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On 7 October 2015, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Franois H
ollande made a rare joint address at the European Parliament to recognise the se
riousness of the ongoing socio-political turmoil within Europe and warned that t
he European Union was on the verge of breakdown. Francois Hollande cautioned Eur
opean member-states to show solidarity in jointly solving common problems both w
ithin Europe and in its immediate neighbourhood, failing which end of Europe and
tal war could become inevitable.[115][116][117][118] It had been 26 years since t
he leaders of France and Germany jointly addressed the European Parliament: Fran
cois Mitterrand and Helmut Kohl made a joint appeal for solidarity towards East
Germans just weeks after the fall of the Berlin Wall.[119][120]
Controversial actions on migrants, sovereign debt and engine exhaust control by
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schuble and Volkswagen
respectively have boomeranged out of control and severely compromised Germany's
arduous 70-year long image makeover.[121][122][123][124][125][126][127][128][12
9][130] Europe-wide acceptance of Germany's leadership role of the European Unio
n hangs in the balance after widespread dismay at the rigid political stance ado
pted by the German government and perceptions that the harsh conditions which Ge
rmany sought to impose upon Greece during the Greek sovereign debt crisis were o
verbearingly punitive.[131][132][133][134][135] Portrayal of Germany as a normat
ive model of honesty, efficiency and ethics (incessantly repeated by German offi
cials, mass media and private citizens during the Greek sovereign debt crisis)[1
36] came undone following revelations of fraud at a global level on an industria
l scale by Volkswagen.[137][138][139][140][141][142][143][144] Time Magazine ter
med the actions of Volkswagen as "superbly engineered deception, with 11 million
VW diesel cars fitted with special software that enabled them to cheat on emiss
ions tests.(...) German industry was supposed to be above this sort of thing or at
least too smart to get caught."[145] A reality-check of the geopolitical power
of individual members of the G4 nations at the 2015 UN General Assembly and prac
tical aspects of Asian geopolitical compulsions have influenced India's choice t
o refocus on strategic bilateral engagements with France and UK who are UNSC P5
member States. The inevitability of a security reordering in Eurasia, impending
transformation of the political landscape within the European Union due to the u
nchecked rise of Euroscepticism, fast deteriorating security situation on the Ea
stern and Southern periphery of the European Union, assertive manoeuvring by Rus
sia & China in their traditional areas of influence, eventuality of alliances to
counterbalance and prevent German dominance of Western Europe, and the improbab
ility of Germany acceding to the UNSC have already been factored in by Indian st
rategic planners.[146][147][148][149][150]
Map of overland route from India to Britain. (Source: "A journey from Merut in I
ndia, to London, through Arabia, Persia, Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Austria, Swit
zerland, and France, during the years 1819 and 1820", Thomas Lumsden 1822.)
Geopolitical map of the Eurasian region
Perpetuation of State borders in the Eurasian continent - which contain several
hotly contested demarcation lines which date back from the European Colonial per
to
iod in Asia: (Nine-dotted line, Sykes Picot Agreement,[151][152] Durand Line, McMa
hon Line, Radcliffe Line); appear increasingly elastic [153][154][155] in the fa
ce of geopolitical, socio-economic and technological transformations.[152][156][
157][158][159][160] Colour revolutions and the Arab Spring have destabilized the
Caucasus and Western Asia respectively setting-off unintended repercussions rig
ht across the Eurasian continent: revival of historic rivalries between Turkey (
Ottoman Empire) & Iran (Persia),[161][162][163] emergence of the Daesh[164] and
a proxy war involving regional and global powers.[165][166][167][168][169][170][
171][171] India has been reluctant to get involved in the Middle-Eastern turmoil
due to ethnic Persianate roots and historic cultural influence of India's 172 m
illion Muslim population (14.2% of the country's population according to the 201
1 census).[172][173][174] The Government of India has prohibited Indian national
s from traveling to Syria & Iraq and issued directives allowing police to detain
persons suspected of having served as mercenaries.[175][176]
Dr.Manmohan Singh, India's former Prime Minister, observed that the concurrent g
eopolitical re-emergence of China and India has initiated a period of "cooperati
on and competition" in the Indo-Pacific region: "it is an era of transition and
consolidation. Inclusive economic growth remains the bedrock of our country's fu
ture. Infrastructure, education, development of skills, universal access to heal
thcare must be at the core of our national policies. Being a strong and diversif
ied economy will provide the basis for India playing a more important global rol
e. Hence the primary focus of India's foreign policy has to remain in the realm
of economic diplomacy,". Commenting on the ongoing turmoils in Ukraine, West Asi
a and North Africa, Dr.Singh observed: "Competing and conflicting interests amon
