The Latest Thinking on

Biorenewables Manufacturing
A Roadmap to Success
Presented in conjunction with:
World Bio Markets, Amsterdam March 2014
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March 2014

Agenda
Introduction and Overview
Fermentation Technologies
Thermochemical Technologies
Chemical Catalytic and Enzymatic Technologies
Summary and Conclusions
Biorenewable Insights
Q&A

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

March 2014

Introduction and Overview

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March 2014

Nexant provides expertise across the energy

value chain
Energy
POWER

GAS

Chemicals and Clean-tech

DOWNSTREAM OIL

GREEN CHEMICALS

RENEWABLE ENERGY

C1 Chemicals &
Fertilizers

Syngas

Biomass

Biopolymers

Gasification

Olefins

Olefins

CHEMICALS

Gas Market
Analysis and
Forecasts

Petroleum Refining

Distribution
Software

Gas Monetization

Coal to Liquids

Aromatics

Gas Regulation

Alcohols

Solar (Thermal &

PV)

Gas to Liquids

Polymers

LNG & Gas

Pipeline Projects

Aromatics

Wind Power

Energy
Efficiency

Inorganics

Sourced from
Biomass, Algae,
Wastes, and
Agricultural Sources

Clean Coal

Electric Power
Grid
Management

Demand Side
Management

Product Market
Forecasts

Speciality
Chemicals
Advanced Materials

CO2 Capture and

Sequestration
Fuel Cells &
Hydrogen
Geothermal

In-depth knowledge from Nexant

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March 2014

NexantThinkingTM suite of multi-client products offers

comprehensive analytics, forecasts and insights for the
energy and chemical industries
www.nexantthinking.com

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

March 2014

We have divided our discussion into three key areas,

to be covered by our experts from around the globe

Fermentation
Ron Cascone
White Plains, NY,
USA

Chemical
Catalytic/
Enzymatic
Connie Lo
KL, Malaysia

Thermochemical
Michelle Lynch
London, UK

These technologies can frequently work with one other to

produce a finished bio-based product
PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

March 2014

Fermentation Technologies
Ron Cascone, NY

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March 2014

A good technology matches the strengths of the

platform with the needs of the market
Large Existing Secondary or Tertiary
Markets
metabolite
Large existing Market
Non-energy producing
pathways
Not robust

Central metabolism +1
Large Existing Market
Energy producing
pathways
Robust

Secondary or Tertiary
metabolite
Non-energy producing
pathways
Not robust
Market needs to be
Market Requires
developed
Development

Central metabolism +1
Energy producing
pathways
Robust
Market needs to be
developed

Metabolically
Unfavored

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

Metabolically
Favored

Metabolically favored
routes will have:
Better yields on
feedstock leading to
lower OPEX
Higher productivities
leading to lower CAPEX
Products targeting large
existing markets will
have:
Lower barriers to entry
Shorter lead times
required
Common areas of
concern are:
Septic control
Genetic drift
Titer
Separations

March 2014

A good technology matches the strengths of the

platform with the needs of the market
Metabolically favored
routes will have:

Large Existing
Markets
Aromatics e.g., pX
Olefins e.g., iC4=, BD

Alcohols e.g., Ethanol

Acids e.g., Citric
Diols e.g., BDO
Other e.g., Acetone

Generally contain
heteroatoms usually
at least one oxygen
Few or no C-C double
bonds
Products targeting
Large existing markets
will have:

Hydrocarbons
Other

Alcohols e.g., isobutanol

Acids e.g., Succinic

Market Requires
Development
Metabolically
Unfavored

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

Metabolically
Favored

Fungible products
Some fermentation
products require further
chemical processing to
enable accessing large
markets (e.g.,
isobutanol to iC4=)

March 2014

There are many fermentation developers for many

different chemical product targets at all stages of
development

R&D

Pilot

Early Commercial

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Commercial
March 2014

10

Profiles of selected companies active in

fermentation

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There are several obstacles to development,

however there is a clear path forward

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Thermochemical Technologies
Michelle Lynch, UK

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Thermochemical conversion is currently centered on heat and power but

intense R&D will enable the expansion of its applicability to renewable
drop in fuels, renewable chemicals and materials
EXAMPLE PRODUCTS
Combustion

Exhaust Gas
Purification

Gasification

Cleanup

Synthesis

Biomass

Heat
Electrical Power
Hydrogen
Alcohols
DME
FT Gasoline
FT Diesel
FT Lubricants
FT Waxes
Olefins
Oxochemicals
Ammonia
SNG
Hydrogen
Olefins
Oils
Biochar
Speciality Chemicals

Pyrolysis

Conversion
or Collection

Purification

Hydrodeoxygenation

Hydrogenation

Purification

Diesel Fuel
Jet Fuel

Other(1)
(1)

Separation

Purification

Hydrogen
Methane
Oils
Other

Examples: Hydrothermal Processing, Liquefaction, Wet Gasification

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The focus of governmental legislation and initiatives has

variable impact across bio-relevant sectors, with most
emphasis on power and heating
Proposed and implemented legislations often take on two differing approaches towards creating greener
industries: providing incentives/subsidies/funding versus enforcing industry-wide limitations on core metrics
(e.g. emissions restrictions, fuel consumption, etc. )

