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Economic and Financial Feasibility Study for Capacity

Augmentation of Pune - Shirur (SH-60)
A. Mohan Rao1, and S.Vel murugan2
1

Senior Scientist, CSIR - Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi - 25.
Email: amrao_crri@yahoo.co.in

Senior Principal Scientist and Head, Traffic Eng ineering and Safety Div ision,
CSIR - Central Road Research Institute, New Delh i - 25.
E-mail: vms_04@yahooc.o.in; vms.crri@nic.in

Abstract

Maharashtra Public Works, Pune Region had felt the need to conduct a scientific study aimed at the
conduct of economic and financial evaluation for State Highway - 60 (SH-60) towards capacity augmentation as the
traffic load is gradually increasing gradually due to the intense development along the corridor. This paper presents
the details of the Classified Traffic Vo lu me Count (CVC) conducted at strategic locations on the study corridor,
Origin - Destination studies, speed characteristics assessment, estimat ion of base year through traffic, growth rates
and future traffic forecasts till the 20 year analysis period i.e. 2032. Thereafter, Four Technically Feasible
Alternatives were considered while carrying out the economic analysis. This analysis was accompl ished by
comparing with the Base Case i.e Business As Usual (BAU) Alternative for the road corridor using Highway
Design and Maintenance-IV (Version 2.0). Further, sensitivity analysis was carried out under the assumption for the
conceived alternatives that if the traffic forecast envisaged is lesser by 20% fro m the estimated value. Based on the
above exhaustive Economic Viability analysis carried out using the HDM -IV Software, it emerged that the Alt - 1 is
yielding the EIRR of 47.7 % and FIRR of 13 % and this is followed by Alt - 2 yielding EIRR of 36.2 % whereas
the FIRR for A lt -2 is 12%. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the Maharashtra Public Works, Pune Reg ion
should consider the imp lementation of Alt-1 and the second best alternative is Alt-2 for the purpose of capacity
augmentation of SH-60.
Key words: Economic analysis, financial analysis, Economic Internal Rate of Return, HDM-IV

1. Background
On inter-urban highways, the capacity augmentation infrastructure projects such as roads is normally
considered with the aim to provide seamless travel for the through traffic without entailing traffic congestion. For
this purpose, it is essential to formu late the technically feasible alternatives considering the site conditions , travel
characteristics and formu lating imp lementable alternates thereafter, the chosen alternatives need to be subjected to
economic evaluation and subsequently, the alternatives yielding the tangible Econo mic Internal Rate of Return
(EIRR) can be subjected to financial evaluation. In th is regard, Maharashtra Public Works, Pune Region had felt the
need to conduct a scientific study aimed at assessing the need for capacity augmentation of State Highway - 60 (SH60) starting fro m Km 10/ 600 to Km 64/000 spanning over 54 km. This highway starts in the Pune district connecting
the city of Pune and Ahmednagar. At present, this stretch is a four lane div ided carriageway up to Sh irur passing
through several small townships like Wagholi, Koregaon, Bhima, Shikrapur and Ranajangaon containing a lot of
fertile agricu ltural belt as well. Despite this, the traffic load on this stretch is increasing gradually due to intense
development along the entire corridor warranting the expansion.
2. Literature review
It is impo rtant to identify the type of economic impact when perfo rming an economic analysis of road
projects. Types of impacts vary with project to project, as per Transportation Research Board (TRB) has provided a

