Anderson Robbins Research (D) / Shaw & Company Research (R)

Interviews Conducted:
January 4-7, 2016

All results are for release after 6:00PM/ET Friday, January 8, 2016.

NEW HAMPSHIRE
The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R).
The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers January 4-7, 2016 among a random
state sample of 800 likely New Hampshire primary voters. Results based on the full sample have
a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Results for the 386 likely
Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 5 points and results for the
414 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 points.
Landline (375) and cellphone (425) numbers were randomly selected from a statewide voter file
of registered New Hampshire voters using a probability proportionate to size method. This
simply means that phone numbers are proportionally representative to the number of voters in all
regions across the state of New Hampshire.
An asterisk (*) is used for percentages of less than one-half percent.
A dash (-) represents a value of zero.
Some percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding.

1.

How likely is it that you will vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary scheduled
for February of 2016will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the
primary, probably not vote, or definitely not vote? (IF DEFINITELY OR
PROBABLY) Will you vote in the Democratic or Republican primary?
-----Democrat---------Republican-----

4-7 Jan 2016

2.

TOTAL
48%

Definitely
39

Probably
9

TOTAL
52

Definitely
46

Probably
6

How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested,
very interested, somewhat interested or not at all interested?
-----Interested---------Not Interested-----

4-7 Jan 2016

TOTAL Extremely
88%
52

Very
36

TOTAL
12

Somewhat
11

Not
at all
1

(Dont
know)
-

[Q3-9 IF REPUBLICAN PRIMARY IN Q1, N=414]

3.
Im going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican nomination. If
the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would
you support? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would
you choose?] [RANDOMIZE LIST]
4-7 Jan 16
15-17 Nov 15
N=414
N=353
Donald Trump
33%
27%
Marco Rubio
15
13
Ted Cruz
12
11
Jeb Bush
9
9
John Kasich
7
7
Chris Christie
5
6
Rand Paul
5
3
Ben Carson
4
9
Carly Fiorina
3
3
Mike Huckabee
*
1
Rick Santorum
*
1
Jim Gilmore
*
Lindsey Graham
N/A
1
George Pataki
N/A
*
Bobby Jindal
N/A
(Other)
1
(None of the above)
2
*
(Dont know)
4
7

4.

Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind and
support someone else? [If dont know: re-read question and probe for answer]
Certain to support May change mind
(Dont know)
4-7 Jan 16
56%
43
1
PAST TREND
15-17 Nov 15
44%
55
2

[SKIP AND CODE AS DONT KNOW IF DONT KNOW IN Q3]

5.
And which Republican would be your second choice? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if
you had to decide today, which one would you choose?][ONLY READ LIST IF
REQUESTED. READ IN SAME ORDER AS Q3. DO NOT ACCEPT CHOICE FROM Q3]

Donald Trump
Marco Rubio
Ted Cruz
Jeb Bush
John Kasich
Chris Christie
Rand Paul
Ben Carson
Carly Fiorina
Mike Huckabee
Rick Santorum
Jim Gilmore
(Other)
(None of the above)
(Dont know)
6.-9.

First
choice
33%
15
12
9
7
5
5
4
3
*
*
*
2
4

Second
choice
8%
12
16
10
5
14
4
6
6
1
1
1
4
11

Without
Trump
N/A
19%
24
13
7
9
6
7
4
1
*
*
*
3
6

Without
Rubio
34%
N/A
15
12
8
9
5
5
6
*
*
*
2
5

How would you feel if [NAME] wins the Republican presidential nomination?
-----Satisfied---------Not Satisfied----Somewhat TOTAL Not very

Not
at all

(Dont
know)

TOTAL

Very

Marco Rubio

65%

26

39

31

14

17

Chris Christie

62%

19

43

34

14

20

Ted Cruz

61%

25

36

33

15

18

Donald Trump

59%

32

27

39

12

27

[Q10-12 IF DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY IN Q1, N=386]

