pull back.
In the month of January 2012 RSI approaches 50, it is an indication that crude oil is
oversold and therefore likely to becomes undervalued.
Similarly between January 2013 and March 2013 the RSI ranges between 40 to 60 which
happened as an upward momentum in the price which rose from $92 to $95.
2. MACD:
Moving Average Convergence Divergence - MACD.
A trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving
averages of prices. The MACD is calculated by subtracting the 26-day exponential moving
average (EMA) from the 12-day EMA. A nine-day EMA of the MACD, called the "signal line",
is then plotted on top of the MACD, functioning as a trigger for buy and sell signals.
There are three common methods used to interpret the MACD:
1. Crossovers
2. Divergence
3. Dramatic rise
Traders recognize three meaningful signals generated by the MACD indicator.
There id divergence between the MACD line and the price of the stock or between the
histogram and the price of the stock.
MACD Study:
As we can see that MACD falls below the signal line (below 0) in the month of feb 2012,
it showed a bearish signal, which indicated that it may break from $91 in feb 2013 around
to $94 in March 2013 which was a good sell point.
Similarly, mid of August 2012 , till September 2012 A MACD rises above the signal
line, (above 50) the indicator gives a bullish signal, by which the price of crude oil
futures will experience an upward momentum which happened as the price rose from
$91.86 to around $94.33.
Also, we can see from the candle stick chart that the MACD signal line is rising which
indicated a bullish trend. MACD reading is around 60 with a price touching above
$94.86.
As indicated from the above chart between jan 2013 and feb 2013, the price of crude oil
has seen some good volatility and the price which was trading between $91 and $91.8 has
finally touched the high of $92 after breaking the strong support at $91.8.
Divergences between Bollinger bands and other indicators show potential action points. As a
general guideline, look for buying opportunities when prices are in the lower band, and selling
opportunities when the price activity is in the upper band.
Figure no:2
Bollinger band study:
From the above chart we can see that the Bollinger band indicated that from April 2012 to
April 2013 the price range was between $91and $95 which showed that market was
moving in the range bound except in January 2013 it broken the strong resistance of $90.
Also we can see that the Bollinger band in 2012 was $91.95 which experienced an
upward momentum till 2013 to around $95.96 and a good opportunity for the investors to
sell as the price brand is high.
Daily Quotes
Period
5-Day
20-Day
50-Day
100-Day
200-Day
Year to Date
Moving Average
90.98
93.68
94.25
90.82
90.36
94.52
Price Change
+1.27
-3.88
+3.34
+0.09
+0.29
+0.13
Period
Raw Stochastic
Stochastic %K
Stochastic %D
9-Day
14-Day
20-Day
50-Day
69.32%
27.98%
24.76%
23.40%
42.59%
18.10%
16.15%
24.84%
27.31%
11.90%
10.86%
23.19%
100-Day
55.63%
50.91%
47.87%
Period
9-Day
14-Day
20-Day
50-Day
100-Day
Relative Strength
43.41%
42.90%
44.95%
49.42%
49.77%
Percent R
30.68%
72.02%
75.24%
76.60%
44.37%
Table no:2
Figure no:3
Interpretaion: As from the above figure we can observe that the price of crude oil increases i.e
from 91.74 to 94.08
Interpretaion : As by oberserving the above figure we can understand that the prices of crude
oil is fluctuation with in a day. i.e from 91.83 to 105.04
Figure no:5
Last
Open
91.81
91.83
-0.07%
91.
Moving Average
94.18
91.21
92.65
90.57
85.89
Price Change
-3.93
-4.47
-15.45
+10.71
-18.26
Period
Raw Stochastic
Stochastic %K
Stochastic %D
9-Week
14-Week
20-Week
50-Week
100-Week
23.40%
51.62%
55.63%
48.11%
42.55%
50.83%
51.37%
55.41%
47.21%
42.47%
63.86%
63.13%
65.99%
51.48%
46.21%
Period
9-Week
14-Week
20-Week
50-Week
100-Week
Relative Strength
47.94%
49.36%
49.44%
50.06%
50.80%
Percent R
76.60%
48.38%
44.37%
51.89%
57.45%
Table no:3
Average True
Range
2.35
2.55
2.77
3.42
3.84
Figure no:6
Analysis
Support: 91.50, 91.15, 90.85, 90.00, and 89.30
Resistance: 92.00, 93.00, 93.45, 94.00, And 94.40
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above, we prefer to long oil around
91.50 targeting 92.00 and 93.00. Stop loss below 90.80
Crude oil moved higher on Friday, to retest 92.0 resistance areas, the commodity maintained the
bullish momentum after completing the double bottom shown on the four-hour chart above. The
bullish bias is likely this week, and a break above 91.95-92.00 would give it further
confirmation.
