Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Analysts briefing
London, 27 November 2014
Agenda
23
2013
Legal
framework
2014
2015
2016
Adoption by
EU Parliament
and EU Council
22 May
EU Journal
Adoption
by EP and
EU Council
Application
of Solvency II
Interim
phase
Omnibus II
Major policy issues resolved in final agreement in 2013
Long-term guarantee measures
Yield-curve adjustments
Goal
To avoid artificial volatility
of technical provisions
Volatility adjustment1
To mitigate the effect of
exaggerated bond spreads to
prevent pro-cyclical investment
behaviour
Matching adjustment1
(Re-)insurers should not be
exposed to the risk of changing
spreads (not caused by changes
in credit risk or any other risk) on
those assets in a portfolio where
asset and liability cash flows are
closely matched
Omnibus II (Level 1)
Agreement
by EU
Commission
Adoption by EU
Parliament and
EU Council
22 May
EU Journal
Equivalence
Transitional measures
Goal
To permit a smooth transition to
Solvency II
Risk-free interest rates
Linear transition from Solvency I
interest rate to Solvency II risk-free
interest rates by 1 January 2032
Technical provisions
Linear transition from technical
provisions based on Solvency I to
technical provisions based on
Solvency II by 1 January 2032
Applicable to contracts concluded
before 2016
Public disclosure of financial
position without transitionals
Goal
To encourage international
convergence towards riskbased solvency regimes
Provisional equivalence
Allowance for related thirdcountry (re-)insurers:
10 years (can be renewed
for further 10 years)
Temporary equivalence
Allowance for reinsurance
or group supervision of
(re-)insurers with thirdcountry head office:
5 years (+ max. 1 year)
Long-term-guarantee measures
Designed to dampen volatility of technical provisions
Illustration of long-term-guarantee measures
Omnibus II (Level 1)
Agreement
by EU
Commission
Adoption by EU
Parliament and
EU Council
22 May
EU Journal
Adjustments
bps1
Extrapolation
Rel. risk-free interest rates (+VA) extrapolated to ultimate
forward rate (UFR) starting from last liquid point (LLP)
2011
2012
2013
25
20
10
80
40
20
Euro (current
expectation)
LLP
20 years
Convergence
40 years
UFR
4.2%
End of year.
Adoption
by EP and EU
Council
Further delay in Solvency II unlikely after timely publication of the Delegated Acts
even though EU Council and Parliament have a right of veto
Solvency II Analysts briefing
IAIS
International
Association
of Insurance
Supervisors
Agenda
Current implementation readiness for Solvency II (European Solvency II Survey 2014 conducted by EY1)
3.2 3.3
2012
2013
2.7 2.9
1.8 1.9
Pillar 1
Pillar 2
Pillar 3
Scandinavia
CEE
Poland
Greece
Portugal
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
Italy
France
Germany
UK
Already compliant
In the course of 2016
Nearly 80% of European insurers expect to fully meet the Solvency II requirements
by January 2016
1
See European Solvency II Survey 2014 by EY (Pan-European survey with more than 170 insurers
participating to assess the implementation readiness for Solvency II conducted in autumn 2013).
