Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Kazuhiko FUKAMI
International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk
Management under the auspices of UNESCO
(UNESCO-ICHARM),
Public Works Research Institute (PWRI), Japan
Rainfall
observa,on
with
ground-based
raingauges
JAXA-GSMaP
(Quasi-real-,me)
Courtesy of JAXA
Towards
reduc,on/
preven,on
of
ood
disasters
network
Outline of IFAS
Satellite-based rainfall or
Local data (Ground rainfall)
<4>
Data input
Model creation
Run-off analysis
Output
Lower
tank
River
tank
Upper area
Lower
Hyetograph
Rainfall
Expression by tank
Rainfall
Rainfall
Time
Infiltration
modeling
Discharge
Groundwater flow
Time
Groundwater
tank
Runoff
output
Surface
flow
Subsurface
flow
Unconfined
groundwater
Surface
Tank
Evaporation
Hydrograph
<5>
runoff
Confined
groundwater
Surface Tank (Upper tank) Groundwater Tank (Lower tank) River Course Tank
AUD
HIFD
Sf2
HFMXD
Au (h S g ) 2 A
Sg
Sf1 HFMND
Sf0
HCGD
HIGD
HFOD
AGD
Surface flow:
1
L (h S f 2 ) 3 i
N
SNF
Subsurface flow:
FALFX
Infiltration:
Af 0 (h S f 0 ) /(S f 2 S f 0 )
SKF
Ag hA
It is possible to set
as groundwater loss.
Parameters of upper
tank varies by land
cover
(forest, bush and
RRID
=B
1 53
h
i
n
Elevation
Land use
Geology
Soil type
Product
Provider
ISCGM
GTOPO30
USGS
Hydro1k
USGS
GLCC
USGS
ISCGM
ISCGM
Geology
CGWM
Soil Texture
UNEP
UNEP
Soil Depth
GES
123.0
91.2
94.2
98.5
87.3
164.0
93.5
93.2
94.5
Creation of River channel network and basin shape based on elevation data
Elevation
3.
Input
value
for
each
tank
Infiltration Rough
capacity -ness
surface
groundwater
soil
0.0005
0.7
Mixed Forest
Parameter set
Tree Open
Shrub
Herbaceous
geology
0.00002
0.00001
0.000001 0.1
0.00001
Urban
Snow, ice
Water bodies
Interface display
Main display
Calculation result
Cross section
Hydrograph
Tank condition
Program
Remote Sensing of Precipitation from Space (JAXA)
Introduction of river administration in Japan
Introduction of Global Flood Alert System
Operating procedures for IFAS
Validation method of satellite-based rainfall
Current conditions and problems in each country
International Workshop on Application and Validation of GFAS
2008: Ethiopia, Zambia, Cuba, Argentina, Bangladesh, Guatemala, Nepal
(7countries)
2009: India, Indonesia, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Nepal, Laos (6countries)
" IFAS Seminars in overseas (sponsored by ADB, JAXA, UNESCAP, etc.)
Nepal (2009), Indonesia, Myanmar, Vietnam (2010),
Pakistan, Thailand, and India (2011)
" ICHARM PhD & Master Courses, JICA short courses, etc.
"
Nowshera
Satellite rainfall(3B42RT)
Discharge (m3/sec)
40,000
30,000
20,000
Ground rainfall data
were
2~7 times as many as
GSMaP ones. This
10,000
correction of GSMaP was
made on the basis of
0
each ratio of Thiessen
polygon (Ground/
7/27 7/28 7/29 7/30 7/31 8/1 8/2
GSMaP).
Date (2010,GMT)
GSMaP
(original)
44.5
6.5
Ground-gauged
99.0
40.0
Rate(Ground/GSMaP)
2.22
69.8
19.5
338.0
63.0
4.84
3.24
6.14
48.8
68.2
28.9
333.0
372.0
219.0
6.82
5.45
7.58
2
4
6
Rainfall (mm/hour)
(original GSMaP)
(corrected GSMaP)
(corrected GSMaP by Ground)
Calculated discharge(3B42RT)
(original GSMaP)
(corrected GSMaP)
(corrected GSMaP by Ground)
Measured discharge
Calculated by
Default parameter
8/3
8/4
Estimated hydrographs in
upper
10 & middle Indus river
with IFAS were on IFI-home.