Crude Oil WTI (CLY00)
Daily Quotes
Weekly Quotes
Monthly Quotes
Date
Open
High
Low
Last
Change
% Change
Volume
03/08/13
0.00
91.95
91.95
91.95
+0.39
+0.43%
03/07/13
0.00
91.56
91.56
91.56
+1.13
+1.25%
03/06/13
0.00
90.43
90.43
90.43
-0.39
-0.43%
03/05/13
0.00
90.82
90.82
90.82
+0.70
+0.78%
03/04/13
0.00
90.12
90.12
90.12
-0.56
-0.62%
Moving Average
90.98
93.68
94.25
90.82
90.36
94.52
Price Change
+1.27
-3.88
+3.34
+0.09
+0.29
+0.13
Period
Raw Stochastic
Stochastic %K
Stochastic %D
9-Day
14-Day
20-Day
50-Day
69.32%
27.98%
24.76%
23.40%
42.59%
18.10%
16.15%
24.84%
27.31%
11.90%
10.86%
23.19%
100-Day
55.63%
50.91%
47.87%
Period
9-Day
14-Day
Relative Strength
43.41%
42.90%
Percent R
30.68%
72.02%
Average True
Range
0.70
0.70
0.71
0.80
0.93
20-Day
50-Day
100-Day
44.95%
49.42%
49.77%
75.24%
76.60%
44.37%
15.42%
14.63%
19.35%
-2.37
-2.94
+0.49
weekly information as of Mar 08, 2013, based on weekly nearest futures data.
Moving Average
94.18
91.21
92.65
90.57
85.89
Price Change
-3.93
-4.47
-15.45
+10.71
-18.26
Period
Raw Stochastic
Stochastic %K
Stochastic %D
9-Week
14-Week
20-Week
50-Week
100-Week
23.40%
51.62%
55.63%
48.11%
42.55%
50.83%
51.37%
55.41%
47.21%
42.47%
63.86%
63.13%
65.99%
51.48%
46.21%
Period
9-Week
14-Week
20-Week
50-Week
100-Week
Relative Strength
47.94%
49.36%
49.44%
50.06%
50.80%
Percent R
76.60%
48.38%
44.37%
51.89%
57.45%
Range
2.35
2.55
2.77
3.42
3.84
Average True
Period
6-Month
2-Year
5-Year
10-Year
20-Year
Moving Average
91.41
94.93
86.46
72.02
46.80
Price Change
-0.24
-14.77
-9.64
+60.92
+71.52
Period
Raw Stochastic
Stochastic %K
9-Month
14-Month
20-Month
50-Month
100-Month
53.77%
44.45%
47.74%
72.51%
53.23%
63.57%
50.31%
53.26%
75.12%
54.87%
Period
9-Month
14-Month
20-Month
50-Month
100-Month
Relative Strength
49.05%
50.17%
51.04%
52.80%
53.48%
Percent R
46.23%
55.55%
52.26%
27.49%
46.77%
Average True
59.16%
49.56%
50.64%
75.02%
54.54%
Range
7.55
8.41
8.98
9.04
7.53
Figure no:7
Commodity
Contract/Expir
Symbol
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
CRUDEOIL
y Month
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
17-Dec-11
Close(Rs
Open(Rs)
3708
3635
0
3619
3624
3613
3620
3736
3735
3710
3680
3750
3744
3730
0
3737
3763
3780
3763
3839
3849
3840
3829
3764
3743
3765
3780
3795
3890
3924
3922
3904
3864
3891
3891
3820
3781
3739
3698
High(Rs)
3708
3635
0
3619
3667
3676
3736
3748
3735
3729
3761
3794
3772
3760
0
3804
3817
3788
3828
3847
3849
3840
3829
3764
3790
3775
3780
3876
3924
3942
3930
3925
3864
3894
3891
3825
3789
3739
3701
Low(Rs)
3625
3587
0
3611
3616
3601
3620
3720
3735
3682
3675
3750
3705
3723
0
3737
3761
3777
3763
3826
3849
3817
3745
3720
3725
3732
3780
3795
3890
3915
3900
3850
3864
3871
3826
3810
3722
3687
3692
)
3639
3607
3607
3615
3635
3643
3716
3730
3735
3705
3753
3781
3736
3737
3737
3782
3782
3782
3790
3838
3849
3829
3770
3730
3769
3760
3780
3857
3917
3928
3913
3882
3864
3882
3850
3818
3734
3714
3696
PCP(Rs)
3714
3639
3607
3607
3615
3635
3643
3716
3730
3735
3705
3753
3781
3736
3737
3737
3782
3782
3782
3790
3838
3849
3829
3770
3730
3769
3760
3780
3857
3917
3928
3913
3882
3864
3882
3850
3818
3734
3714
CLOSING DATE
RATE
CHANGE OF %
1 week
2rd July
3639
2 week
10th July
3730
2.50%
3 week
17th July
3737
0.18%
4 week
24th July
3838
2..40%
5 week
30st July
3769
-1.79%
6 week
6th Aug
3913
+3.82%
7 week
14th Aug
3714
-5.00%
Figure no:8
INTERPRETATION: above data indicating weekly performance of crude oil from 4 th July 2011
to 14th August 2011. When compare to other commodity moments 2 nd and 3rd week prices
decreased and crude oil price increased, it indicates sometimes gold and silver have inverse
relation, and when you notice about last week performance of crude oil we can see fall in crude
oil.When gold prices increases, crude price decreases, this has proved in few situations, but there
is no major reason for this and its psychological thought and its proving few times, so investors
believe there is inverse relation in that.