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standard classification system of three types of economic impacts: (1) generative, (2) red istributive, and (3) financial
transfer impacts. To evaluate these impacts, there are two basic types of economic impact analysis are there (1)
predictive and (2) evaluative. These two basic types of analysis can be disaggregated into numerous methods for
analyzing economic impacts of transportation projects. These methods include case studies, computer models, inputoutput models, statistical and non-statistical co mparisons, surveys, cost/benefit analysis, and others. It is important
to identify the correct method and procedure to avoid bias and obtain correct results. Increasingly computer models
are being used to provide results for government agencies. Although these programs can provide useful results for
decision makers, the accuracy of these results depends greatly on the dependability of the data and the ability of the
modeler to manipulate the program to correct ly represent specific situation(s)(G. Weisbrod, 2006). Evaluating the
economic impacts of a transportation project will allow agencies to better maximize the benefit to users and the
overall economy (G.G.Schultz , 2006, 2010). The literature rev iew also indicated that although there are many
deferent variables that are influenced by transportation projects, there are a few that are more impo rtant to the public
and government agencies. In the present study two variables were identified as key indicators for how transportation
project affects the economy. These include (1) Vehicle Operation Cost (VOC) and (2) Vehicle Operating Time
(VOT). These two indicators include factors that are most impo rtant to both the public and govern ment agencies.
These variables are estimated using software tool i.e. HDM -IV in the present study.
3. Study Area
Pune is one of the major metropolitan cities situated in the state of Maharashtra housing a population of
94,26,959 (Census, 2011), making it the fourth most populous district in India. SH-60 o rig inates in the Pune d istrict
connecting the city of Pune and Ahmednagar. It is a four lane divided carriageway passing through several small
townships like Wagholi, Koregaon, Bhima, Shikrapur, Ranajangaon and Shirur containing a lot of fertile agricultural
belt as well. Moreover, this stretch acts as a conduit connecting Mumbai Industrial Co rridor (MIDC) area with Pune
- Sanaswadi - Ranjangaon stretch, Pune Airport at Lohegaon and the vital part of Dighi - Pune - Indore section of the
Delh i - DM IC. More importantly, it also acts as a feeder fo r the international exh ibition centre located at Moshi and
Pilgrim towns of Alandi and Dehu. The study corridor is shown in figure I.
4. Objecti ves and scope of the study
The objectives and scope of the study are presented as under:

Assessment of the traffic and travel characteristics of the study corridor and estimation of future traffic for the
period of 20 years.
To evolve the technically feasible alternatives aimed at effecting capacity augmentation of the study section
considering the projected horizon year traffic.
Economic v iability analysis of the feasible alternatives using the HDM-IV software
Conduct of the sensitivity analysis for the economic analysis scenarios accounting for unforeseen uncertainties.
The scope of the study encompassed the conduct of classified traffic volu me count surveys at selected
locations on the study corridor and Origin - Destination (OD) survey at one location, sped and delay survey and
conduct the economic analysis.

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Figure I Typical Illustration of the Study Corridor Alignment

5. Study area profile

Keeping in tune with the development trends on most of the national and state highways in the state of
Maharashtra, the study corridor is studded with lot of ribbon development on the entire stretch. It was noted there is
large number of new huge housing infrastructure projects emerged right after the Right of Way (RoW) on many
locations aggravating the traffic congestion problems. Moreover, t he study corridor also acts as a conduit for the
traffic emerg ing fro m couple of state highways namely, SH-55, SH-58 and couple of Major District Roads (MDR)
which is providing connectivity to NH-9 (p resently renamed as NH-65). Further, the study corridor is studded with
many industrial establishments. One of the majo r bottleneck on the study corridor is the two lane bi-directional
bridge across the river Bh ima creat ing the funnel effect for the traffic emerging fro m the four - lane div ided
carriageway wh ich needs immediate attention.
6. Study methodol ogy
In order to accomp lish the study objectives in a scientific manner, the methodology detailed in figure II has
been employed.
7. Traffic studies
Midblock traffic surveys were carried out at strategic locations aimed at capturing quantum of traffic on the
study corridor. In addit ion, the turning movement survey was also carried out on the major intersections on the study
corridor so as to understand the quantum of t raffic generated fro m the majo r intersecting roads to the study corridor.
The Origin - Destination (O-D) survey was conducted at Perne Toll Plaza for one full day (i.e. 24 hours) coupled
with the enu merat ion of the traffic volu me counts to arrive at the expansion factor for each vehicle type. Spot speed
survey was carried out on the study corridor using laser speed gun with the aim to capture spot speed of varying
vehicle types on sampling basis. Speed and delay survey was conducted by emp loying moving car observer method
on the entire study section covering both directions of travel separat ely.