11
Slope - River
interaction
Two dimensional
(diffusion wave)
Peshawar
Nowshera
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/fullmaps_sa.nsf/luFullMap/1063BC946E38009685257788006FF75B/$File/map.pdf?OpenElement
Average in
Kabul river basin
Inundation probability
The ratio of members which
maximum water depth exceed 1m.
Forecast at July 26
(23 00Z -26 00Z)
Input predicted rainfall
of 13 members.
Forecast at July 27
(24 00Z -27 00Z)
Ensemble members
with initial condition
before the beginning of
rainfall gave better
ensemble mean and
probability range.
probability
Forecast at July 28
(25 00Z -28 00Z)
Ensemble members
with their initial
conditions during the
rainfall period had large
variance.
Nov. 15
Nov. 30
Nov. 15
Nakhon Sawan
Ayutthaya
At
Nov.
1,
ooding
s,ll
remains
high
around
the
Nakhon
Sawan
and
Ayubhaya
At
Nov.
15,
ooding
around
the
Nakhon
Sawan
is
reduced
At
Nov.
30,
the
ooding
remains
only
par,ally
at
the
northern
part
of
Bangkok
500km
Flood in Dec.2007
Training Workshop
with BBWS Solo in
March, 2010
Wide-range analysis:
IFAS
High-res. analysis:
GETFLOWS
"
Flood in Dec.2007
18
Simulation
MRI-AGCM20km global
meteorological simulation
Inundation
Simulation
MRI-AGCM3.1S
MRI-AGCM3.2S
MRI-AGCM3.1S
MRI-AGCM3.2S
RedOverestimated
BlueUnder-estimated
MRI-AGCM3.1S
MRI-AGCM3.1S
RedOverestimated
BlueUnder-estimated
!
!
!
!
! !
!
!
!
!
!
!!
!
!!
!
! !
!!
!
!
!
!!
Monthly Precipitation
!!
!
!
Rainfall Station
Thiessen Polygon
MRI-AGCM3.1S:
Underestimation
Quantile-Quantile Plot
(Daily Precipitation)
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
!
Underestimation
Monthly Precipitation
Quantile-Quantile Plot
(Daily Precipitation)
B) Other value
They are divided into each month.
The samples in top 0.5% on probability of
non exceedance for observation, GCM20
Present and GCM20 Future are subtracted.
Probability of Non
Exceedance
A) Extreme Value
GCM20Future
Top
0.5%
GCM20Present
Observation
i =
P _ Obs i
GCM 20 _ Pr e i
Probability of Non
Exceedance
GCM20Future
GCM20Present
GCM20FutureCorrection
Observation
Top 0.5% of
probability of non exceedance
Daily Precipitation
Probability of Non
Exceedance
Except
top
0.5%
Observation
P _ Obs m _ i
GCM 20 _ Pr e m _ i
January
Daily Precipitation
February
Samples except
top 0.5% is divided
into each month.
Probability of Non Exceedance
m _ i =
Daily Precipitation
Daily Precipitation
Correction coefficient
is estimated for each
month and each
quantile.
December
Daily Precipitation
3.2S
3.2S-3.1S
(Difference
of the above
two simulations)
Coincidence
of change
trend among
6 models
(increace or
decrease)
Ensemble average of
6 models
<31>
Reference Point
on the main channel
Discharge
Calculated
by IFAS
Discharge
Calculated
by IFAS
Jarkundi
Kusum
Bagaso,
<32>
Projected
precipita,on
from
MRI-AGCM
3.1S
and
3.2S
Bias
corrected
daily
precipita,on
Present
:
1980~2004
Near
Future
:
2015~2039
Future
:
2075~2099
Inunda,on
simula,on
with
RRI
model
8 Days
11 Days
9 Days
12 Days
10 Days
3 days
4 days
8 days
10 days
6 days
100
0-1
days
yt 80
i
vit 60
cu
d
40
o
rp
1-2
days
2-3days
3
days
20
0
0
10
15
20
25
Depth
of
inundation
(cms)
30
35
22
(a)
st
Present
End of 21 Century
Damage
curve for agriculture
(b)
st
Present
End of 21 Century
34