Influence of Social Networks in The Decision To Vote An Exploratory Survey On The Ecuadorian Electorate

International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015 15
Influence of Social Networks

in the Decision to Vote:
An Exploratory Survey on the
Ecuadorian Electorate
Daniel Barredo Ibez, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabi, Manta,

Ecuador
Carlos Arcila Caldern, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid, Spain
Jess Arroyave, Universidad del Norte, Barranquilla, Colombia
Roxana Silva, FLACSO, Quito, Ecuador
ABSTRACT
The popularization of the Internet and the adoption of social media have brought major
changes in the way of doing politics and managing the public arena. There is extensive
scientific literature confirming the relationship between the use of new media and electoral
political participation (Willnat et al, 2013; Lee and Shin, 2014; Ceron et al, 2014.). The
aim of this study is to determine the mechanism by which using social networks influences
the decision to vote. Ecuadorian citizens (n= 3,535) took part in an exploratory survey
during the first half of 2013. The authors tested the measures and scales included in the
questionnaire for validity and reliability; and they used a moderated mediation model
(Hayes, 2013) based on regression. Results show that positive influence of using social
networks on the decision to vote is not given directly, but rather through the search for
information and need for political deliberation. In this mediation process, the indirect
effect is in turn negatively moderated by age (the effect is stronger in young people). It
is argued that despite the influence that networks may have on the behavior of voters,
traditional factors related to the search for political information in more conventional
means (e.g. radio or TV) seem to have a more significant effect. The authors explain both
theoretical and practical implications. Finally, they address the studys limitations regarding the representativeness of the sample and suggest testing the model in other political
and cultural contexts.
Keywords: Decision to Vote, Ecuador, Political Information, Political Participation,
Social Networks
DOI: 10.4018/IJEP.2015100102
Copyright 2015, IGI Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of IGI Global is prohibited.
16 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015
1. INTRODUCTION: THE ECUADORIAN

ELECTORAL CONTEXT
Ecuadors democracy has been one of the most unstable systems in the world due
to the lack of a strong support group (Snchez, 2008, p. 233) to the democratic
model, among other circumstances. From 1996 to 2006, for example, all the
elected presidents had to terminate their terms abruptly (Tibocha and Jaramillo,
2008). However, with the electoral victory of Rafael Correa in 2006, the Andean
Republic has initiated a new process in which the economic, cultural, social and
legislative bases are being examined, as described by Hawkins (2011); Becker
(2012, 2013); Polga (2013); Arevalo (2014); and Barredo, Silva and Martens
(2015), among others. Rafael Correa, unlike other presidents, has managed to
extend his term for at least eight years by adopting a style that Levitsky and
Loxton (2013, p. 107) named as competitive authoritarianism. But the truth is
that, according to Latinobarometro (2013, p. 7), Ecuador is the second country in
Latin America where the support for democracy further increased - 13 percentage
points-, between 1995 and 2013. On the other hand, the same source notes that, in
2013, support for authoritarianism still reached 13% of the population, compared
to 18% in 1996 (p. 10).
The Ecuadorian electoral context, along with the customization of the Citizen
Revolution (Revolucin ciudadana in Spanish) lead by President Rafael Correa 1,
has particular characteristics. First, voting is compulsory for people over 18
years of age -in accordance with Article 62.1 of the 2008 Constitution-, but it is
optional for people aged between 16 and 17 years -in accordance with Article
62.2 of the same- (Constituent Assembly, 2008, p. 45). This feature encourages
a high participation in the presidential elections, estimated at about 70% of the
population (Freidenberg, 2013b, p. 81), a percentage that contrasts with the low
levels of social participation observed in overall politics (Col. and Mier, 2011) and
media (Ayala and Calvache, 2009). Second, unlike other neighboring countries,
the Executive Branch, Legislative Branch, Judicial Branch and Citizen Participation Branch are complemented by the Electoral Branch, established by the Article
217 of the Constitution (Constituent Assembly, 2008, p. 71), and regulated by the
Organic law on elections [LOE in Spanish] enacted in 2009. Said law establishes
criteria of quality and transparency in the electoral routines (art. 6), the regulation
of political rights (art. 14) and, among others, the appointment of institutions
-the National Electoral Council and the Electoral Dispute Settlement Court- as
guarantors of the principles contained in the legislation (art. 18). The approval of
the LOE brought many changes regarding the transparency of parties, the candidates selection process, as well as the depoliticization of the Electoral Power
(Freidenberg, 2011, p. 42), to name a few.
In Ecuador, elections are severely limited by offline traditions, since only