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Reconnaissance survey

TRAFFIC & TRAVEL

CHARACTERISTICS
Traffic esti mates
Vehicular s peeds
Es timati on of del ay
Es timati on of through traffic

Formul ation alternati ves

for aug mentati on

Maps & reports

Study initiation

FIELD STUDIES
Traffic vol ume counts
Origin Destination survey
Speed and delay study
Spot s peed studies

Traffic analysis &

estimates

Economic anal ysis

using HDM-4

Study of vehicul ar
growth

Analysis of alternati ves

Conclusions & Recommendations

Figure II: Study Methodology

8. Data analysis
A brief description of the traffic characteristic on the study corridor is exp lained below
8.1 Hourly variation and composition of traffic at mid block sections

The observed daily traffic volu me at Perne to ll plaza in the Pune to Sh irur direction is 18788 vehicles amounting
to 22018 PCUs whereas in the case of Shirur to Pune direction, the total volume is observed to be 15179
amounting to 19169 PCUs.

The peak hour traffic observed at Perne Pune to Shirur direct ion is between 15:00 to 16:00 hours catering to
about 1508 vehicles (1616 PCUs) whereas in the case of Shirur to Pune direct ion it is between 18:00 to 19:00
hours catering to about 1190 vehicles (1460 PCUs).

Big car and small car together account for 35.5% fo llo wed by 32.4% of t wo wheelers in the Pune to Shiru r
direction and similarly in the opposite direction, 38.3% of b ig and small cars followed by 24.5% of two wheelers
(figure III). This is due to the lot of real estate development along the road section generating the sizable
proportion of personalized passenger vehicles destined for work purpose trips to Pune city during the morning
hours and returning back fro m Pune in the wee hours of the day.

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The overall share of the goods vehicles (contributed by LCV + 2 / 3 A xle Truck + MA V) is about 13.1% (7.4 +
4.2 + 1.5) in both directions of travel and buses and minibuses together constitute about 10.3 % (8.3+2.0) in Pune
to Shirur d irection whereas in the case of Shiru r to Pune direct ion it is found to be 14. 5% (12.1 + 2.4).

LCV MAV
7.4% 1.5%
Truck
4.2%

Tata Magic Buses

6.3%
6.1%

MAV
2.1%
Truck
4.6%

Small Cars
22.4%

2-Wh
32.4%

Tractors
0.4%
Three
wheelers
2.2%
Mini Bus
4.0%

Buses
7.1%

Shirur - Pune

Small Cars
19.4%
Big Cars
18.9%

Big Cars
13.1%

Pune - Shirur

Tata Magic
6.1%

2-Wh
24.5%
LCV
6.4%

Mini Bus
7.3%

Three
wheelers
3.0%

Figure III: Traffic Composition on Study Corridor

8.2 Traffic and composition of traffic at major intersections

To understand the quantum and type of t raffic entering onto the project corridor, the turning movement
survey was carried out on major intersecting roads with study corridor wh ich included locations like Thyru Patak,
Alindi Markal Patak and Shikrapur intersections. The total turning volume handled at Theyur Patak during the 16 hour period is 5700 PCUs, wh ich is do minated by 20% goods traffic and 35 % two wheelers. At the same time, the
total turning volume at Matkal Alindhi Patak is 8000 PCUs during the 16 - hour period which is again do minated by
goods vehicles accounting for 25% followed by cars accounting for 25% .The other major intersection namely
Chakan Road accounted for 20,000 PCUs overall turning flows during the 16 hour period wherein the two wheelers
accounted for 40 % share fo llo wed by goods vehicles accounting for 24% and the cars constitute 20 %.
8.3 Spot Speed Survey
Spot speed survey was carried out on the study corridor using laser speed gun for 16 hours at six locations
in tandem with the classified traffic volu me count.
15th percentile speed which is the minimu m speed: In the case of small cars, is vary ing fro m 40 to 62 kmph
whereas in the case of b ig cars, it is varying fro m 48 to 52 kmph and in the case of two wheelers, it is varying fro m
32 to 42 kmph.
85 th percentile which is the operating speed: In the case of small cars, it is hovering between 74 to 92 kmph
whereas in the case of big cars, it is varying between 76 to 86 kmph. Moreover, it was noted that based on the
summary of the 85th percentile speed observed at Sriganesha dhaba, most of the vehicle types are exceeding the
posted speed limit of 80 kmph at this location, which is a serious cause of concern warranting the deployment o f
urgent safety measures in the form of enforcement and speed arrester to avoid road c rashes.
8.4 Speed and Delay Survey
To understand the speed profile on the study corridor, speed and delay studies were conducted using Global
Positioning System (GPS) covering different time periods of the day. A close look at the figure IV reveals that the

