Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Stock market
Initial investment Y0, daily return ratio ri, in t-th day, your money is
Yt = Y0r1 . . . rt.
Now if returns ratio ri are i.i.d., with
{
4, w.p. 1/2
ri =
0, w.p. 1/2.
So you think the expected return ratio is Eri = 2,
and then
16
0...
1
n =
Xi EX,
X
n i=1
n
in probability.
n .
3
In distribution if as n
lim Fn F,
n
v
un
u
n
t
Xi
i=1
Geometric mean
n
n
i=1 Xi
arithmetic mean
1
n
i=1 Xi
Examples:
Volume V of a random box, each dimension Xi, V = X1 . . . Xn
Stock return Yt = Y0r1 . . . rt
n
Joint distribution of i.i.d. RVs: p(x1, . . . , xn) = i=1 p(xi)
v
u n
u
1 n log X
n
t Xi = e n i=1
i
i=1
So from LLN
v
u n
u
n
t
Xi eE(log X) elog EX = EX.
i=1
Stock example:
1
1
E log ri = log 4 + log 0 =
2
2
E(Yt) Y0eE log ri = 0,
Example
t .
a, w.p. 1/2
X=
b, w.p. 1/2.
v
u
n
u
a+b
n
t
E
Xi ab
2
i=1
1
Xi EX
n i=1
n
AEP
Theorem. If X1, X2, . . . are i.i.d. p(x), then
1
log p(X1, X2, . . . , Xn) H(X),
n
in probability.
Proof:
n
1
1
log p(X1, X2, , Xn) =
log p(Xi)
n
n i=1
E log p(X)
= H(X).
There are several consequences.
Dr. Yao Xie, ECE587, Information Theory, Duke University
10
Typical set
A typical set
A(n)
11
p(0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0) = p
Xi
Xi
(1 p)
(1 p)
5 Xi
Xi
In this example, if
12
13
! "
n
k
1
25
300
2300
12650
53130
177100
480700
1081575
2042975
3268760
4457400
5200300
5200300
4457400
3268760
2042975
1081575
480700
177100
53130
12650
2300
300
25
1
! "
n k
p (1 p)nk
k
0.000000
0.000000
0.000000
0.000001
0.000007
0.000054
0.000227
0.001205
0.003121
0.013169
0.021222
0.077801
0.075967
0.267718
0.146507
0.575383
0.151086
0.846448
0.079986
0.970638
0.019891
0.997633
0.001937
0.999950
0.000047
0.000003
1
log p(x n )
n
1.321928
1.298530
1.275131
1.251733
1.228334
1.204936
1.181537
1.158139
1.134740
1.111342
1.087943
1.064545
1.041146
1.017748
0.994349
0.970951
0.947552
0.924154
0.900755
0.877357
0.853958
0.830560
0.807161
0.783763
0.760364
0.736966
14
Consequences of AEP
(n)
2. P {A } 1 .
(n)
3. |A | 2n(H(X)+).
(n)
4. |A | (1 )2n(H(X)).
15
Property 1
(n)
16
Property 2
(n)
17
Proof:
1=
p(x1, . . . , xn)
(x1 ,...,xn )
p(x1, . . . , xn)
(n)
(x1 ,...,xn )A
p(x1, . . . , xn)2n(H(X)+)
(n)
(x1 ,...,xn )A
n(H(X)+)
= |A(n)
.
|2
18
(n)
1<
p(x1, . . . , xn)
(n)
(x1 ,...,xn )A
n(H(X))
|A(n)
|2
.
19
n:|
|n elements
Non-typical set
Typical set
A(n) : 2n(H +
elements
20
21
Non-typical set
Description: n log | | + 2 bits
Typical set
Description: n(H + ) + 2 bits
22
[
E
1
l(X n) H(X) +
n
23
Summary of AEP
24
Next Time
AEP is about the property of independent sequences
What about the dependence processes?
Answer is entropy rate - next time.
25