four out of ten Ecuadorians had access to Internet in 2013, according to official
figures (Ministry of Telecommunications and Information Society, 2014, May
19). Also, authors like Barredo and Silva (2014) have stressed the existence of
some deficiencies related to the populations digital literacy; according to the
National Statistics and Census Institute (n. d.., p. 26), up to 20.8% of Ecuadorians
could be considered digital illiterates in 2013. However, in a study conducted
in the cities of Quito and Riobamba between 2013 and 2014, it was found that
one third of the respondents thought social networks were more reliable than the
mainstream media (Barredo, Perez Zuniga, Vivas and Fernandez, 2015, p. 106).
This emerging reliability is balanced with the prominence these platforms bring
into the Ecuadorian public sphere. Leon (2007) and Rivera (2014) emphasize that
the victory of Rafael Correa in 2006 was mainly due to the efficient management
of his presence in the cybersphere. Since that historic moment, President Correa
has often used social networks -specially his Twitter account- to interact with the
public, because dialogue through the Internet fosters a direct relationship (Freidenberg, 2013a, p. 5) between the Ecuadorian president and his constituents. It
is important to keep in mind that Ecuador is characterized by its social, cultural
and political gaps, up to the point that many of the posts in these networks mainly
reach the various elite groups in the country (Barredo & Silva, 2014, p. 7).
Although more than half of the Ecuadorians do not have access to the Internet,
and although some of those who do are largely unaware of how to effectively use
it, the Government shows extreme sensitivity to what happens in the cybersphere.
The Organic Law on Communication, a set of rules to regulate the management
of symbolic content, was approved in 2013; however, it did not contemplate the
regulation of interpersonal content. Nevertheless, continuous state action has
been progressively restraining citizens from participating in the digital public
sphere; while Rivera claimed that comments were the most widely used interaction strategy by Ecuadorian media in 2012, three years later we witness its almost
total extinction in the cybermedia. Some judicial changes, which may reduce the
capacity of public response, are also noteworthy. An example of the previously
stated are cases that expose the countrys restraining role, such as the arrest of a
Twitter user for posting threats against President Correa: Hail @MashiRafael,
those who are about to kill you, salute you (El Universo, 2011, December 4);
or the arrest warrant issued against a blogger for offending the Attorney General
of the State on his blog (El Universo, 2012, January 11). Another famous case
occurred in early 2015, when President Rafael Correa publicly confronted the
owner of a meme website who decided to deactivate his Facebook account after
the presidents satirical remarks, due to alleged threats (El Comercio, 2015 January
26, El Universo, 2015, February 19). With the pretext of persecuting the trolls of
the Revolution, the Ecuadorian president also announced the creation of a website
called Somos Ms -We Are More- (Mena, 2015, February 10) in response to the
alleged orchestrated hordes of critics in cyberspace.
With all of these elements we aim to determine how social networks influence
voting intentions in Ecuador, with emphasis on the analysis of their use to search for
information and continue or start discussions in the public sphere. The results can
be exceptionally useful by introducing new elements in a field -political participation and social-networks- which has broad implications for the Andean republic.
2. SOCIAL NETWORKS AND POLITICAL INFORMATION