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Thermochemical transformation of biomass is possible

through modification of technologies originally intended
for fossil fuel feedstocks

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Thermochemical transformation of biomass is possible

through modification of technologies originally intended
for fossil fuel feedstocks
Opportunities

Challenges

Electrical Power & Heat

Regulatory Support
Carbon Credits
Crude oil price increases
Distributed Energy,
Co-Firing
Hydrogen economy
Low contaminant levels in raw
materials (e.g., sulfur)
Fungible process technology
Competitive CAPEX with
advanced coal
Economics, efficiency,
technology development,
feedstock scale & availability

Biogas & Biofuels

Regulatory Support
Funding Initiatives
Biofuels Mandates
Crude oil price increases
Feedstock flexibility
Drop-in fuels
Hydrogen economy
Low contaminant levels in raw
materials (e.g., sulfur)
Fungible process technology
Regulatory uncertainty (EU)
Economies of scale, small
gasifier performance, costreduction, feedstock scale &
availability, tar formation

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Chemicals
Regulatory Support
Sustainability Awards
Funding Initiatives
Rising petroleum based raw
material prices
Drop in replacements
End-user application
development
Consumer demand
Low contaminant levels in
raw materials (e.g., sulfur)
Product separation,
economies of scale, costreduction, feedstock scale &
availability, tar formation

March 2014

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Snapshot of selected companies in the

thermochemical landscape

R&D

Pilot

Early Commercial

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Commercial

March 2014

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Profiles of selected companies active in

thermochemical conversion

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There are several obstacles to development,

however there is a clear path forward

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Chemical Catalytic and

Enzymatic Technologies
Connie Lo, Malaysia

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A good technology matches the strengths of the

platform with the needs of the market
Large Existing Many products are
Markets
technically feasible,
however this may come
at a high cost preventing
economic feasibility

Many products are

technically feasible,
however this may come
at a high cost
preventing economic
feasibility

Transesterification
Hydrolysis
Isomerization
Alkylation

1st and 2nd chemical

derivatives of many
biomass components
(which are frequently
oxygenated)

Market Requires
Development
More
Complex

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

Less
Complex

Less complex products

will have:
Preferably one low cost
step, thus a low OPEX
Low cost equipment due
to low severity
processing, thus a low
CAPEX
Products targeting Large
existing markets will
have:
Lower barriers to entry
Shorter lead times
required
Common areas of
concern are:
Temperature
Pressure
Residence Time
Side reactions
Purification

March 2014

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A good technology matches the strengths of the

platform with the needs of the market
Large Existing para-Xylene
Markets
Adipic Acid
Cellulose Hydrolysis/
Sugars:
(Enzymatic,
Acid/Chemical)

Oleochemicals
Biodiesel
Glycerin to Propylene
glycol
Many Others

Few if any complex

Furfural
routes are being
Glucaric Acid
developed for chemicals Gluconic Acid
that would require
market development or
have small, well served
markets
Market Requires
Development
More
Complex

PP: BD/Chem/GenThe Latest Thinking on Biorenewables Manufacturing

Less
Complex

Less complex products

will have:
An addition or subtraction
to the number or
distribution of carbon and
oxygen atoms in the
molecule
This can also include the
addition or subtraction of
unsaturations to the
molecules in question
Products targeting large
existing markets will
have:
Fungible products
Sometimes a
fermentation or
thermochemical product
may be a good feedstock
for a chemical or
enzymatic reaction

March 2014

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Many chemical technologies are already commercial

R&D

Pilot

Early Commercial

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Commercial
March 2014

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Profiles of selected companies active in

catalysts and chemicals

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There are several obstacles to development,

however there is a clear path forward

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Summary and Conclusions

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Some renewable chemicals have been commercial for

many years, and others have recently emerged
Commercial Technologies
Ethanol, via fermentation +/- 10,000 BC

Emerging Technologies
Isobutanol, via fermentation

Oleochemicals +/- 3,000 BC

Isobutylene, via fermentation or isobutanol

dehydration

n-butanol and acetone, via ABE

fermentation Early 1900s

Butadiene, via various routes

Methanol, via wood Early 1900s

BDO, via fermentation or succinic acid

Acetic Acid, via wood Early 1900s

Acrylic Acid, via fermentation or lactic acid

or 3-HPA

Ethylene, via ethanol dehydration Late

1900s

Adipic Acid, via catalysis

Citric Acid, Ascorbic Acid, via fermentation

Early 1900s

Aromatics, via various routes

(thermochemical and/or catalytic)

PDO , via fermentation Early 2000s

Many others

PLA , via fermentation Early 2000s

Many more including chemicals, food and
pharma

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Investment has shifted to biochemicals and Oil and Gas

companies are becoming very active in the cleantech area
Oil and Gas Company Participation in
Clean Tech

