1/6/2016

GLOBAL CHANGE
oEarth
Earth is changing.
changing
oEarth has changed in the past.
oEarth will change in the future.
oHow will this affect us?

Introduction
oEarth is changing probably faster today than it has
in the past.
Mostly due to human activity (anthropogenic).
Most clearly seen in the atmosphere.
Also in forests, mountains, lakes, rivers and
oceans etc.
Some effects detrimental to the environment
Local,
Local regional and global

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oGlobal environmental issues that we will discuss:

Global
Gl b l warming
i
-different than greenhouse effect
Ozone hole over Antarctica
Deforestation and loss of Biodiversity

What needs to be done

1 Understanding of the issues at hand:
1.
o Knowledge of the scientific problems is
essential for taking right and intelligent
decisions.
o At times the decision may be costly.

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What needs to be done

2. Past global change:
o Assessing how the environment was changing
before humans came on the scene.
o Need to look at the past records to distinguish
between natural and anthropogenic change.
o Climate records show overlapping of both short
term (man made) and long term changes.
o Need to understand how and why climate has
changed in the past.
o Is the Earth cooling or heating up?

What needs to be done

3. Systems approach:
o To treat Earth as a system of interrelated and
interacting components: the atmosphere, the
hydrosphere, the biota and the solid Earth
o To understand how different components
interact in response
p
to external influences, or
forcings.

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Geosphere

Global Change on short time scales

Global Warming
oGreenhouse effect- A natural process wherein gases
absorb outgoing infrared radiation (IR or radiant heat) and
reradiate it back to the Earths surface. It makes the Earth
warmer because of the atmosphere.
oGlobal warmingg a warming
g of Earths atmosphere
p
that is
due to an anthropogenic enhancement of the greenhouse
effect by releasing certain gases through a combination of
industrial and agricultural activities.

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Global Change on short time scales

Global Warming
oThe issue has been controversial.
oDifficult to separate the anthropogenic signal from
natural ones.
oIs warming because of human influence?

Global Change on short time scales

Evidence of Global Warming
oThere are clear evidence of global warming.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
2007 report
Increase in air and ocean temperatures
Widespread melting of snow and ice
Rise in global average sea level

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MaunaLoaCO2
concentrations

CharlesDavidKeeling
(19282005)

KeelingCurve
beganfrom1958

Overall increase of ~1.4 ppm/yr

Rate of increase is faster in the recent past (0.7
ppm/yr in the early 1960s to 1.9 ppm/yr over the last
decade.

KeelingCurve:Updated
https://scripps.ucsd.edu/programs/keelingcurve/

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Overall increase of ~1.4 ppm/yr

Rate of increase is faster in the recent past (0.7 ppm/yr in the
early 1960s to 1.9 ppm/yr over the last decade.

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Increase in atmospheric CO2

oEvidence that atmospheric CO2 is increasing is
indisputable.
p
oHas been confirmed in many stations in the world.
oRange in seasonal fluctuations vary.
oMostly caused by combustion of coal, oil and
natural gas, partly by tropical deforestation
How do we know this??

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Icecorerecords
oWhendidtheincrease
begin?
g
oNeedtogotorecords
beforehumanimpact.
oNotetheconcurrence
betweenicecorerecords
anddirectmeasurements.

oPreindustrial CO2 concentration ((at ca. 1800)) was ~280 ppm.

pp
Today, it is about 400 ppm.
oCO2 build up started well before Industrial Age (around 1850)
oIncrease between 1800-1850 is attributed to deforestation in North
America
oCalled the pioneer effect.

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PreindustrialCO2 concentration(atca.1800)was~280ppm.Today,itisabout390
ppm.

The concentrations of greenhouse gases are

definitely increasing!!!
So what???
Is it affecting us?
Has it changed the climate?

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Change in surface temperature

oHas the increase in greenhouse gases caused a rise in
temperature?
oThe answer is Yes! as per IPCC.
oData of recording stations (meteorological stations) over 100
years, show consistent increase in atmospheric temperature.
oSimilar trends shown byy SST measurements carried out byy
ships.

