Inception Report

terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

CHAPTER-l
INTRODUCTION

1.1 Objectives and scope of the work

The objective of the Project is to develop a land parcel (in line with emerging Guwahatis
landscape and Adabari in particular), into a modern Bus Terminus cum commercial
development, and
i.

to conduct techno-economic feasibility study,

ii.

procure transaction related advice,

iii.

develop a revenue model,

iv.

undertake a financial appraisal and

v.

assist in the bidding process and award of the Project in a manner which ensures:
(a) Participation by the best available companies in the bidding process;
(b) Financing of the capital cost by the Concessionaire; and
(c) Optimizing the revenue potential of the Project.

The scope of safety consultants for Safety audit includes the following:

1.1.1 Techno-Economic Feasibility Study

To Establish the Project Rationale
To collect all primary & secondary data on the existing project location, Bus
Terminal operations and bring out the need of the Project, its impact on the
existing situation and the benefits that will accrue to Guwahati City as a whole
and the state Government administration.
To obtain and verify all baseline data for the project to ensure accuracy and to
analyze availability of support infrastructure facilities like Power Supply,
Water Supply and Sewerage System, Transportation Linkages etc. as is
required for development of the Project.
To undertake necessary surveys related to the project i.e. topography survey,
geo-technical survey of the site through total station, terrain analysis (if any),
STC Pvt Ltd
Guwahati Municipal Corporation

Inception Report
terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

infrastructure survey, survey related to bus terminal, parking, stakeholders

survey etc.

To conduct Demand Assessment & Market Analysis

To forecast demand for the Project Components reliably during the tenor of
the concession.
Demand Assessment will be done of the Project components on standalone
basis.
Demand assessment will be undertaken keeping viability of the Individual
Project components as well as the Project as a whole.
To undertake market analysis towards present and proposed market rates for
commercial exploration of the Project components.
To conduct Assessment of Project Risk
To analyze various risks affecting to the project location, demand,
construction, revenue etc. with respect to implementation, operation and
maintenance of the Project and any other associated aspect with respect to
swifter development and running of the Project.
To determine the Project Scope / Project Planning
To design the Project based on the expected/ projected demand.
The scope of the Project would be defined in terms of necessary development
of Adabari Land parcel with allied commercial development along with Bus
Parking/ Bus Terminal.
To address development control norms, basic architectural specifications and
requirement of offsite infrastructure.
To develop conceptual layout/ Master Plan based on above, of the Project as a
whole as well as of the individual Project components.
The Master Plan would capture and denote the entire developable area in the
Project.
a) Commercial Development complementing the demand in the area.
b) Road and Landscaping
STC Pvt Ltd
Guwahati Municipal Corporation

Inception Report
terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

c) Bus Stand and Bus Parking facilities

d) Allied Parking facilities
e) Food Court (GMC has already developed the DPR for a Food Street
Project within the land which will be integrated into the project.)
The Design will be function of present and future commercial development
expected to come up in the project area along with Bus Traffic. Due care will
be taken towards the geo-technical characteristics of the site including
development control norms of Guwahati city. Overall layout and Design will
be finalized in due consultation with the Authority.
To address Social Issues
To address the social issues that may arise due to the development of the
Project.
To address Environmental Issues
To suggest environment compliance issues with respect to the Project.
The compliance issues that a developer needs to adhere to regarding the
environmental aspects shall be brought out in the TEFR submitted
To Determine Project Cost
i.

To determine costs related to the implementation of the project based on the

following:
Civil Structures which includes construction cost and Estimation of
Construction Period.
Utilities which include requirement of Power, Sewerage & Water Supply, Area
Lighting, communication facilities etc.

ii.

To determine Total Project Cost

The Total Project Cost will be based on costs as ascertained above and the
expected implementation schedule and will comprise:
Construction Cost
Preliminary and Pre-operative Cost
Environment and Social Impact Mitigation Cost as per the requirement of the

STC Pvt Ltd

Guwahati Municipal Corporation

Inception Report
terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

Project
Interest during Construction
Any other aspect that may be specifically required
iii.

To determine Estate Management Expenses including Manpower Cost,

Utility
Cost, Rent, Taxes and Overhead Cost, etc.

