Probabilistic Seismic

Hazard Analysis
Problem

Hazard Analysis

Definitions:

Hazard anticipated ground motion at site

Risk damage or losses to society
Probabilisitic considers uncertainty in input parameters (e.g.,
magnitude, ground motion)
Uncertainty aleatory (random), epistemic (variability in mean
values for different models
Deterministic considers average level for scenario
Hazard level probability level used for building design
Disaggregation magnitude and distance that contribute most
Magnitude-frequency distribution sizes and rate of
earthquakes
Time-dependence probability increases with time since last
earthquake

Normal Distribution

Area under curve is

probability

1.8 m

Ex. Height: median = 1.8m

sd=0.1m

1.9 m

1.7 m

-2 sd
Normal distribution

-1 sd

median

+1 sd

+2 sd

68%
100%

Cumulative Normal distribution at one standard deviation

16%

84%

Cumulative Normal distribution at two standard deviations

2%

98%

Lognormal
Distribution
HOWEVER GROUND MOTION FOLLOWS A LOGNORMAL DISTRIBUTION
Standard deviation is
factor of two
mode
mean
median
0.2 g

0.4g

Pga
Add 0.7 to ln(median)
to get the +1sd

-2 sd
-3.0
ln (0.05g)

-1 sd
-2.3
ln(0.1g)

median
-1.6
ln(0.2g)

+1 sd
-0.9
ln(0.4g)

+2 sd
-0.2
ln(0.8g)

Pga

Seismic hazard analysis has two

model components:
(1) Earthquake-Rupture
Forecast (ERF)
Probability of all possible
fault-rupture events (M~5)
for region & time span

(2) Intensity-Measure
Relationship (IMR)
Gives Prob(IMTIML) for a given
site and fault-rupture event

Attenuation Relationships
(traditional)
(no physics)

Full-Waveform
Modeling
(developmental)
(more physics)

ui = ij, j + fi

ij = ijpp + 2ij

PROBABILISTIC SEISMIC HAZARD METHODOLOGY

M7.6 every 250yrs250yrs- 0.004 event/yr
r1
d1
d4
r2

d2

San

M7.6

fa
reas
And

d3

high seismicity
zone

ult

r3

Ground motion

M 7.6
distance

Hazard curve

annual rate of
exceeding pga

Earthquake Sources

peak ground acceleration

0.25g

0.5g

peak ground acceleration (pga)

To calculate the hazard curve (annual rate of exceeding ground motions) we:
1. Determine magnitude, and distance, and rate of earthquake
2. Calculate ground motion distribution for that m and d.
3. Calculate the product:
annual rate of earthquake *probability that earthquake will exceed certain ground motion level

4. Sum these rates for all earthquakes in the model at each ground motion to get
a hazard curve. This curve shows the rate of exceedance of each ground motion.

Probabilistic Seismic Hazard

Annual rate of exceedance for a given ground motion, z
N

mu r =

E ( z ) = i
i =1

f ( m ) f ( r ) P ( Z > z | m, r ) dmdr
i

mo r = 0

Sources (already discussed)

Normal distribution
Lognormal distribution
Multiplying source rates and probability of exceeding
ground motion level
Adding exceedances for a ground motion level to get total
hazard curve
Applying Poisson relation to get 10% probability of
exceedance in 50 years

Fault 1
M 6.5, 15 km
Recurrence: 50 years
Annual rate: 0.02

Example 1

Earthquake
source

Ground
motion

15 km

M 6.5, 15 km

frequency

0.2 g
median

PGA

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.05 g pga given M 6.5 earthquake occurs?
M 6.5, 15 km

2%
frequency

98%

0.1
0.05 g

0.2

0.3

0.4

PGA

median

Almost all earthquakes (98%) of M 6.5 at a distance

of 15 km will cause ground motion that will exceed
0.05g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance and simplify for a single source,
distance and magnitude:

E ( z ) = P ( Z > z | m, r )

E ( 0.05) = 0.02*0.98 = 0.02

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g
0.02

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.2 g pga given M 6.5 earthquake occurs?
M 6.5, 15 km