10.
Im going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Democratic nomination. If
the Democratic presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would
you support? [IF NOT SURE, ASK: Well, if you had to decide today, which one would
you choose?] [RANDOMIZE LIST]
15-17 Nov 15
4-7 Jan 16
N=386
N=302
Bernie Sanders
50%
45%
Hillary Clinton
37
44
Martin OMalley
3
5
(Other)
2
*
(None of the above)
5
1
(Dont know)
3
5
11.-12. How would you feel if [NAME] wins the Democratic presidential nomination?
-----Satisfied---------Not Satisfied----TOTAL

Very

Bernie Sanders

85%

51

34

13

Hillary Clinton

68%

37

31

30

Not
at all

(Dont
know)

13

17

Somewhat TOTAL Not very

Fox News Poll -- Margin of Error for Subgroups

The Fox News Poll is conducted under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and
Shaw & Company Research (R). The poll was conducted by telephone with live interviewers
January 4-7, 2016 among a random state sample of 800 likely New Hampshire primary voters.
Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage
points. Results for the 386 likely Democratic primary voters have a margin of error of plus or
minus 5 points and results for the 414 likely Republican primary voters have a margin of error of
plus or minus 4.5 points.
Results among the attached subgroups have larger sampling errors:
Overall Primary Voters +/- 3.5%
+/- 6%
Democrats:
+/- 5%
Republicans:
+/- 7%
Independents:
+/- 4.5%
Men:
+/- 5%
Women:
+/- 4%
College Degree:
+/- 5.5%
No College Degree:
+/- 9.5%
Under Age 35:
+/- 6%
Age 35-54:
+/- 4.5%
Age 55+:
+/- 6%
Age 65+:
+/- 7.5%
Income Under $50k:
+/- 4%
Income $50k+:
+/- 5.5%
Liberal:
+/- 4.5%
Conservative:
Republican Primary Voters +/- 4.5%
+/- 5.5%
Republican:
+/- 6%
Men:
+/- 7.5%
Women:
+/- 6%
College Degree:
+/- 7.5%
No College Degree:
+/- 10%
Under 45:
+/- 5%
Age 45+:
+/- 7.5%
Very Conservative:
--+/- 9.5%
White Evangelicals:

Democratic Primary Voters +/- 5%

+/- 6%
Democrat:
+/- 7.5%
Men:
+/- 6.5%
Women:
+/- 6%
College Degree:
+/- 9%
No College Degree:
+/- 9%
Under Age 45:
+/- 6%
Age 45+:
+/- 9.5%
Income Under $50k:
+/- 6.5%
Income $50k+:
--+/- 6%
Liberal:

1. How likely is it that you will vote in the New Hampshire presidential primary scheduled for February of 2016will you definitely vote in the primary, probably vote in the primary, probably not vote, or definitely not
vote?

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
[Not sure]

Definitely vote in
Democratic primary
Probably vote in
Democratic primary
Definitely vote in
Republican primary
Probably vote in
Republican primary
Probably not vote in
primary
Definitely not vote in
primary
[Not sure]

Total
39%

Dem
78%

Rep
8%

Ind
39%

Men
32%

Women
46%

College
Degree
42%

No
Degree
34%

9%

18%

*%

12%

8%

11%

9%

11%

46%

4%

84%

38%

55%

37%

44%

48%

6%

*%

8%

11%

6%

7%

6%

8%

Total
39%

Under
Age 35
48%

35-54
31%

55+
41%

65+
45%

Under
$50k
51%

$50k+
37%

Lib
73%

Cons
13%

9%

18%

7%

6%

6%

16%

7%

16%

3%

46%

29%

54%

46%

42%

27%

51%

7%

77%

6%

5%

8%

6%

6%

7%

6%

4%

6%

2. How interested are you in the 2016 presidential election -- are you extremely interested, very interested,
somewhat interested or not at all interested?