Averagesurfacetemperatureasdeviationsfrom19611990meanvalue.
IPCCAssessmentReport2007
GoddardInstituteforSpaceStudies (GISS),NationalClimaticDataCenter(NCDC) NOAA,
ClimaticResearchUnitattheUniversityofEastAnglia(CRUTEM)

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Change in surface temperature

oSurface temperature has increased by about 0.8C since
1900.
oThis increase is expected from 40% increase in atmospheric
CO2 as seen earlier.
oBut temperature does not increase as uniformly as CO2 and
rates of increase differ. Climate is also influenced by other
parameters.
oThere could be problems with temperature records.

Recordsofglobalsurfacetemperature
oMeteorological stations are located more in the cities. This
generates a heat
heat island
island that influences the temperature
records. Scientists try to account for this effect, removal of this
effect can not be very accurate.
oUncertainty in the SST measurements.
oThe way measurement is done
oDifferent coverage in space and time
oSatellite measurements will improve records in future

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Recordsofglobalsurfacetemperature

oCoverage in time and space. Several decades of reliable

measurements are needed for establishing accurate trends.
oIn spite of this, 0.8C increase seems real.
oThe cause needs to be understood.

Causes and problems of temperature change

o Is the recent warming a recovery from Little Ice Age
(1500-1850)? Underscores the importance of looking at the
past records to p
p
predict the future.
o During the period between the 1940 and 1970, warming
stopped. Northern hemisphere temperature declined.
o This may have been caused by sulfate aerosols that enter
the atmosphere from coal fired power plants.
o Coal burning also releases CO2 and should contribute to
global warming.

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Causes and problems of temperature change

o We now scrub the SO2 from coal plant emissions to protect
l k and
lakes
d rivers
i
ffrom acid
id rain.
i
o Removal timescales of SO2 (few weeks) and CO2 (decades)
are different, CO2 effect is cumulative. Need for awareness
of time scale of global change.

Effect of global warming

Changes in the cryosphere
oRelatively more warming near the North Pole
Pole.
oIn Alaska, the warming has been nearly 3C in the
last century.
oDramatic effects on the extent of sea ice in the
Arctic Ocean.

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Effect of global warming

Changes in the cryosphere

Effect of global warming

Source:NASA. Theyellowoutlineshowstheaverageseaiceminimumfrom1979.

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Effect of global warming

Effect of global warming

Changes in the cryosphere
oThe Northwest Passage is open a few weeks each year
oShould facilitate trade between Europe and the Americas
oProblem for polar bears and local inhabitants
oIncreased melting of Greenland ice sheets (thicker and
hence slower to melt) would raise sea level adverse effect
on continental coast lines
oNote:
N t the
th melting
lti off Arctic
A ti sea ice
i does
d
nott cause change
h
in the sea level)

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Effect of global warming

oRise in sea level
oLoss of soil moisture
oTropical pests
oIntensity of tropical hurricanes

Effect of global warming

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Effect of global warming

OzoneHole
StratosphericozoneabsorbsharmfulUVrays.
Ozonedepletioncanhaveadverseeffectonlife.
oFirstdiscoveredin1985overAntarctica.
oObservedinyearlyozoneconcentrationaboveHalley
Bay.
oTheozonelevelduringOctoberdroppedbyhalf
between1975and1990.

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Ozone Depletion
oMostly caused by chlorine compounds
namely chlorine monoxide, ClO.
oInside the hole, ozone levels were more than
a factor of two lower and ClO concentration
were 15 times higher

http://www.antarctica.ac.uk/met/jds/ozone/images/zminoctnocurve.JPG

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Deforestation and loss of biodiversity

oHumans switched from hunters/gatherers
to farmers.
oLoss of vegetation leads to loss of plant
species, dependent animals and
microorganisms.
oBiodiversity reduced.
oMost significant in tropical rain forests
(loss rate is ~1.8% per year).
oExtinction of species and loss of genetic
information.

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