CHAPTER 5
FINDINGS, SUGGESTIONS AND
CONCLUSION
FINDINGS
The investment in this for short period of time and most of the trading is intra-day in
nature i.e., Buy and Sell on same day to make profits. Here daily volumes and trends are
considered.
There is no scope for better and huge profits especially in commodities market for
investing when compared to investing in Equity market.
There is no physical delivery of most of the trades in case of commodities unlike other
areas of investments, supporting the large volume based market.
Investments in commodities market is less risky, the prices of commodities are more
stable than that of other instruments of capital market.
Though both Futures and Options contracts are available in world commodity market, but
in India Options have not been permitted by government.
The prices of crude oil have been dominated is U.S dollars with the fluctuation in the
value of the U.S dollars and the prominence that never currencies such as the euro are
gaining OPEC is considering switching crude oil from U.S dollars quotation system to
either the euro or to a basket of multiple currencies
China has become the worlds second largest energy consuming country after united state
of America flourishing economic like india, china , are becoming huge oil consumers.
Crude oil is safer investment than gold because of risk as to the amount of fake gold bars
circulation.
SUGGESTIONS
1.
As the fund managers take decisions with mutual fund investment, it would be another
option for him to invest through mutual funds in commodity market.
2. If Government takes this commodity market into awareness for the farmers, it would be better
for them to take their own decisions for commodity which they want to trade.
3. As there is an option for the trader to take the physical delivery, it would be better if the
Government cuts the tax rate for the physical delivery of goods.
4. Commodity market presently deals with FUTURES contract and most probably OPTIONS are
provided, it would be convenient to the investors.
5. Investing in oil is just like investing in the stock or commodities market in oil is as risky as any
other investment in real state,gold,currencies or commodities
6. Keep an eye on the worlds production is a valuable tool when dealing in oil futures
7. Watch for oil production cuts or increase from OPEC and always keep an eye on live movement
of crude prices chart for live ups and downs in the live in real.
8. Not all investors are well suited to investing in oil futures due to the very risk volatility of
market, as such, the best tip on investing in to always follow an entry and exit strategy.
CONCLUSIONS
Commodities market, contrary to the beliefs of many people has been in existence in
India through the ages. However the recent attempt by the Government to permit Multicommodity National levels exchanges has indeed given it, a shot in the arm. Commodity
includes all kinds of goods.
FCRA defines goods as every kind of movable property other than actionable claims,
money and securities. Futures trading are organized in such goods or commodities as
are permitted by the Central Government.
Firstly, the price movements are more predictable, purely based on demand and supply
of that commodity, unlike in other markets where price manipulations are very much
possible, hence the investor is fixed. To that extent market price risk is reduced.
The future contracts available on a wide spectrum of commodities like ,crude oil ,
Cotton, Steel, Soya oil, Soya beans, Wheat, Sugar, Channa etc., provide excellent
opportunities for hedging the risks of the formers ,importers, exporters, traders and large
scale consumer.
Oil is the single most important commodity that leads the position of key factors in each
and every economy of the world the worlds reaches nation are at there current position
just because of oil factor.
The commodity trading is a sophisticated form of investing it similar to stock trading but
instead of buying and selling shares of company an investor buys and sells commodities.
CHAPTER 6
BIBLIOGRAPHY
BIBILOGRAPHY
1.
2.
Sharpe W.F. Alexander J. Bailey, investments, 1998, 5th edition, Derivatives, Prentice
Hall of India,.
3.
SCHAUM"S out lines, investments,2nd edition, new chapters on future And options
WEBSITES:
www.COMEX.com
www.COMEX.com
www.mcx.com
www.derivativesindi