To determine Project Revenues

To conduct the market survey for two important segments:
-

Real Estate and other Commercial utility as being conceived for the
Project.

Bus Parking, Terminal Fees etc as required for operation of the Bus
Terminal

The survey will help establish an acceptable Revenue Schedule for all the
aspects of the Project. The revenue streams shall be in form of parking fees,
terminal fees, lease rental, User Charges and other value added services viz.
advertisement etc.
To draw out a detailed TEFR based on above, including cost of project, means
of finance, profitability parameters, projected balance sheet, cash flow,
statements of working capital, cost of capital, IRR, DSCR, payback and break
even analysis based on the cost & revenue streams identified.
To conduct a sensitivity analysis by identifying the most critical factors and
determining their impact on the Project Profitability, including varying project
costs and benefits, implementation period, and combinations of these factors.
To identify the Operation and Maintenance requirements and work out the
most sustainable financial model for smooth running & maintenance of the
Project.
To calculate IRR over a concession period of 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, 25
years and 30 years respectively.
To quantify and recommend ideal concession period, looking into the Project
parameters as well as Authoritys interest.

STC Pvt Ltd

Guwahati Municipal Corporation

Inception Report
terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

If the IRR of the Project, based on the aforesaid calculations is less than 15%,
an effort will be made to reduce the capital costs in consultation with the
Authority by omitting/ modifying some of the proposed structures or by
phasing them after a period of four to seven years or more, such that the IRR
reaches a minimum acceptable value of 15%.
To Develop Baseline Financial Projections
To recommend concession period in line with Project Need and Government
interest and undertake a detailed financial assessment of the Project and
generate detailed financial projections through the life of the concession
period.
To construct Detailed Financials to determine the expected cash flows of the
Project and subsequently to assess their sensitivity to various scenarios. The
financials shall help to determine the most appropriate format for
implementation. This exercise will generate the baseline projections for use by
the prospective developers / Operators. Further, it will recommend the optimal
financial structure for the Project and outline the steps necessary to mobilize
funds from capital markets, domestic financial institutions, banks etc.
Project Scoping /Phasing
To revisit Project components and reassess, if any, the need for expanding the
project scope to increase revenues based on the financial viability of the
Project
To look into phasing of the Project towards proper implementation of the
Project in a manner that present operations of the running Bus Terminal do not
get hampered. Phasing will also be looked into depending on the Project
funding needs etc.
To Review the Regulatory Framework
To outline the existing regulation and indicate how the same has to be
undertaken for swifter implementation of the Project.
To conduct Risk Assessment, Allocation and Mitigation Plan
To conduct Risk Assessment (Commercialization of public infrastructure
requires mapping of risks relating to Project Implementation, Financing and
Operations).
To establish a "Risk Allocation and Mitigation Plan", based on this risk
assessment. This plan will provide a transparent and an equitable basis for
STC Pvt Ltd
Guwahati Municipal Corporation

Inception Report
terminus cum commercial centre

Techno-Economic Feasibility Study for Bus

Guwahati

assigning and mitigation of risks associated with the implementation of the

Project.
To provide two successful case studies of similar development of Bus Stand cum
commercial development.
1.2 Approach and Methodology
Stage 1: Conduct of Traffic studies
Stage 2: Bus Terminal Demand Assessment
Study of Existing Scenario:
I. Study of Bus Terminal Supply (Buses using the existing terminal):
- Enumeration of Total Number
- Enumeration of Peak Number
II. Study of Passenger Characteristics:
- Enumeration of Total Number
- Enumeration of Peak Number
III. Study of Parking Characteristics:
- Study of Buses (Idle Parking and Night Time Parking)
- Study of Users (Passengers Alighting and Boarding)
- Study of IPT Characteristics
Forecast for Horizon Year:
-

Bus Terminal demand is the derived demand

Econometric modeling would be used to derive the growth factor, and the
parameters considered would be:
- Population (of project influence area)
- Per Capita Income (PCI)
- Net State Domestic Product (NSDP)
- Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Stage 3: Estimation of Facilities required based on Demand Forecast
- Bus Bay and terminal area
- Parking area
- Circulation area
- Maintenance area
- Facilities for passenger
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Guwahati Municipal Corporation