Russia, New Regional order in Post-Soviet region and

Ukraine

IR 6642 Geopolitics of Eurasia

Troy University
Instructor: Dr. Michael O. Slobodchikof
Student: Ana Darbaidze

2015

Table of Contents

Abstract .
3
Introduction
.. 3
Regional order, the Post-Communist Ties
.. 4
Ukraines conflict and its importance
.. 6
Russias involvement in Ukraines Crisis ...
.. 7
Ukraine and International Politics ...
... 9
The worst scenario for Post-soviet region
. 10
Solution for Ukraine?
.. 11
Conclusion ...
12
Bibliography
13

Abstract
After the long time realism is still actual theory among the World politic,
democratic states fight with each other, the world is divided into the sphere
of influences and the order is still the most important factor for a states
survival. (Huntington, 1968)

Introduction
After the end of the Cold War Era, the world is the first time under the threat
of the Cold War being renewed and the danger raised from Russian-Ukraine
conflict.
The Cold War ended on December 1991 when 3 countries in Belovezh Ukraine, Byelorussia and Russia itself declared independence and the Soviet
Union was dissolved. (Iskauskas, 2009) The end of the Cold War was not
followed by any international conference, that would decide who was the
winner and the loser between the two sides, was not followed by any
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reparations, division of sphere of influence. The United States new that they
had won the Cold War, though Reagan had never claimed, that he bested
Soviet Union. (Kingsbury, 2010) Because of these facts, there have been
other ideas about the end of Cold War, ideas that it was the winning for both
Superpowers, and that the Soviet Union did not collapse because of external
pressures, it ended because Mikhail Gorbachev maneuvered it out of
exclusive power, he ended Communist rule. For Soviet Unions own interest.
(Kingsbury, 2010) Soviet Union didnt recognized the defeat and losing the
influence over the post-Soviet countries, thats why its Laws successor
Russia considered and still considers itself as a Regional power, deems that
the Post-Soviet region is still the sphere of Russias own interest.
After the end of Cold War, Russia had chance to create itself a new regional
order in the post-Soviet area and if it would be willing to accept the broad
rules of global interaction imposed, then it would be able to create its own
regional order. Beside this both former US Presidents George H. W. Bush and
Clinton promised Russian President Boris Yeltsin that NATO would not
expand. (Slobodchikof, 2014)
Because of this, the US and Russia interests never crossed each over until
NATO and EU decision to expand. Enlarging NATO and EU, their willingness
ofer western course to post-Soviet countries is a hampering factor for
Russias hegemonic order in region, it also causes security dilemma, as
NATO troops systematically getting closer at Russias border.

Until Ukraines crisis, post-Cold War era never been tensed.

Regional order, the Post-Communist Ties

While the west was not interested in the post-Soviet countries Russia
broadened its ties among the former satellites, in the Cold War period both
hegemons jockeying to try to expand their order over more of the
international system (Slobodchikof, 2014), but after that Russia was trying
to retain power and status quo in region. For this purpose, Russia has used
several means:
1. Creating the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at the same
time as collapsing the Soviet Union CIS was created on 8-th of
December 1991, it was created to both manage the collapse of the
Soviet Union, to strengthen and preserve many of pre-existing
economic, political and military ties among the post-Soviet states. The
political meaning of the alliance was hazy. The independent states took
over former soviet government facilities within their borders. The
military side of the CIS was farther more confusing. They agreed to
sustain any arms agreements signed by the former Soviet Union. The
former Soviet defense minister would retain control over the military
until CIS could agree about conventional forces within their borders.
(Kubicek, 2009) The key player in this organization was Russia (Allison,
2004) Main advantage for Russia was retain regional hegemonic order,
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member states getting some benefit, as their economic, political,

cultural or social life was depending on center.
There is the way in international politics that describes why weak
states decide to make alliance with bigger states, its called Omni
balancing or bandwagoning theory argues, that internal threats of
survival propels weak countries to make structure external alignment
choices. Looking at weaker Third World states, they usually band allies
with locally strong states in order to increase their chances to survival,
even to the detriment of security of the state itself. (David, 1991) This
may explain the willingness of former soviet states being member of
CIS that would guaranteed survival for them. For example Georgias
membership of CIS:
Georgian Government believed, that only way out to stop the
collapse of country and return lost territories from Abkhazia and
South Ossetia was being member of CIS, we had such promise from
Russian government, thats why we decided to vote for being
member of it, this was very naive action
(Baramidze, 2013)

