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a Debt Strategy in Pakistan
By:
Jaffer Askari
Economist (DPCO)
Overview
Introduction
Structure and Dynamics of Debt in Pakistan
Pakistan’s Debt Strategy
Debt Process
Characteristics of Debt Strategy
Challenges and Future Prospects
Conclusion
Introduction
Sound debt management practices ensure that the level and rate of
growth of public debt do not unduly limit the country’s monetary,
fiscal or exchange rate flexibility, or leave the country seriously
exposed to changing financial market conditions.
Debt policy is a dynamic financing policy that has to react to
implementation of various public policies and actual performance of
the economy.
Debt policy will not drive public policy but will respond to it and act as
a constraint to public policy (over) ambitions
Improving the quality of debt management can achieve only so much;
ultimately, fiscal policy determines the borrowing requirements and is
the main influence on the stock of debt over time.
Prudent debt management strategy, along with sound macroeconomic
and structural adjustment policies, is essential for containing the impact
of financial markets shocks.
Strong interdependence among debt management policy, fiscal policy,
monetary policy and daily cash flow management;
Government debt management generally operates more efficiently if
responsibility for decision making and implementation is not spread
across several government departments i.e.
¾ Daily cash management;
¾ domestic borrowing;
¾ Guarantees;
¾ donor finance;
¾ market related foreign currency borrowing and
¾ Borrowing from multilateral development banks.
Policy Objective
External Debt & Liabilities US$ 52.8 billion
Domestic Debt 29.5 % of GDP.
Pakistan’s Debt Strategy
Debt management in Pakistan is governed by guidelines
provided in the “Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act,
2005.”
FRDL Act sets specific targets and goals for current and future
levels of debt.
The route to achieving these targets is up to debt managers
and policymakers.
Features of the FRDL Act 2005
Eliminate Revenue Deficit by June 2008
Public Debt to GDP should be 60% by June 2013 and reduce
by 2.5% every year for 10 years starting 2003 provided 4.5%
minimum expense on poverty and social sector while
education and health allocation to double during next 10
years.
Issuance of Guarantees of all kinds should be maximum 2% of
GDP every year including renewals.
Features of the FRDL Act 2005
In case of failure to comply with any of these provisions, the
Minister shall specify the reasons for the departure and
recommend measures to return to those principles as well as
a time frame.
Economic Policy Statement: (a) Medium Term Budgetary
Statement‐3 years, (b) Fiscal Policy and (c) Debt Policy
statements.
Debt Process
DEBT PROCESS
Multiple authorities involved in process
Ministry of Finance
DPCO
Budget Wing
External Finance Wing
Central Directorate of National Savings
State Bank of Pakistan
Economic Affairs Division
State Bank of Ministry of Economic Affairs
Pakistan Finance Division
* Domestic Debt * Negotiation, Signing,
* Exchange Rate Disbursement & Repayment
* Servicing of Foreign Debt of Foreign Debt
Debt Process
Identification of Borrowing Requirement
Fiscal Data, External Account Data, Annual Borrowing
Requirement
Identification of Borrowing Sources
Domestic Sources (Bank, Non‐bank), External Financing
Issuance/Signing/Contracting of Debt
Repayments and Servicing
Debt Process
Risk Management and Analysis
Interest Rate Risk
Currency Exposure
Maturity Profile
Macroeconomic Shocks
Ensure Debt Sustainability and Budget Solvency.
Characteristics of Debt Strategy
Current Debt Strategy Includes:
Limit on borrowing from State Bank
Stand By Arrangement, IMF
Long‐Term Concessional External Borrowing
Currency Composition
Capitalize on low international interest rate environment
Accessing International Markets
Reform of CDNS
Development of Domestic Markets
Challenges and Future Prospects
Challenges
Low Tax‐to‐GDP places greater emphasis on debt
creation.
Lack of long‐term investment avenue in domestic
markets.
Cost of domestic non‐bank borrowing.
Reliance on foreign currency debt.
Challenges
Number of bodies/departments involved in debt
process/policy
Data transmission
Strengthening of DPCO
Future Prospects
Debt origination process and data may be centralized;
Decision on auction targets, cut‐offs and rates on NSS may be centralized
and should be aligned with banking sector liquidity, monetary and other
macroeconomic variables;
CDNS may be restructured and converted into a vibrant customer centric
distribution channel for government debt instruments. Transfer pricing
mechanism may be introduced to induce efficiency;
Reduce the number of saving schemes to generic products;
A secondary market for NSS may be developed to ensure long term
liquidity to the government;
Development of vibrant secondary market for government securities and
revamping of Primary Dealership operations.
Performance benchmarks for debt management.
Delegate Parliament
Authority Accountability
Set Long‐term
Objectives
Finance
Decision
Strategy
Minister Consultation
DMC
Total Public Debt, FY05‐FY09
as % of GDP
62.5
58.4 58.0
57.2
55.2
Currency Composition of Public and
Publically Guaranteed External Debt
5% 13%
28% Euro
29% Japanese Yen
Special Drawing Right
25% United States Dollar
Others
Outstanding Domestic Debt, FY05-FY09 (in billions of Rs.)
Permanent Debt
Market Loans
Government Bond
Domestic Debt FY05
526.3
2.9
9.5
FY06
514.9
2.9
9.6
FY07
562.7
2.9
9.6
FY08
616.8
2.9
9.3
FY09
686.0
2.9
7.8
Prize Bonds 162.2 165.5 174.5 182.8 197.4
Foreign Exchange Bearer Certificates 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0
Bearer National Fund Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Federal Investment Bonds 14.5 6.6 3.1 0.9 0.9
Special National Fund Bonds 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Foreign Currency Bearer Certificates 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
U.S. Dollar Bearer Certificates 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0
Special U.S. Dollar Bonds 25.1 14.8 9.4 8.2 7.7
Government Bonds Issued to SLIC 3.6 1.5 0.6 0.6 0.6
Pakistan Investment Bonds (PIB) 307.6 303.8 352.5 411.6 440.9
Government Bonds issued to HBL 0.0 9.8 9.8 0.0 0.0
GOP Ijara Sukuk 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.8