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
[Don't know]

Total
52%
36%
11%
1%
-

Extremely interested
Very interested
Somewhat interested
Not at all interested
[Don't know]

Total
52%
36%
11%
1%
-

Dem
47%
41%
11%
1%
-

Rep
56%
34%
9%
1%
-

Under
Age 35
40%
43%
15%
2%
-

Ind
52%
33%
13%
2%
-

35-54
48%
40%
11%
1%
-

Men
55%
33%
11%
1%
-

Women
49%
39%
11%
2%
-

College
Degree
55%
35%
9%
1%
-

55+
62%
29%
8%
1%
-

65+
57%
33%
9%
1%
-

No
Degree
46%
39%
13%
1%
Under
$50k
45%
39%
14%
2%
-

$50k+
54%
36%
9%
1%
-

Lib
48%
41%
10%
1%
-

Cons
56%
33%
9%
1%
-

3. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Republican
nomination. If the Republican presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would you
support?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
9%
4%
5%
12%
3%
*%
*%
7%
5%
15%
*%
33%
2%
4%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
9%
4%
5%
12%
3%
*%
*%
7%
5%
15%
*%
33%
2%
4%

Rep
10%
4%
5%
12%
3%
*%
5%
3%
17%
*%
34%
1%
5%

Men
8%
2%
4%
14%
3%
*%
1%
9%
4%
15%
33%
2%
6%

Under
Age 45
9%
5%
4%
12%
3%
8%
9%
13%
30%
3%
3%

Women
10%
7%
7%
11%
4%
*%
4%
5%
16%
1%
33%
1%
3%

45+
9%
4%
6%
12%
4%
*%
1%
6%
2%
16%
*%
34%
1%
5%

College
Degree
9%
2%
7%
12%
5%
*%
8%
4%
20%
26%
1%
5%
Very
Cons
2%
6%
2%
23%
4%
1%
*%
2%
2%
13%
40%
5%

No
Degree
9%
7%
3%
13%
1%
1%
1%
4%
5%
8%
1%
44%
2%
4%
White
Evan
9%
10%
5%
19%
3%
1%
1%
4%
10%
32%
1%
5%

4. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] Are you certain to support that person, or do you think you may change your mind
and support someone else?

Certain
May change
[Don't know]

Total
56%
43%
1%

Certain
May change
[Don't know]

Total
56%
43%
1%

Rep
57%
43%
1%

Men
56%
43%
1%

Under
Age 45
48%
52%
1%

Women
56%
42%
2%

45+
60%
38%
1%

College
Degree
53%
46%
1%
Very
Cons
68%
31%
*%

No
Degree
61%
38%
1%
White
Evan
54%
46%
-

5. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] And which Republican would be your second choice?

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
10%
6%
14%
16%
6%
1%
5%
4%
12%
1%
8%
1%
4%
11%

Jeb Bush
Ben Carson
Chris Christie
Ted Cruz
Carly Fiorina
Jim Gilmore
Mike Huckabee
John Kasich
Rand Paul
Marco Rubio
Rick Santorum
Donald Trump
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
10%
6%
14%
16%
6%
1%
5%
4%
12%
1%
8%
1%
4%
11%

Rep
10%
5%
14%
18%
6%
1%
5%
3%
13%
8%
1%
3%
11%

Men
10%
6%
14%
18%
6%
*%
5%
6%
13%
10%
*%
3%
8%

Under
Age 45
14%
7%
14%
13%
5%
2%
3%
7%
9%
2%
8%
1%
4%
10%

Women
10%
7%
13%
14%
7%
1%
6%
2%
11%
3%
6%
1%
5%
15%

45+
8%
6%
13%
18%
7%
6%
3%
14%
1%
8%
1%
3%
12%

College
Degree
12%
6%
15%
13%
8%
1%
6%
4%
13%
1%
5%
1%
3%
13%
Very
Cons
8%
7%
11%
19%
6%
3%
4%
13%
3%
12%
1%
3%
10%

No
Degree
8%
6%
12%
22%
4%
1%
3%
5%
12%
2%
12%
1%
5%
9%
White
Evan
9%
12%
5%
16%
7%
1%
4%
1%
18%
9%
3%
13%

6. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
32%
27%
12%
27%
2%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
32%
27%
12%
27%
2%

Rep
34%
26%
14%
24%
1%

Men
34%
29%
14%
21%
2%

Under
Age 45
29%
24%
11%
33%
3%

Women
31%
24%
10%
34%
2%

45+
34%
28%
13%
24%
1%

College
Degree
27%
23%
14%
35%
1%
Very
Cons
47%
32%
10%
10%
1%

No
Degree
40%
33%
10%
14%
3%
White
Evan
33%
29%
10%
27%
1%

7. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Ted Cruz wins the Republican presidential nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
25%
36%
15%
18%
6%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
25%
36%
15%
18%
6%