g Western and regional powers have led these countries to support rebel groups i
n countries like Iraq and Syria. These rebel groups have joined hands with extre
mist Jihadist groups to create the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Chaos and ci
vil war have been the bitter harvest of the flawed policies of regime change in
Arab countries, leading to unprecedented violence and human suffering, forcing A
rab and Afghan refugees to flee in hundreds of thousands to Europe. The impact o
f these developments on a weak European economy will only add to the doubts abou
t sustained economic recovery in the EU,".[177]
The primacy of Western-led post-World War II supranational institutions and Bret
ton Woods system in shaping the outcomes of Asian affairs is no longer a given.[
178] Asian countries having not forgotten their colonial past and bitter lessons
learnt from the 1997 Asian financial crisis, are unwilling to negotiate with ex
ternal powers on matters affecting state sovereignty. The BRICS are committed to
building a multipolar world order and have agreed to coordination on core inter
ests of individual members.[179][180][181][182][183][184] Western sanctions agai
nst Russia prompted China to conclude a $400 billion energy accord,[185] effecti
vely neutralizing efforts to drain Russian finances.[186][187][188][189] BRICS a
re wooing investors with the allure of best potential for economic growth.[190]
Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), North South Transport Corridor, Asian
Highway Network, New Eurasian Land Bridge and Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) has
received increased attention at Track-2 initiatives of the RIC (Russia, India &
China) countries.[191][192]
Muscle flexing by China on the Sino-Indian Line of Actual Control (LAC)[193] aga
inst the backdrop of prominent displays of military might (live test of an ASAT
weapon in 2007 by China in response to a 1985 satellite-kill by the USA) and cha
llenges (the Hainan Island incident where the President of the USA was forced to
apologise to China to ensure the safe return of the crew of a US Navy intellige
nce gathering aircraft which was intercepted by PLAN fighter planes) has rekindl
ed an arms race in the Asia-Pacific region.[194]
India has staked a claim to playing a central role in the Asian Century [195][19
6][197][198] by embarking upon a programme to modernise and diversify assets of
the Strategic Forces Command, raise the profile of the Andamans and Nicobar Comm
and (ANC), build strategic petroleum reserves, and renew civilizational ties wit
h regional countries. India has prioritized the strengthening of strategic partn
erships - with Russia, Vietnam, Japan, Singapore & Iran - in order to offset and
forestall an irrecoverable shift in strategic balance of power in Asia emanatin
g from a resurgent China seeking to advance its One Belt, One Road initiative.[1
99][200][201] Agreements to install ocean surveillance capabilities in Madagasca
r, Fiji, Seychelles (Assumption Island),[202] Mauritius (Agalga) & Maldives seeks
to shelter India's strategic interests and diaspora.[203][204][205][206][207] I
ndia's national security planners have sought to consolidate India's presence an
d extend influence in countries which are key to China's One Road, One Belt with
special focus on Oman, Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan,
Uzbekistan, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Vietnam. India has increa
sed security dialogues and military exercises with Japan, Australia and USA whil
e concurrently undertaking confidence building measures with China with the aim
of maintaining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.[208][209][210][21
1][212][213][214][215]
The tendency of Indians to get either enraged or swooned by lofty rhetoric when
it comes to China prompted Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of
Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, to advise unwavering att
ention to the improvement of societal aspirations and caution against over-reach
: "it is in India's interest to bide its time, remain calm, not get distracted
by geopolitics and instead focus on core strengths. India has the advantage, eve
n on China, because of a young population. Put aside the border for now, engage
China, take advantage of their competencies".[216] Speaking out against a distor
ted portrayal of China in the Western media, Chandran Nair of South China Mornin
g Post deplored journalism which betrayed deep-rooted ideological biases.[217] H
is view are echoed by Singapore's Foreign Minister K. Shanmugam, who during the
2014 Hong Kong protests said: "There has been much anti-China bias in Western me
dia's reporting".[218]
Jaguar Cars on display at 2012 Delhi Auto Expo. Jaguar Cars was acquired by Indi
an conglomerate Tata Motors to rapidly enter the global mid-size luxury/executiv
e car market.
The scale and speed of economic development in the Asia-Pacific region,[219][220
] in both absolute and relative terms,[221] has profoundly shaken public self-co
nfidence in Western countries[222][223][224] and stunned observers.[225][226] In
2014, Asia-Pacific (+29%) accumulated wealth faster than Europe (+6.6%) and Nor
th America (+5.6%). However, America leads in absolute numbers with $370,000 (in
cluding life and pension assets) per household and Europe follows with $220,000.