However, nowadays CIS is not very successful organization, so Russia tries to

create new ways establish regional order
2. The Eurasian Union Russia tries to rebuild control over South Caucasus
and Central Asia regions, also on other states in region, this is the aim
of project of new Eurasian Union, the frame of union is various it covers
political, economic, trade, military, humanitarian and cultural issues.
There are two ideas about Eurasian unions: one real and second
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imaginary. One is economic idea of Eurasian Economic Union like other

economic organizations and other is geopolitical, the union is supposed
to crown Vladimir Putins eforts to reintegrate the post-Soviet states: it
should be the instrument to make Russia a distinctive pole of influence
by making new union with former Soviet republics. (Popescue, 2011)
Eurasinism as a political ideology created in 1917 in Russia, but it
became popular idea in 2011 by Vladimir Putin:

We offer you strong supranational union, which can be new pole of

modern world, that can at the same time serve as a link between
Europe, the dynamic Asia and Pacific region

(Putin, 2011)
The main idea for Putin is to create power that would be counterbalance
of EU and ruled by Russia.
After analyzing Russias desires, it is obvious what they want in Ukraine:
Ukraine is new and very important area on Eurasian chessboard, it
is a geopolitical center, without Ukraine Russia have no chance
being Eurasian Empire.

(Br
zezinski, 1997)

Ukraines conflict and its importance

Ukraines conflict began with February revolution; it was followed by
Yanukovychs announcement, that he would not sign Association Agreement,
starting with small gathering on the Maidan square the numbers soon
swelled. The number of demonstrates increased about 500,000. The major

escalation took place after 16 January, when Verkhovna Rada adopted a

bundle of 12 anti-protest laws (dictatorship laws).
According to Sakwa soon began the marginalization of the movement and
Revolt element became more salient, this was now movement not for
some ideal, but a revolution against the regime. The main initiators of
radicalization the protest movement have been opposition parties who lead
this demonstration, as most of them have been oligarchs who gained with
created chaos. The predominant spirit of revolution became an extreme form
of monist Ukrainian nationalism. (Sakwa, 2015)
The Maidan constituted itself as a peoples parliament, (Sakwa, 2015). New
government undertook several radical steps that have been the biggest
mistakes made by them, which cause Russias involvement in conflict,
protests among minorities in Ukraine and lose of Crimea
The newly created government abolished the law of July 2012 granting
regions the right to instate a second official language where there was at
least 10 per cent minorities; this was attack against all Russian-speakers,
which are considerate power in Ukraine. In 2012 13 out of Ukraines 27
regions

adopted

Russian

as

second

language,

two

western

regions

introduced Romanian and Hungarian as official languages. (Cancel language

law in Ukraine, 2014) In addition, the armed militants of Country were given
quasi-official status, they have been patrolling the streets, oligarchs funded
their own militias, altogether cause chaos and conflict between anti-Maidan

protesters and Maidan demonstrates, revolution became as operations

against enemies of revolution resulting in civil war. (Sakwa, 2015).

