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AugusteComtealso formulatedin the realmof humanintellectual development, in his bid to reduce the apparent muddle of
'social phenomena' to some intelligible order or 'one body of
homogenous doctrine',(3) just as scientists have done for
94
B. A. MOJUETAN
Ibn Khaldfin's cycle of fatalism, which suggests the shortcomings of Ibn Khaldfin's thesis, and the need therefore for
its revision.
It is suggested that at the root of the problem of political
instability in the medieval Maghrib was the question of legitimHow does a conquering minority group-for the Berber
acy.
95
The notion of the centrality of the state in the social environment is perhaps more reminiscent of modern states with their
high degree of administrative intervention in society, thanks
to advances in technology; for medieval state systems, however,
which lacked the resources of the modern state forcentralisation,
a paradigm which locates the state on the periphery of society
may be more representative of the medieval reality. A remarkable feature of the medieval Maghribian state was its marginality
or alienation-what may be referredto as its 'frontierexistence'.
The state's marginal relationship with society obviously inhibited
the political socialisation process essential to its stabilisation.
In NorthAfrica(as in mostofmedievalIslam) thestatewas peripheral
to the loyaltysystem. Therewas attachmentat the level of primary
relationsto the extendedfamily,the guild,the religiousbrotherhood,
the tribe(in rural areas) and the quarter(in the urban). At the top
therewas the over-riding
feelingof identitywith the Islamic totality,
the dar al-Islam.
96
B.A. MOJUETAN
(1) Leon Carl Brown, 'Changing Cultures and New Loyalties in North Africa',
in W. H. Lewis, op. cit., p. 98.
97
ribian state was a weak, predatory,'patrimonial'(2) organisation, whichexplains its heavy relianceon coercionas a necessary
instrument of government as well as the means of survival.
'The strength of political organisations and procedures varies
with their scope of support and their level of institutionalisation'.
Huntington's definition of institutionalisation would
(1) Max Weber, Economy and Society (eds.) G. Roth and C. Wittich, New
York, 1968, p. 215.
(2) Patrimonialism and, in its extreme form,sultanism tend to arise whenever
traditional domination develops an administration and a military force which
are purely personal instrumentsof the master... The primary external support
of patrimonial power is provided by slaves... coloni and conscripted subjects,
but also by mercenarybodyguards and armies... By controllingthese instruments
the ruler can broaden the range of his arbitrarypowers... Max Weber, op. cit.,
pp. 231-2.
(3) Samuel P. Huntington, 'Political Developments and Political Decay',
World Politics, Vol. 17 No. 3 1965, cited by Clement Henry Moore, Politics in
North Africa, Boston 1970, p. 92.
7
98
B. A. MOJUETAN
II
The concept of 'asabiyya in Ibn Khaldin's political philosophy
is already well-known. State-formation in societies characterised by ethnic plurality requires a certain degree of group
cohesion or solidarity. This attribute is more developed in
rural areas where the communal esprit de corps has as yet not
been eroded by the individualism of city life. It is to this group
cohesion that state-formationin complex, ethnic environments
owes its initial dynamic.
Not so well-known, however, is Ibn Khaldtin's reflectionon
the dysfunctional aspect of 'asabiyya in the state organism.
'Asabiyya, the engine of state, is also a major constraint on the
is why
a dynastyrarelyestablishesitselffirmlyin lands with many different
tribesand groups. The reason for this is the difference
in opinions
and desires. Behind each opinionand desire,thereis a groupfeeling,
thereis much oppo'asabiyya,defendingit. At any time,therefore,
sitionto a dynastyor rebellionagainst it even if a dynastypossesses
IBN
KHALDON
AND
HIS
CYCLE
OF FATALISM
99
100
B.A.
MOJUETAN
all the glory for himself... Thus the vigour of the group feeling,
'asabiyya,is brokento some extent... Luxuryreachesits peak among
them (the thirdgeneration)because they are so much given to a life
of prosperityand ease... Group feelingdisappears completely(1).
The resultis that the militarydefenceof the dynastyis weakenedand
the powerof the dynastydeclines. Neighbouring
dynasticsor groups
and tribes under the controlof the dynastyitselfbecome bold and
attack it and God permitsit to sufferthe destructionthat He has
This cycle of fatalismis repeated every threegenerations'...the durationof the lifeof a dynastydoes not as a rule exceed
three generations'.(3)
III
The Sa'dians may be said to have inaugurateda revolution
in the traditionof the medieval Maghribianstate; their state
was inspired by a national movement and thus marked a
radical departure from the ethnic political tradition of the
medieval Maghrib. The new phenomenon of the national
state (4) was the productof indigenousreactionto the crisisof
Portuguese imperialism.
By the 15th century,MaghribianIslam was on the defensive
against Christian expansion from the Iberian peninsular.