There is extensive literature that provides sufficient empirical evidence on how the
media affect the audiences political decisions (Bennett & Entman, 2001; Eveland
& Hively, 2009; Hochschild, 2010; Shah et al., 2005). Although the relationship
between the consumption of media and its influence on the different aspects of
political life is not always clear, the fact is that such research is very important
in both the political arena and the field of communication; at the same time, it
has evolved to the extent that the media supply has become more complex and
varied. Research has evolved from the classic study by Paul Lazarsfeld in 1940
on how the print media and radio influenced peoples voting decision in Erick
County, Ohio (The Peoples Choice, 1944), to the impact of the Web 2.0, whose
interactive features and easy access through mobile devices have caused a radical
change in the media landscape and the way both citizens and candidates for public
office participate in politics.
An important strand of studies have focused on identifying the most widely
used or most influential channels in political decision-making as a central variable (Bennett & Entman, 2001; Robinson & Davis, 1990; Robinson & Levy, 1996;
Weaver & Drew, 2001). According to research by Bennett & Entman (2001),
both the newspaper and the television emerged as the most influential media in
the political communication context. A more recent study conducted by the Pew
Research Center (2012) during the 2012 presidential debate, found that traditional
media are used more extensively when following the presidential public debates.
Thus, Pew found that 56% of respondents watched the debate live on TV, 11%
watched it on the TV station website and social media, while only 3% of them
only watched the debate on social media.
Another strand of studies have found a positive correlation between being
informed about political issues and exercising the right to vote (Blais, 2000;
Hochschild, 2010; Gerber, Karlan, and Bergan, 2009; Pande, 2011). For example,
Gerber, Karlan, and Bergan (2009) reported that there is indeed a linkage between
newspaper reading and voting. As they stated, Our investigation of the effect of
newspapers on political attitudes, behavior, and subject knowledge of news events
found that even short exposure to a daily newspaper appears to influence voting
behavior and may affect turnout behavior (p. 47) . Also, being subscribed to a
newspaper may be a good predictor of voting intention. On their part, Gentzkow
et al., (2011) found a statistically significant correlation between peoples voting
behavior and their subscription to the local newspaper.
More recent studies have considered the use of internet and its influence on
the political context. For example, McClurg (2003) found a significant relationship between the voters intention and an increased frequency of political deliberation in social networks. Similarly, Zhang et al. (2010) examined social media
and political participation and found a significant positive linkage between social
media and civic participation, as well as a positive significant linkage between
civic and political participation and interpersonal discussion. In other words, the
greater the use of social media, the greater the civic participation and the greater
the civic and political participation, the more widely these issues will be discussed
in social networks.
However, not all findings regarding political participation and the use of social media are positive. In this way, studies carried out by Cappella et al. (2002)
and Price and Cappella (2002), based on the analysis of discussions touching the
elections in 2000, found that participation in online discussions could not only
raise awareness of the opposing points of view, but also lead to the polarization of
views on political issues. On the other hand, Panagopoulos, Georgieva, Slotnick,
Gulati and Williams (2009) found, through a multivariate regression study based
on updating some political parties pages on Facebook, that this social environment did not have an impact on the 2006 elections in terms of percentage of the
final votes.
In the same vein, in Politics on social media, a study by the Pew Research
Center, a strong linkage between the use of social networks and the intention to
engage politically was not found. In this way, one in four users (25%) of social
networking sites expressed having participated more actively in political issues
after discussing a subject or reading a post on the Web site, 16% reported having
changed their perspective on a political issue after discussing or reading a post
and 9% said that they became less interested in a political issue after participating
on a Web site. Although some level of participation in social media is observed
according to this study, the results are not very strong. Thus, 84% of users of
social networking sites said they posted little or no content related to political
issues in their most recent update, comment or link; only 6% said that most or all
of their posts were related to politics and 10% said they had posted some content
related to politics.
While the influence of social networks in the voters intention remains the
subject of debate, this issue is of vital importance if we keep in mind that more and
more citizens use these social networks for political purposes. For example, 69%
of US citizens reported using social media in 2012, compared with 37% in 2008.
22% of registered voters shared their intention to vote for a certain presidential
candidate in social media and 35% encouraged others to vote in elections through
social networks (Raine, Smith, Schlozman, Brady & Verba, 2012).
3. THEORETICAL PERSPECTIVE
The uses and gratifications theory emerges as a suitable framework for understanding the importance of the increasing use of social media in politics, specifically,
the decision to vote. This theory has its origins in the work by researcher Herta