Biofuel vs. Biochemical Investment

100%
90%

Percent of Investments

80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%

2006

2007

2008

Without Chemical Aspect

2009

2010

2011

2012

With Chemical Aspect

Source: Cleantech Group, Pew Trust, Nexant Research

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While there are some key differences, biobased

product development shares some key developmental
challenges and drivers
Renewable chemical substitutes are emerging for the petrochemical building
blocks - ethylene, propylene, butadiene, p-xylene, benzene, syngas, as well
as directly for some key derivatives such as isoprene, acrylic and adipic acid,
BDO
Competitive cost and sustainability will be the new drivers rather than just
public policy
A number of biotech and petrochemical players and routes are competing
Players need to have competitive economics to succeed
The challenges to renewable chemical commercialization are formidable:
Technology development scale-up, feedstock handling, etc.
Management development: technology developers usually dont know
commercial aspects of petrochemicals hire experienced executives from
oil/chemical industries
Partner with major players

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Biorenewable Insights

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NexantThinkingTM is launching a new product focused

on this sector called: Biorenewable Insights
Biorenewable Insights consists of two main parts: Reports and Databases
Reports on biobased chemicals
Technology Descriptions
Economics (cost of production) updated quarterly
Capacity Analysis (announced and risk adjusted) updated quarterly
Patent Analysis
Databases available for value chain subscribers (see next slide)
Cost of production, quarterly
Capacity analysis by chemical and value chain, quarterly

Nexant is launching this service in response to the growth in this

sector an the need for a comprehensive understanding of these
technologies, and their potential impact on conventional technologies
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NexantThinkingTM is launching a new product focused

on this sector called: Biorenewable Insights
Nexant proposes analyzing biochemicals by conventional petrochemical value chain:

Nexant will issue three reports per value chain per year, thus 15 reports per yearthese will be
selected by a combination of subscriber input and Nexants discretion

The first three reports for each value chain, and thus the first years reports, are the top three in
each column

Once the end of the list is reached the reports will be updated, thus year 1 reports will be updated
in year 4, unless new topics are added before then

The above is a proposed listing of report topics by value chain, and is tentative.
Nexant is open to adding topics of interest as well as changing the order, as suggested by our
subscribers. Additionally, new topics will be added and old topics retired as prudent.
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TOCs for Reports

I.

Executive Summary

II. Introduction
III. Technologies
A.

Biotech Route 1
1. Company Overview
2. Technology
a. Chemistry
b. Process Description
B. Repeat for Other Developers
1. Company Overview
2. Technology
a. Chemistry
b. Process Description
C. Conventional Technology

IV. Economics
A.
B.
C.

Methodology
Competitive Economics
Cost of Production
1. Biotech Route 1
2. Repeat of Other Developers

V. Capacity Analysis
A.
B.

Announced Project Listing

Adjusted Project Listing
1. Announced Project 1
a. Partners
b. Funding/Funding Plans
c. Technical Complexity
d. Commercialization Status
e. Project Timing/Construction
Status
f. Other Project Details
g. Project Weighting and Scoring
h. Adjusted Project Capacity
2. Repeat for Other Developers
a. Partners
b. Funding/Funding Plans
c. Technical Complexity
d. Commercialization Status
e. Project Timing/Construction
Status
f. Other Project Details
g. Project Weighting and Scoring
h. Adjusted Project Capacity
3. Adjusted Project Capacity
Summary

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VI. Implications for Conventional

Technology
A. Scales and Markets
B. Prices, Margins, and COP

VII. Patent Landscape

A.

Issued Patents
1. Assignees
2. Countries / Regions
B. Patent Applications
1. Assignees
2. Countries / Regions

March 2014

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Capacity Databases will include both graphic

and Excel data for value chains subscribed
The bio-based chemicals capacity database will include:

Compilation of project capacities, as announced

Compilation of adjusted project capacities, as discounted by Nexants capacity

analysis

Nexant will provide this data both as an excel database, and graphically
Announced Project Capacities
(Illustrative)

Adjusted Project Capacities

(Illustrative)

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What you get with a subscription

Annual subscription to each value chain will include:
Three reports for the value chain, published in April, August and
December
Access to the Capacity Database for that value chain (updated
quarterly)
Quarterly updates to the process economics tables
Number of
Value Chains Purchased
1
2
3
4
5

Number of
Reports Received Per Year
3
6
9
12
15

Contact for pricing: sslome@nexant.com

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Q&A

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Questions?

Special thanks to World Bio Markets and Green Power Conferences for their support and
promotion of todays presentation. To learn more about upcoming World Bio Market events,
please visit them online at:

http://www.greenpowerconferences.com/wbmseries
Nexant Presenter Info:
Steven Slome

Ron Cascone

Michelle Lynch

Connie Lo

White Plains, NY

White Plains, NY

London, UK

Kuala Lumpur, MY

sslome@nexant.com

rcascone@nexant.com mlynch@nexant.com

+1 914 609 0379

+1 914 609 0316

+44 207 950 1539

ConnieL@nexant.com
+60 3 2298 7231

Visit www.nexant.com or www.nexantthinking.com for more information

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Nexant, Inc.
San Francisco
New York
This presentation was prepared by Nexant, Inc.(Nexant). Except where specifically stated otherwise in the
presentation, the information contained herein was prepared on the basis of information that is publicly available
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