Topic

3
C ONSTANT F AILURE
R ATE M ODELS

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

3.1

Exponential Reliability Function

3.2

Failure Modes

3.3

Poisson Process

3.4

Redundancy

Constant Failure Rate Models

3.1

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Exponential Reliability Function

A failure distribution that has a constant failure rate (CFR) is called an

exponential probability distribution.

It is one of the most common failure distributions in reliability engineering

that is referred to the exponential, or CFR, model.

It should dominate during the useful life of a system or a component.

! Refer to the bathtub curve.

Assuming that (t) = , t 0, > 0, from Eq. 1.14:

t
R (t ) = exp $& (t") dt"') = e t ,
% 0
(

t0

(3.1)

and,
F (t ) = 1 e t
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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Then

f (t ) =

dR (t )
= e t
dt

From these relations:

t

MTTF = e
0

e t
dt =

=
0

"
1%
1
2 = 0 $ t ' e t dt = 2
# &

(3.2)
(3.3)

Hence, the standard deviation is 1/ = MTTF.

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

F(t)

1.2

0.25

1.0

2.5

5.0

1.0
0.8
0.6

R(t)

1.2

0.25

1.0

2.5

0.4

5.0

0.2

1.0

0.8

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

0.6

f(t)

0.4

6.0

0.2

0.25

1.0

2.5

5.0

5.0

0
0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0

0
0

0.5

1.5

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

For a given reliability R:

R ( t R ) = e t R = R

Then,
When R = 0.5,

(3.4)

t R = tmed

(3.5)

The CFR model is memoryless, i.e.,

o
o

1
t R = ln R

It is not dependent on how long the component has been operating,

There is no aging and wear-out effect.

In other words, a burn-in period has no subsequent effect on reliability and

will not improve the components reliability.

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.1:
A microwave transmitter has exhibited a constant failure rate of
0.00034 failure per operating hour. Calculate:
(a)
(b)
(c)
(d)

MTTF,
median of the distribution,
reliability over 30 days of continuous operation,
design life for a reliability of 0.95.

Find (a) MTTF; (b) tmed; (c) R(3024 hr); (d) t0.95.
(Ans: 2941 hr; 2039 hr; 0.7829; 150.9 hr)

Constant Failure Rate Models

3.2

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Failure Modes

Complex systems will fail through various causes, which can be

categorised based on failure modes.

If Ri(t) is the reliability function for the ith failure mode, then, assuming
independence among the failure modes, the system reliability is
n

R (t ) = Ri (t )

(3.6)

i=1

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Let i(t) be the failure rate function for the ith failure mode. Then,
t
Ri (t ) = exp $& i (t") dt"')
% 0
(

and

t
R (t ) = exp $& i (t") dt"')
% 0
(
i=1

% t n
(
= exp ' i (t") dt"*
& 0 i=1
)
t
= exp %' (t") dt"(*
& 0
)
n

where

(t ) = i (t )

(3.7)

i=1

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

For the CFR model, if a system consists of n independent, serially related

components each having a constant failure rate i, then
n

(t ) = = i
i=1
t
R (t ) = exp $& dt"') = e t
% 0
(

and
where

MTTF =

1
1
1
= n
= n

i 1 MTTFi
i=1

MTTFi =

1
i

(3.8)

i=1

If the components are also all identical, i.e., i = 1 for i = 1, 2, , n, then

= n1

and

MTTFi =

1
n1

(3.10)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.2:
An aircraft engine consists of three modules having constant
failure rate of 1 = 0.002, 2 = 0.015 and 3 = 0.0025 failure per
operating hour. Calculate the corresponding MTTF.
(Ans: 51.28 hr)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Certain components that operate on a cyclical basis may fail on demand.

Hence, the failure rate in failures per clock unit of time is

eff =
where

I
O
p
tI
tO

=
=
=
=
=

tI
t
p
I + O O +
t I + tO
t I + tO
t I + tO

(3.10)

the average failure rate while idle;

the average failure rate while operating;
the probability of failure on demand;
average length of the idle time period per cycle;
average length of the operating time per cycle.

A renewal process, in which a failed component is immediately replaced

with a new one, will cause the system to reach a steady CFR state.

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.3:
An air conditioning compressor operates once for an average time
of 20 minutes each hour. While operating, it has experienced a
failure rate of 0.01 failure per operating hour, and while idle has
experienced a dormant failure date of 0.0002 failure per idle hour.
The probability that the compressor fails on demand is 0.03.
Calculate the probability that the compressor will not fail over a
24-hour period.
Find eff. Then, find R(24).
(Ans: 0.9092)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

If a failure will never occur prior to some specified time t0, then t0 is a
minimum or threshold time, also known as the guaranteed lifetime. Hence,

f (t ) =

dR (t )
tt
= e ( 0 ) ,
dt

R (t ) = e

(tt0 )

0 < t0 t <

t > t0

(3.11)
(3.12)

From Eq. 3.11 and Eq. 3.12, the failure rate is still , but the mean of the
distribution has shifted to a distance t0. Hence,

MTTF =

t0

te

R (tmed ) = e
tmed = t0 +

(tt0 )

dt = t0 +

(tmed t0 )

ln 0.5
,

= 0.5

t R = t0 +

(3.13)
(3.14)

ln R

(3.15)
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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.4:
Let = 0.001 and t0 = 200. Calculate the MTTR, tmed, t0.95 and .
(Ans: 1200; 893.15; 251.3; 1000)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

3.3

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Poisson Process

If a component having a constant failure rate is immediately repaired or

replaced upon failing, the number of failures observed over a time period t
has a Poisson distribution.

The probability of observing n failures in time t is given by the Poisson

probability mass function pn(t):

e t ( t )
pn (t ) =
n!

n = 0, 1, 2,

(3.16)

The Poisson process is often used in inventory analysis to determine the

number of spare components when the time between failures is
exponential.

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

If S spare components are available to support a continuous operation over

a time period t, then the cumulative probability of S or fewer failures
occurring during time t is
S

RS (t ) = pn (t )

(3.17)

n=0

17

Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.5:
A specially designed welding machine has a non-repairable motor
with a constant failure rate of 0.05 failures per year. The company
has purchased two spare motors. If the design life of the welding
machine is 10 years, what is the probability that the two spares
will be adequate?
Find Pr{X 2} for = 0.05.
(Ans: 0.9856)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

3.4

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Redundancy
Consider the case of two independent and redundant components each
having the same constant failure rate , where the system failure will occur
only when both components have failed.
t
Since the probability that both components will fail by time t is (1 e )
(see Topic 5), the system reliability is given by,

RS (t ) = 1 (1 e t )

= 1 (1 2e t + e2 t )

RS (t ) = 2e t e2 t

(3.18)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Thus, the hazard rate in this case is (which is not constant),

fS (t ) 2 e t 2 e2 t
S ( t ) =
=
RS (t )
2e t e2 t

S ( t ) =

(1 e t )

(3.19)

1 12 e t

The system MTTF can be determined as follows,

MTTFS =

RS (t ) dt =

(2e

MTTFS =

e2 t ) dt =

1.5

2 1
3

=
2 2
(3.20)

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Constant Failure Rate Models

KKKP6324 Quality Systems and Reliability

Example 3.6:
For the microwave transmitter described in Example 3.1, a
second redundant transmitter is added. Calculate:
(a)
(b)
(c)

MTTF,
reliability over 30 days of continuous operation,
design life for a reliability of 0.95.

Derive for the system RS(t). Then, find (a) MTTFS;

(b) RS(3024 hr); (c) t0.95.
(Ans: 4412 hr; 0.9529; 744.4 hr)

21