Herzog in the United States in the 1940s. Herzog (1944) analyzed why housewives listened to the radio, particularly soap operas, during the day. Her findings
emphasized the notion of an active audience seeking to meet certain inner needs
in the media. Thus, housewives listened to these romantic fictional series because
they provided them with three types of gratifications: listening to other peoples
problems released them emotionally, listening to the stories helped them develop
wishful thinking and keep their minds off everyday problems and finally, listening
to the stories could give them ideas on how to act if they faced similar situations.
As the first precedent of the theory, this approach allowed to establish certain
gratifications and how they were associated with the consumption of media. As
stated by Baran & Davis (1995), In contrast with the typical effect research being done in Lazarsfelds shop, Herzog didnt try to measure the influence that
soap listening has on women. She was satisfied with assessing their reasons and
experience -their uses and gratifications (p. 212).
However, Katz, Blumer and Gurevitch (1974) articulated the theory in a clear
way. According to them, the audience is active and uses the media in order to
meet certain needs. The main idea is to link the audiences needs for gratification with their choice of specific content (West & Turner, 2005). These needs for
gratification have been classified into five categories: Cognitive, concerning the
acquisition of information; Affective, regarding the experience of emotional or
aesthetic events; Personal Integrative, associated to the enhancement of credibility,
trust or status; Social Integrative, aiming to strengthen connections with family
or friends; and Tension release, aiming to evade reality or have fun. Therefore,
in the context of social networks and voter decision making, when we use social
media to learn about our peers opinion on candidates or check on Facebook or
Twitter for gaining insight into their government plans, is a clear example of using the media to meet a specific need.
Different studies are based on the uses and gratifications theory in order to
establish the linkage between the media and political participation. For example,
Papacharissi and Rubin (2000) found that the main reason for using the Internet
was to find information related to politics. In a study on the use of the Internet
and its perceived effects on political life, Tian (2006) found that the more that
people use the Internet for political reasons to express their ideas and actively
participate, the more they perceive its effects on political life. Meanwhile Park et
al. (2009), found that the more young people use the Internet to search for information, the more they participate in civic activities. Also, studies by Kenski and
Stroud (2006) and Jennings and Zeitner (2003) report that people who use the
Web are more linked to political processes and engaged in other political activities, such as voting.
4. HYPOTHESES
H1: Using social networks for political and electoral information positively influences the decision to vote.
H2: Using social networks for political and electoral information positively influences the decision to vote through the search for information and the need
for political deliberation:
H2.1: Using social networks for political and electoral information positively
influences the search for information and need for political deliberation;
H2.2: The search for information and need for political deliberation positively
influences the decision to vote.
H3: The influence of using social networks for political and electoral information
on the search for information and need for political deliberation is moderated
by age.
H4: Using social networks for political and electoral information positively influences, though moderated by age, the search for information and need for
political deliberation, which in turn positively influences the decision to vote.
Figure 1 shows a graphical representation of the above hypotheses.
Figure 1. Model of the hypothesized relationship among the study variables
5. METHOD
5.1. Sample and Procedure
3,535 Ecuadorians aged over 16 years (legal age for voting in this country) took
part in an exploratory survey by The National Electoral Council [CNE in Spanish] in the first half of 2013 (CNE, 2014). According to the voter registration list,
11,675,441 people were registered that year (CNE, 2014: 30). The questionnaires
were administered in person by a previously trained team; the sample was chosen
randomly among attendees of national events organized by the CNE and citizens
participating in electoral events during the presidential elections in February 2014.
It is a non-probability sampling, which means that results cannot be extrapolated
to the total population; however, due to the large sampling size (n = 3,535) it is
possible to draw inferences about the processes and hypotheses under study.
According to the exploratory results, 48.5% of respondents were mostly young
females (9.1% <18; 18.7% 18-23; 25.2% 24-30; 21.8% 31-40; 13.8% 41-50; 8.4%
51-65, 0.8%> 66). About half of respondents have undergraduate degrees (48.9%)
and graduate degrees (5.3%) compared to those who have achieved primary
(10.8%) and secondary education (33.6%). In 2008, ECLAC (2013, p. 63) states
that there was a 38.9% gross enrollment rate in third-level education, which is
higher than the average for Latin America and the Caribbean (22.8%). As Santos
(2012, p. 6) describes, approximately only 3.7% of the Ecuadorian employed
population have undergraduate degrees; therefore respondents were mostly active
students because roughly seven in ten individuals were thirty years old or less.
Most of the respondents had an average income level (64.7%), with a minority
of low (29.1%) or high income (3.8%); it should be noted that, according to official figures, 97.9% of the employed population in Ecuador was unhappy about