10
2 Competitiveness
Excellence in enterprise risk
management fosters
competitive advantage
especially for large and welldiversified groups
Increased pressure on smaller,
less diversified players
Higher capital requirements
and transparency on
profitability may drive
consolidation and increase
in reinsurance demand
High cost of compliance
raising barriers to entry
3 Transparency
Enhanced comparability
between insurance
companies across different
business models and
countries
Predefined reporting
templates should ensure
market-wide consistency
Fostering a paradigm change
towards economic valuation
and management concepts
Increased interaction with
supervisors
Diversification and flexible product design are key to fully exploiting Solvency II
competitive advantages
1
11
Example
German primary life insurance business
Example
Multi-year property and casualty business
Solvency II gives incentive to diversify insurance portfolios that are less dependent
on long-term effects
Solvency II Analysts briefing
12
%
Fixed
income
65
Equity
10
Real
estate
20
Equity risk
Cash
5
22
46
Equity risk
75
Property risk
Spread risk
Spread risk
Market risk
Fixed
income
80
Equity
10
Property risk
Diversification
Real
estate
5
After reallocation
30
121
m
27
46
19
10
28
Diversification
Market risk
74
Highlights
Exposure to real assets hardly linked
to insurance liabilities, resulting in
high capital charges2
Capital charges for infrastructure and
ABS revised in October 2014
Reallocation of real estate to fixed
income leading to significant reduction
in market risk usually improving
economic solvency ratio
However, before any reallocation, the
impact on diversification and potential
decline of investment returns should
be considered
In this example, the expected excess
return of the initial asset allocation
must be ~140bps to achieve the same
return on risk capital
This example is based on a real case of a European primary insurer with approx. 1.5bn total investments.
Risk capital charge for equities (39% / 49% adjustment), real estate (25%), charge < 20% for investment grade
corporate bonds with a duration < 10 years.
13
Duration mismatch
6.0
3.0
years
85%
Asset
duration
Liability
duration
6.0
35%
0.5
years
65%
Asset
duration
Highlights
Liability
duration
14
Capital
strength
Reinsurer's
portfolio
Capital relief
70
Gross
130
Before risk
transfer
RISK TRANSFORMATION
Net
60
After risk
transfer
Capital
requirement
Number of reinsurers
#1
#2
#3
#4
#5
AA
19
16
15
14
14
42
35
32
31
30
BBB
92
77
71
68
66
BB
340
284
263
252
245
625
523
483
462
448
AAA
15
IFRS
Rating agencies
German GAAP
Relevance
Economic financial
International
strength and business accounting
management
principles
Credit rating
Ultimate source
of capital
repatriation
Valuation
principle
Comprehensive
economic valuation of
assets and liabilities
Assets:
market values;
liabilities: largely
undiscounted
Factor-based
Mix between IFRS
and Solvency II with
some adjustments
Assets: lower of
cost or market;
liabilities: largely
undiscounted
Impact of
rising
interest
rates on
capital
position
Decrease in
shareholders
equity driven by
decreasing
market values of
fixed-income
assets
Decrease in rating
capital while M-factor1
adjusting capital
requirements to
improving Solvency II
capital; haircut on
MCEV uplift
Decrease if
market values
of fixed-income
assets fall below
historical costs
16
Excess
of assets
over
liabilities
Subordinated
liabilities
Basic
own
funds
(BOF)
Own
funds:
BOF
and
ancillary
own
funds1
Tier 3
Available
own
funds
Assets
in SII
economic
balance
sheet
Liabilities
in SII
economic
balance
sheet
Information
Deductions2
Tier 2
Tier 1
SCR
MCR
Reconciliation
Economic
solvency ratio
(ESR)
=
Solvency capital
requirement (SCR)
Transitional reconciliation of
currently reported Available
Financial Resources (AFR)
and Basic Own Funds (BOF)
Drivers for change in BOF are
analysed within Profit and
Loss attribution (PLA)
Off-balance sheet items that can be called up to absorb losses, e.g. letter of credit subject to supervisory approval.
E.g. dividends and distributions, own shares, ring fenced funds etc. 3 Eligible own funds covering SCR consist of Tier 1,
and limited amount of Tier 2 and Tier 3 items.
17
bn
AFR
31.12.2012
36.5
Own funds
ECR
31.12.201531.12.2015
Capital
management1
2.5
Capital
Capital
management
management
Expected Operating economic earnings: Expected
Total economic
return on
new business value, experience variances
earnings
existing
Economic
earnings
4.2
Operating
Operating Economic effects: Capital market changes
economic economic
earnings
AFR
31.12.2013
38.2
Own funds
ECR
31.12.201631.12.2016
Mainly dividends (1.3bn), share buy-back (0.3bn) and change in hybrid capital (1.1bn).