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variation in the speed are substantial in the v icin ity of the urban settlement causing delays to the motorized t raffic
and such stopped delays are noted in both directions of travel at Sanaswadi uncontrolled intersection, Perne toll
plaza ( for plaza payment) and at Wagholi due to the weekly markets being in place on the roadside causing delays.
120

Delay (Sec.)

100
80
60

3 PM-4:30 PM
6 PM-7 PM

Large delays
observed at
uncontrolled
intersection near
Sanaswadi

6:30 PM-7:30 PM

40
20
0

Control Points
Figure IV Typical Delays Observed in Pune to Shirur Direction

Based on the above analysis, it can be inferred that the average journey speed on the study corridor in the
Pune to Shirur direction is 54 km/h r whereas in the Shirur to Pune direction it is observed to be 64 km/hr. The
journey speed from Lonikhand to Shikrapur section is lo w, whereas between Shikrapur to Shirur the speed is higher
side.
8.5 Origin -Destination Survey
Origin - Destination (O - D) survey conducted amongst the vehicle users helped in determining the trip
characteristics details including their orig in and destination from each of the traffic zones. Roadside interview
method was adopted for this study. O - D survey was conducted at Perne toll plaza deploying stratified rando m
sampling basis for 24 hours in tandem with the conduct of classified traffic volu me count during the same duration.
In this regard, entire country was divided into 22 traffic zones for the formu lation of Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ)
and analysis of O - D data, out of the 22 zones identified in the study, 15 zones fall in the Pune district (figure V)
whereas five zones fall in the Maharashtra state and the remain ing two zones fall outside the state. Interviews of all
type of vehicle users were done on a random stratified sampling basis wherein 4.41% of the passenger vehicles and
17.59% o f the goods vehicles were interviewed.

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Figure V : Spread of Traffic Zoning System Evolved for Pune District and Maharashtra State

8.6 Traffic dispersal across internal and external zones

O-D matrix explains the intensity of traffic emanating fro m various traffic zones and the traffic mov ing
across various zones using the study corridor. Basically, the traffic zones fro m 1 to 4 adjacent falls in the immediate
vicinity of the study corridor and eventually, the traffic interaction occurring amongst these zones have been
categorized as internal traffic zones and the remaining traffic zone interaction are categorized as external t raffic
zones during the O - D analysis. It was evident fro m th is analysis that the influence of internal zones is quite
dominant on the Project Influence Area (PIA) as the internal traffic flo w pattern was found to be 50.04 %, where as
the external - external traffic accounting for 49.96 %.
8.7 Trip length on the study corridor
The study corridor is serving share of around 42% of the trips having the trip length of less than 50 km and
this is even less than the length of the study corridor. Similarly in the case of goods vehicles, the long distance trips
of greater than 200 km lead distance is around 40 %, whereas the long distance commutes of mo re than 200 km
made by the passenger vehicles is around 20 %. The distribution pattern of the varying trip length covered by the
goods and passenger vehicles travelling on the study corridor are presented in figure VI.
Passenger Vehicles

60

50
40
30
20
10
0

Percentage

Percentage

Goods Vehicles

0-50

50-100

100-200

Distance (km)

200 & above

40
20
0
0-50

50-100

100-200

Above 200

Distance (km)

Figure VI: Trip Lengths on the Study Corridor

Having analyzed the traffic flo w and speed characteristics on the study corridor, the succeeding section
focuses on the estimation of base year traffic with the specific focus on the estimation of through traffic presently
using the entire length of the study corridor.