having low income (Santos, 2012, p. 6). Also, between 2011 and 2012, 32.5%
of Ecuadorians earned the minimum wage or twice its value, while 21.7% earned
less than the minimum wage (INEC, 2012); La Hora, 2013, May 4). These two
sampling characteristics (university and average income) show a clear difference
regarding the Ecuadorian population, because the general population has lower
educational and -income levels than the sample.
5.2. Measurements
In order to know if the citizens decide to vote, we posed a dichotomous question:
Did you vote in any election before 2013? (0 = no, 1 = yes). We used this indicator as the dependent variable (DV) of the study, under the name Decision to vote.
We used two independent variables (IV). For the first IV, using social networks
for political and electoral information, we created an index (0-1) from the mean
of three indicators:
1. Did you use social networks for information before voting in 2013? (0 = no,
1 = yes)
2. Do you think social networks are useful to make a decision to vote? (0 = no,
1 = yes)
3. Has the information from social networks changed or possibly changed your
vote? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
The second IV, search for information and need for political deliberation, was
also built with an index (0-1) which included the mean of the following indicators:
1. Do you do some research before voting? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
2. Have you received information on electoral candidates and their government
plans? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
3. Are you interested in partisan politics? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
4. Are you interested in joining discussions about the candidates government
plans? (0 = no, 1 = yes)
The questions were designed by a panel of experts previously chosen by the
National Electoral Council. In order to know the construct validity of the independent variables, we performed an Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA), which allows
for identification of underlying factors in a series of variables (Prez-Gil, Chacon
and Moreno, 2000; Maca, 2010; Igartua, 2006). The indicators were analyzed
with (orthogonal) Varimax rotation and the EFA suggested a latent two-component
structure (Table 1), which accounts for 49.96% of the variance for the set of the 7
indicators. The Kaiser-Meyer Olkin test determined that the sample was factorable
(KMO = 0.678). Using social networks for political and electoral information
(factor 1) obtained an Eigen value of 2.11 and accounted for 30.13% of the variTable 1. Charges in the EFA with Varimax rotation
Component
1
Do you do some research before voting?
-.029
.669
Have you received information on electoral candidates and their government plans?
.054
.609
Are you interested in partisan politics?
.099
.657
Are you interested in joining discussions about the candidates government plans?
.146
.581
Did you use social networks for information before voting in 2013?
.664
.248
Do you think social networks are useful to make a decision to vote?
.843
.055
Has the information from social networks changed or possibly changed your vote?
.810
-.032
Note: Loads> 0.4 are shown in bold.
ance, while the search for information and need for political deliberation (factor
2) obtained an Eigen value of 1.39 and accounted for 19.83% of the variance.
We used Cronbachs Alpha test, which measures the correlation between the
indicators of the same construct, in order to determine the internal consistency
reliability of each of these constructs. The first factor obtained 0.670 and the
second one 0.508. Although both variables did not obtain the ideal minimum
values of 0.70 (Cronbach, 1951; Hayes, 2005), they are very close to the minimum
required of 0.60 for exploratory research (Hair et al., 2000; Robinson, Shaver and
Wrightsman 1991).
5.3. Analysis
First, we performed an exploratory and descriptive analysis of the variables. Then,
we carried out a moderated mediation analysis (also known as conditional indirect effects) with the macro PROCESS for SPSS (Model 7), developed by Hayes
(2013) in order to address the hypotheses of this study (H1, H2, H2.1, H2.2, H3
and H4). This type of analysis is performed to check if a possible indirect effect
(the effect of X to Y through a third variable M) is in turn influenced by another
variable, W, which moderates the magnitude of that effect. The model is based
on linear regression by estimating ordinary least squares (OLS); in the case of
our dichotomous dependent variable, it is based on binary logistic regression. We
performed the analysis with 10,000 bootstrap samples (95% and bias-corrected
confidence intervals), with which it is not necessary to satisfy the assumptions of
OLS (normality, lack of multicollinearity, etc.).
6. RESULTS
Descriptive results (Table 2) show that the vast majority of respondents (85.2%)
has exercised their right to vote, which indicates the samples active political
participation through voting. Respondents showed an average level of use of social networks for electoral information (M = 0.45, SD = 0.36). This is the result
of 3 indicators that aim to investigate the citizens use of social media to find
information related to the elections. As shown in Table 2, 45.4% of citizens said
they had used social networks for information before voting in 2013; 50.5% said
social networks are useful for getting information before voting, and 38.8%
said the information received through social networks has changed or possibly
changed their vote.
Data also show an average level in the search for information and need for
political discussion of Ecuadorians (M = 0.56, SD = 0.31). This index consisted
of four items on the instrument, from which we can state that 66.1% of respondents always do some research before voting, 53.8% have received information on
candidates and their government plans, 33.7% are interested in partisan politics
Table 2. Descriptive data of the study

