Doomsday Model of Economic Growth

Back in the 1970s, an elite group of scientists, researchers and consultants had researched and
debated about the future growth of the world economy, using computer models developed at
MIT.
The models assumed no major change in the physical, economic, or social relationships that
governed the civilization for the last 100 years. As the world population grew exponentially
from 1900 to the middle of the 21st Century, the growth trends in industrial output, food
production, pollution and resource depletion would also increase correspondingly. There
would be a time lag among the peaks of these trends. The industrial output, food production
and resource depletion would come to their peaks first, and later the pollution, and then
finally the population, as shown in the figure.

One research model concluded (Meadows)

"If the present growth trends in world population, industrialization, pollution, food
production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet
will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be
a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity."
Other models with more optimistic assumptions also ended with a similarly dismal

conclusion The exponential growth of population and capital would be followed by

collapse. If the depletion of natural resources did not bring about collapse, then famine and
pollution would. The elite group proposed zero growth of population and economy ( a state of
stagnation) to achieve equilibrium to halt the catastrophic collision course with production
limits imposed by natural resources and the pollution-absorbing capacity of the environment.
The opponents to the Doomsday Models, however, pointed out that our economy would :
1. Efficiently and effectively to apply existing knowledge in production.
2. To make progress in technologies to increase the supply of natural resources:
3. To expand the output production levels obtainable from the limited resources by using new
materials.
4. To generate new knowledge from existing knowledge.
5. To adapt to changes in the environment and the economy.

Comments
Looking back to the past 50 years, the predictions by the Doomsday Models seems to be
basically fitting the reality. The industrial output is still expanding especially for the
developing countries, such as China, India and Brazil; however, the GDP growth for western
countries is now stalling and short of capital after a severe financial crises in 2008. There are
no global famine as biotechnical progress and industrialization in agriculture have provided
higher yields, although the capital countries from Middle East and Asia are yearning for
agricultural lands in Africa. Pollution (air and land) are improving in developed countries, but
the qualities of sea water are now deteriorating rapidly. Resources in minerals, energy and
renewable natural stocks with the exception of fresh water are still keeping up with the
demands due to new explorations and extraction techniques by resource industries and the
recycling efforts and more efficient usage of resources.
The world population is still growing remarkably - 4.5 billion in 1980, 5.3 billion in 1990, 6
billion in 1999. According to US Census Bureau, the world has more than 7.056895 billions
of people on January 1, 2013. Thus, one has to be an optimist to brave the future and hopes
the changes in growth trends, the developments in technological progress and the social
behaviours will fend off challenges in the world.