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9. Es timati on of base year traffic

Base year traffic flow for the year 2013 is estimated based on the CVC conducted at various locations for
16 hours on the study corridor (figure VII). The fact that the entire traffic entering the study corridor at Lonikhand
(i.e. start of the study) is not using the corridor t ill Sh irur and some of the traffic is getting dissipated in between on
to the various MDR / SHs crossing the study corridor like at Chakan road and at Shikrapur town. The estimated base
year traffic on the corridor is 29488 vehicles (35239 PCUs) with the cars accounting for major share of 39.4 %
followed by two wheelers for 26.3 % and this is follo wed by goods vehicles accounting for 15.38 %.
Pune to Shirur Direction

Shirur to Pune Direction

16000

16000

14000

Number of Vehicles

Number of Vehicles

14000

12000

12000

10000

10000
8000

8000

6000

6000

4000

4000

2000

2000

Figure VII: Estimated Traffic at Various Entry Points to the study Corridor

10. Es timati on of traffic growth rate and horizon year traffic

Traffic g rowth estimation on any road corridor due to the proposed development along the corridor coupled
with the development in the adjoining reg ions over the analysis period of the study is an important component. As
such, this is an important aspect in the technical and economic feasib ility of the study alternatives. The methods
attempted in this study are historical time series trend, vehicle registration based analysis and econometric models as
mentioned in Indian Road Standards (IRC-108, 1977). The estimated traffic has been appropriately deployed during
the economic analysis performed for the study corridor using the HDM-IV So ftware. The details of the economic
analysis performed using HDM-IV is presented in the succeeding section.
11. Economic anal ysis
HDM -4 can be used for pro ject analysis which evaluates road project or investment options for planning by
associating costs and benefits, the application analyzes indiv idual sections with user-selected maintenance and
determines economic indicators for different investment options (for present study augmentation options). It
provides a detailed economic appraisal of each option by considering pavement structure performance, life -cycle
predictions of road deterioration and maintenance effects, road -user costs and benefits, and economic co mparisons
of project alternatives (Jianhua Li et al., 2004).
11.1 Formulation of study alternatives
Technically feasible engineering alternatives were fo rmulated after carefully study from literature and
discussed with the imp lementing engineers for feasibility for imp lementation , these alternates considered for
economic v iability analysis. and these alternatives are listed in table I.
Table I Feasible Engineering Alternatives Conceived for the Study Corridor

Alternative (Alt)
Identification
Base Case
Alt-1

Brief on the Alternative

Base Case: Business as usual - existing road with routine maintenance
Elevated Road: Elevated road (four lane divided) up to Shikrapur and lane addition on either
side with paved shoulder (1.5 m) from Shikrapur to Shirur

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Alt-2

Alt-3
Alt-4

Partly Elevated Road Section: elevated up to Markal Patak and from Bhima river to
Shikrapur with flyover at Ranjangaon village, six lane with ha rd shoulder 1.5 m width from
Markal Patak to Bhima river and six laning with hard shoulder 1.5 m width from Shikrapu r to
Shirur)
Elevated Entire Section i.e. from Lonikhand i.e. sta rt of section to Shirur bypass i.e end of the
section
Six laning of the entire study corridor

11.2 Cross Section Details

The elevated road section is proposed to be of four lane divided carriageway with 1.2 m median width,
whereas for the at-grade alternatives namely, the provision of six lane with paved shoulder of 1.5 m width. The
Right of Way (RoW) required for the conceived alternatives is 26.2m. The average cost towards land acquisition is
taken as per the latest (2013) revenue records based on the land use. The cost considered as Rs. 11,000/- (in the case
of open area) and Rs. 35,000/- (in the case of built up area) per square meter.
11.3 Costs and Scheduling
Any study alternative shall consist of two main co mponents namely cap ital costs, maintenance costs and
the same are discussed in the succeeding section for different alternatives. The capital cost considered for the
alternatives included the land acquisition costs as well. The summary of the costs are given in table II.