[227] US sub-prime credit default related to student debt and auto loans stands
unresolved and has been flagged as a significant bubble risk.[228][229]
The merging of an "economic Asia" - wherein corporations are easily wooed with t
he pan-Asian win-win logic of cooperation and integration - and a "security Asia
" structured upon delicately balanced zero-sum reasoning of competition and disi
ntegration; has presented unique scenario for the future according to Evan Feige
nbaum and Robert Manningan: "economic Asia" could become "an engine of global gr
owth", while "security Asia" could, in the worst-case scenario, lead to great po
wer war.[230] Recent developments indicate that while India and China are increa
singly competing on geopolitical matters, the two countries are simultaneously w
illing to bridge differences and cooperate on trade.[231][232][233][234]
North South Transport Corridor (NSTC) showing terrestrial and maritime trade route
s
Historic terrestrial and maritime trade routes of Asia
China-India driven economic growth, fresh opportunities to develop new geographi
cal zones due to improved Sino-Indian relations,[235] observed collateral conseq
uences on local populations & economies caused by recent US-led military interve
ntions in Iraq & Afghanistan, conspicuous absence of the US President at the APE
C Indonesia 2013 summit due to the United States federal government shutdown of
2013,[236][237][238] budgetary constraints of the US military,[239] improvements
in anti-access area denial (A2/AD) capabilities by littoral States to counter m
aritime power projection assets,[240] limitations in the US air-sea battle doctr
ine,[241] risks of conflict escalation,[242] historic intra-regional rivalries,[
243][244][245][246] the fact that post-WWII American interventions in major conf
licts in Asia have not been victorious (stalemate in the Korean peninsula, Vietn
am debacle, ineffectual US-led COIN operations in Afghanistan) and the unconvinc
ing US pivot to Asia, dissolved the appetite amongst Asian countries to support
a US-led China containment policy.[247][248][249][250][251][252][253][254] US ec
onomic, political and military dominance is in relative decline compared to emer
ging powers.[255][256][257] Asian countries increasingly view the US primarily a
s a market for manufactured goods and as a highly capable provider of security i
nfrastructure.[258][259][260]
Geopolitical map of the Heartland theory from Halford Mackinder's 1904 The Geogr
aphical Pivot of History
Geopolitical re-balancing by regional powers has allowed several Asian microstat
es and LDCs to extract significant economic advantages and concessions while sta
ying on the sidelines of regional power-play.[261][262][263][264][265][266] Prim
e Minister of Singapore, Lee Hsien Loong, had a word of caution regarding strate
gic hedging in the regional power-play and pointed to Singapore's proximity to I
ndia and China: "Singapore knows it's place in the world".[267]
Asia's emerging economies have enthusiastically embraced clever, innovative, fru
gal and shrewd market-access strategies to face-up to global competition.[268] T
he 2015-2016 Indian budget foresees co-development of manufacturing hubs in Sout
heast Asian countries.[269] In March 2015, foreign minister Sushma Swaraj announ
ced that India's 2015 target for trade with ASEAN is $100 billion and both sides
are aiming to double it to $200 billion by 2022.[270] India has accelerated ini
tiatives to resolve insurgency in Northeast India[271] to promote economic devel
opment within the Seven Sister States.[272][273]
The improvement and optimization of inter-Asian trade through future mega infras
tructure projects, like the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Economic Corri
dor and Thai Kra Isthmus Canal,[274] are increasing seen as viable and vital to
the continuation of economic integration of regional markets.[275][276][277][278
][279][280] In May 2014,[281] India announced prioritization of Asian Highway Ne
twork regional cross-border connectivity programmes like the Kaladan Multi-modal
Transit Transport Project with Myanmar and the Trilateral India-Myanmar-Thailan
d Friendship Highway to Thailand.[282][283][284] Bangladesh and Myanmar, both fa
st emerging as nodal road and rail connectivity transit routes, have received sp
ecial attention in India's foreign and trade development policies.[285]
Heads of State and Government from BRICS nations join hands to express cooperati
on and solidarity ahead of the 2014 G-20 summit in Brisbane, Australia.
Inadequate representation in global security and governance architectures and th
e tendency of the G7 to pre-emptively set the agenda for the G20[286][287][288][
289][290] has led India to complement traditional international forums such as t
he United Nations Security Council, World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF
), World Trade Organization (WTO) and Asian Development Bank (ADB) with special
interest groupings such as BRIC/BRICS, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO),
East Asia Summit (EAS), Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical an
d Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Indian-Ocean Rim Association (IORA), Regional
Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD), Bang
ladesh China India Myanmar Forum for Regional Cooperation (BCIM), Mekong Ganga Cooperati
on (MGC) and South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC).[291][292]
India aspires to an incontournable role in the Asian pivot to Asia.[293][294][29
5] Between 2004 and 2014 Western think-tanks, especially in the US and UK, faile
vided superconducting dipole and quadrupole magnets for the Large Hadron Collide
r (LHC) at CERN Meyrin site. The world s largest magnet, weighing about 50,000 ton
s, is being designed at BARC and will be part of the CERN Iron Calorimetric (ICA
L) detector for trapping atmospheric neutrinos produced by cosmic rays in Earth s
atmosphere.[4]
India is participating in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (
ITER) project by providing one-tenth of the components for gigantesque nuclear f
acility at Cadarache in France.[5] ITER-India, a specially empowered group withi
n the Institute for Plasma Research is overseeing the in-kind commitments from I
ndia to ITER
Uses of Monte Carlo methods require large amounts of random numbers, and it was
their use that spurred the development of pseudorandom number generators, which
were far quicker to use than the tables of random numbers which had been previou
sly used for statistical sampling.