Russias involvement in Ukraines Crisis

All decisions made by new government of Ukraine encouraged separatist
moves and gave chances to Russias government to use situation as a
threat against Russian-speakers and the way to involve in process, though
there were no any reported cases of ethnic persecution. As a result Russian
armed forces seized control on Crimeas strategic objectives, there have
been 12, 500 people stationed in peninsula. (Sakwa, 2015)
The referendum was held in Crimea on 16 March, this referendum is
considered as a referendum under Kalashnikov (Simpson, 2015) the major
population was in favour of being independent and being part of Russia, after
referendum on 18 March Crimea formally became part of the Russian
Federation.
Russia did its best to keep Crimea under its sphere of influence, as the region
is very important, Sevastopols warm-water port does not have any
substitute, or alternative for Russia (Sakwa, 2015) they also avoided at list
Ukraines NATO membership, because entering in organization with conflict
regions is merely impossible. Besides that, weaken Ukraine can be less
threat for Russia, easier to influence on its political leaders and achieve its
goal to put pro-Russian leader at the head of country.

Referendum held in Crimea cannot be consider as valid, because it violated

the Ukrainian constitution and international law the Ukrainian Constitution
does not contemplate the secession of territories, and where referendums
are contemplated they must be organized on a national not regional level.
(Balouzhiyeh, 2014) Russia uses the same arguments and the same strategy
every time to justify its involvement in post-Soviet countrys conflicts:
1. Procedural point Sevastopol remained under the direct control of Russia;
2. Prevention to protect Russian-speakers being abused by protesters, this is
reason that Russia also used for Abkhazia and South Ossetia conflict, even in
2013 special forces have been created to defend ethnic Russians near
abroad. 3. Peoples Right of self-determination, though self-determination
can be recognized, then a. it is not secession and b. must be based on
referendum that meets standards recognized by International Law. 4. Kosovo
as a precedent (Sakwa, 2015) for Putin if there exists Kosovo precedent, then
he can justify every secessionist movement with it
Besides that, as I have mentioned already several times Ukraine is important
for Russia not because of current factors, but also for 25 years Ukraine is
between two radically diferent systems: EU and Russia. Ukraine as a
member of EU or NATO will be huge challenge for Russia, if Germany has
influence among his neighborhood, Ukraine can play the same role, it is
possible that Byelorussia, Moldova and even south Caucasus be under the
Kyivs economic influence.

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Ukraine also has a great importance for west. About Ukraines importance we
can assume from 5 billion investments made by US in Ukraine since 1991 for
democracy-promotion, also by Victoria Nulands leaked phone call talking
about US involvement in future development of processes. Also then country
wants to be EU member there are several rather hard procedures, reforms to
be done until becoming member, while Ukraine had several problems in this
field for example corruption, problems with minorities. What we can deduce
from this leak phone call is that, at first US still has the great influence on
worlds politics, still remains its hegemonic power and is a main decision
maker. Secondly Russias role or desire being regional power is not wellestimated, also supportive promises made by US encourages post-Soviet
countries against Russia, that ends with separatism and with conflicts,
maybe with such behaviors US tries to weaken Russias influence in region,
but at the same time causes chaos.

Ukraine and International Politics

Russias use of force and the reunification of Crimea was followed wave of
sanctions; US sponsored a vote in UN General Assembly to support
Ukraines territorial integrity and condemning the annexation. By a vote 100
hundred voted in favour, 11 against, 58 (UN daily news, 2014) among the 58
states who abstained included China, Brazil and other BRICS countries, who
are allied with Russia, they condemned the international community for
isolating Russia, but refused to criticize Russia for actions in Ukraine, being

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afraid of sanctions because of protecting Russias interests. (Sakwa, 2015)

Some countries who abstained sufer with the same problem and did not
vote, for the sake of their own national interests, preferred to stay neutral in
this issue. For example India, which has the conflict situation with Kashmir.
I have mentioned several times, the role of Russia in this conflict, to avoid
partiality and being more unambiguous, It is necessary to see the other side
of coin. To look the situation as a threat for Russias national interest, Russia
has always mentioned, that they would not stand NATO enlargement and its
strategical neighbor being Western bastion. West had been threatened to
Russias core interests, elites in Europe and US think that in 21 century,
realism holds little relevance, but the crisis in Ukraine showed the relevance
of real politics. (Mearsheimer, 2014) However, west still acts against Russia
with the name of democracy, tries to increase its influence, as Russia is
rougher in his actions. According to Mearsheimer Putin was very clear while
talking with Bush about Ukraine membership in NATO, very transparently
hinted, that if Ukraine would be excepted in NATO, it would cease to exist,
EU expansion is a stalking horse for NATO expansion for Russia
(