Spain and Portugaloccupiedcoastal areas on the Mediterranean
and the Atlantic respectively. Portuguese imperialism,(5)
however,constituteda much greater burden on the Muslim
communityin Morocco. The Portugueseattemptedto invade
the middlemanpositionof the trans-Saharanmerchantsin the
Sous region; they also instituteda monopolisticcommercial
regimeon the Atlantic seaboard, which not only stifledtrade
IBN
KHALDiUN
AND
HIS
CYCLE
OF
FATALISM
101
102
B. A. MOJUETAN
103
the process of political centralisation. The increasing complexity of government entailed a measure of bureaucratisation of
the state, and thus was inaugurated the proto-type of the
modern makhzan. (")
itselfbelonged to the 'private realm' just like the various social units comprisingthe
segmentary society. The Maghribian politico-religiouscommunity may thus be
conceptualised in terms of an aggregationof 'private realms'. This socio-political
atomisation not only restrictedthe social base of the state--the state thus had a
weak social anchorage, which was a factor of fragility-but also inhibited the
evolution of an extensive and corporate civil society or political community,
namely, a 'public realm'. This 'lag in political evolution' was a contributory
factor to the situation of 'colonisabilit6' in the Maghrib. The word is Malek
Bennabi's: Vocationde l'Islam, Paris 1954, p. 83, cited by Leon Carl Brown, op. cit.,
p. 98; note 5 (pp. 245-246).
(1) The same may be said also of Mawlay Ismi'il's state. See p. 105.
(2) The organisation of al-Mansir's army is discussed by al-Wufrini, op. cit.,
pp. 115-118 Ar. text; 195-201 Fr. transl.
(3) Ibid., p. 158 Ar. text; 259 Fr. transl.
(4) Al-FishtBli, Mandhil
ft Akhbdr al-Mulhk al-Shurafd' (ed.)
al-safd'
'Abdallih GanOn, Tetuan 1964, p. 18.
of the maCkhian
in the Encyclo(5) Michaux-Bellaire discussesthe development
paedia of Islam 1st Edition.
104
B. A. MOJUETAN
105
embodiedin the idea of the bay'a servedto buttressthe legitimacy of sharifianleadership which was founded essentiallyon
the charisma associated with its pedigree.
The historyof the 'Alawl dynastyprovidesa classic example
of how sharifianpoliticallegitimacyengendereddevotionto its
leadership. Founded by al-Rashid, the 'AlawI dynasty was
consolidatedby Mawlay IsmI'll. Mawlay Ismi'il, faced with
the same problem of sustaining a political system lacking
institutionalsupport,exhibitedthe same repressiveauthoritarianism as al-Mansir, relyingon an elaborate militarymachine
as a weapon of governmentas well as an instrumentof
authority. Mawlay Ism~'il's state, like at Mansfir's,did not
survive his death. The 'abrd army(3) and the guish Oudaya,
hitherto the main support of Mawlay Ismi'll's state, became
106
B. A. MOJUETAN
IBN
KHALDUN
AND
HIS
CYCLE
OF FATALISM
107
IV
The 16th centurymarked a revolutionin the development
of the state traditionin the Maghrib. A state emergedin
Moroccothat was inspiredby a national ratherthan an ethnic
movement. In spite of its genesis in a mass movement,
however,the national state exhibitedthe same shortcomings
as the ethnicstate. Both sufferedalienationbecause of their
marginal, exclusivist character and thereforeneeded to be
propped up by forceto compensatefortheir limited'scope of
(social) support' and their low 'level of institutionalisation.'
If the sharifianstate lacked legitimacy,the sharifianruling
institution,however,enjoyed legitimacy,and this explains the
remarkablecontinuity,inspiteof political instability,of sharifianleadershipin Moroccosinceits inceptionin the 16thcentury.
The problemof politicalinstabilityin the medieval Maghrib
has a contemporary
relevancein the developingworldof today.
It would be belabouring a hackneyed political diagnosis to
remarkthat the high incidence of political instabilityin the
Third World may be attributedlargely to the absence of a
'political way of life' or institutionalconsensus,what is other-
108
B. A. MOJUETAN
wise referred
to as 'the rulesofgame'. (1) The resultis that the
in
order
to survive,resort,like theirearliercounterparts
states,
in the medieval Maghrib,to elaborate militarybuild-ups to
provide the necessary instrumentof support. In this sense,
it may be postulatedthat a numberof the developing
therefore,
countriesof today have hardly evolved beyond the medieval
Maghribianstage in the developmentof the politicalprocess.(s)
B. A. MOJUETAN
(Ibadan, Nigeria)
(1) Cf, B. J. Dudley, Instability and Political Order: Politics and Crisis in
Nigeria, Ibadan University Press 1973, Chapt. I, for a review and critique of
representative theories of political instability in the Third World.
(2) An earlierversion of this paper was presentedin 1976 at a seminar organised
I am grateful to my
by the Department of History, University of Ibadan.
colleague, Dr. Peter Ekeh, for making available to me his paper cited in note 3,
p. 102.