Final metric to be discussed.
18
Solvency II1
Ratio as at
31.12.13
MRCM2
ESR1
Insufficient capitalisation
ESR (SII)1 less than MCR
(25%45% of SCR)
Obligation to submit a shortterm realistic finance scheme
Regulator may restrict or
prohibit the free disposal
of insurer's assets
Ultimate supervisory
intervention: withdrawal
of authorisation
153
Interest rate
+100bps
Solvency I
solvency ratio
200%
180%
115%
Actual
solvency ratio
140%
100%
80%
170
Interest rate
100bps
132
Spread
+100bps
133
Equity
markets +30%
Equity
markets 30%
159
147
100%
151
FX 10%
MCR3
Atlantic
Hurricane2
145
Economic solvency ratios are likely to show high volatility under Solvency II,
particularly due to the mark-to-market valuation
1
3
Economic solvency ratio (SII): Based on VaR 99.5%. 2 Economic solvency ratio (MRCM): Based on 1.75*VaR 99.5%.
Minimum capital requirement (MCR).
19
Non-EEA reinsurer
ceding
business
to
20
EEA subsidiary
writing
business
within
21
Non-EEA subsidiary
writing
business
via
Group solvency
capital is based on
consolidated accounts
The group solvency
calculation of the
subsidiary is based
on Solvency II
22
Agenda
23
Pillar 2 (governance)
Pillar 3 (disclosure)
Implementation of Pillar 3
requirements at an
advanced stage
Dry run for Solvency II
balance sheet
successfully completed
based on FY 2013 figures
Late publication of final
quantitative reporting
requirements (QRTs) by
EIOPA is a challenge
24
Impact (expected)
Contract boundaries
Surplus funds
Mandatory adjustments of current risk-free interest rates to
Solvency II risk-free interest rates (extrapolation and CRA)
Long-term-guarantee measures (volatility and matching adjustment)
Further adjustments (tax, other liability items, )
Solvency II basic own funds (BOF)
Shift from available financial resources to basic own funds will have an impact,
but overall no major effects on capital position expected1
1
Regulatory practice may lead to certain modifications during the first years of application.
25
26
Group solvency capital calculated with the internal model covering all entities in
Munich Re Group
Solvency II Analysts briefing
27
Standard formula
developed for primary
insurers in EEA
Munich Re intends to
apply the standard
formula at legal entity
level if the calibration fits
the portfolio of the entity
(e.g. ERGO Leben,
Victoria Leben, ERGO
Previdenza)
The internal model
reflects the reinsurance
specifics and is applied
for all reinsurance
entities (e.g. MR AG,
Munich Re of Malta,
Great Lakes UK)
Solo solvency capital based on standard formula for specific EEA primary legal
entities Solvency capital of reinsurance legal entities based on internal model
1
28
Yield
New product
Classic products
Security
Flexibility
Annual premium equivalent (APE), only third-layer private provision (ungefrderte Rentenprodukte) and tied agent organisations.