Mears

heimer, 2014)
Looking at Western social engineering in Ukraine Russia worries that their
country might be next, so we cannot say Russia could see what was going on
in Ukraine without any actions.
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The worst scenario for Post-soviet region

Future of crisis can be seen by diferent ways:
If the West will continue threaten Russias interests the consequences can be
worst, Russia can divide Ukraine occupying Kharkov, Lugansk, Donetsk,
Odessa and other regions of it. Russias scenario for Ukraine is political
chaos, perpetual riots and poverty, marionette order with their desired
candidate at the head of country.
Except Ukraine Byelorussia is already under the influence of Russia, Kremlin
has plans against Moldova, besides Russian troops that are located in
Transnistria region, Russia has great influence on Moldovas economy and
part of its politics, that can be used against Moldovas European course.
Moldova also have problems with ethnic minorities, as there are pro-Russian
Gagauzians, which have desire to join Russian Federation.
If situation can go so far, Russia can involve in politics of in Baltic States, as
there are pro-Russian political powers in Lithuania and Estonia, nowadays
there is no place for real threat for Baltic States, but in case Russia can make
control under other post-Soviet countries the threat will increase.
In South Caucasus bufer for Russia is Armenia, Russian military forces are
located in Armenia. Russia made Armenian government to refuse signing the
Association Agreement and instead of it become member of Russia trade
organization. (Batashvili, 2014)

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In south Caucasus, the important country for Russia is Georgia, which has the
same problem with Russia as Ukraine and it is hard to find way out. Georgia
will not get used and will not recognize the independence of its regions as its
not prospective from Russia to refuse Abkhazia and South Ossetia being its
part, this seems a vicious circle, where there is no way out. (Batashvili, 2014)
Russian influence is very considerable in central Asia - Kazakhstan, Tajikistan
and Kirgizstan are depended on Russia. Russia has less influence on
Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, but on the way making Eurasian Union, they
could not make serious problem for Russia.
This might be the worst scenario for post-Soviet region. Russia is still the
main challenge for NATO and having the hegemonic desires, wants to
reestablish Soviet Union.

Solution for Ukraine conflict

To be less skeptical about Ukraines fate, several steps must be done as a
solution:
To held conference with all states and decide the Ukraines fate
peacefully;
Support to Ukraines economy;
Government must be represented by respective powers;
The issue of second language must be solved, and people allowed to
choose second language;
The rights of minorities must be considered, they must have equal
rights, representation in parliament;

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 Country must be decentralized, or regions have given huge

autonomies, as there are many minorities, it would be better Ukraine
to exist as an federation;
Neutrality - Ukraine must refuse to be bufer of any country, no NATO,
or Russia must try to make Ukraine under their influence.

Conclusion
After the end of Cold War, situation has never been tensioned between
Russia and Western countries, though the fate of cold war was not decided
by any conference both superpowers had their own sphere of influence that
did not cross each other until EU and NATO decided to expand on the
territory of former Soviet Union. Russia as a successor of Soviet Union always
considered that post-Soviet region is an area of its own influence, especially
Ukraine has crucial role for Russias regional power, as without it Russia
cannot be the Eurasian Empire. Russia cannot stand losing control on it. Also
letting Ukraine being the marionette region under Russias control will be
defeat of EU and for whole Euro Atlantic region. Ukraine has already lost
Crimea; the fate of other post-Soviet countries is depended on how the crisis
will continue. There are diferent scenarios what can happened but for the
better future of world, the best case would be negotiations.
Moreover, I think world politics need to try to decide problematic issues at
the table of negotiation, if this is era of liberalism.

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