Table II: Summary of the Estimated Cost for Different Alternatives (Rs. in Crore)

S.
No.
1
2
3
4

Brief description of each alternative

Alt-1: Elevated up to Shikrapur
Alt- 2: Part ly elevated
Alt-3: Entire study corridor elevated
Alt-4: Entire study corridor six lane
section - at grade

Construction cost of
elevated alternatives

Cost of six
lane section

Land
acquisition
cost

Total cost

1462.00

259.39

81.20

1802.59

1602.96

247.07

163.17

2013.20

80.47

3297.20

125.90

596.02

3216.73
N.A.

470.11

11.4 Inputs to the economic analysis

In this analysis, a design life span of 20 years is taken for perfo rming economic analysis considering the
fact that it is proposed to provide access controlled facility type for the majority of the length on the study corridor
and the salvage value is considered as 10%. Further, the discount rate is assumed as 12 % whereas the construction
period is taken as three years fro m the start of the analysis year. The Value of Time (VOT) and value of goods in
transit (i.e. co mmodity value) have been taken fro m IRC: SP-30 (2009) after updating the values to the current
prices.
11.5 Discussion on the economic analysis
As mentioned earlier, the various input values evolved above have been used in the HDM -IV (Version 2.0)

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software for the economic evaluation of the alternatives formu lated in this study. HDM 4 is an analytical tool for
engineering and economic assessment of road investments and maintenance alternatives. The software works on
physical and econo mic relationships derived fro m extensive research conducted on road deterioration. It models the
effects of maintenance activities and Vehicle Operation Costs (VOC) and Time Costs.
The results of the economic analysis performed for the various alternatives are presented in table III. It is
evident fro m table III that all the four alternatives were evaluated against the BAU with value o f t ime (VOT) shows
that the alternative 1 to 3 are econo mically v iable whereas the alternative 1 is yield ing high internal rate of return.
The Alt-4 yielding the FIRR and negative EIRR, this is due to high traffic is flying on the road and the capital cost
is low than other alternates which is yielding mo re FIRR but this alternate is have lower EIRR, hence this alternate
is not worth for implementation.
Table III presents the EIRR values evolved for various alternatives with and without considering the
value of time (VOT).
Table III: Summary of the Economic Analysis

S.No.
1
2
3
4

Alternatives

EIRR with VOT (in %)

EIRR without VOT (in %)

FIRR (in %)

Comparison of Alternatives with Business As Usual (BAU) Alternative

Alt-1
47.7
39.1
13%
Alt-2
36.2
27.8
12%
Alt-3
15.1
11.1
7%
Alt-4
- 8.5
NA
23%

Sensitivity analysis also carried out under the assumption that if the traffic forecast envisaged is less by
20% fro m the estimated value and the construction cost is increased by 10% which revealed that the Alt -1 (36.8%)
and Alt - 2 (27.8%) are feasib le alternatives fro m economic angle. Therefore, both these alternatives have been
subjected to financial evaluation considering the fact that the study corridor is envisaged to be developed under
Build Operate and Transfer (BOT) concept by the Maharashtra PWD.
11.6 Financial evaluation of alternatives
As mentioned earlier, the above selected alternatives were subjected to financial evaluation. The financial
analysis is carried out by considering the funding mechanism of govern ment, construction period, interests and
inflation in to consideration. Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) is calculated for each alternative. The FIRR
for each alternative is also presented in table III which indicates the FIRR derived fo r the two alternatives namely
Alt 1 and Alt - 2.
12. Conclusion
Based on the above exhaustive economic v iability analysis carried out using the HDM-IV Software, it
emerged that the Alt - 1 is y ield ing the EIRR of 47.7 % and FIRR of 13 % and this is fo llo wed by Alt - 2 y ield ing
EIRR of 36.2 % whereas the FIRR fo r Alt -2 is 12%. Therefore, it is strongly recommended that the Maharashtra
Public Works, Pune Region should consider the imp lementation of A lt -1 and the second best alternative is Alt-2 for
the purpose of capacity augmentation of SH-60.
Acknowledgement
The authors wish to thank Public Works Region Pune division for sponsoring the project, the field staff
helped in co llect ing the data. The authors also wish to thank Dr. S Gangopadhyay, Director, Central Road Research
Institute (CRRI), New Delhi, India for h is mot ivation, guidance, suggestions and kind approval to publish this paper.

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