50%
frequency

50%

0.1
0.05 g

0.2

0.3

0.4

PGA

median

50% of earthquakes of M 6.5 at a distance of 15 km

will cause ground motion that will exceed 0.2g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance and simplify for a single source,
distance and magnitude:

E ( z ) = P ( Z > z | m, r )

E ( 0.2 ) = 0.02*0.50 = 0.01

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g
0.02

0.2g
0.01

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.4 g pga given M 6.5 earthquake occurs?
M 6.5, 15 km

84%
frequency

16%

0.1
0.05 g

0.2

0.3

0.4

PGA

median

16% of earthquakes of M 6.5 at a distance of 15 km

will cause ground motion that will exceed 0.4g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance and simplify for a single source,
distance and magnitude:

E ( z ) = P ( Z > z | m, r )

E ( 0.4 ) = 0.02*0.16 = 0.003

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g
0.02

0.2g 0.4g
0.01 0.003

Hazard Curve

Annual rate ground motion is

exceeded

Ground motion:
Rate of Ground motion exceedance:

0.05g
0.02

0.2g
0.01

0.4g
0.003

0.1

0.01

0.001

10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

0.1 g

0.2 g

0.3 g

PGA

0.4 g

0.5 g

Example 2

Earthquake
sources

15 km

20 km

Fault 1
M 6.5, 15 km
Recurrence: 50 years
Annual rate: 0.02

Fault 2
M 7.9, 20 km
Recurrence: 250 years
Annual Rate: 0.004

Ground
motion

frequency

M 7.9, 20 km

0.4 g
median

PGA

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.05 g pga given M 6.5 and M 7.9
earthquakes occur?
M 7.9, 20 km

0.1%
frequency

99.9%

0.2
0.05 g

0.4

0.6

0.8

PGA

median

Almost all earthquakes (99.9%) of M 7.9 at a

distance of 20 km will cause ground motion that
will exceed 0.05g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance and simplify for a single source,
distance and
2 magnitude:

E ( z ) = i P ( Z > z | m, r )
i =1

E ( 0.05) = 0.02*0.98 + 0.004*0.999 = 0.024

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g
0.024

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.2 g pga given M 6.5 and M 7.9 earthquake
occur?
M 7.9, 20 km
16%
84%

frequency

0.2
0.05 g

0.4

0.6

0.8

PGA

median

84% of M 7.9 at a distance of 20 km will cause

ground motion that will exceed 0.2g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance:
2

E ( z ) = i P ( Z > z | m, r )
i =1

E ( 0.2 ) = 0.02*0.50 + 0.004*0.84 = 0.013

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g 0.2g
0.024 0.013

Annual Rate of Exceedance

What is the annual rate that ground motion will

exceed 0.4 g pga given M 6.5 and M 7.9 earthquake
occur?
M 7.9, 20 km
50%
50%

frequency

0.2
0.05 g

0.4

0.6

0.8

PGA

median

50% of M 7.9 at a distance of 20 km will cause

ground motion that will exceed 0.4g.

Annual Rate of Exceedance

Recall the equation for the annual rate of

exceedance:
2

E ( z ) = i P ( Z > z | m, r )
i =1

E ( 0.2 ) = 0.02*0.16 + 0.004*0.50 = 0.005

Ground motion:
Rate of 0.05 g exceedance:

0.05g 0.2g 0.4g

0.024 0.013 0.005

Hazard Curve

Annual Rate ground motion is

exceeded

Ground motion:
Fault 1:
Fault 2:
Rate of Ground motion exceedance:

0.05g
0.02
0.004
0.024

0.2g
0.01
0.003
0.013

0.4g
0.003
0.002
0.005

0.01

0.001

10% probability of exceedance in 50 years

0.1 g

0.2 g

0.3 g

PGA

0.4 g

0.5 g

HAZARD PRODUCTS

http://eqhazmaps.usgs.gov
Deaggregations

2002 Hazard Maps - PGA-rock

2% probability of exceedance in 50-years

Purple-0.3g and greater

Yellow -0.1g and greater