Rep
27%
39%
14%
14%
6%

Men
28%
36%
14%
19%
3%

Under
Age 45
26%
31%
14%
19%
9%

Women
22%
35%
17%
17%
9%

45+
25%
38%
16%
17%
4%

College
Degree
23%
34%
16%
22%
5%
Very
Cons
38%
37%
9%
10%
5%

No
Degree
29%
39%
13%
12%
6%
White
Evan
37%
42%
9%
8%
5%

8. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Marco Rubio wins the Republican presidential nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
26%
39%
14%
17%
4%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
26%
39%
14%
17%
4%

Rep
29%
42%
12%
13%
4%

Men
27%
41%
16%
14%
2%

Under
Age 45
28%
33%
13%
19%
8%

Women
25%
37%
10%
22%
6%

45+
25%
42%
14%
16%
2%

College
Degree
31%
37%
14%
16%
2%
Very
Cons
22%
35%
16%
24%
3%

No
Degree
17%
42%
13%
19%
8%
White
Evan
25%
45%
14%
12%
5%

9. [REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Chris Christie wins the Republican presidential nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
19%
43%
14%
20%
4%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
19%
43%
14%
20%
4%

Rep
21%
46%
13%
17%
4%

Men
20%
44%
14%
18%
4%

Under
Age 45
16%
47%
12%
20%
5%

Women
17%
42%
14%
23%
4%

45+
20%
41%
15%
21%
3%

College
Degree
23%
42%
13%
19%
3%
Very
Cons
13%
37%
19%
27%
4%

No
Degree
11%
45%
16%
24%
4%
White
Evan
14%
44%
17%
17%
8%

10. [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS] I'm going to read a list of potential candidates for the 2016 Democratic
nomination. If the Democratic presidential primary were held today, which one of the following would you
support?

Hillary Clinton
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
37%
3%
50%
2%
5%
3%

Hillary Clinton
Martin O'Malley
Bernie Sanders
[Other]
[None of the above]
[Don't know]

Total
37%
3%
50%
2%
5%
3%

Dem
46%
2%
47%
1%
1%
3%

Men
30%
3%
53%
3%
7%
4%

Under
Age 45
31%
1%
55%
3%
8%
3%

Women
41%
4%
48%
1%
5%
2%

College
Degree
35%
3%
50%
3%
6%
2%

45+
42%
5%
46%
2%
3%
2%

Under
$50k
33%
1%
59%
3%
3%
1%

No
Degree
40%
3%
49%
*%
4%
3%

$50k+
39%
4%
47%
1%
7%
3%

Lib
41%
2%
52%
*%
1%
3%

11. [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic presidential
nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
37%
31%
13%
17%
2%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
37%
31%
13%
17%
2%

Dem
46%
33%
12%
7%
1%

Men
29%
29%
17%
22%
3%

Under
Age 45
29%
34%
18%
18%
1%

Women
43%
33%
10%
13%
1%

College
Degree
34%
33%
14%
19%
1%

45+
45%
30%
8%
16%
2%

Under
$50k
36%
28%
17%
17%
1%

No
Degree
45%
29%
10%
13%
3%

$50k+
39%
31%
12%
17%
1%

Lib
42%
35%
14%
8%
1%

12. [DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS] How would you feel if Bernie Sanders wins the Democratic presidential
nomination?

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
51%
34%
5%
8%
2%

Very satisfied
Somewhat satisfied
Not very satisfied
Not at all satisfied
[Don't know]

Total
51%
34%
5%
8%
2%

Dem
54%
37%
4%
4%
2%

Men
54%
31%
5%
8%
2%

Under
Age 45
54%
31%
4%
9%
2%

Women
50%
35%
5%
7%
2%

College
Degree
51%
34%
7%
7%
1%

45+
49%
36%
6%
7%
2%

Under
$50k
49%
30%
6%
10%
6%

No
Degree
53%
32%
1%
9%
5%

$50k+
53%
35%
4%
7%
1%

Lib
56%
33%
4%
3%
3%