29
Paradigm shift
Reinsurance benefits
Enables clients to
30
Solvency
capital
requirement
Liabilities
Adjustments
Gross
Net
Gross
Net
Market
risk
Basic solvency
capital
requirement
Underwriting
risks1
Operational
risk
Counterparty
default risk
Intangible
assets risk
Own funds
Risk margin
Best estimate of liabilities
Effects
Reinsurance reduces the risk margin substantially technical provisions include not only the best
estimate, but also the risk margin, which acts as a loading for non-hedgeable risks
Counterparty default risk increases as a result of the risk of unexpected default by the reinsurer
but is more than compensated by a significant reduction in underwriting risk
In general, market risk will decrease due to reinsurance premium payment and reinsurance recoverable
showing similar interest rate sensitivity to the original liability
31
Risk ceded
42
18
Risk ceded
33
36
100
36
72
31
65
Div
NL
20
63
40
MTPL MOD
Fire NL Cat
Div
NL
11
MTPL MOD
18
32
Fire NL Cat
Div
NL
10
MTPL MOD
18
Fire NL Cat
Basic SCR
m
26
18
113
100
23
17
72
NL
1
Market Default
Div
BSCR
NL
21
84
16
77
65
Market Default
Div
BSCR
NL
Market Default
Div
BSCR
32
Capital relief
While for long-tail business it takes some time to fully exploit the reinsurance relief, an immediate effect is
visible for short-tail business
The longer the duration of business, the later reserve risk will be relieved
Reinsurance solutions that cover reserves from old underwriting years (e.g. LPT/ADC) lead to an
immediate reserve (risk) relief
Quota share has an immediate and full effect on premium risk, while the relief generated for reserve risk
follows later
Solvency capital requirements
Reinsurance has a positive effect on
underwriting risk:
market risk:
35m
5m
Reinsurance leads to a significant reduction in SCR unfolding its full potential after
some years
Solvency II Analysts briefing
33
Deal motivation
Munich Re solution
Austria
Bridge
the gap
Norway
Partnership
wins
Slovenia
Trust
enables
France
Fire
brigade
Cyprus
Timely
intervention
Spain
Pre-funding of investments in
Unlock
sales channel additional sales channels
Canada
Quick
recovery
34
RISA+
A standard model for non-life insurers
Comparison of Solvency I and Solvency II ratios at companies analysed1
Solvency II ratio
Main findings
500%
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
Solvency I ratio
More than a quarter of the companies analysed would have had a solvency problem
(SCR <100%) on conversion to Solvency II (standard formula)
1
In cooperation with our clients, over 60 analyses were carried out up to March 2014.
35
ILLUSTRATION
Higher
Asset
protection
Nat cat
protection
Lower
Disability
LPT covers
Lapse
Quota
share
Mortality
Service-oriented
Life business
Largest potential for products covering
market risk
Underwriting risks less important and
generally written in connection with services
Risk-transfer-oriented
Non-life business
Largest potential for nat cat, retrospective
covers and quota share treaties depending on
client risk profile
Standard formula favours proportional treaties
36
83
74
17
26
2013
2014
37
Key take-aways
Solvency II
is setting new
standards in
the risk-based
supervision
of insurers
Capitalisation
of Munich Re
remains very
strong under
Solvency II
Limitations
of Solvency II
Calibration may lead to pro-cyclical decisions (e.g. investments at end of credit cycle)
Assumptions may lead to concentration risk, e.g. nil credit risk charge on sovereign
bonds for member states in standard formula
Reporting may not provide expected insight and comparability because of underlying
valuation models and assumptions
Solvency II Analysts briefing
38
Financial calendar
2015
5 February
11 March
23 April
7 May
30 June
6 August
5 November
39
Thorsten Dzuba
Christine Franziszi
Britta Hamberger
Ralf Kleinschroth
Andreas Silberhorn
Angelika Rings
Andreas Hoffmann
Ingrid Grunwald
Mnchener Rckversicherungs-Gesellschaft | Investor & Rating Agency Relations | Kniginstrae 107 | 80802 Mnchen, Germany
Fax: +49 (89) 3891-9888 | E-mail: IR@munichre.com | Internet: www.munichre.com
40
Disclaimer
This presentation contains forward-looking statements that are based on current assumptions
and forecasts of the management of Munich Re. Known and unknown risks, uncertainties and
other factors could lead to material differences between the forward-looking statements given
here and the actual development, in particular the results, financial situation and performance
of our Company. The Company assumes no liability to update these forward-looking
statements or to conform them to future events or developments.
Figures up to 2010 are shown on a partly consolidated basis.
"Partly consolidated" means before elimination of intra-Group transactions across segments.
41