No (0)
Item
Frequency
Yes (1)
%
Frequency
Index
%
VD. Decision to vote

Did you vote in any of the
elections before 2013?
494
14.8
2849
SE
0.85
0.36
0.45
0.38
0.56
0.31
85.2
VI. Using social networks

for political and electoral
information
Did you use social networks
for information before voting
In 2013?
1862
54.6
1546
45.4
Do you find social networks

useful to make a decision to
vote?
1688
49.5
1722
50.5
Has the information you receive

in social networks changed or
possibly changed your vote?
2077
61.2
1319
38.8
VI. Search for information

and need for political
deliberation
Do you always do some
research before voting?
1030
33.9
2012
66.1
Have you received electoral

information on the candidates
and their government plans?
1586
46.2
1846
53.8
Are you interested in partisan

politics?
1819
66.3
926
33.7
Are you interested in debating

the content of the candidates
work plans?
1387
40.5
2039
59.5
and 59.5% are interested in debating the content of the candidates government
plans. Overall, these indicators show that respondents expressed some interest in
political issues.
In order to test the hypotheses of the study, we carried out a moderated mediation model based on regression OLS (Figure 2). Results show that, when all
the variables included in the model are taken into account, the effect of using
social networks for political and electoral information in the decision to vote is
not significant (B = 0.12; p = 0.56, CI = -0.28 to 0.51), i.e. there is no direct effect, so we cannot empirically support H1. However, this relationship does occur
owing to an indirect effect through the search for information and the need for
political deliberation (significant for the 5 levels of the moderator). This means
that an increased use of social networks for political information leads to a greater
search for information in other media and a greater need for political deliberation,
Figure 2. Regressions and moderate mediation analysis
which in turn increases the likelihood that the person will decide to vote. This
mediational relationship empirically supports H2. In this sense, H2.1 and H2.2
are tested; they suggest that using social networks for political and electoral information positively influences the search for information and need for political
deliberation (B= 0.25; p <0.001; CI = 0.16 to 0.35) and the search for information
and need for political deliberation positively influence the decision to vote (B =
0.96; p <0.001; CI = 0.46 to 1.45).
We also find that age moderates the relationship found in H2.1. Specifically,
we find that the effect of using social networks for political and electoral information on the search for information and need for political deliberation is negatively
moderated by age (B = -0.03; p <0.05; CI = -0.05 to -0.00). The interaction of these
variables mean that the older that people are, the less the effect of a variable on
the other, which empirically supports H3. In other words, we find a greater effect
of using social networks on the level of search for political information among
younger voters. In sum, we find that there is a conditional indirect effect in the
proposed model (Figure 2), in which the linkage between using social networks
and the decision to vote is not given directly, but through the search for political
information and this effect is greater in younger voters, which confirms H4.
The conditional indirect effect (Table 3) was calculated for different age levels
(percentiles 10, 25, 50, 75 and 90).
7. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

Results show a strong linkage between the use of social networks and political
participation. This indicates that the spaces generated for discussion can contribute
Table 3. Conditional indirect effect

