Abstract A follow-up study was carried out to investigate the children of 204 mothers who had

previously participated in a study of their mental health during pregnancy and the first postnatal year.
One hundred and seventy two children, 170 mothers, and 99 fathers were assessed when the
children were 3 years 10 months. Boys of mothers depressed in the first year postpartum scored
approximately 1 standard deviation lower on standardised tests of intellectual attainment than boys
whose mothers were well that year. The difference was reliable even when behaviour during the test
was controlled for, and general behavioural problems, birth weight, parental IQ, measures of the
family climate and home environment, mother-child interaction, and breast-feeding during infancy
were taken into account.

Statistical Models for Political Science

Event Counts: Bias in Conventional
Procedures and Evidence for the
Exponential Poisson Regression Model

Gary King
This paper presents analytical, Monte Carlo, and empirical evidence on models for event
count data. Event counts are dependent variables that measure the number of times some
event occurs. Counts of international events are probably the most common, but numerous
examples exist in every empirical field of the discipline. The results of the analysis below
strongly suggest that the way event counts have been analyzed in hundreds of important
political science studies have produced statistically and substantively unreliable results.
Misspecification, inefficiency, bias, inconsistency, insufficiency, and other problems result
from the unknowing application of two common methods that are without theoretical

justification or empirical utility in this type of data. I show that the exponential Poisson
regression (EPR) model provides analytically, in large samples, and empirically, in small,
finite samples, a far superior model and optimal estimator. I also demonstrate the
advantage of this methodology in an application to nineteenth-century party switching in the
U.S. Congress. Its use by political scientists is strongly encouraged.

Narrative prose

Poetry written in the style of a narrative is known as narrative verse. Faerie Queen by Edmund
Spenser is an example of such poetry. It narrates the adventures of The Red-Cross Knight to
help Lady Una rescue her parents from the evil Dagon. On a symbolic level it narrates the
mission of the Holiness is to help the Truth, fight Evil, and thus regain its rightful place in human
hearts.

Example #3
Charlotte Macleods The Withdrawing Room is an example of a thriller or suspense narrative.
Augustus Quiffen, a lodger at Sarahs Brownstone home, is killed by falling under the train. It
seems to be an accident until Mary Smith tells Sarah that it is a murder but she is not sure of

the identity of the murderer. Sarah and Max Bittersohn investigate the matter and find that
the killer has planned the death beforehand.
Example #4
Don Quixote by Cervantes is a parody of Romance narratives that dealt with the adventures of
a valiant knight. Unlike serious Romances, in Don Quixote the narrative takes a comical turn. .

We laugh at how the Quixote was bestowed a knighthood in his battle with the giants
[windmills]. We enjoy how the knight helps the Christian king against the army of a Moorish
monarch [herd of sheep]. These and the rest of the incidents of the novel are written in the style
of Spanish romances of the 16th century to mock the idealism of knights in the contemporary
romances.