Age
Effect
Boot DE
Boot LLCI
Boot ULCI
0.19
0.06
0.0881
0.3205
0.19
0.06
0.0881
0.3205
0.17
0.05
0.0763
0.2679
0.14
0.04
0.0645
0.2369
0.11
0.04
0.0463
0.2134
to greater political participation, to the detriment of apathy and disinterest (Cappella & Jamieson, 1997). However, our data suggest that this linkage is not given
directly, but it is mediated by the citizens interest in searching for information
and their need for political deliberation. This highlights the importance of the
uses and gratifications perspective (Herzog, 1944; Baran & Davis, 1995; Katz,
Blumer & Gurevitch, 1974) in order to understand the impact of new forms of
communication in political processes.
Empirical evidence in the Ecuadorian electorate shows that an increased use
of social networks does not directly affect the citizens voting intention. In this
regard, when a mediating variable is introduced, the effect of using the Web on
the increased political participation is unclear (Kenski & Stroud, 2006; Jennings
& Zeitner., 2003; Park et al, 2009). On the contrary, data suggest that it is the
interest in getting political information which ultimately leads to increased political participation. In fact, this interest is directly related to the use of Internet
(Papacharissi & Rubin, 2000, Tian, 2006), as confirmed by the results in our
study of a significant interaction between the variables using social networks for
political and electoral information and the search for information and need for
political deliberation.
This interaction, and the indirect effect it entails, is in turn negatively moderated by age, which means that this relationship is stronger among young people.
This relationship is not surprising if we consider that young people are the largest
consumers of social networks, which makes them more vulnerable to the power
of the Internet (in Ecuador voting is optional between the ages of 16 and 18). In
this context, although there is no clear consensus on the influence of age on the
adoption of technology, it seems that digital natives (Prensky, 2003) are more
likely to use social media in order find out political information.
In sum, this research shows that in the Ecuadorian political and social context,
the use of social networks, mostly among young people, contributes to the increase
of electoral participation as long as citizens are motivated to search for political
information, since the latter really affects the voting intention. These findings
have theoretical implications; on the one hand, they provide empirical support for
the theory of uses and gratifications in the light of new media consumption; and,
on the other, they pose the effects of technologies through more cognitive and
cultural variables. In practical terms, our data can contribute to better planning of
campaigns aimed to promote electoral participation, based on the understanding
of the mechanisms through which the influence of social networks - sometimes
overrated- operate.
The results of this study are not intended to be conclusive of the reality in
Ecuador, since the sample was non-probabilistic and the sectors of higher education and income levels are overrepresented. Additionally, the particular context
(traditional political instability and emerging digital literacy) of Ecuador can lead
to different results when compared with those of Western developed countries. In
addition, further progress is needed in the development of more reliable constructs
for the measurement of the variables in this study. Future research may aim to corroborate the indirect effects (the use of social networks on political participation)
in other countries and election periods and introduce other mediating variables
in the proposed model.
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ENDNOTES
1
It is no coincidence that the initials of this movement as the same as Ecuadorian presidents, says Hector Cespedes (cit. By Rivera, 2014, p. 121), a
feature of the excessive presidential self-promotion denounced by authors
such as De la Torre (2013).

Influence of Social Networks in The Decision To Vote An Exploratory Survey On The Ecuadorian Electorate

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International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015 15

Influence of Social Networks

Daniel Barredo Ibez, Universidad Laica Eloy Alfaro de Manabi, Manta,

16 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

1. INTRODUCTION: THE ECUADORIAN

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In Ecuador, elections are severely limited by offline traditions, since only

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2. SOCIAL NETWORKS AND POLITICAL INFORMATION

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20 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

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22 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

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Do you do some research before voting?

Are you interested in partisan politics?

Do you think social networks are useful to make a decision to vote?

Note: Loads> 0.4 are shown in bold.

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Table 2. Descriptive data of the study

VD. Decision to vote

VI. Using social networks

Do you find social networks

Has the information you receive

VI. Search for information

Have you received electoral

Are you interested in partisan

Are you interested in debating

26 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

Figure 2. Regressions and moderate mediation analysis

7. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

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Table 3. Conditional indirect effect

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Eveland, W. P. Jr, & Hively, M. H. (2009). Political discussion frequency, network

International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015 31

Igartua, J. (2006). Mtodos cuantitativos de investigacin en comunicacin. Barcelona: Bosch.

32 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

Ministerio de Telecomunicaciones y Sociedad de la Informacin. (2014, May 19).

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34 International Journal of E-Politics, 6(4), 15-34, October-December 2015

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